Free Agency

[Superduperman]

3 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

Some insight into Brad Holmes with free agency.  I doubt he will spend big but he will continue to look for value signings.

Of course he will and that's no big, unique insight, BUT with the amount of cap space they have and the fact they're actually close to contender status, I like the chances of them going after at least one and perhaps even a couple of top guys. Add in the fact that the Lions are finally a decent destination. 

[Sllim Pickens]

10 hours ago, Superduperman said:

Of course he will and that's no big, unique insight, BUT with the amount of cap space they have and the fact they're actually close to contender status, I like the chances of them going after at least one and perhaps even a couple of top guys. Add in the fact that the Lions are finally a decent destination. 

I wouldn't be shocked if we used some draft capital to make some moves as well for guys who have or need bigger contracts.  Jalen Ramsey could be a target if we want to move a top pick or maybe Shaq Griffin who overpaid but a solid option on the last year of a contract and would be cheap pick wise and would keep us in play for a comp pick. Or guys like Cam Jordan or Jerry Hughes who are potential cut candidates from cap strapped teams. 

The thing I would like about that is that is it doesn't impact our cap long term if we go on a spending spree like Jacksonville did last year.  It adds talent to the roster but the foundation is still the rookies and improving through the draft.  I expect the budget signings and shorter deals although I would prefer more 2 year deals than 1 year deals.  It seems that Holmes has a great eye for budget talent like Elliot, Buggs, Hughes, Chark when healthy and would be smarter to try and get them for two years instead of one so we can build with them a little.  

 

[Sllim Pickens]

Here are a few guys I wouldn't mind looking at based on Sportracs projected market value, even though some of them seem off:

Sheldon Rankins - 7.3M per year projected (3 year 21-24M deal)
Shy Tuttle - 6.3M per year (3 year 17-19M deal)
Greg Gaines - 7.7M per year (I feel that is high but the connection with Holmes is interesting. I would say a 3 year 15M deal)
Devin Bush - 3M per year(Only 24 and struggled in Pitt but still has upside.  Maybe a 2 year 6-7M deal. A better version of Jarrad Davis)
Tremaine Edmunds - 11M per year (This would be a bigger priced FA but a big upgrade at a position of need.  Maybe a 3 year 30-35M deal)
Germaine Pratt - 7.2M per year (A one year wonder so makes me nervous but at the right price would be a potential upgrade at LB.  Have to limit the guaranteed future money here)
Bobby Okereke - 2.3M per year (I think he will get more than Sportracs projections so more like a 4 year 30-35M deal)
Jamel Dean - 8.7M per year (again I think this may be low, his lowest PFF season was a 74.5 in 4 seasons.  A 4 year 40M deal seems about right and would help our CBs for sure)
Clelin Ferrell - No projected MV (Should be cheap as a failed first round pick but worth trying to tap the upside on a cheap 1 or 2 year deal for 2M each)
Brandon Graham - 3.3M per year (That is super low given the year he had but he is also 35 years old.  A 1 or 2 year at 7-10 per would be solid if he wants to come home to wrap up his career)
Marcus Davenport - 23.2M per year (I wouldn't pay him that much but if he wants to sign for 15M per he could be our big name signing and play opposite Hutch)
Nate Davis - 7.4M per year (If we cut Vaitai and are unable to bring Brown back reasonably, this would be a great option to fill the hole at RG.  I think we will draft someone as depth at least but he could step in and be an upgrade to what we have had but isnt elite)
Paris Campbell - 2.5M per year (If we can't afford Chark, this would be a solid low cost option on a relatively young player who can play behind Jamo)
Equanimeous St Brown - No Projected MV (Would be a solid depth WR for cheap if we move on from Chark/Reynolds/Cephus.  Giving ARSB a chance to play with his brother and earn some points with him to be able to resign in the future)

[Just Want A Title]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Here are a few guys I wouldn't mind looking at based on Sportracs projected market value, even though some of them seem off:

