Lions vs Jaguars - Which team has the brighter future?

[Dr A W Niloc]

     The disparate approaches taken by Jacksonville and Detroit are a hare versus tortoise story.

     Critics compared Trevor Lawrence's throwing motion to that of a trebuchet but the fact of the matter is that his pocket awareness and improved release time make his O-Line look better than it is.

     The Jags offense did well when its positional Weakness of Schedule numbers were QB:2 RB:4 WR:14 TE:1, less so as these figures devolved into their current QB:29 RB:20 WR:25 TE:17.  

     Like San Francisco, Detroit's more patient approach fortified the offense's supporting cast, reducing the QB's degree of difficulty to a point where even Jared Goff looks good, as Jimmy Garoppolo and, to stretch the point, Brock Purdy do for the 49ers.  One politically incorrect pundit quipped:  "If Jared can't do the job, maybe his grandmother can?"

     With good reason, Jacksonville fans shudder at the thought of life without Lawrence.  By contrast, Lions fans aren't nearly as apprehensive about having to replace Goff.  Yet again, we see the inherent drawback of the "QB First" acquisition strategy:  it lowers the draft capital at the beginning of a rebuild.  

     Defense is the key.  Detroit's doesn't have to be the 1985 Bears;  it just has to avoid being sliced up as often as DonAir Coryell's.

Edited December 13, 2022 by Dr A W Niloc
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[vegas492]

49 minutes ago, BofaDeez54927 said:

Allen has been a let down the last few years and I imagine most JAX fans don't want to give him a high dollar deal. 

Good.  Someone will.  He is on pace for his second highest QB hits number of his career.  I think he's an excellent player.  Could be that he needs a running mate to help free him up a little bit.

My point is pretty simple.  Detroit beats you with their offensive line.  Skill positions are fine, but that line makes the engine go.

I don't watch much of Jacksonville, but their QB looks to have some star power in him.  I think Allen has some of that, too.  And I'll take the QB.

And that shouldn't take anything away from what the Lions are building and doing right now.  They play really hard and that o-line is going to make them competitive.

With Jacksonville, it's sink or swim with Lawrence, which means there should be more highs and lows there.  I just think he's going to break through and take that team next level.

[StatKing]

I would say the Lions but I have no faith in Dan Campbell and Jared Goff is what he is at this point. I can atleast see the trajectory with the Jags, the Lions not so much.

[Miblue]

Both teams have bright futures. The lions are a little closer to that future right now (as was proven on the field two weeks ago).

 

I now have complete trust in Brad Holmes to identify and select real talent throughout the draft every draft and for this coaching staff to develop and get the most out of that talent…..something I can’t say I really saw or believed in with prior lions regimes…..

 

MCDC has proven he can learn and grow from his early mistakes and has everyone buying into the culture he’s established…..again, a feat prior regimes could not accomplish…….

 

Jared Goff is a franchise QB in his prime. Give him healthy weapons and a decent o-line and he can play lights out. There’s no immediate need for an early round QB now or in the very near future……..though if a guy like Bo nix is still available in the mid rounds I wouldn’t mind if they took a flier…..

 

they just need to resign their own guys and continue building around Goff…….’23 is the time to stack up defensive talent and maybe get a guy like Bijan Robinson early in the draft…..swift can’t stay healthy enough to be a bell cow back

 

as far as the jags go, Lawrence is the guy and Pederson is the coach……but I don’t trust anyone in that front office to ID talent throughout the draft as well as Holmes does so their building process might be slower than the lions

[.Buzz]

Baalke from a draft perspective has actually been pretty solid through the two years he’s had control.

2021 - ETN looks like a playmaker long term (although as I’ve said, RB’s that high aren’t my thing). Tyson Campbell has been a top 10 corner in football. Cisco appears to be a long term plug at safety. Walker Little is probably a starting OT either here or somewhere next year, Cam and Jawaan have taken a step and he just hasn’t been able to get on the field due to that. May replace Jawaan if he gets a ton of $ on the open market.

2022 - Walker and Lloyd started strong but have had some recent struggles. Think a lot of this can be attributed to the scheme/coaching, as they finally put Walker in a 3 point stance and he was visibly more disruptive/comfortable. Lloyd had questions in coverage and that’s largely all they’ve asked of him. Fortner is going to be our long term center, has had an impressive rookie campaign. Muma looks like a natural MIKE and although I’m not sure how it works w/ Lloyd/Muma/Oluokun (as far as getting all 3 on the field), this draft looks like it could also have 3+ building blocks long term too.

Hes pretty much punted on every pick after round 3-4 though, which hasn’t been ideal. Haven’t heard of any issues behind the scenes, but we’ll see.

[sammymvpknight]

You have to take a top 5 QB. Lawrence is definitely trending in that direction, especially after receiving upgrades that are coming. The best teams in the NFL typically have the best QBs, so that’s where I’m putting my money. 

[kingseanjohn]

2 hours ago, vegas492 said:

To me?  Not really.  Swift is good when he plays and Williams hasn't played yet.  ARSB gets the job done nicely and I can see him being "flashy".

