The Most Important Things The Lions Should and Should Not Do In The Off-Season

[Just Want A Title]

The Lions have made a fair amount of progress since Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell were hired.  We aren't a doormat for other teams anymore but we aren't likely to make a deep playoff run either.  This is a crucial off-season in which the Lions will finally exit salary cap hell and be able to sign a higher-end free agent as well as having four picks in the first two rounds of the draft.  I wanted to start a thread about higher-level topics rather than super specific moves that could be made.  That said:

What we should do:

1.  Accurately assess our roster at the end of the season--Brad Holmes and company need to be brutally objective about the players they have so that they can make good decisions as they go into free agency and the draft.  Players putting up good numbers on bad or average football teams aren't necessarily good players.  Charles Harris and Michael Brockers were brought in because our defense was completely bereft of talent.  However, Michael Brockers and Charles Harris are not living up the their contract numbers.  Yes, Charles Harris went on IR but even before he was injured he wasn't playing well at all especially against the run.  Given the improvement in the roster, increased salary cap flexibility and our draft capital we aren't "stuck" with under-performing players at this point.  Moving on from those types of players sends the right message to the players and the fans.

2.  Be selective in free agency--This is tied to the accurate assessment because we have to decide which of our free agents should be brought back and which players should not be re-signed.  For example, we would have a hard time replacing the production of Jamal Williams but if he gets a huge offer from another team it may not make sense to match.  As far as bringing another player into the organization goes, they should probably focus on addressing a need/needs that they may not want to or can't fill in the draft.  The might sign 3-4 mid-tier players or they might go for a splash-signing.  Whatever path they choose should be consistent with their "long-term rebuilding plan".

What we should not do:

1.  Start reaching/gambling on players--Brad Holmes and his staff have done a pretty good job of adding talent to the roster.  Clearly, the processes that have been put in place over the last two years are working.  They should be disciplined enough to trust what they have done and build on that.  Good teams go into decline when they over-draft and over-sign players.  You see guys drafted every year that are drafted much higher than they should be based on their "potential".  You see players who ball-out in their contract year and get a big contract.  Sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't.  The Lions aren't in a position to absorb that kind of risk.  We could do that with a later-round draft pick (maybe our third-round pick at best) or give a prove-it deal for a free agent but using a big chunk of cap-space or a high draft pick on a boom/bust player shouldn't be on the table.

2. Out-smart themselves--As mentioned above the last two drafts have improved our talent level-a lot.  They have hit on UDFAs, early-round picks and late-round picks.  They will evaluate what they have done this year and probably make some adjustments.  However, they can't forget that their goal should be to build a team and organization that wins consistently.  Whatever adjustments they make should be made with that goal in mind.  A good foundation has been created to make that happen but they have to get a lot of things right this off-season if they are going to become a dominant team.  The "all-in" for one or two really great seasons shouldn't be the goal.

 

How does everyone else see things?  Thoughts?

 

 

 

 

[Sllim Pickens]

I think those things are givens in any year to be honest.  I think Harris, Okwara, and Brockers all will be gone, along with Vaitai.  That would clear about 24M in cap space if all cut right away.  If we cut Okwara, Harris and Vaitai after June 1, it would save 36M, but by then many of the free agents are gone.  It would allow for a trade or extensions however at that point and would allow us to pay people this year instead of continuing to push money out to the future years. 

Of our free agents, we do have to be picky.  And try to not overpay given Holmes ability to find talent in the draft and UDFA.  Some of the 1 year deals last year will bite us such as Deshon Elliott, Evan Brown, and Isaiah Buggs.  But Chark probably will be about the same to resign but he already counts 4M against our cap next year anyways.  Decisions will have to be made on those guys for sure and hopefully they don't get too expensive.  I expect another round of 1 or 2 year deals this offseason as a lot of these guys are hungry to prove more and depth wise it allows us flexibility year to year but because of that we may get hit harder in year 2 if we want to keep guys around. 

