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The STL Cardinals Thread - Wellcome Willson


CWood21
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2 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Its because we want to do those type of deals on our terms.

You are nothing but hoping and wishing at this point. Our LONG history says these just are the deals we make with guys who we have Zero prior history with. We were all excited for us to dive into the SS market last season, and we basically tapped out. We picked Paul DeJong over making a move.

Im leaning on what we have actually done historically. And weve done that without ever having a projected stud prospect at the position that we are talking about. And just like youre saying Winn is 2 years away, what if he tears it up again and has a Walker-like season? And he's pushing to be called up just past Super 2 time in 2024? Both of those options are on the table. 

???? Not sure what you mean by 'on our terms'. They literally had the deal in place for Stanton before he vetoed it, so not sure how that was on our terms. The contract wasn't going to change. Same thing with Price, the reported contract they offered in FA was pretty much the ceiling of what they had at the time, they just got outbid. We were stepping out of their comfort zone in FA spending for that time/what they'd done in past.  Like I said before, they've shown inklings when the opportunity is right and they feel the player/fit is right to step out of how they traditionally operate. So pigeonholing them into one corner only, saying they won't do it because they haven't pulled it off in past doesn't fly.

Last year we all thought they might tap into the SS market, but as we learned, there were a lot of economical circumstances that were unaccounted for at the time and there is no denying those played a role in not just the Cardinals spending (especially on longer term deals), but larger markets as well. So it's more an outlier than anything of real comparison.

Look, I'm not sitting here saying that one of these SS is gonna happen, because I'm not. I'm well aware it's more probable than not they don't come away with one of these two (Turner/Bogaerts), but given their connection to them in past and the skillsets they possess along with what we currently have on the roster, the dot connecting makes sense and is rational. I'm not just going to dismiss the thought/idea because it goes against their past m.o; the direction of a franchise can evolve or simply have a 1 off change for an off-season. 

If Winn continues developing the bat and is ahead of schedule, then we're in a great spot! I literally don't see the issue? He's a guy you have team control of for years and won't be expensive; he's exactly what you want to supplement around the larger deals. You could plug him in at SS, move a guy like Turner to 2B (where he's played before in MLB and probably projects better there towards end of the contract). You could be looking at a core lineup consisting of:

 2B Turner, CF Carlson, 1B Goldschmidt, 3B Arenado, RF Walker, SS Winn

Then you've got other options that you can plug-in (Edman/Donovan/Yepez/Gorman/Nootbarr), or package/deal to go get another piece you might need somewhere else. That's a great problem to have.

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4 hours ago, holt_bruce81 said:

Please tell me Mozeliak’s quote on Paul Dejong is some kind of prank the front office is playing on the fan base. 

Lot of concerning things after reading piece today from Goold. Apparently, the FO is accounting for Adam Wainwright full salary to be on this season's payroll. We all thought the $10M they deferred gave us that flexibility, but apparently not. That contract doesn't look great.

Probably takes us out of running of the premier FA's.

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Im telling you guys, they arent changing their ways. Especially not with more prospects on the cusp than we have had in a while.

I think we grab Christian Vasquez and Jose Iglesias to try and shore up the defense even more and deepen the lineup with major league hitters (both on shorter term deals, 2-3 years).

We run the OF back out there, hoping Carlson & O'Neill stay healthy and bounce back to what they have show us that they can be, while letting Noot/Yepez/Donovan being the 3rd guy until we are ready to bring Walker up.

We also let Gorman/Yepez go at it for the DH spot, and that is the easy hole to fill during the season with the depth of prospects we now have.

MAYBE we sign an arm, but we need to move atleast one (Jack) if not two (Matz) out to make that work.

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6 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Lot of concerning things after reading piece today from Goold. Apparently, the FO is accounting for Adam Wainwright full salary to be on this season's payroll. We all thought the $10M they deferred gave us that flexibility, but apparently not. That contract doesn't look great.

Probably takes us out of running of the premier FA's.

You got a link to that article?  Why would you defer money if it's effectively being spent this year?  That doesn't make sense.

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On 11/8/2022 at 1:47 PM, kgarrett12486 said:

???? Not sure what you mean by 'on our terms'. They literally had the deal in place for Stanton before he vetoed it, so not sure how that was on our terms. The contract wasn't going to change. Same thing with Price, the reported contract they offered in FA was pretty much the ceiling of what they had at the time, they just got outbid. We were stepping out of their comfort zone in FA spending for that time/what they'd done in past.  Like I said before, they've shown inklings when the opportunity is right and they feel the player/fit is right to step out of how they traditionally operate. So pigeonholing them into one corner only, saying they won't do it because they haven't pulled it off in past doesn't fly.

You can't deny that the Cardinals generally tend to walk away as the bridesmaid rather than the bride with most major FAs.  Even going back to AJ Burnett, the Cardinals have usually been the runner-ups for those big ticket FA additions.  I'm not saying the Cardinals are adverse to big ticket FA, but I do think this is a franchise that prefers it's long-term flexibility.

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6 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I think we grab Christian Vasquez and Jose Iglesias to try and shore up the defense even more and deepen the lineup with major league hitters (both on shorter term deals, 2-3 years).

I'm skeptical that the Cardinals are going to be the ones landing Contreras.  Think the first team that breaks the 5/$100M level ends up with him.  Just can't see the Cardinals handing out that kind of contract and giving up the draft pick on top of that.  I think it's far more likely we end up swinging a deal for a catcher via trade than signing Contreras.  Honestly wouldn't surprise me if the catcher carousel ended up with Contreras in Houston and Vasquez in St. Louis on a modest 2 year deal.

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7 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

MAYBE we sign an arm, but we need to move atleast one (Jack) if not two (Matz) out to make that work.

