Trade Deadline and Future Roster Musings

[Dcash4]

This may only be a written out thought experiment for me, but I figured I would share.

It's likely going to be a quiet deadline, but worth a conversation on a bye week anyway. Here is a look at our 53+ roster. I have the guys listed on the active roster plus some on PS or injured that likely play a role in the off-season, though doesn't mean they are locked on to the squad. Also, skipping ST. Boz and the LS are going to be the same, probably competition at P in 23. 

Offense:

QB: Pickett, Trubisky, Rudolph
RB: Najee, Warren, Snell, McFarland
FB: Watt
WR: Johnson, Pickens, Claypool, Sims, Olszewski, Boykin, Miller*, Austin*
TE: Freiermuth, Gentry, Heyward
T: Chucks, Moore, Davis, Scott
G: Daniels, Dotson, Green
OC: Cole, Hassenauer

Defense:

DT/DE: Heyward, Ogunjobi, Wormley, Leal*, Alualu, Loudermilk, Adams, Davis
OLB: Watt, Highsmith, Reed, Jones
ILB: Jack, Bush, Spillane, Robinson, Allen
CB: Sutton, Wallace, Witherspoon, Maulet, Pierre, Jackson
S: Fitzpatrick, Edmunds, Norwood, Kazee*, Killebrew

Color code:
Player on rookie deal or signed w/ multiple years remaining
Player on rookie deal or signed w/ 2023 being the final year of the deal
Signed through 2023, but extremely cuttable (dead cap less than half of savings)
Contract expires after this season
*Currently on IR

Offensive guys that are on rookie deals or signed multi years: 12 (16 w/cuttable group added)
Defensive guys that are on rookie deals or signed multi years: 8 (13 w/cuttable group added)

Trade Candidates: 

I would look for anyone in those last two groups....and it's...not great. Our DL depth, though, wouldn't be a bad place to start. Gotta think Wormley could pull a late round pick. If Larry O was healthy, maybe a mid-to-late for a rental. We have the depth to sustain a move. If you could sell off Trubisky or Mason, you should. But I doubt there are any takers. 

We don't have a lot of valuable assets available. Claypool should be the most valuable, but I doubt they leave the WR room with Sims being in the top 3. Sutton and Edmunds would both be on the list, but I also could see both of them back. Sutton I would like to see resigned, I think Edmunds is a good player, but I am not sure I want him resigned, at least, not without a third safety that can play C2.

2023 Off-season:

Of those 10 guys that are cuttable this offseason, we would net about $44M in cap space. The nice part here is that some guys on that list, like Jack, are also extension eligible, so we can get savings on them either way. I could see Jack and Wallace getting short extensions, cutting Witherspoon, and re-signing Sutton with those moves savings. 

While the offense has been bad, I am more concerned about that defense looking at the future. Only really 5 guys in bold that get you excited. We need a draft that restocks that side of the ball, specifically at ILB and CB where it's a blank slate looking forward to 2024. 

My .02 is that this offensive line needs a dude and then every draft resource we have needs to restock the defense. OT, ILB, CB, DL would be my top hopes in the drafts top 100. Use FA to sign mid-level vets on an offense that has some talent, but really lacks direction (coaching) and leadership (vets). Use 2023 as the guide to what needs to happen from there, but get the defense back on the right course. 

We are likely to see Khan/Weidl's imprint on this team realllly fast. There's a lot of clay to mold there from cuttable guys to open spaces. I think we are all on the same boat, but if Weidl can push for more draft assets, this would be a great time to do it. We need more good/great bold players and need draft capital to get them. 

And just something I found odd as I was checking Weidl's name spelling.....Dan Rooney Jr is actually listed above him in the front office roster (VP of Player Personnel). Doesn't have to mean anything, but those things are generally listed out in hierarchy of position. I did read good things about him, but just something I took note of. 

[AFF]

Nice breakdown @Dcash4

-Id consider a stud WR in the early 1st…no need for middle round types with DJ/Pickens/Claypool all around…stud or nothing

-I agree with the OL…you have to add someone in FA…I’d overpay for Orlando Brown at LT.

-Defense needs work at all 3 levels…DB is very interesting with Edmunds and Sutton FAs and Witherspoon/Wallace FAs after 2024…I’d resign Sutton/work out extension with Wallace and try to sign another outside CB(or pick one high)…I agree with @warfelg that they need “that guy”

-Cutting Witherspoon/Trubisky/Adams/Gunner  nets you roughly $17 mill in cap room.

