kgarrett12486 Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 Just now, StLunatic88 said: If thats all it took for a Heart of the Order 3B bat AND a Top of the Rotation Starter, teams would be jumping all over that (Namely the Yankees). Id say you are severely underestimating the value of that Archer contract. My first blush guess would think it starts with Kelly, Flaherty, Piscotty. And still needs another arm and bat. No doubt, I just meant those are probably your 3 headliners. It would definitely take more than just those 3 alone, but I think we'd get more into the middle tier prospects of our organization after that, not guys inside the top 8... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 1 minute ago, kgarrett12486 said: No doubt, I just meant those are probably your 3 headliners. It would definitely take more than just those 3 alone, but I think we'd get more into the middle tier prospects of our organization after that, not guys inside the top 8... I dont know about that. When I say another arm and another bat, Im talking adding in Wong/O'Neill and Hudson/Alcantara Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted September 27, 2017 Author Share Posted September 27, 2017 7 hours ago, StLunatic88 said: That would be the top of my list for wants this offseason. And honestly I to me Piscotty/Wong/Flaherty are not show stoppers for either one of those guys. When we start talking Carson Kelly, I hold him in very high regard, but if Mo/Matheny dont have the balls to tell Yadi that he isnt the every day Catcher for the next 3 years, then why hang onto him? Last night I was thinking about both the Jays and the Rays. Do you think we could swing a package to fill both our needs with one of those teams? I feel like most packages we would put together seprately would be too much for just Donaldson and Archer in 2 deals, but if we add those packages together could we swing a Donaldson/Stroman or Archer/Longoria deal? Let me start off by saying that I think there is very little chance the Rays are even willing to listen on Archer. He's got a very reasonable 4 years, $33.7M left on his deal assuming you pick up his two options. I'd imagine they could move him two years from now and still receive a pretty significant haul. Right now, your "main" trading pieces are Stephen Piscotty, Jack Flaherty, Kolten Wong, and Carson Kelly. Can a deal be had for both without giving up Kelly? I don't think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted September 27, 2017 Author Share Posted September 27, 2017 3 hours ago, StLunatic88 said: So hypothetically, what would you be willing to give up if the package were Chris Archer/Evan Longoria? I can't even imagine what it'd take. My guess is it's Kelly/Flaherty/Piscotty/Wong to get in the door on that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted September 28, 2017 Author Share Posted September 28, 2017 Barring nothing short of a miracle, our season is over. One win by the Rockies or a loss by the Cardinals and they're officially eliminated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 15 hours ago, CWood21 said: I can't even imagine what it'd take. My guess is it's Kelly/Flaherty/Piscotty/Wong to get in the door on that one. In the door? Really? You think basically 4 Major League ready starters would only get us in the door? I know it would cost a pretty penny, but I think you are undervaluing what the value of that Package really represents. It may not be the exact package that would get the deal done (they have some good OF right now so Piscotty doesnt represent a major upgrade anywhere) but the value is surely there to be in serious talks. Because when you talk about them as a package, Longoria's contract through his age 37 season starts to tip the value back the other way of Archer's great contract for the next 4 years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted September 28, 2017 Author Share Posted September 28, 2017 2 hours ago, StLunatic88 said: In the door? Really? You think basically 4 Major League ready starters would only get us in the door? I know it would cost a pretty penny, but I think you are undervaluing what the value of that Package really represents. It may not be the exact package that would get the deal done (they have some good OF right now so Piscotty doesnt represent a major upgrade anywhere) but the value is surely there to be in serious talks. Because when you talk about them as a package, Longoria's contract through his age 37 season starts to tip the value back the other way of Archer's great contract for the next 4 years Like I mentioned, I don't think the Rays really have any interest in moving Chris Archer unless they're being dealt a pretty strong package of players. I just don't see that headliner that they're going to want, instead I see a package of quantity rather than quality. Let's dig into their values though. Assuming Kolten Wong can be a ~2 WAR/year player over the life of his contract, you're looking at $38.8M in surplus value assuming you pick up his option. Let's assume that Stephen Piscotty regains his stroke and like Wong is a ~2 WAR/year player, that's another $59.6M in surplus value assuming you decline his option. Figure $20.6M for Carson Kelly and another $9.6M for Jack Flaherty given their prospect rankings, and FanGraphs' estimation of value and you're looking at $128.6M in surplus value by those four alone. Let's conservatively estimate Chris Archer at 3.5 WAR/year, and you're looking at $123.8M in surplus value by him alone. Add in Evan Longoria at ~3 WAR/year, and that's another $68M in surplus value which pushes the Rays package to nearly $192M in surplus value. That's a TON of value for those two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 (edited) Its just a way too simplistic view to look at value for trades. I know that many Front offices use that as a baseline for value, but thats all it is, a baseline. Its not the end all be all. Just like the the NFL Draft Value Chart, you cant just plug things in and claim "nope does not add up". We have seen plenty of that this deadline and last offseason. Once again, not saying Im right at this is the deal would get anything done. But to dismiss these because an arbitrary (yes it is) WAR-to-$$$ calculation doesnt match up is just nonsense. Not to mention, I think you are under projecting both Piscotty & Wong's WAR. Edited September 28, 2017 by StLunatic88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted September 28, 2017 Author Share Posted September 28, 2017 16 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said: Its just a way too simplistic view to look at value for trades. I know that many Front offices use that as a baseline for value, but thats all it is, a baseline. Its not the end all be all. Just like the the NFL Draft Value Chart, you cant just plug things in and