StLunatic88 Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 On 10/7/2017 at 11:05 AM, CWood21 said: I know we've discussed this ad nauseam, but that still seems rather light for Josh Donaldson. Hey I get it, and if I was the one trading away JD, I would need a better package. BUT there is just something nagging at me that for some reason they really covet Grichuck. Some of the things Ive read, and odd things said during interviews from guys who are truly in the know. Maybe its all based off of old or erroneous information, but it seems to be too many times to just be a coincidence. And when it comes down to it, JD is just a rental without agreeing to an extension before he is traded. So that really limits his value, and I dont think they could even expect a Flaherty type in return. I think I hold Hudson in a bit higher regard thank you seem to, and Gober is mostly a throw in who could be a rotation asset for a team rebuilding. So a package of a Major League OF with 3 more years of team control that they covet, and 2 legitimate rotation prospects (one who I see with a ceiling just under Ace level, and another as a reliable innings eater) Im not sure they are getting a whole lot more for 1 season of Donaldson. On 10/7/2017 at 11:05 AM, CWood21 said: Call me crazy, but I wouldn't trade all that for Giancarlo Stanton. Also Understandable, but unlike JD there will be plenty of packages for the Marlins to choose from. And asking them to pay any of Stanton's remaining contract is a non-starter at that point. And if we want him, its going to cost a pretty penny. I believe you were the one questioning what Piscotty's value is now, so while yes he is a starting OF, can we pretend to actually know where his value is now? When going up against the Phillies, its going to take a pretty hefty package to bring back Stanton. And I realize we are giving up alot, but in the end, its alot of potential pieces that havent proven anything for potentially the best hitter in the game. Like I said, I would even throw in another prospect in there to seal the deal if needed. On 10/7/2017 at 11:05 AM, CWood21 said: Pretty indifferent to Ricky Nolasco tbh, and I think I'd rather just deal Gyroko for prospects if that's the case. And i figured that would be the response of most people. But heres the thing, I doubt we are getting much in the way of prospects for Gyorko, as that would end up being more of a salary dump (Leake type situation). Wit hthe move for Nolasco, we get out of the future money that we dont want to be stuck with, but also get a short term asset that we desperately need. Finding an innings eater has been identified by this group as one of the most important things this offseason as we cant count on any of the rotation outside of Carlos to give us a decent amount of innings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted October 9, 2017 Author Share Posted October 9, 2017 6 hours ago, StLunatic88 said: Hey I get it, and if I was the one trading away JD, I would need a better package. BUT there is just something nagging at me that for some reason they really covet Grichuck. Some of the things Ive read, and odd things said during interviews from guys who are truly in the know. Maybe its all based off of old or erroneous information, but it seems to be too many times to just be a coincidence. And when it comes down to it, JD is just a rental without agreeing to an extension before he is traded. So that really limits his value, and I dont think they could even expect a Flaherty type in return. I think I hold Hudson in a bit higher regard thank you seem to, and Gober is mostly a throw in who could be a rotation asset for a team rebuilding. So a package of a Major League OF with 3 more years of team control that they covet, and 2 legitimate rotation prospects (one who I see with a ceiling just under Ace level, and another as a reliable innings eater) Im not sure they are getting a whole lot more for 1 season of Donaldson. The problem for me is that this deal is essentially making the headline of the deal Randal Grichuk, who was pretty much close to be DFA'd early in the year. And it's not like had this crazy second half of the season where he looked like the second coming of Mike Trout. He's a good player, but he's going to be incredibly frustrating for anyone. Add on Dakota Hudson, who I admittedly am a bit bullish on, with his less than stellar strike out rate and it's just not a real strong package. There's really not much there to indicate that Hudson has a ceiling just below ace level. I think the Jays are likely asking for Jack Flaherty and something else, but that's probably not something the Cardinals are keen on doing given his contract status. And I don't view Austin Gomber as anything more than a throw-in tbh. He doesn't have great stuff, and he's not one of those pitchers who induces a lot of ground balls. At this point, he's a future reliever or maybe a BOR starter. He's a throw-in. If you're going to push this deal, the Jays probably want a high upside arm. Think Sandy Alcantara