The STL Cardinals Thread - Welcome to STL JJ!

[kgarrett12486]

Zac Gallen starting the All-star game (Sandy Alcantara started last year). Arozarena and garcia manning the corner OF spots and then you have the white whale that got away in Robert Jr. in CF.

Been rough to swallow the last (2) all star games. 

[kgarrett12486]

Good piece and insight into Chase Davis. Very interesting on some of the analytical stats, as he's one of the leaders in entire class. 

https://redbirdrants.com/posts/breaking-down-st-louis-cardinals-first-round-pick-of-chase-davis-01h4ymfps85s

[kgarrett12486]

Jeff Jones reporting that the Blue Jays and Phillies have been showing significant interest in Jordan Montgomery. Man I hope his injury is nothing more than a minor strain. 

[JonStark]

If he's not traded, we better be prepared to bring him back. 

 

Edit: Monty that is.

Edited July 11, 2023 by JonStark

[StLunatic88]

36 minutes ago, JonStark said:

If he's not traded, we better be prepared to bring him back. 

 

Edit: Monty that is.

I still say we should try to re-sign him even after we trade him

[MOSteelers56]

I agree with all these takes

[StLunatic88]

Really thinking about 2024 already, because Im not being fooled by a series against the White Sox (who have already quit for the year) DISCLAIMER: There is alot of projection in this post, obviously other trades change things

The most logical and quick fix solution is obviously Shohei Ohtani; he would give us the Frontline starter as well as a cornerstone OF and suddenly give us the lineup we have all been dreaming about. Its extremely unlikely, but I am holding out the smallest amount of hope because of what DeWitt saw with Nootbaar in the WBC. And while its going to take like a $70m per year deal, he could actually tap into that Japanese baseball market to make most of, if not all of that back (he has capped out on the basic US market). Long Shot, but its some how very slightly on the table.

But more realistically, lets talk about who should be on the way out. In a mix of before this Trade Deadline and early on in the offseason, this list should be sent out for as much trade value as we can amass

• Jack FLaherty
• Jordan Montgomery
• Jordan Hicks
• Paul DeJong
• Chris Stratton
• Tommy Edman
• Tyler O'Neill/Dylan Carlson*
• Juan Yepez
• Andrew Knizner
• Alec Burleson
• Dakota Hudson
• Luken Baker

*Im actually OK with moving both O'Neill and Carlson, if the situation calls for it, but it seems more likely that one is kept, regardless of what else we do with this roster. And with the injury history along with the relationship strain, its more likely than not that its Tyler out the door.

I would also like to move other contracts (Contreras and Matz) but seem very, very unlikely. If someone wants to give up something of real value for Gallegos, Cabrerra or Helsley, Im open to that too. Lets stop hoarding pieces that arent showing massive potential. In that same vein, most of our young arms are middle of the rotation guys at best (Liberatore, Graceffo), more likely back end of the rotation or Bullpen arms (Thompson, McGreevy, Hjerpe)

So basically, Wipe the slate clean, and start the offseason with this

• Nolan Arenado
• Paul Goldschmidt
• Miles Mikolas
• Jordan Walker
• Nolan Gorman
• Willson Contreras
• Steven Matz
• Brendan Donovan
• Ivan Hererra
• Lars Nootbaar
• Masyn Winn
• Tink Hence*

*Obviously Hence is not being relied on as a Rotation piece for '24, but he is one of our few Elite Pieces

So thats 10ish guys you are locked into for the Major League roster, where you need like 20-22 for the year, so plenty of work to be done. We do have other pieces that will be part of the '24 roster, but Im not saying they are locked in at this point.

When looking around the league (assuming no Ohtani) my first option to go after is Shane Bieber. He could absolutely be moved before this deadline, but I still think the Guardians will be in control of the division and end up hanging onto him for this year. That means one more year of control of a potential Ace (with some questions) who will be hitting Free Agency, almost assuredly. Ive admitted that I am bad on trade compensation, but what Ive seen as some projected deals this year, minus one more playoff run of value, One of our Major League OFs plus some prospects (not named WInn or Hence) could get this done. It would be a bit of a Risk, but we have to make a serious move here, an the top of the Rotation of Bieber/Mikolas is much better than what we are looking at now.