Sheldon Rankins - 7.3M per year projected (3 year 21-24M deal)
Shy Tuttle - 6.3M per year (3 year 17-19M deal)
Greg Gaines - 7.7M per year (I feel that is high but the connection with Holmes is interesting. I would say a 3 year 15M deal)
Devin Bush - 3M per year(Only 24 and struggled in Pitt but still has upside.  Maybe a 2 year 6-7M deal. A better version of Jarrad Davis)
Tremaine Edmunds - 11M per year (This would be a bigger priced FA but a big upgrade at a position of need.  Maybe a 3 year 30-35M deal)
Germaine Pratt - 7.2M per year (A one year wonder so makes me nervous but at the right price would be a potential upgrade at LB.  Have to limit the guaranteed future money here)
Bobby Okereke - 2.3M per year (I think he will get more than Sportracs projections so more like a 4 year 30-35M deal)
Jamel Dean - 8.7M per year (again I think this may be low, his lowest PFF season was a 74.5 in 4 seasons.  A 4 year 40M deal seems about right and would help our CBs for sure)
Clelin Ferrell - No projected MV (Should be cheap as a failed first round pick but worth trying to tap the upside on a cheap 1 or 2 year deal for 2M each)
Brandon Graham - 3.3M per year (That is super low given the year he had but he is also 35 years old.  A 1 or 2 year at 7-10 per would be solid if he wants to come home to wrap up his career)
Marcus Davenport - 23.2M per year (I wouldn't pay him that much but if he wants to sign for 15M per he could be our big name signing and play opposite Hutch)
Nate Davis - 7.4M per year (If we cut Vaitai and are unable to bring Brown back reasonably, this would be a great option to fill the hole at RG.  I think we will draft someone as depth at least but he could step in and be an upgrade to what we have had but isnt elite)
Paris Campbell - 2.5M per year (If we can't afford Chark, this would be a solid low cost option on a relatively young player who can play behind Jamo)
Equanimeous St Brown - No Projected MV (Would be a solid depth WR for cheap if we move on from Chark/Reynolds/Cephus.  Giving ARSB a chance to play with his brother and earn some points with him to be able to resign in the future)

We should sign Nate Davis even if we re-sign Evan Brown.  Evan Brown is a really good back-up G/C but not a high-level starter.

[Sllim Pickens]

36 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

We should sign Nate Davis even if we re-sign Evan Brown.  Evan Brown is a really good back-up G/C but not a high-level starter.

Nate Davis played 200 more snaps last year and 100 less this year than Brown so they play a similar number of snaps.  Their PFF grade is within 2 points each year.  Brown has the ability to play C which is big, especially with Ragnow's injuries the last couple of years.  I think Davis is solid, and would be a solid option but I do not think he is much of an upgrade if any to Brown.  Just off pure numbers instead of PFF, Brown allowed 1 sack in 2021 and 2 in 2022.  Davis allowed 5 in 2021 and 3 in 2022.  Davis may be a better run blocker, but Brown is good enough and better in pass protection.  So I would say sign one or the other and then draft someone as depth since we don't want that much tied up in RG/C.  

[Just Want A Title]

10 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Nate Davis played 200 more snaps last year and 100 less this year than Brown so they play a similar number of snaps.  Their PFF grade is within 2 points each year.  Brown has the ability to play C which is big, especially with Ragnow's injuries the last couple of years.  I think Davis is solid, and would be a solid option but I do not think he is much of an upgrade if any to Brown.  Just off pure numbers instead of PFF, Brown allowed 1 sack in 2021 and 2 in 2022.  Davis allowed 5 in 2021 and 3 in 2022.  Davis may be a better run blocker, but Brown is good enough and better in pass protection.  So I would say sign one or the other and then draft someone as depth since we don't want that much tied up in RG/C.  

Nate Davis has been a legit starter since his rookie season in a highly effective rushing attack.  The fact that he can play G or C doesn't mean you want him starting for extending periods.   Putting a proven starter next to Penei Sewell will help the entire line.  Nate Davis may have played less snaps this year but that was probably because the Tennessee offense wasn't great.  Given the continue food issues with Frank Ragnow, we need to have someone like Evan Brown to play C along with someone like Nate Davis.

Also, this does not seem to be a strong interior line class.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviNa01.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowEv00.htm

[Sllim Pickens]

5 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Nate Davis has been a legit starter since his rookie season in a highly effective rushing attack.  The fact that he can play G or C doesn't mean you want him starting for extending periods.   Putting a proven starter next to Penei Sewell will help the entire line.  Nate Davis may have played less snaps this year but that was probably because the Tennessee offense wasn't great.  Given the continue food issues with Frank Ragnow, we need to have someone like Evan Brown to play C along with someone like Nate Davis.

Also, this does not seem to be a strong interior line class.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviNa01.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowEv00.htm

Nate Davis was awful as a starter his rookie year.  7 sacks and 8 penalties in 768 snaps is not good (also a 40 PFF grade for 2019).  He had a much better 2020 but still only a 69 PFF grade and 5 penalties.  His strengths are run blocking though, and it helps to have Derrick Henry to block for.  He has been a slightly above average starter for three years.  Thats good but switching teams, systems, etc doesn't always go well so having someone who grades similarly in our system already, is a safer bet IMO.  

Brown is versatile and has played all over but started more games than Davis this year and again, was better against pass rushers and slightly worse in run blocking.  When Brown played C last year he was ranked in the top 10 of Cs in the league in pass blocking and pass block win rate.  He put in starter level play the last two years so its not like Vaitai who started 4 games in the two years combined before getting here.  He is a viable starter at OC or RG, and will be paid as one from someone. 

