QB Talk Once Again.... sigh

[Bobby816]

3 minutes ago, Jag68Sid87 said:

I think we are going to give up more than that, but I think we are going to be giving up 2024 and 2025 picks. I definitely think a first-rounder is involved, but with conditions.

I also think part of the delay is the inclusion of other players. I think both teams are adding other players into this deal. Both teams likely missed out on players in free agency this week because of the Rodgers situation, so it is likely that the two sides could be looking to help each other out with their individual team needs.

That is my take.

I think the delay is is saying we’ll give up more but at a cost. Like them paying some of his money.

 

I think we have a couple offers with them not picking up any of his salary. And a couple offers with them picking up some of his salary.

[Rainmaker90]

27 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

I think JD isn’t giving anything up too valuable this draft. After all if we’re going all in this year. We want those 1st couple picks bc they’re likely contributors.

 

So I think we do something like swap 13 for 15, which equals to a late 3rd in value. And our 3rd this year.

Then a conditional pick next year with lots of moving parts. 4th rounder at worst. Goes to a 3rd if we make the playoffs. And can go as high as a 2nd if we make the SB.

 

I could even see a scenario where we might have to give up something in the 2025 draft if AR plays in 2024. I think like a mid late rounder.

 

Jets get AR and pick 15

GB gets pick 13, a 2023 3rd rounder and a conditional pick in 2024 based on our performance (and likely snap count and such for AR) that can range anywhere between a 2nd to 4th.

Fair enough. We’re def on the opposite ends of the spectrum here. It’ll be fun to come together and talk about which part the end result is closer to

[CWood21]

There's a STARK difference between stating facts and making educated opinions.  You'd be wise to understand the difference between the two.

17 hours ago, KimuraGod said:

First fact according to you; 

“If the Jets were going to chase Lamar Jackson, they would have already.  But they aren't and they won't.” 
 

Work in the Jets front office do you?!?

There's a reason why Lamar's market is so cold.  Despite him being the best QB available.  He's not actually available.  I didn't understand why the Ravens would give him the non-exclusive franchise tag at first, but it makes sense now.  The Ravens absolutely do not want to give him a Deshaun Watson deal with fully GTD, so they're letting Lamar Jackson explore his FA market.  When/If a team sign him to a deal that isn't fully GTD, they'll match that offer and gladly bring him back.  If by chance someone does offer him a fully GTD, they'll probably let him walk and collect the FRPs.  The latter seems highly unlikely.  Unless you truly believe that the Ravens aren't going to match a Lamar Jackson offer, he's not available.

17 hours ago, KimuraGod said:

Second; 

“And good luck drafting the AT BEST QB4 in the draft.”

Josh Allen was the 3rd qb took in 2018 and Lamar the 5th. So unless you’re from the future how can you tell me we will get the fourth best qb?! How many qbs were drafted before the Patriots got Brady?!

If you want to bet on statistical anomalies, sure.  Doesn't seem very prudent to hope that you fall into your franchise QB.  Realistically speaking, the success rate of QBs goes down later in the draft.  Could Tanner McKee turn into a franchise QB?  Sure.  That's the same logic that allowed Brandon Weeden and Paxton Lynch to be FRPs.

17 hours ago, KimuraGod said:

Third;

“Right now, the 3 of the first four picks are going to be QBs“

Chance they will be but again unless you’re from the future how can you state these claims like they are facts?! They are your opinion. Massive difference. 

Do you really expect any of the top 4 teams (aside from Arizona) to not take a QB?  Again, this is where the educated opinion comes in.  You think I'm stating facts.  In reality, I'm stating educated opinions.

17 hours ago, KimuraGod said:

- You are completely full of **** mate. No other way of saying it. Unless you work in the Jets FO or a fortune teller you have completely contradicted yourself. Everything you say is subjective and an opinion. Of which like stated earlier is cool to discuss. 
 

But when you push your opinion like it’s the gospel truth it’s so annoying. I keep away from the bollocks you and others have said over in the Gen page but you’re over here know carrying on with the same ****. 
 