But I feel like the Lions win and are competitive due to their o-line and that is not flashy.  In fact, their o-line is nasty in a great way.  

Jacksonville with Lawrence and Allen are more flashy on the higher end at two premium positions.

Maybe the Lions get there with Hutch on the EDGE.

 

He played in his first game this past weekend. 2 targets 1 catch 41yds TD. Not sure on the snap count though. 

[Soko]

2 hours ago, vegas492 said:

Jacksonville with Lawrence and Allen are more flashy on the higher end at two premium positions.

Josh Allen? As a 4th year pro he’s got a few more hurries/pressures than rookie Hutch, but Hutch has more sacks. Not sure how, in terms of flashiness, you’d say the Lions “maybe” have that in Hutchinson but the Jags do have it in Allen. He’s decent but incredibly far from anything special. Him and Deatrich Wise are one hurry apart, +7 pressures for Allen, and +2.5 sacks for Wise. You can find guys like that.

[Jameson_Neat]

4 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Josh Allen? As a 4th year pro he’s got a few more hurries/pressures than rookie Hutch, but Hutch has more sacks. Not sure how, in terms of flashiness, you’d say the Lions “maybe” have that in Hutchinson but the Jags do have it in Allen. He’s decent but incredibly far from anything special. Him and Deatrich Wise are one hurry apart, +7 pressures for Allen, and +2.5 sacks for Wise. You can find guys like that.

Fans from opposing teams fall in love with the talent and gloss over what the players have actually done in the league. It was the same with Hock. Good players, but not the straw that stirs the drink and definitely not worth that incoming enormous second contract. 

[.Buzz]

6 minutes ago, BofaDeez54927 said:

Fans from opposing teams fall in love with the talent and gloss over what the players have actually done in the league. It was the same with Hock. Good players, but not the straw that stirs the drink and definitely not worth that incoming enormous second contract. 

Very much so. He hasn’t had a ton of help since his rookie year and we have issues with our interior rush which doesn’t help, but he isn’t that alpha edge most expected when he came into the league.

Maybe if/when Travon becomes more consistent he gets more production, but it’s a running joke as far as his pressure numbers at this point. Most games he’s been a ghost this season. Maybe there’s an underlying injury or something, but this is a $ year for him and he hasn’t taken that step.

[vegas492]

36 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Josh Allen? As a 4th year pro he’s got a few more hurries/pressures than rookie Hutch, but Hutch has more sacks. Not sure how, in terms of flashiness, you’d say the Lions “maybe” have that in Hutchinson but the Jags do have it in Allen. He’s decent but incredibly far from anything special. Him and Deatrich Wise are one hurry apart, +7 pressures for Allen, and +2.5 sacks for Wise. You can find guys like that.

Allen had 10.5 sacks as a rookie.

Hutch has 7.  

Not even going deep into this, concerning pressures, because I think Allen had his 10.5 sack year without having a ton of pressures.  Not sure if that is the case for Hutch or not.

Guess I look at this way.  Rookies can get sacks because they are getting more 1:1's.  Once an EDGE is established, they draw more attention from the o-line.

Josh Allen is more or less established.  Hutch is the rook.

Then again, I freely admit to not watching many Jags or Lions games to know for sure how the o-line is blocking those two players.  Just a hunch on my part.

[Soko]

17 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Allen had 10.5 sacks as a rookie.

Hutch has 7.  

And Allen hasn’t come close to that since. He’s trended down since then, not up. 

17 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Guess I look at this way.  Rookies can get sacks because they are getting more 1:1's.  Once an EDGE is established, they draw more attention from the o-line.

Aidan Hutchinson is only behind Myles Garrett in double team rate as of the beginning of December.

[.Buzz]

23 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

And Allen hasn’t come close to that since. He’s trended down since then, not up. 

Aidan Hutchinson is only behind Myles Garrett in double team rate as of the beginning of December.

Think we can still take a breath on Hutch thus far…

Below average win rate along with Travon and Karlaftis and I’ve seen most of his sacks this year (although the one this past week was impressive). He had one coming unblocked off the edge last week against JAX.

(I think Hutch will be good, fwiw)

[Soko]

4 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Think we can still take a breath on Hutch thus far…

Below average win rate (along with Travon and Karlaftis) and I’ve seen most of his sacks this year (although the one this past week was impressive). He had one coming unblocked off the edge last week against JAX.

What do you mean? I brought it up because the other poster specifically brought up double-teams (or technically, single-teams). 

Low win rate but high(er) sacks would lead me to think it’s effort + coverage with him, but I also don’t imagine Detroit is buying tons of time with their coverage either lol.

[.Buzz]

1 minute ago, Yin-Yang said:

What do you mean? I brought it up because the other poster specifically brought up double-teams (or technically, single-teams). 

Low win rate but high(er) sacks would lead me to think it’s effort + coverage with him, but I also don’t imagine Detroit is buying tons of time with their coverage either lol.

Yeah I’m not disagreeing with your response, more so just an overarching response that I need to see more from Hutch. Feel like the sack numbers are a bit skewed from what I’ve seen from him this year is all.