The STL Cardinals Thread - Welcome to STL JJ!

[holt_bruce81]

Would love a...

Cardinals trade:
Tommy Pham OF 

Indians trade:
Bobby Bradley 1B 

[CWood21]

Just now, holt_bruce81 said:

Cardinals trade:
Tommy Pham OF
Trevor Rosenthal P 

Nationals trade:
Carter Kieboom 3B 
Yasel Antuna SS/3B 
McKenzie Mills P 

Fair?

The guys over VEB projected Rosenthal at $33.2M in surplus value alone, and even if you don't know how you value Pham and that's with the bump on Rosenthal for being a late-inning reliever.  Package might be a little light, but not terrible.

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

Would love a...

Cardinals trade:
Tommy Pham OF 

Indians trade:
Bobby Bradley 1B 

I'd pass.  He's got big time power, but that's about it.  Below-average defensively, and has significant swing and miss tendencies.

[holt_bruce81]

h

 

[ttitansfan4life]

#FireMatheny

[holt_bruce81]

@CWood21 can you make a post on just how to calculate a players surplus value? I know it has a lot to do with WAR/$ and years of team control. 

[holt_bruce81]

Yadi is pushing harder and harder for a Kelly trade.

[CWood21]

3 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

Yadi is pushing harder and harder for a Kelly trade.

What did Yadi do?

[MOSteelers56]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

What did Yadi do?

He called out Matheny for sitting him. 

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, MOSteelers56 said:

He called out Matheny for sitting him. 

Maybe I'm reading that instagram post wrong, but that seems more like he was upset with Matheny calling him tired.

[holt_bruce81]

6 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Maybe I'm reading that instagram post wrong, but that seems more like he was upset with Matheny calling him tired.

No you're reading it right. The Kelly thing is just my opinion, with things I've heard since his call-up. Apparently Molina isn't a fan of Kelly being up here. and that has nothing to do with Kelly as a person, but everything to do with Molina being upset at Kelly taking some playing time from him. And with today's MM/Yadi incident, where I actually think I'm on MM's side here. Keep that shiet in house. Don't go to social media......I can't imagine how Molina's going to be when Kelly continues to take more and more playing time away from Yadi behind the plate. 

[CWood21]

14 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

@CWood21 can you make a post on just how to calculate a players surplus value? I know it has a lot to do with WAR/$ and years of team control. 

The easiest way I can explain this concept is you're comparing how much the player would make on the FA market and comparing it to how much they'd make.  For example, if Carlos Martinez is making $10M this year but on the FA market he'd make $20M you've created a surplus value of $10M.  That $10M that you would have otherwise have invested can be used elsewhere.  So if Carlos Martinez were a FA and you had to sign him as a FA, you're signing him at $20M.  Instead of using that $10M that you can reinvest elsewhere, you're stuck paying him $20M since you had to sign him as a FA.  Remember a few years ago when the Cardinals were looking to sign A.J. Burnett?  The standard was 4 years, and nobody really even considered going 5 years with a pitcher.  Now, 5 years is the baseline for most capable SP and elite ones getting 6 or 7 years.  A decade ago, the concept of handing a 5 year contract, let alone a 6 or 7 year contract was unheard of.  While we looked initially only at a single year, you can look at that into future years and get a rough idea whether or not the player is going to be worth the contract.  Right now, the cost of WAR is roughly $8M/WAR but maybe @ramssuperbowl99 has a better estimation.  Obviously, inflation is going to cause that to WAR but for the sake of simplicity I just use the constant of $8M/WAR.  FanGraphs projected the cost of WAR in 2014 being somewhere between $5M-$7M, so using $6M isn't a terrible estimate.  The cost of WAR has gone up $2M in four years.  And then you add in the NPV equation (you can google this) where you're discounting future WAR production since you're trying to create the net present value.

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, holt_bruce81 said:

No you're reading it right. The Kelly thing is just my opinion, with things I've heard since his call-up. Apparently Molina isn't a fan of Kelly being up here. and that has nothing to do with Kelly as a person, but everything to do with Molina being upset at Kelly taking some playing time from him. And with today's MM/Yadi incident, where I actually think I'm on MM's side here. Keep that shiet in house. Don't go to social media......I can't imagine how Molina's going to be when Kelly continues to take more and more playing time away from Yadi behind the plate. 

Again, another reason why I thought it was a bad idea to move Carson Kelly up this year.  No reason to have him sit on the bench, and not play.  Not to mention, Molina wasn't going to be happy.  Would have preferred his contract only be two years after this year, but it's too late to discuss that.

[holt_bruce81]

With this incident. I imagine unless MM gets the call to sit him from upstairs, I bet Molina is in the starting lineup until his legs fall off. 

[ramssuperbowl99]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

The easiest way I can explain this concept is you're comparing how much the player would make on the FA market and comparing it to how much they'd make.  For example, if Carlos Martinez is making $10M this year but on the FA market he'd make $20M you've created a surplus value of $10M.  That $10M that you would have otherwise have invested can be used elsewhere.  So if Carlos Martinez were a FA and you had to sign him as a FA, you're signing him at $20M.  Instead of using that $10M that you can reinvest elsewhere, you're stuck paying him $20M since you had to sign him as a FA.  Remember a few years ago when the Cardinals were looking to sign A.J. Burnett?  The standard was 4 years, and nobody really even considered going 5 years with a pitcher.  Now, 5 years is the baseline for most capable SP and elite ones getting 6 or 7 years.  A decade ago, the concept of handing a 5 year contract, let alone a 6 or 7 year contract was unheard of.  While we looked initially only at a single year, you can look at that into future years and get a rough idea whether or not the player is going to be worth the contract.  Right now, the cost of WAR is roughly $8M/WAR but maybe @ramssuperbowl99 has a better estimation.  Obviously, inflation is going to cause that to WAR but for the sake of simplicity I just use the constant of $8M/WAR.  FanGraphs projected the cost of WAR in 2014 being somewhere between $5M-$7M, so using $6M isn't a terrible estimate.  The cost of WAR has gone up $2M in four years.  And then you add in the NPV equation (you can google this) where you're discounting future WAR production since you're trying to create the net present value.

Yep it just quantifies how much of a discount you're getting. The $/WAR price is closer to $9 or $10M now. 

I would note that at the trade deadline teams pay close to double for WAR because there's no FA market, and then you can discount future season at something like 5% a year. Realistically though, when you're making prospect for player trades, the error bars on prospect grades outweighs any of the other modifications you might make to just the straight WAR*dollars calc.