But even if we made that deal, it cant be the only thing we do. Because even counting on Matz and one of the youngsters, thats just 4. I would love to say we can also grab someone of the Montgomery, Giolito, Sonny Gray group (all guys who have show interest in) Its more likely we arent going to be able to spend that much, especially if we want a chance to bring Bieber back after '24. But we could be a spot for a Reclamation project. Id love to give Tyler Mahle a shot but TJ probably knocks him out for most of '24, could be a great target for '25 though. So after him, the likes of Frankie Montas, Jake Odorizzi, or Syndergaard would be high on my list, trying to bounce back again after injuries and/or bad years. Others will undoubtable fall into this group, and they wont be bargin basement either, But they may be short term deals (with Mo likely feeling the real heat here, as well as the possibility of Arenado giving ultimatums if we have another year like this, we may spend alittle more short term this offseason)

If we could somehow swing these pitching additions, it wouldnt leave much room dollar wise for a bat. So if thats the case, we need to try to make a move for someone cheap with some upside. I present to you Victor Robles. Yes he has become a bit of a malcontent on the Nats, but that much losing can do that to anyone. That, along with the back-spasms (which I still believe are being used as an excuse, more so than the actual injury that it is) presents an option that shouldnt be all that expensive to acquire. He's only got one more year of control left, so he will be playing for a contract, he is a true CF, which we apparently dont have anymore, and he has actually been hitting for average in his limited time this year, after a poor couple of years on bad teams. Just shows me that the massive talent that everyone loved is still bubbling in there somewhere.

If we dont spend the money on a pitcher as stated above, We should add a reliable bat (not trying to cash a lottery ticket like Robles) and the bat that I was pounding the table for last year will be out there again, Cody Bellinger. But its not going to happen, as I believe we poo-pooed him this offseason. Outside of him, Teoscar Hernandez is the guy Id really like to have, a power bat in RF who probably wont break the bank, but wont be a bargain either.

 

There is alot of work to do, but it can absolutely be done if they commit to some spending and letting go of the past. 

Edited July 11, 2023 by StLunatic88

[kgarrett12486]

Double post

Edited July 12, 2023 by kgarrett12486

[kgarrett12486]

1 minute ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Nice write-up @StLunatic88. Definitely a hard thing to project at this point (as you eluded to in your post). Some of my thoughts.

-I wish I could realistically believe there was even a slight glimmer of hope we could land Ohtani, but I don't think there is. Lot of rumors out there he only wants to play on the west coast and it's pretty typical for that culture. He just makes too much sense for the Dodgers. I love the Nootbar narrative, but I don't think that would be enough to sway him to come to a Midwest. Plus, not even sure Nootbar remains on this team after trade deadline and/or off-season. 

-Agree with every single player listed that needs to be shopped and off-laoded for a return at the deadline. Not sure all of them fetch something, but they all need to be shopped. I'm okay with keeping Carlson, if they're not going to package him in a deal for something bigger. Don't want to sell him independently right now while is value is so low unless the right deal comes along. TON I'm at the point to where if a team gives you a lottery pick for him you take it. I get it's selling him at all time low, but honestly in order for him to rebuild his value he has to play everyday and he's just never been able to do that outside of his 1 off year. 

-Like you said, almost nominal chance Matz or Contreras can be moved. I think we need to keep one of Gallegos, Helsley and then offload the other. Cabrera has so many miles on his arm, they need to move him if they can get anything of value. 

-The only MLB players that are untouchable to me are Walker, Arenado and Goldy. Gorman is right there too, but if I would listen to him being involved if it was a potential 'star' we were trading for. On the prospects front, Winn and Hence are the (2) that I would really have to swayed on to move.

-I'l reserve my thoughts on player options/targets until after the deadline. I plan on doing one of these to once we have some clarity on who's still here, etc. 

 

[kgarrett12486]

Did anyone cathc the Martin Kilcoyne 1-1 interview with Mozeliak last night? Here is the link for the summarized version after it aired:

https://fox2now.com/sports/st-louis-cardinals/john-mozeliak-reflects-on-cardinals-nightmare-season-insists-changes-have-to-happen/

 

[StLunatic88]

10 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

-I wish I could realistically believe there was even a slight glimmer of hope we could land Ohtani, but I don't think there is. Lot of rumors out there he only wants to play on the west coast and it's pretty typical for that culture. He just makes too much sense for the Dodgers. I love the Nootbar narrative, but I don't think that would be enough to sway him to come to a Midwest. Plus, not even sure Nootbar remains on this team after trade deadline and/or off-season. 

I am not counting it as anything other than an absolute longshot. If there was 100% of outcomes, I think the Cardinals are 1%, maybe 2% of that pie.

While yes they usually stay on the coasts, if he goes anywhere other than like Seattle, he wont be protected from the American Media like most players enjoy being. That is something we can offer players that many places that are trying to win can not. We can also pair him up with 2 other MVP caliber players, a true historical record of winning. And media is Universal now, its not like the times of Ichiro and Hideki, where you needed to be on on one of those coasts or media super centers.

Again, while the Cardinals may be the most logical team in baseball to sign Ohtani, I have no expectations that we will. But those factors I listed are what allows is to even toss our hat in the ring.

[CWood21]

On 7/10/2023 at 8:30 AM, kgarrett12486 said:

Chase Davis was one of those guys I thought we'd target and turned out so. I really like this pick. Lot of comps to CarGo being thrown around and if you look at their swings side-by-side, very similar.