And do me a favour with your previous post saying none of the packers fans think you will get multiple first round picks. That’s all I have read from the majority over there on the Rodgers discussion page. It’s been going on for weeks!!
 

Absolute nonsense. I’d rather not get Rodgers if it means you will be sticking your nose in here every week chatting ****e after every game he is a Jet. 

I'm full of it because I don't think that the Jets are going to stumble into a top QB in the draft?  You keep talking about me stating facts.  The reality is that I'm making an educated opinion.  Could the Jets pivot to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens not matc?  Sure, but I'd put the odds as astronomically low.

[fattlipp]

Yeah, there are no other suitors because GB only allowed the Jets to speak to him.  The two teams like each others front offices and have mutual respect.  That goes out the  window if we keep getting low balled, if we open it up communications for Dunn, lots of offers will come in. Might have to allow the NFC in but the Colts and Commanders will definitely be interested, maybe the Pats.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, jetfuel34 said:

I see the trade as this

Jets get Aaron Rodgers

GB gets 3rd pick this year and a 5th round pick next year along with Corey Davis. 

That's a BRUTAL deal for Green Bay.  Last year, Matt Ryan went for a single 3rd round pick (#82).  The Jets' pick this year is #74, so let's call that a wash.  That means you think the difference between Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers is a future 5th round pick and asking the Packers to eat $10M in cap space by taking on Corey Davis.  Remember, the Packers are already pressed up against the cap as it is this year so they'd need to extend/restructure Corey Davis.  If is inclusion is there to create more cap space for the Jets, just go ahead and release him.  Because he's not an asset for Green Bay with tat contract.

[fattlipp]

Agreed

someone will trade to the #3 and draft a QB.

QBs will go 1-4

Hooker might even be a top 10 IMO

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, fattlipp said:

Agreed

someone will trade to the #3 and draft a QB.

QBs will go 1-4

Hooker might even be a top 10 IMO

I'm still pretty confident Arizona is taking Will Anderson at 3, unless someone offers the farm for that pick.

[GangGreen420]

We hear this every single year. And someone always falls.

There will be a QB available at 13

[fattlipp]

5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'm still pretty confident Arizona is taking Will Anderson at 3, unless someone offers the farm for that pick.

Falcons

Richardson for 5 cheap years, or Lamar for 60m a year..if the Ravens can’t match….

Cards can probably still get Carter at 9 and pick up a 2nd and 2024 1st.

Edited March 18, 2023 by fattlipp

[CWood21]

53 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Jets get AR and pick 15

GB gets pick 13, a 2023 3rd rounder and a conditional pick in 2024 based on our performance (and likely snap count and such for AR) that can range anywhere between a 2nd to 4th.

That's still pretty bad value for Green Bay.  Green Bay is almost certainly going to expect more in 2024 if they're not getting a top 64 pick this year.  LIS, Green Bay wants a FRP+ worth of value.  Not necessarily the 13th pick itself, but they want the value of a late FRP and then some.  That's nowhere close to what Green Bay wants.

[fattlipp]

5 minutes ago, GangGreen420 said:

We hear this every single year. And someone always falls.

There will be a QB available at 13

Yeah Hooker probably will be and he’s a pretty good prospect,  though a bit older at 25, but your timeline is now…he may be top 3 QBs right now and will give you Seahawks Geno production next year.  Would be a good option.

[CWood21]

4 minutes ago, fattlipp said:

Falcons

Richardson for 5 cheap years, or Lamar for 60m a year..if the Ravens can’t match….

Cards can probably still get Carter at 9 and pick up a 2nd and 2024 1st.

I'll be honest, I don't see Atlanta in the QB market.

[Bobby816]

19 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

That's a BRUTAL deal for Green Bay.  Last year, Matt Ryan went for a single 3rd round pick (#82).  The Jets' pick this year is #74, so let's call that a wash.  That means you think the difference between Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers is a future 5th round pick and asking the Packers to eat $10M in cap space by taking on Corey Davis.  Remember, the Packers are already pressed up against the cap as it is this year so they'd need to extend/restructure Corey Davis.  If is inclusion is there to create more cap space for the Jets, just go ahead and release him.  Because he's not an asset for Green Bay with tat contract.