or Junior Ferandez. Depending on how they view Hudson, I could see a Grichuk, Hudson, Alcantara package being interesting to them. 6 hours ago, StLunatic88 said: Also Understandable, but unlike JD there will be plenty of packages for the Marlins to choose from. And asking them to pay any of Stanton's remaining contract is a non-starter at that point. And if we want him, its going to cost a pretty penny. I believe you were the one questioning what Piscotty's value is now, so while yes he is a starting OF, can we pretend to actually know where his value is now? When going up against the Phillies, its going to take a pretty hefty package to bring back Stanton. And I realize we are giving up alot, but in the end, its alot of potential pieces that havent proven anything for potentially the best hitter in the game. Like I said, I would even throw in another prospect in there to seal the deal if needed. I mentioned, my problem is his contract. His contract balloons to $25M this year and slowly creeps up to $32M in a few years. How many teams can realistically afford to take on that contract? Over the last five offseason, only one player received a $25M/year+ contract and that was Yoenis Cespedes who received a 4 year, $110M. That's a SIGNIFICANTLY lower price tag than the 10 years, $295M guaranteed on Stanton's deal. I legitimately have no idea how to weigh what he's worth in terms of trade value, against what his actual salary takes up in terms of payroll. As for Piscotty, you're trading him at a low point unless you believe this is another Allen Craig-like situation. But the problem is if you believe he'll bounce back, you're giving them a starting OF, starting MOR starter, AND starting C while essentially locking up your payroll for the foreseeable future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 (edited) wrong thread Edited October 10, 2017 by kgarrett12486 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Well, here is my wish list for the off-season. Obviously, in this scenario we'd offer Lance Lynn the QO, which he'd decline and we'd get a pick. Alex Reyes would begin the year in the BP and could be moved to the rotation when needed to preserve innings on his arm. We could also look to move either Kolten Wong or Jedd Gyorko at some point, but I'll hold onto them for this scenario to start the season... Free Agents LF J.D Martinez (5 years - $137.5 million): We finally are able to land (not come in 2nd) for the prize FA bat on the market. Most project an AAV of $25-30 million, so for the sake of this, I split the difference and went $27.5 AAV. He's heading into his age 31 season, but production just continues to get better. This will likely be his last big deal, so going 5 years makes sense. He'll immediately slide into either the #3 or 4 hole and be the intimidating presence and output we lack. He'll also provide some insurance in case another one of our acquired bats decides to move on after 2018. C Carlos Ruiz (1 year - $1.5 million): I think we all have been fooled enough in the past, no matter what the FO states, that we now realize while Yadier Molina continues to produce and coming into the extension phase now, he's going to be the workhorse behind the plate. Ruiz is simply a place holder at this point in his career. He's going into age 40 season and is a guy you can give a start when Yadi needs a day off. Simple as that. Trades: STL sends: OF Stephen Piscotty, SP Jack Flaherty + mid tier prospect, cash, or PTBNL TOR sends: 3B Josh Donaldson It's going to take a lot to pry him from Toronto, even with only 1 year remaining on his deal. He would provide an upgrade defensively and exponentially at the hot corner. When healthy, he's a legit MVP caliper player. I fully admit I was down on him earlier this year, thinking he might have hit the plateau of his career. I was dead wrong. The guy is still a monster and should continue to be for at least the next 2-4 years. We give up a cost controlled, MLB starting caliper OF which Toronto needs and an MLB ready, potential #2 or 3 projected starter. Steep price, but worth the return, especially if we could lock him up during the season... STL sends: OF Randal Grichuk, C Carson Kelly, SP Dakota Hudson, SP Sandy Alcantara and OF Mags Sierra TBR sends: SP Jake Odorizzi , RP Alex Colome A huge deal. We've shown interest in both players in the past. We give up a lot in this deal, but we also kill two problem areas - a middle of the rotation arm, just coming into his prime and controlled for the next 2 seasons via arbitration + a high end closer who we'd control for 3 more years via arbitration. I know this isn't our normal way, but I think given what they'd bring to help our club now and for the future it makes sense. Rotation: Carlos Martinez - SP Jake Odorizzi - SP Luke Weaver - SP Adam Wainwright - SP Michael Wacha -SP Bull-Pen: Matt Bowman - RP Brett Cecil - RP Tyler Lyons - RP John Brebbia - RP Alex Reyes - RP Juan Nicasio - SU Alex Colome - CL Roster: 1B Matt Carpenter RF Tommy Pham LF J.D. Martinez 3B Josh Donaldson CF Dexter