[warfelg]

8 minutes ago, AFF said:

Nice breakdown @Dcash4

-Id consider a stud WR in the early 1st…no need for middle round types with DJ/Pickens/Claypool all around…stud or nothing

-I agree with the OL…you have to add someone in FA…I’d overpay for Orlando Brown at LT.

-Defense needs work at all 3 levels…DB is very interesting with Edmunds and Sutton FAs and Witherspoon/Wallace FAs after 2024…I’d resign Sutton/work out extension with Wallace and try to sign another outside CB(or pick one high)…I agree with @warfelg that they need “that guy”

-Cutting Witherspoon/Trubisky/Adams/Gunner  nets you roughly $17 mill in cap room.

I'm not optimistic about Brown. Cincy is "better" and have more cap space and the need.  Raiders and Bears are also teams to watch for.

The biggest issue I have is draft strategy.  Breaking down by last time positions were a 1st round pick:

QB 2022 (Pickett) 2004 (Roethlisberger)

RB 2021 (Harris) 2008 (Mendenhall)

TE 2005 (Miller)

WR 2006 (Holmes), 2000 (Burress), 1999 (Edwards)

OT 1996 (Stephens)

OG 2012 (DeCastro), 1998 (Faneca)

OC 2010 (Pouncey)

DE 2011 (Heyward), 2009 (Hood)

DT 2001 (Hampton)

EDGE 2017 (Watt), 2015 (Dupree), 2013 (Jones)

ILB 2019 (Bush), 2014 (Shazier), 2007 (Timmons)

CB 2016 (Burns) 1997 (Scott)

S 2018 (Edmunds) 2003 (Polamalu)

Basically you have to go back 30 years to see a 1st spent on every position.

[SMashMouthMike]

I wish we wouldn’t have drafted Pickett. He’s not bad, not great. He’s Andy dalton with maybe a little more potential and aggressiveness. But they got him now. 

The browns just showed the league how to wreck the bengals. Hell they wrecked us in similar fashion. Moreover, the Steelers ought to have known or remembered how a young Big Ben had so much success. 
 

We got to build up this running game to ‘very good’ level. That means guards and a center for us historically. Maybe a bruiser right tackle. More tight ends and h backs.

with only 6 picks in this draft(I’ve read) it’s gonna be tough to do. Gotta be willing to trade guys for picks. I’ll believe it when I see it I guess. I’d be willing to jettison clay pool and Johnson for picks. And probably a ton more. Like Noll did. I doubt we do. Every one not named cam heyward, watt, Boswell, our backup RB, Pickens and maybe Pickett maybe Fitzpatrick, probably friermuth, rookie contract guys not going into c2. Listen to offers for the rest.

And flat out cut dudes that you can’t stand to watch. Cutting bush would send the right message imo. 
 

 

 

Edited November 1, 2022 by SMashMouthMike

[MOSteelers56]

Really well thought out stuff @Dcash4

It's hard to argue with anything you or @AFF have said. We need depth and core pieces at just about every position. I do kind of wonder how Moore would be at LG. Sometimes people make the switch seem super difficult, but there's been scores of guys to do it and improve. I do think an interior linemen would be the best to jumpstart the running game. I wouldn't be opposed to backing the Brinks truck to Orlando Brown. 

I'd also look to bring back Sutton and Wallace, not Spoon. I'd probably try and bring back Edmunds too, but I wouldn't break the bank. I'm also interested to see how he looks with Kazee coming back. I'd love to bring in a tone setting, rangy ILB to be the boss of the front 7. We have a deep D-line, but no standouts. I can't imagine Larry O is going to want to come back. Heyward isn't getting any better or younger. I know he's been mentioned but I'd like to see about Payne from Washington. 

[warfelg]

6 minutes ago, SMashMouthMike said:

I wish we wouldn’t have drafted Pickett. He’s not bad, not great.

I will support Kenny because I think he has the ability to be an elite game manager.  I think that Flacco/Foles/Wilson type QB of make a few plays, protect the ball, don't put us in a bad position.