I think we resign Jamaal Williams. He is having a career year yards and TD wise but nothing special on a YPC impact.  He seems to be a leader in the locker room so that will have some impact as well and is the main reason I think we bring him back.  Given he is old for a RB, he won't get a ton of big money offers on the market.  I think another 2-3 year deal at a small pay increase of about 4 or 5 Mil a year will be the number and well worth it IMO.  Swift likely will be gone after next season or maybe traded this offseason and a new RB drafted, so keeping a trusty backup option is important.  That number is about what Gus Edwards signed for last year, and some other RBs signed for more annually but a lot of that is future non-guaranteed money and they will be cut this year without seeing any of it (Hines and Edmonds).  There also will be some very good RBs on the market in Fournette, Jacobs, Barkley, Kareem Hunt, Rashaad Penny, Miles Sanders, Perine, David Montgomery, Devin Singletary, Tony Pollard, Damien Harris and Alexander Mattison so hopefully the flooded market keeps prices down. 

 

[Just Want A Title]

37 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I think those things are givens in any year to be honest.  I think Harris, Okwara, and Brockers all will be gone, along with Vaitai.  That would clear about 24M in cap space if all cut right away.  If we cut Okwara, Harris and Vaitai after June 1, it would save 36M, but by then many of the free agents are gone.  It would allow for a trade or extensions however at that point and would allow us to pay people this year instead of continuing to push money out to the future years. 

Of our free agents, we do have to be picky.  And try to not overpay given Holmes ability to find talent in the draft and UDFA.  Some of the 1 year deals last year will bite us such as Deshon Elliott, Evan Brown, and Isaiah Buggs.  But Chark probably will be about the same to resign but he already counts 4M against our cap next year anyways.  Decisions will have to be made on those guys for sure and hopefully they don't get too expensive.  I expect another round of 1 or 2 year deals this offseason as a lot of these guys are hungry to prove more and depth wise it allows us flexibility year to year but because of that we may get hit harder in year 2 if we want to keep guys around. 

I think we resign Jamaal Williams. He is having a career year yards and TD wise but nothing special on a YPC impact.  He seems to be a leader in the locker room so that will have some impact as well and is the main reason I think we bring him back.  Given he is old for a RB, he won't get a ton of big money offers on the market.  I think another 2-3 year deal at a small pay increase of about 4 or 5 Mil a year will be the number and well worth it IMO.  Swift likely will be gone after next season or maybe traded this offseason and a new RB drafted, so keeping a trusty backup option is important.  That number is about what Gus Edwards signed for last year, and some other RBs signed for more annually but a lot of that is future non-guaranteed money and they will be cut this year without seeing any of it (Hines and Edmonds).  There also will be some very good RBs on the market in Fournette, Jacobs, Barkley, Kareem Hunt, Rashaad Penny, Miles Sanders, Perine, David Montgomery, Devin Singletary, Tony Pollard, Damien Harris and Alexander Mattison so hopefully the flooded market keeps prices down. 

 

If those things were "givens" every year why have we seen the Lions make significant mistakes in those areas regularly?  Our current win-streak is great and we need to keep our best talent along with what were described as "glue guys" but we can't get drink so much of our own Kool Aid that we become complacent and regress.  I am enjoying this win-streak but want an organization like the Ravens that wins consistently.

[LionArkie]

1 hour ago, Just Want A Title said:

If those things were "givens" every year why have we seen the Lions make significant mistakes in those areas regularly?

Because the execution and evaluation is poor. Do you really think an exec says “hey, I’m going to reach and draft this guy ahead of where he should be picked”?

for example, bob Quinn drafted that useless linebacker in the second round (his name escapes me) because he had a second round value on him. He verified this when he said we took him right before NE was going to take him. We’ve just sucked at evaluating talent this entire millennia. It’s not because we try to reach for players.

[LionArkie]

However, I would like to see them stop going after injured players in the draft early on. That, too your point, is the gamble that makes me uncomfortable.

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, Just Want A Title said:

If those things were "givens" every year why have we seen the Lions make significant mistakes in those areas regularly?  Our current win-streak is great and we need to keep our best talent along with what were described as "glue guys" but we can't get drink so much of our own Kool Aid that we become complacent and regress.  I am enjoying this win-streak but want an organization like the Ravens that wins consistently.