I think he goes for more than that too. But let’s look at it in facts. We all know AR > Ryan… but there’s more to it than that.

 

Ryan last off-season was 36. Rodgers is 39. So Ryan was 3 years younger.

Ryan’s 2021 season: 67%, 3,968yds, 20TDs, 12INTs, 90.7 QBR

Rodgers 2022 season: 64%, 3,695, 26TDs, 12INTs, 91.1 QBR

 

Ryan’s contract was WAY more tradeable as well. By a long shot. Hence why IND was able to cut him without paying him anything really.

 

So when you take everything into consideration given what I just posted. AR shouldn’t go for really anything more than Ryan. Coming off similar seasons the year before. AR 3 years older than Ryan was. ARs contract a lot worse. Etc.

 

I think GB fans and some media are factoring just his name and career into it. What AR did in 2010, 2016 and 2020, etc. doesn’t alter his price. Facts are he’s coming off an average year and is 39 with a hefty contract. Value isn’t high on him. We aren’t trading for the 2016 AR. We’re trading for the 2023 AR.

 

[Bobby816]

4 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

That's still pretty bad value for Green Bay.  Green Bay is almost certainly going to expect more in 2024 if they're not getting a top 64 pick this year.  LIS, Green Bay wants a FRP+ worth of value.  Not necessarily the 13th pick itself, but they want the value of a late FRP and then some.  That's nowhere close to what Green Bay wants.

All that together of swapping 1sts, a 3rd this year and a 2nd next year. Is the value of a late 1st though.

[CWood21]

7 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

I think he goes for more than that too. But let’s look at it in facts. We all know AR > Ryan… but there’s more to it than that.

 

Ryan last off-season was 36. Rodgers is 39. So Ryan was 3 years younger.

Ryan’s 2021 season: 67%, 3,968yds, 20TDs, 12INTs, 90.7 QBR

Rodgers 2022 season: 64%, 3,695, 26TDs, 12INTs, 91.1 QBR

There's a BIGGER gap than I think you care to admit.  And I think it's probably more accurate when you widen that to the last 3 years as opposed to just a single year.  Rodgers is a 2x MVP over the last 3 years.  Matt Ryan wasn't even close.  From an on-the-field perspective, Rodgers is exponentially better than Matt Ryan.  As far as age goes, they're both in that retirement window.  I'm not sure Matt Ryan being 36 compared to Aaron Rodgers being 39 really affects their value that much tbh.

11 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Ryan’s contract was WAY more tradeable as well. By a long shot. Hence why IND was able to cut him without paying him anything really.

To me, that's a minor detail.  You're not trading for Rodgers with the idea of trying to escape it quickly.  Is it a factor?  Sure, but you're looking at the on-the-field production.  Not the dead cap that comes at some point in the future.

12 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

So when you take everything into consideration given what I just posted. AR shouldn’t go for really anything more than Ryan. Coming off similar seasons the year before. AR 3 years older than Ryan was. ARs contract a lot worse. Etc.

I'd argue it's borderline criminal how you glossed over the differences between Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers.

11 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

All that together of swapping 1sts, a 3rd this year and a 2nd next year. Is the value of a late 1st though.

Except you didn't devalue that future pick at all.  Plus, you also used the most favorable outcome for Green Bay to justify that.  Depending on how you devalue future picks, that value goes down tremendously.  Personally, I devalue them by the middle of the next round.  So a future FRP is worth ~48th pick, future SRP is worth ~80th pick.  Assuming you value future picks similarly, that'd peg the trade value of Aaron Rodgers as worth the 41st pick.   And that's in a best case scenario.  In a worst case scenario for Green Bay, he's worth roughly the 57th pick.  That's not FRP+ worth of value.