Week 18 - race to the bottom of the division! @ Colts

[ET80]

59 minutes ago, Texansfan713 said:

Our best hope is Stroud killing the combine and pro day like ET said.  That would do wonders for us at pick 2.   Picking Will Anderson wouldnt be the end of the world, but I am still hoping the Bears stay put at 1 and take him so we can get Bryce.

Will Anderson showing up at 255 lbs, 7% body fat and posting unheard of numbers in the combine is the best bet for everyone involved - then the Texans get to choose one of the top two guys vs having the situation dictated to them.

Chicago is in dire need of picks (they traded away a 2nd for Chase Claypool) so they’re going to move down. Question is, who is going to be worth moving UP for - I don’t think There’s a consensus #1 at QB, each guy has a flaw that gives teams a pause.

But - this team once unloaded the farm for Khalil Mack, so here’s hoping they’ll do something similar for Anderson.

[Texansfan713]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Will Anderson showing up at 255 lbs, 7% body fat and posting unheard of numbers in the combine is the best bet for everyone involved - then the Texans get to choose one of the top two guys vs having the situation dictated to them.

Chicago is in dire need of picks (they traded away a 2nd for Chase Claypool) so they’re going to move down. Question is, who is going to be worth moving UP for - I don’t think There’s a consensus #1 at QB, each guy has a flaw that gives teams a pause.

But - this team once unloaded the farm for Khalil Mack, so here’s hoping they’ll do something similar for Anderson.

To be fair, they do have a 2nd from the Ravens.  A late 2nd rounder but still. 

[ET80]

3 minutes ago, Texansfan713 said:

To be fair, they do have a 2nd from the Ravens.  A late 2nd rounder but still. 

Ah, you’re right. Forgot about Roquan.

[Blaze]

2 hours ago, ET80 said:

Will Anderson showing up at 255 lbs, 7% body fat and posting unheard of numbers in the combine is the best bet for everyone involved - then the Texans get to choose one of the top two guys vs having the situation dictated to them.

Chicago is in dire need of picks (they traded away a 2nd for Chase Claypool) so they’re going to move down. Question is, who is going to be worth moving UP for - I don’t think There’s a consensus #1 at QB, each guy has a flaw that gives teams a pause.

But - this team once unloaded the farm for Khalil Mack, so here’s hoping they’ll do something similar for Anderson.

I dont see anyone moving up. What team has the resources surrounding the QB and just needs the QB as the final piece? Indy stinks, maybe Seattle could do it. But at 5, Chicago may miss the top two defenders. Alot of what Chicago does, depends on everyone else and the Texans may luck up because of it with Bryce if that's who they want. 

[ET80]

13 minutes ago, Blaze said:

I dont see anyone moving up. What team has the resources surrounding the QB and just needs the QB as the final piece? Indy stinks, maybe Seattle could do it. But at 5, Chicago may miss the top two defenders. Alot of what Chicago does, depends on everyone else and the Texans may luck up because of it with Bryce if that's who they want. 

I’ll say this - Indy is an obvious choice with their pounding run game and WR unit built around Michael Pittman Jr. This being said - the resources needed to move from 5 to 1 to secure a QB would limit the rest of the roster, which is in dire need of an overhaul.

Long/short of it - we may lose out on the QB we want, but Indy moving to the top spot would disrupt their team pretty badly. They’d have to wait a few years to turn it into something - and that’s assuming the QB they selected works out.

A darkhorse team to be mindful of - Carolina. They have an underrated WR group with DJ Moore, Terrance Marshall Jr and Shi Smith, they have a moderate OL with LT Ikey Ekwonu protecting the blindside, and they have a really good defense with Jaycee Horn,  Jeremy Chinn, Shaq Thompson, Derrick Brown and Brian Burns putting in good work.

They booked extra assets in the Christian McCaffery trade… and David Tepper was hyper-aggressive in pursuing Deshaun Watson, losing out to Cleveland in the final minutes of that effort (eventually settling on Baker Mayfield as a consolation prize). Combine all of this with a very weak division (that will probably be missing Tom Brady next season) and Carolina only has upside in getting a QB who proves to be the best of the bunch… Sam Darnold hasn’t been good enough to give a 3rd season to, so I would not be surprised at all if Carolina made a big move to square up to 1.1 to pair up with their new incoming regime.

[Pastor Dillon]

A lot of this won't matter until we figure out who the new coach is. 