Fowler C Yadier Molina SS Paul DeJong 2B Kolten Wong Bench: 1B/OF Jose Martinez INF Jedd Gyorko INF Alex Mejia OF Harrison Bader C Carlos Ruiz 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holt_bruce81 Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 @kgarrett12486 nice offseason man, love a lot of it. Especially getting Donaldson and JD Martinez obviously. don't really know how I feel about the Odorozzi trade, I feel like we're giving an awful lot in that package. One thing I wanted to ask everyone. If, and I know this is a big IF, we get Josh Donaldson, Which i think we can all agree would be a great get this offseason. Does anyone think it could lead to more clubhouse problems? Not saying Donaldson is a bad dude, and I think he would do wonders for the clubhouse with his teammates and might even help bring back the cockiness to this organization and its players...but I could see Donaldson butting heads with the Coaching staff. I don't really know how Mabry is as a hitting coach, but he doesn't seem like a guy who takes to kindly to players saying they're going to do whatever they want. and I remember a quote by Donaldson essentially telling the hitting coach to go away and let him fix his swing himself. Can't imagine that going over well with Mabry or Matheny....And with Donaldson, coming over to an organization that seems very dry and structured in how they do things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holt_bruce81 Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 And I think the time is now to trade Matt Carpenter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted October 10, 2017 Author Share Posted October 10, 2017 Great work @kgarrett12486. I'll dig into your offseason. I'm going to be a bit gun shy about making that kind of commitment to J.D. Martinez. Looking at his numbers this year, he ISO'd over 150 points over his career averages and over 130 points higher than his next highest seasons. I'd put the odds of him hitting 40+ HR at any point in that contract as unlikely at best. Defensively, he's probably a LF-only at this point. Over the last two season, he's been a -27 DRS in just under 2000 innings in RF. That's probably my tipping point about willing to go with Martinez, and even then I don't feel comfortable going that far. The problem is I don't see him accepting a 5 year deal, especially when I think there's a good chance he could get six or seven years. I'm not sure I'm willing to commit that many years to him. Not the worst signing, but not someone I'm enthusiastic about. As for the Donaldson trade, I think this is closer to the package it's going to have to take. Teams don't trade middle-of-the-order bats, but the problem is I don't think the Cardinals are willing to deal Jack Flaherty for a guy who could be a rental. And my issue is that next SP prospect down the list is a step below IMO. I don't think that the Jays are okay with having Hudson as the headliner. If we're moving Flaherty for Donaldson, I'd want something else in return. And I'm not sure Piscotty being dealt in this deal is the right move either. Really don't like that Rays package either. Seems like a LOT to give up for a guy coming off a miserable year and a reliever. And you're giving up a LOT of SP depth in that deal as well. We've got virtually no SP depth after these two trades. Why are we not dealing from our OF depth? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holt_bruce81 Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 (edited) Ok, decided to do my own mock off-season. Thanks @kgarrett12486 and @StLunatic88 for making me daydream about this crap, really appreciate it! First things first, I agree with everyone in saying it would be absolutely idiotic not to offer Lance a QO, So i'm assuming we offer and he declines. also, I think Jason Simontacchi becomes our new pitching coach. Free Agents: 1. Eric Hosmer 1B - Don't really care how much it cost the organization, it's not my money. The Cardinals generate enough money where I really don't think we need to worry about it. Earlier in the year I really was against trying to Acquire Hosmer, The defensive metrics aren't to kind to him. bUT i love the leadership and charisma he shows. Think he would do wonders in the clubhouse. 2. Juan Nicasio RP - Obvious reasons Trade: Cardinals send: Matt Carpenter, Jack Flaherty, Stephen Piscotty Blue Jays send: Josh Donaldson - Blue Jays GM has said previously that he's not looking to go full rebuild. So it's very reasonable to think they would be looking for more MLB ready type players in a trade that involves Donaldson. It's really hard to let Carp go, I will never forget his epic at bats in the postseason, especially against Kershaw. But I feel like he really handcuffs this team. Lineup: 1. Dexter Fowler CF 2. Harrison Bader RF 3. Eric Hosmer 1B 4. Josh Donaldson 3B 5. Paul DeJong SS 6. Tommy Pham LF 7. Yadier Molina C 8. Kolten Wong 2B Bench: 1. Jedd Gyorko 2. Greg Garcia 3. Carson Kelly 4. Jose Martinez 5. Alex Mejia Rotation: 1. Carlos Martinez 2. Alex Reyes 