claim "nope does not add up". We have seen plenty of that this deadline and last offseason. Once again, not saying Im right at this is the deal would get anything done. But to dismiss these because an arbitrary (yes it is) WAR-to-$$$ calculation doesnt match up is just nonsense. Not to mention, I think you are under projecting both Piscotty & Wong's WAR. I mean, you can pick and choose what logic you want to apply but at the end of the day the Cardinals would be acquiring a FOR starter and a middle-of-the-order bat. That's going to hurt. Does this package hurt? No, in fact I'd argue that aside form Carson Kelly and to a lesser extent Jack Flaherty it's "excess" that the Cardinals are trading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, CWood21 said: I mean, you can pick and choose what logic you want to apply but at the end of the day the Cardinals would be acquiring a FOR starter and a middle-of-the-order bat. That's going to hurt. Does this package hurt? No, in fact I'd argue that aside form Carson Kelly and to a lesser extent Jack Flaherty it's "excess" that the Cardinals are trading. You would consider two of our youngest and locked up bats as "excess"? I know we are down on them, and we are all probably sick if them because they represent the stagnant team we have. But in no way are they just excess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted September 28, 2017 Author Share Posted September 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said: You would consider two of our youngest and locked up bats as "excess"? I know we are down on them, and we are all probably sick if them because they represent the stagnant team we have. But in no way are they just excess. I'm talking about excess in terms of having relatively ready replacements behind them. Look at our OF depth in our high minors. We've got Tyler O'Neill and Harrison Bader at Memphis, and we've got Magneuris Sierra at Springfield. Are you telling me that you're convince that Stephen Piscotty is a significant upgrade over those three? Given his struggles this year, I'm not sure you can make that argument. And I'm not sure how another team can acquire him and feel confident that he'll return to form. I'm not giving up on him, but his value is almost non-existent until he shows he can hit the ball with more authority. As for Wong, he's a good player but not a great player. If the Cardinals moved Jedd Gyorko over to 2nd base with the addition of Evan Longoria, do the Cardinals see anything? No. And add on the fact that Wong has a very limited upside, and I think most of his value is derived in the fact that he's cost-controlled. Not because he's an exceptional player or anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 What does our replacement value for the guys taking over for what we have traded away have to do with the value of the piece we are trading to the rest of the league? Absolutely nothing. And once again, I think you are too close to it to see the true value of these guys. First of all Carson Kelly would really hurt to lose, he should be a cornerstone of this franchise for the next 10 years if we keep him. And while Piscotty had a down year, he is still cost controlled as you mentioned, but is also a young very toolsy OF. His value has dropped from the end of last year, but it didint completely disappear. And I would like to know where you think Wong's upside is limited. If your only call out there is he is a 2B instead of a SS, that is nothing new and he was one of the Top Prospects in baseball with that limitation. Ill keep saying it, I have no idea what the right price for any of these guys is. But the rumors of Archer trades being out there arent just made up, there have been too many of them, and the Rays have a track record as an organization. Longoria has now expressed that Winning is the most important thing to him, and its really hard to see him being in a great position on the Rays with the trajectory of the rest of the AL East. Getting him isnt going to be as hard as it would have been a few years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 Is there anything worse as a Cardinals fan than the last three years of: 2015-Cubs knock us out of playoffs 2016-Cubs run away with division and win WS 2017-Cubs clinch division title on our field and have legit chance to repeat as WS champs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said: Is there anything worse as a Cardinals fan than the last three years of: Yea, knowing that we are likely stuck with 3 more years of the exact same crap as Matheny's contract goes through 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted September 28, 2017 Author Share Posted September 28, 2017 3 hours ago, StLunatic88 said: What does our replacement value for the guys taking over for what we have traded away have to do with the value of the piece we are trading to the rest of the league? Absolutely nothing. And once again, I think you are too close to it to see the true value of these guys. First of all Carson Kelly would really hurt to lose, he should be a cornerstone of this franchise for the next 10 years if we keep him. And while Piscotty had a down year, he is still cost controlled as you mentioned, but is also a young very toolsy OF. His value has dropped from the end of last year, but it didint completely disappear. And I would like to know where you think Wong's upside is limited. If your only call out there is he is a 2B instead of a SS, that is nothing new and he was one of the Top Prospects in baseball with that limitation. Ill keep saying it, I have no idea what the right price for any of these guys is. But the rumors of Archer trades being out there arent just made up, there have been too many of them, and the Rays have a track record as an organization. Longoria has now expressed that Winning is the most important thing to him, and its really hard to see him being in a great position on the Rays with the trajectory of the rest of the AL East. Getting him isnt going to be as hard as it would have been a few years ago. You're completely missing the point I'm trying to make. If you're trading for a FOR SP or a middle-of-the-order bat, it's going to take a pretty big package that you're going to feel. Who in that package does it hurt to move on from? Carson Kelly is probably the only one you can make an argument for, and that's based on his future value as the heir to Yadier Molina. Stephen Piscotty is coming off a horrid year and has a TON of MLB-ready talent behind him, the Cardinals can afford to move him and not really feel badly about it. Sure, losing Jack Flaherty hurts depth but you're upgrading in this situation to Chris Archer. EDIT: And we're talking about the two of them together, not separately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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