Demeco Ryans might want to bring Jimmy G in and go defense in the draft

Kellen Moore might want a QB at 1 and be willing to trade up 

Are we gonna run a 3-4 or a 4-3, those would really matter as well

If we are not taking a QB, I would almost 100% try and trade back and get extra picks.

 

Also it depends on the view from the top of our franchise. Is it crazy to say that we could have been right there with the titans and Jags if we had good QB play? 

our offense is devoid of a QB, its not devoid of talent. We have a solid offensive line, a great young back, we have some young WRs. Some might look at our offense and say that a vet QB and adding a free agent WR will be good enough. Focus on defense in the draft. Geno Smith, Jimmy G, or even in the off chance it could work out, Lamar Jackson...

looks to be decided before we really have an idea of who will be pick number 2

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, Blaze said:

I dont see anyone moving up. What team has the resources surrounding the QB and just needs the QB as the final piece? Indy stinks, maybe Seattle could do it. But at 5, Chicago may miss the top two defenders. Alot of what Chicago does, depends on everyone else and the Texans may luck up because of it with Bryce if that's who they want. 

Teams don't have to wait until they are loaded to draft QB.   Nobody wanted to draft QB last year because class wasn't good so they all punted to this year.   You can't do that every year.  

Who may want to draft a QB this year?

Indy, Seahawks, Texans, Raiders, Falcons, Panthers, Saints, Titans, Jets, Commanders, Lions and Falcons all arguably need a QB.  

Rodgers and Brady may retire as well.   

Teams still have to fall in love with one of these guys though.   Sucks there isn't an Elway, P. Manning, Lawrence or Luck in this class.

But I think odds are good we will find at least one trade partner come March.  

 

[ET80]

44 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Teams still have to fall in love with one of these guys though.   Sucks there isn't an Elway, P. Manning, Lawrence or Luck in this class.

THIS is where I think it gets tricky - there’s not definitive #1 QB that has to be had.

This feels a lot like 2018, when people had varying opinions on Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson; No two people had the exact same board when it came to the QBs and it was really dependent on what you wanted to do as a team.

Much like 2018, the order of these guys is going to come down to the workouts - someone can separate themselves in that space, then we can see a team seeing the risk/reward for trading up for such a pick.

44 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

But I think odds are good we will find at least one trade partner come March.  

I think we really need to think about how frequently teams trade up to 1.1 to get their guy. The last time that happened was in 2016, when the Rams gave up a bunch of assets to Tennessee to draft Jared Goff; prior to that, we had Atlanta trading up for Michael Vick in 2001. (Eli Manning in 2005 is a unique situation, as Manning said he wouldn’t sign with San Diego if he was drafted at 1.1; Had he been like any other player, he’d probably wouldn’t have been traded). Since 2000, these are the only instances where the #1 pick was traded.

So, there are similarities to when Tennessee traded down and Chicago‘s current pick - specifically, a highly touted QB already in the building (Marcus Mariota and Justin Fields, respectively). Los Angeles was coming off of a 7-9 season with Jeff Fisher, who was sort of in cycle of 7-9 to 8-8 seasons, churning with no real improvement either way - many felt this move was to get that arbitrary “three years to let a QB develop” grace period (he didn’t get it, was fired mid season). I don’t know if there’s a team that would give up the assets needed to make such a move (and a LOT of assets were given up - 1st/2nd/2nd/4th in 2016, 1st/3rd in 2017).

Furthermore - this was before we started seeing vet QB migrations like we are now; Why trade up for that when there’s the possibility an established guy is now available? If I’m one of the teams you listed - am I giving these assets to the Bears for an unknown commodity or am I giving the Baltimore Ravens a call about Lamar Jackson? Am I giving up all of that for a QB that’s never taken an NFL snap, or giving that up to bring in Aaron Rodgers (who is still playing at a pretty high level) or Jordan Love (who isn’t going for nearly the return)? Is the Dak Prescott relationship in good standing with another 1st round loss, or does Jerruh blow it up and get a sweetheart package like the Seahawks/Lions/Texans? There are a ton of variables we have yet to even flesh out, but even before that - trading 1.1 is a VERY hard thing to do. Texans couldn’t trade their 1.1 in both 2006 and 2014, eventually picking Mario Williams and Jadevion Clowney.

Yeah, the Texans would love to get a smorgashboard of picks in those years, but sometimes… nobody wants to move up. It takes two to tango, yknow?