[Just Want A Title]

11 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Nate Davis was awful as a starter his rookie year.  7 sacks and 8 penalties in 768 snaps is not good (also a 40 PFF grade for 2019).  He had a much better 2020 but still only a 69 PFF grade and 5 penalties.  His strengths are run blocking though, and it helps to have Derrick Henry to block for.  He has been a slightly above average starter for three years.  Thats good but switching teams, systems, etc doesn't always go well so having someone who grades similarly in our system already, is a safer bet IMO.  

Brown is versatile and has played all over but started more games than Davis this year and again, was better against pass rushers and slightly worse in run blocking.  When Brown played C last year he was ranked in the top 10 of Cs in the league in pass blocking and pass block win rate.  He put in starter level play the last two years so its not like Vaitai who started 4 games in the two years combined before getting here.  He is a viable starter at OC or RG, and will be paid as one from someone. 

Not sure where your stats are coming from.  

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/playerstats.asp?id=31914

Regular Season Stats

Career Offensive Line Stats
Year	Team	G	GS	Pen	Yds	False Start	Holding	Sacks Allwd	Yds
2019	Ten	13	12	7	48	5	1	4.00	27.00
2020	Ten	16	16	6	45	3	3	0.50	2.00
2021	Ten	14	14	3	30	0	3	2.00	18.00
2022	Ten	12	12	2	15	0	1	2.00	14.00
Totals		55	54	18	138	8	8	8.50	61.00

 

Postseason Stats

Career Offensive Line Stats
Year	Team	G	GS	Pen	Yds	False Start	Holding	Sacks Allwd	Yds
2019	Ten	3	3	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
2020	Ten	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
2021	Ten	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
Totals		5	5	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00

 

[Sllim Pickens]

55 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Not sure where your stats are coming from.  

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/playerstats.asp?id=31914

Regular Season Stats

Career Offensive Line Stats
Year	Team	G	GS	Pen	Yds	False Start	Holding	Sacks Allwd	Yds
2019	Ten	13	12	7	48	5	1	4.00	27.00
2020	Ten	16	16	6	45	3	3	0.50	2.00
2021	Ten	14	14	3	30	0	3	2.00	18.00
2022	Ten	12	12	2	15	0	1	2.00	14.00
Totals		55	54	18	138	8	8	8.50	61.00

 

Postseason Stats

Career Offensive Line Stats
Year	Team	G	GS	Pen	Yds	False Start	Holding	Sacks Allwd	Yds
2019	Ten	3	3	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
2020	Ten	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
2021	Ten	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
Totals		5	5	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00

 

https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/nate-davis/46808

You can click the drop down to go through the years.  

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviNa01.htm

This has penalties but leaves off 2021 for some reason and doesn't track sacks allowed.

 

 None of the numbers line up for penalties between the three sites so its a little iffy on how much weight to put into any of them.  The sacks allowed is a judgement call most likely since thats not a true stat kept by many sites that I can find. 

[General Tso]

I think we should let Chark go. Not because I dislike him, but Jamo makes him expendable and he's going to want the bag but we have other needs.

[Just Want A Title]

35 minutes ago, General Tso said:

I think we should let Chark go. Not because I dislike him, but Jamo makes him expendable and he's going to want the bag but we have other needs.

Jameson Williams could be a really great player but right now he is has more untapped potential than game tape.  Chark looked great after he got healthy but that was only for the latter part of the season.  He may be inclined to put together a full season before moving on.  The Lions may not want to take the risk of losing him while Jameson Williams is still developing.

[General Tso]

I would expect a top 15 pick a year removed from surgery makes it an impact. If London, Olave, and Wilson made impacts right away, you have to expect that from Jamo. 

We had 5 receivers that deserved snaps, but there are only so many snaps that can go around.

[Just Want A Title]

28 minutes ago, General Tso said:

I would expect a top 15 pick a year removed from surgery makes it an impact. If London, Olave, and Wilson made impacts right away, you have to expect that from Jamo. 

We had 5 receivers that deserved snaps, but there are only so many snaps that can go around.

Picture this:  The Lions running a 3-WR, 1 TE, 1 RB set with DJ Chark, Jameson Williams and Amon Ra St Brown with Jameson Williams having a full grasp of the offense.  Then picture this with the Lions executing both run plays and passing plays to all levels of the field with the same formation.  Scary and pretty hard to defend.

[General Tso]

I mean, we saw that, so I understand lol. But you gotta make tough decisions with the cap and Chark will want a raise.

[Just Want A Title]

5 minutes ago, General Tso said:

I mean, we saw that, so I understand lol. But you gotta make tough decisions with the cap and Chark will want a raise.

What we saw was a version of Jameson Williams, who has tremendous speed and under-rated elusiveness, play limited snaps a run a limited route-tree.  We have not seen an offense with with Jameson Williams fulling integrated with a high level of understanding.  He hasn't had a 100-yard receiving game yet.  He hasn't had a multiple TD game yet.  He hasn't had a game with more than one reception.  The Lions shouldn't hand him the WR#1 job until he earns it on the field.  I hate to say this but what happens if he is to the Lions what Jerry Jeudy has been to the Broncos?