Those things are givens as in they are the most important each year.  I am not saying the Lions staff have done that each year, and thats why we suck but every offseason should be about a true assessment of your guys, smart spending in FA, and hitting on draft picks.  

[Nnivolcm]

I think we're likely to lose Ben Johnson in the off season. We need to find the right person at OC so our offense doesn't fall apart

[Just Want A Title]

2 minutes ago, Nnivolcm said:

I think we're likely to lose Ben Johnson in the off season. We need to find the right person at OC so our offense doesn't fall apart

He has done a good job but on one-year OC jumping to a head coaching position would be a pretty big risk for him and a prospective team. I suspect that serious offers/interviews will start if he puts together two years of successful OC work.  The Lions could help keep him around longer by adding assistant head coach or something.  

Aaron Glenn might be on a similar track.  A full season with the defense performing at a high-level and creating a winning team after a re-build would put him high on the list of a lot of teams.

Dan Campbell has done a good job building a coaching staff to start his tenure.  It will be interesting to see how and who he selects as his tenure progresses.

 

[LionArkie]

11 minutes ago, Nnivolcm said:

I think we're likely to lose Ben Johnson in the off season. We need to find the right person at OC so our offense doesn't fall apart

I think it’s coming, but if I was another team hiring a hc, I would want a coordinator with some success in the playoffs. Since that probably won’t happen this year and he only has 1 year experience, then I could see him with us for another year or two. But it is coming.

[Karnage84]

7 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

I think it’s coming, but if I was another team hiring a hc, I would want a coordinator with some success in the playoffs. Since that probably won’t happen this year and he only has 1 year experience, then I could see him with us for another year or two. But it is coming.

We could arguably see both guys leave next year if we could extrapolate the past 6 weeks of success into a full season. 

[Karnage84]

17 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

We could arguably see both guys leave next year if we could extrapolate the past 6 weeks of success into a full season. 

Not saying they're going 17-0 or anywhere close to it next year. However, if we are strong in the hunt for the division title and a key playoff spot, I could absolutely see Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn being HC targets. 

We could see changes in 2024 of Houston, Atlanta, New Orleans, Arizona, Las Vegas, Washington, Tampa Bay. We could also see a couple spots open up surprisingly - LA Rams (Mcvey goes to TV), New England (BB retires), Kansas City (Reid suffers health issues), Seattle (Carrol retires). 

Assuming that Denver, Carolina, Indianapolis are going to stick with their new hires from 2023. 

[Louis Friend]

7 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

He has done a good job but on one-year OC jumping to a head coaching position would be a pretty big risk for him and a prospective team. I suspect that serious offers/interviews will start if he puts together two years of successful OC work.  The Lions could help keep him around longer by adding assistant head coach or something.  

Duce Staley is already our assistant head coach. 

[LionArkie]

7 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

Dan Campbell has done a good job building a coaching staff to start his tenure.  It will be interesting to see how and who he selects as his tenure progresses.

 

One thing to remember is the DC has already made a few changes since he started. First oc was Anthony lynne. Then DC took over play calling and the offense started thriving. Ben Johnson was drawing up plays at the time. I think DC should be given some credit for this offense and his grooming of Jonson.DC was also under the tutelage of Sean Payton and who knows how much of Payton rubbed off on him.

secondly our secondary became better after pleasant was removed for whatever reason. I pretty much trust DC at this point as he has given me more reason to believe he can either select or produce another gem at the position. Let’s not forget none of these guys were coordinators before coming here. I think DC deserves a lot of credit in this area.

but if he could only develop a clock management coordinator!

[Louis Friend]

18 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

Let’s not forget none of these guys were coordinators before coming here. I think DC deserves a lot of credit in this area.

but if he could only develop a clock management coordinator!

I think we tend to forget this from time to time. These guys are learning on the job as the young players are learning on the job. There are going to be some growing pains. But I like the progress and adjustments I've seen.  From last season to this season. Early season to later in the season. You can see the growth. 

[Just Want A Title]

11 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

Duce Staley is already our assistant head coach. 

Duce Staley has enough experience to get some consideration for positions with other teams.  His time with the Eagles and Lions has established a pretty decent track record.  He could generate some interest from other teams.