But I agree we shouldn't have taken him more from the lack of talent on the team position.  We weren't set up for a QB to come in.  My posts before the offseason were arguing for us to just spend anywhere but QB, set the team up so if you wanted to the next GM could trade picks for an available QB or to move up in the '23/'24 draft to get the guy they wanted.  Now in a way they are stuck building around Kenny.

I think a 'natural' comparison is the Ravens.  They saw the end of Flacco coming, and instead of forcing a QB pick then building around him, they built a good run game and kept the defense good, then pounced on the available QB when they were there.  KC did that too using Smith as a place holder, then pounced when the QB was there and it's worked out well.

I'm not going to play the what if game because it's too early but man some of the guys I liked in that draft are playing well in Elam, Wyatt, Hill.

[AFF]

33 minutes ago, warfelg said:

I will support Kenny because I think he has the ability to be an elite game manager.  I think that Flacco/Foles/Wilson type QB of make a few plays, protect the ball, don't put us in a bad position.

But I agree we shouldn't have taken him more from the lack of talent on the team position.  We weren't set up for a QB to come in.  My posts before the offseason were arguing for us to just spend anywhere but QB, set the team up so if you wanted to the next GM could trade picks for an available QB or to move up in the '23/'24 draft to get the guy they wanted.  Now in a way they are stuck building around Kenny.

I think a 'natural' comparison is the Ravens.  They saw the end of Flacco coming, and instead of forcing a QB pick then building around him, they built a good run game and kept the defense good, then pounced on the available QB when they were there.  KC did that too using Smith as a place holder, then pounced when the QB was there and it's worked out well.

I'm not going to play the what if game because it's too early but man some of the guys I liked in that draft are playing well in Elam, Wyatt, Hill.

Game managers don’t win Super Bowls save for Foles roughly 7 years ago…every other SB winner in the last 15 years or so had a top 7 QB at worst.

Andy Dalton 2.0 doesn’t get you anywhere…it gets 1st round playoff exits…teams also compound that by signing them to expensive C2$ deals like Carr and Dak at $35-$40 mill per and probably closer to $45-$50 mill by the time Pickett is up for a deal(if he makes it that far).

EDIT…TLDR…if you don’t think your QB is elite or nearly elite…move on.

Edited November 1, 2022 by AFF

[warfelg]

4 minutes ago, AFF said:

Game managers don’t win Super Bowls save for Foles roughly 7 years ago…every other SB winner in the last 15 years or so had a top 7 QB at worst.

Andy Dalton 2.0 doesn’t get you anywhere…it gets 1st round playoff exits…teams also compound that by signing them to expensive C2$ deals like Carr and Dak at $35-$40 mill per and probably closer to $45-$50 mill by the time Pickett is up for a deal(if he makes it that far).

EDIT…TLDR…if you don’t think your QB is elite or nearly elite…move on.

Disagree on the TL;DR.  Should say "don't pay your non-elite QB elite QB money".  Truth is very few QB's can overcome lack of talent around them.  So spending 25% of your cap on someone like that is a mistake.  If you can spend 15% of your cap on someone like that and have that 10% to go elsewhere you can still win.

[AFF]

10 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Disagree on the TL;DR.  Should say "don't pay your non-elite QB elite QB money".  Truth is very few QB's can overcome lack of talent around them.  So spending 25% of your cap on someone like that is a mistake.  If you can spend 15% of your cap on someone like that and have that 10% to go elsewhere you can still win.

Carr/Prescott/Cousins are all between 6th-10th highest paid QBs($35-$40 mill per) with the elite closer to $45-$50 mill per…you’re already at 25% less and look where it gets you.

There are no QBs worth a damn making below $30 mill per save for Brady who took lesser $ habitually  and time seems to have finally caught up to him…and the guys on rookie contracts.

[Dcash4]

1 hour ago, AFF said:

Id consider a stud WR in the early 1st…no need for middle round types with DJ/Pickens/Claypool all around…stud or nothing

For me, that guy would instantly have to come in and be a top 10 player. Anything less would be a miss at that position that deep and drafting as high as we should be with question marks over the total roster. It would also depend on how many holes we fill long term in FA, which I would question as well. I want to use FA as gap fillers and the draft is where you find long term solutions. 

Personally, I wouldn't be that excited about an opportunity for us to finally draft around the top 10 and taking a position we have over drafted with 5 picks in the top 66 over the last 6 years. 