He's a guy who overcame adversity (which is a positive IMO), as he struggled immensely his freshman year. He improved every year after. He cut his strikeout rate in half last year. Has really good pop. He has ability to play all (3) OF spots, but I think he projects as RF. Has a very good arm from there too. He's pretty close with both Walker and Winn apparently too. Might be a fast track guy we could see MLB ready by 2026. 

If he pans out, we have our corner OF set with Walker and Davis. 

Didn't follow the draft at all, but no issues with this kind of pick.

[CWood21]

21 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Really thinking about 2024 already, because Im not being fooled by a series against the White Sox (who have already quit for the year) DISCLAIMER: There is alot of projection in this post, obviously other trades change things

~ 0% chance the Cardinals sign Ohtani.  While I think everyone would love that, the Cardinals aren't going to compete with the NY Yankees, NY Mets, Boston, and LA Dodgers in the money category so unless there's some weird love between he and Lars Nootbarr there isn't any chance that he signs with St. Louis.  We shouldn't even be entertaining it.

21 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

But more realistically, lets talk about who should be on the way out. In a mix of before this Trade Deadline and early on in the offseason, this list should be sent out for as much trade value as we can amass

• Jack FLaherty
• Jordan Montgomery
• Jordan Hicks
• Paul DeJong
• Chris Stratton
• Tommy Edman
• Tyler O'Neill/Dylan Carlson*
• Juan Yepez
• Andrew Knizner
• Alec Burleson
• Dakota Hudson
• Luken Baker

Top 5 are all obvious trade candidates for obvious reasons.  Montgomery and Hicks are probably the most valuable of the bunch.  Don't really see Edman being dealt unless the Cardinals think that Masyn Winn is going to be ready next year, and in the event they deal him that'd almost assuredly mean that Paul DeJong would return to being the Cardinals everyday starting SS.  I don't think the Cardinals view Brendan Donvoan as a viable starting SS, at least not defensively.  The Cardinals definitely shouldn't trade O'Neill.  He's played in less than 120 games over the last 2 years, and been miserable.  We would get peanuts for him.  Wait for him to get healthy and hope he rebounds, and see what he can fetch at the deadline.  I'd entertain offers for Dylan Carlson, but he's probably not fetching much.  The rest of the list doesn't offer anything of real value to other teams.

[MOSteelers56]

I don’t think TON is going to be healthy enough to ever rebound anymore. I think we struck lightning that one year. He’s made of glass. We might not get anything much for him now, but I don’t think he’s going to rebuild his stock. 

[kgarrett12486]

4 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Quote

Top 5 are all obvious trade candidates for obvious reasons.  Montgomery and Hicks are probably the most valuable of the bunch.

Quote

Don't really see Edman being dealt unless the Cardinals think that Masyn Winn is going to be ready next year, and in the event they deal him that'd almost assuredly mean that Paul DeJong would return to being the Cardinals everyday starting SS.  I don't think the Cardinals view Brendan Donvoan as a viable starting SS, at least not defensively.

 

Quote

The Cardinals definitely shouldn't trade O'Neill.  He's played in less than 120 games over the last 2 years, and been miserable.  We would get peanuts for him.  Wait for him to get healthy and hope he rebounds, and see what he can fetch at the deadline.

 

1] I think people are underrating Jack Flaherty's potential value given it's likely to be a poor SP market. He might be the 4th best SP on the market (depending on what the Gaurdians do with Bieber), with it potentially being Stroman, Giolito, Monty as the top-tier arms. We see contenders overpay every year for SP, even for mid-tier guys (ala the Mahle trade last year).

2] I think it's unlikely we move Edman on his own, but if we're exploring looking to get a younger cost controlled pitcher, Edman could be part of a package. He's had a down year, but he's still got value and even more so in a package deal IMO. Agree though, don't see Donovan being viewed as the everyday SS. They love being able to move him all over the diamond and don't want to box him into being needed in just (1) spot. If we did move Edman, I think that essentially seals that DeJong would be back for 2024 as the projected starter. They'd give Winn shot to beat him out in ST, but have that veteran assurance if not. 

3] Generally I agree with this approach, but for TON we've been down this path over and over. The guy just can't stay healthy and when he is healthy, he's honestly been nothing to write home about outside of that offliar season. I think the ship sailed on being able to trade him for anything of signifcance. If we keep him, like you said we have to give him everyday shot in 2024 to rebuild his value. That in itself is a massive 'if' (and highly unlikely) and potentially means your taking reps away from Carlson (who I still think they want to work given his control and pedigree, and are going to give every shot to if he's on the roster) or potentially blocks you from going out and getting a veteran to supplement. If you don't get something at the deadline for him, he's an off-season move candidate for sure IMO. Ecven if it is just a lottery ticket type.