3. Michael Wacha 4. Adam Wainwright 5. Luke Weaver - As much as I want them to start Reyes in the pen, especially at the beginning of the season, I don't think they will. And yes the rotation scares me, I really wanted to try and do a major blockbuster with Toronto where we were acquiring both Donaldson and Stroman, but my lord I couldn't even imagine what that would cost us. Bullpen: BP: Matt Bowman BP: John Brebbia BP: Brett Cecil BP: Ryan Sherriff SU: Tyler Lyons SU: Sandy Alcantara CL: Juan Nicasio - Would love to find a way to get Dakota Hudson on this roster, but feel like he needs to stay stretched out in Memphis. Edited October 11, 2017 by holt_bruce81 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 I've liked every of these offseasons so far. I'm a big fan of bringing in Donaldson. I also wouldn't mind trading Carpenter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted October 12, 2017 Author Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/10/2017 at 3:13 PM, holt_bruce81 said: And I think the time is now to trade Matt Carpenter. I'd definitely entertain offers from them. There's a few playoff contenders that could use upgrades at 1B. Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rockies all finished in the bottom half of 1B cumulative WAR. Cardinals got 2.9 WAR out of Matt Carpenter. Just going through the teams I mentioned earlier. Astros - Yulieski Gurriel is their current starting 1B, and he's coming off a solid year despite only accumulating 1.8 WAR. I don't think the Astros are going to actively looking to improve this position, although moving Gurriel should help them out defensively. That would put the Evan Gattis essentially as a glorified bench bat, or at the very least create a situation where they're rotating Gattis, Carpenter, and Gurriel between 1B/DH. Or they could opt to move Evan Gattis. Gattis only has one year left of arbitration, and he's projected to make $6.6M in arbitration. Highly unlikely they'd move Kyle Tucker or Forrest Whitley in any deal, and probably not dealing JBB either. I like Yordan Alvarez quite a bit, but not sure I'd want him as the headliner in a Carp deal. Yankees - The Yankees got 1.9 WAR out of Chase Headley who has 1 year, $13M left on his deal. They could flip him in a separate deal. Gleyber Torres is almost assuredly off-limits in any deal. The Yankees have a slew of MLB-ready prospects, although they've been rather reluctant to part with their young players. Miguel Andujar was one of the guys I noticed a while back, and he'd probably be of interest to the Cardinals. Of the four teams, they've got the best farm to pick from but they're probably the most reluctant to deal from them. Red Sox - Don't think they're willing to deal Groome, but beyond that I think they're open for business. Don't like Michael Chavis a ton, but I'd take him and I wonder if they'd be willing to throw in Tanner Houck. There is moves to be had here as I feel Boston is feeling the pressure to make some moves. Rockies - Rockies farm system doesn't offer much behind Brendan Rodgers and Riley Pint, neither of which are likely available in a Matt Carpenter trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/10/2017 at 3:11 PM, holt_bruce81 said: Quote @kgarrett12486 nice offseason man, love a lot of it. Especially getting Donaldson and JD Martinez obviously. don't really know how I feel about the Odorozzi trade, I feel like we're giving an awful lot in that package. Appreciate it. I think if we were going to go the route of adding two impact bats (I know we're just hoping for one lol) that these two would be the most feasible IMO. Probably did give up too much in the Odorizzi trade, but I think we're gonna have to overpay to pry one of the best closers in the game away. If we could add Colome and keep Nicasio that gives us a shutdown back-end like we had with Rosenthal and Oh in 2016. I'm really scared that we're not going to make significant improvement(s) to the BP, which is a mistake IMO... Quote One thing I wanted to ask everyone. If, and I know this is a big IF, we get Josh Donaldson, Which i think we can all agree would be a great get this offseason. Does anyone think it could lead to more clubhouse problems? Not saying Donaldson is a bad dude, and I think he would do wonders for the clubhouse with his teammates and might even help bring back the cockiness to this organization and its players...but I could see Donaldson butting heads with the Coaching staff. I don't really know how Mabry is as a hitting coach, but he doesn't seem like a guy who takes to kindly to players saying they're going to do whatever they want. and I remember a quote by Donaldson essentially telling the hitting coach to go away and let him fix his swing himself. Can't imagine that going over well with Mabry or Matheny....And with Donaldson, coming over to an organization that seems very dry and structured in how they do things. I really thin the coaching staff in general knows that last year opened the FO eyes, with some of the public rebellion. I think they know another situation like that could have them out the door. I think this roster is going to be reshaped this off-season, possibly gutting some of the internal player issues and I thin Matheny knows he needs to conform and regain the clubhouse, or he'll be out the door with another year like 2017... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/10/2017 at 5:58 PM, CWood21 said: Quote Great work @kgarrett12486. I'll dig into your offseason. I'm going to be a bit gun shy about making that kind of commitment to J.D. Martinez. Looking at his numbers this year, he ISO'd over 150 points over his career averages and over 130 points higher than his next highest seasons. I'd put the odds of him hitting 40+ HR at any point in that contract as unlikely at best. Defensively, he's probably a LF-only at this point. Over the last two season, he's been a -27 DRS in just under 2000 innings in RF. That's probably my tipping point about willing to go with Martinez, and even then I don't feel comfortable going that far. The problem is I don't see him accepting a 5 year deal, especially when I think there's a good chance he could get six or seven years. I'm not sure I'm willing to commit that many years to him. Not the worst signing, but not someone I'm enthusiastic about. Appreciate it. He could possibly get 6-7 years, but I think teams are becoming more hesitant with these for players over 30. I think teams will up the AAV for the shorter deal. I think it's realistic to think 5 years could get it done... I know he went off last year, but you're still talking about a guy that's averaged 32 HR's/season for last four years, hit over .300 three of the four years and had an OPS over .900 three of the last four years. He's still an absolute monster... Quote Really don't like that Rays package either. Seems like a LOT to give up for a guy coming off a miserable year and a reliever. And you're giving up a LOT of SP depth in that deal as well. We've got virtually no SP depth after these two trades. Why are we not dealing from our OF depth? Yah, I may have given up too much in my deal, probably should have swapped another OF in there for Hudson... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 I know I'll look like a Johnny Come Lately but what about giving CC Sabathia a look this offseason? He could probably handle one more year of eating innings and everything else. He may have pitched himself into more money than we're willing to give out and he also probably won't want to come to the NL. I just thought I'd throw out a name that I hadn't heard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted October 12, 2017 Author Share Posted October 12, 2017 3 hours ago, MOSteelers56 said: I know I'll look like a Johnny Come Lately but what about giving CC Sabathia a look this offseason? He could probably handle one more year of eating innings and everything else. He may have pitched himself into more money than we're willing to give out and he also probably won't want to come to the NL. I just thought I'd throw out a name that I hadn't heard. I looked at him briefly earlier this week, but the last time he pitched 200+ innings was back in 2013. Since 2015, he's averaged 165 IP over the last three seasons. Honestly, not sure thats any different than what we've already got in Adam Wainwright. I think the most likely scenario if the Cardinals going shopping for an innings eater is if they plan on shifting Adam Wainwright to the bullpen. At this point, our rotation is tentatively Carlos Martinez, Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Mike Leake, and TBD. I'm not sure they're going to tie up someone in the rotation, especially with Alex Reyes and Jack Flaherty being relatively MLB-ready. And with others being pretty close to being ready, I'd imagine they're probably not looking to sign someone whose going to be unhappy if they get shifted from the rotation to the bullpen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 36 minutes ago, CWood21 said: I looked at him briefly earlier this week, but the last time he pitched 200+ innings was back in 2013. Since 2015, he's averaged 165 IP over the last three seasons. Honestly, not sure thats any different than what we've already got in Adam Wainwright. I think the most likely scenario if the Cardinals going shopping for an innings eater is if they plan on shifting Adam Wainwright to the bullpen. At this point, our rotation is tentatively Carlos Martinez, Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Mike Leake, and TBD. I'm not sure they're going to tie up someone in the rotation, especially with Alex Reyes and Jack Flaherty being relatively MLB-ready. And with others being pretty close to being ready, I'd imagine they're probably not looking to sign someone whose going to be unhappy if they get shifted from the rotation to the bullpen. I should have thought to look at how many innings he throws Also, you said Mike Leake, who did you actually mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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