1 hour ago, AFF said:

I’d resign Sutton/work out extension with Wallace and try to sign another outside CB(or pick one high)

This is what I would like to do as well. I think we need to draft a high upside CB this year. The volatility of the position makes me weary of pouring money into it for one player, but top have a top guy be a draft pick and use those 4 years to surround him with Sutton/Wallace type players would be huge. 

22 minutes ago, AFF said:

EDIT…TLDR…if you don’t think your QB is elite or nearly elite…move on.

Which makes me very excited we get early exposure to Kenny this year. I don't want them to wait until year 4 to make a decision. Find your OC this off-season, see where his jump takes him and then consider your options. 

Good enough isn't good enough at that position unless the rest of your team is stacked and your coaching is on point. 

[warfelg]

34 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

Good enough isn't good enough at that position unless the rest of your team is stacked and your coaching is on point. 

Which is why the issue with QB pay isn't the pay they get, it's teams that pay up out of fear of not getting similar production from a pick.

 

Heck look at Seattle right now.  Big drop in QB cap hit but getting the same production.

[AFF]

4 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Which is why the issue with QB pay isn't the pay they get, it's teams that pay up out of fear of not getting similar production from a pick.

 

Heck look at Seattle right now.  Big drop in QB cap hit but getting the same production.

That’s the exception…an outlier…not the norm.

[warfelg]

2 minutes ago, AFF said:

That’s the exception…an outlier…not the norm.

Because there's not enough data on doing it.  Very few teams have treated the QB position as a salary slot and replace the salary rather than pay it.  I'm interested in Philly/Baltimore should they decide what Hurts/Jackson want aren't worth it.  I think in both cases they can find a QB who will give similar production and be fine should they put assets to it (aka - backups don't count here).

[Dcash4]

Seattle becomes really interesting, as do the Giants: Pay Geno/Jones $30M on the tag, sign them to a long term deal still in the $30M range, or let them walk and roll the dice on the draft.

IMO, this is the position you DON'T want to be in. It's pretty clear that the systems are winning, but the QBs are doing their part too. But now you either have to pay $20M+ for guys who aren't the guy  or roll the dice on starting over on someone who could just as easily be worse. 

I always saw Kenny, at best, as a 5 year rookie deal game manager. It just sucks we drafted him when 1 of those years was such crap (to War's point about not being ready). But I just keep imagining we took Pickens with our first round pick and Pickett in the second. I feel much better that way. 

[warfelg]

7 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

Seattle becomes really interesting, as do the Giants: Pay Geno/Jones $30M on the tag, sign them to a long term deal still in the $30M range, or let them walk and roll the dice on the draft.

IMO, this is the position you DON'T want to be in. It's pretty clear that the systems are winning, but the QBs are doing their part too. But now you either have to pay $20M+ for guys who aren't the guy  or roll the dice on starting over on someone who could just as easily be worse. 

I always saw Kenny, at best, as a 5 year rookie deal game manager. It just sucks we drafted him when 1 of those years was such crap (to War's point about not being ready). But I just keep imagining we took Pickens with our first round pick and Pickett in the second. I feel much better that way. 

I think that Seattle is the more interesting one.  Geno (IMO) is clearly not the guy, but everything else is set for success.  They have $46mil in cap space, 2 good/great WR's, an improving OL, stud rookie level contract RB, good young corner, draft picks to spare.  They should be all about moving up for Stroud/Young and use the cap space to shore up the defense.  Stroud/Young just need to be a cog rather than the guy.  If they extend Geno, it better be sub-tag price so they can spend moderately for the defense and use the picks to shore up that spot.

Giants, Jones has played his parts, but it's been more about his legs making up for lack of skill player success.  He's a for sure don't spend on unless he takes under $20mil AAV.  They have $55mil in cap space so they can really fo all out at improving everything but QB if they wanted.  If Jones takes $30mil, they are relying on that athleticism to cover for all of the misgivings.  Their biggest one is to move on from Barkley as paying him won't help at all.

 

As for us, I would treat Kenny as the high floor bridge QB.  Build a team around him, put the limit on what you will pay him as you see what he is. If he takes that, great.  If not you can move into the top 10 to get someone you feel is the guy while you have the team around him ready to go.

Edited November 1, 2022 by warfelg