Are there any SPs that are really worth shelling out big bucks to?  deGrom and Verlander both have QOs attached to them, so you're forking over a pick for them.  Carlos Rodon is out there and doesn't have a QO attached to him.  Those are really the only impact starters.  Kershaw probably goes back to the Dodgers, hard to imagine him in another uniform.  You could sign someone like Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Anderson, etc. and hope you don't get burned again.  Feels like our rotation is going to be Wainwright, Flaherty, Matz, Montgomery, and Quintana next year.  Would love to see them buy low on a guy and make the loser end up in the bullpen.

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Free Agency
Re-sign LHP Jose Quintana to a 2 year, $24M deal ($10M/$12M/$14M TO, $2M buyout)
Sign C Christian Vasquez to a 2 year, $16M deal ($8M/$8M)

C - Christian Vasquez [$8M]
1B - Paul Goldschmidt [$26M]
2B - Brendan Donovan [MIN]
SS - Tommy Edman [$4.3M]
3B - Nolan Arenado [$13M]
LF - Tyler O'Neill [$5.1M]
CF - Dylan Carlson [MIN]
RF - Lars Nootbaar [MIN]
DH - Nolan Gorman [MIN]

SP - Jack Flaherty [$5.1M]
SP - Adam Wainwright [$10M]
SP - Jordan Montgomery  [$10.1M]
SP - Jose Quintana [$10M]
SP - Steven Matz [$10.5M]

RP - Jordan Hicks [$1.6M]
RP - Ryan Helsley [$2.4M]
RP - Giovanny Gallegos [$4.75M]
RP - Genesis Cabera [$1.2]
RP - Dakota Hudson [$2.7M]

C - Andrew Knizner [$1M]
MIF - Paul DeJong [$9.17M]
OF - Alec Burleson [MIN]

Feels like this is inevitable.

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5 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Free Agency
Re-sign LHP Jose Quintana to a 2 year, $24M deal ($10M/$12M/$14M TO, $2M buyout)
Sign C Christian Vasquez to a 2 year, $16M deal ($8M/$8M)

C - Christian Vasquez [$8M]
1B - Paul Goldschmidt [$26M]
2B - Brendan Donovan [MIN]
SS - Tommy Edman [$4.3M]
3B - Nolan Arenado [$13M]
LF - Tyler O'Neill [$5.1M]
CF - Dylan Carlson [MIN]
RF - Lars Nootbaar [MIN]
DH - Nolan Gorman [MIN]

SP - Jack Flaherty [$5.1M]
SP - Adam Wainwright [$10M]
SP - Jordan Montgomery  [$10.1M]
SP - Jose Quintana [$10M]
SP - Steven Matz [$10.5M]

RP - Jordan Hicks [$1.6M]
RP - Ryan Helsley [$2.4M]
RP - Giovanny Gallegos [$4.75M]
RP - Genesis Cabera [$1.2]
RP - Dakota Hudson [$2.7M]

C - Andrew Knizner [$1M]
MIF - Paul DeJong [$9.17M]
OF - Alec Burleson [MIN]

Feels like this is inevitable.

Looks like the Cardinal way. Continue sitting on that money DeWitt. Another first round exit.

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13 hours ago, CWood21 said:

You can't deny that the Cardinals generally tend to walk away as the bridesmaid rather than the bride with most major FAs.  Even going back to AJ Burnett, the Cardinals have usually been the runner-ups for those big ticket FA additions.  I'm not saying the Cardinals are adverse to big ticket FA, but I do think this is a franchise that prefers it's long-term flexibility.

I already acknowledged that they have been runner-ups on the high profile FA's in my prior post, so not sure what you're getting at? I never denied they were.

I was saying that just because the track history has had us as 2nd place finishers, doesn't mean they haven't shown the willingness to throw out a large deal if the fit/player is right. That is something that can't be denied.

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14 hours ago, CWood21 said:

You got a link to that article?  Why would you defer money if it's effectively being spent this year?  That doesn't make sense.

It's a pay/subscription through STL Post dispatch. You can probably look it up on that site (STLtoday.com) if your new, they give you a certain amount of free views. I unfortunately am out and can't share my PII. 

EDIT: Here is the link, not sure if you can view or not?

https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/a-payroll-primer-exploring-the-questions-complexities-of-cardinals-spending-for-2023/article_74110227-ef34-56f1-995d-904f1f24e892.html

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17 hours ago, ttitansfan4life said:

Wait I thought we couldn’t call the front office and DeWitt cheap? Cardinal fans actually thought this team would spend big on a premier FA 🤣

Who said that? I don't think anyone gave that notion. if anything, I've been the one throwing out the options on SS', but even I acknowledged it was slim at best. And that was before learning of how they're structuring the 2023 payroll, which pretty much makes it not feasible now. 

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11 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Are there any SPs that are really worth shelling out big bucks to?  deGrom and Verlander both have QOs attached to them, so you're forking over a pick for them.  Carlos Rodon is out there and doesn't have a QO attached to him.  Those are really the only impact starters.  Kershaw probably goes back to the Dodgers, hard to imagine him in another uniform.  You could sign someone like Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Anderson, etc. and hope you don't get burned again.  Feels like our rotation is going to be Wainwright, Flaherty, Matz, Montgomery, and Quintana next year.  Would love to see them buy low on a guy and make the loser end up in the bullpen.

The only one I was really thinking we could go after is Rondon, but like I said, we would need to move someone else. Honestly Im not even sure we bring back Quintana at this point (I want to, dont get me wrong) but I really think they are content to go with the 5 vets we have, and lean on the young guys to supplement when they inevitably get hurt.

Going off of our previous posts, and what Goold wrote recently, after signing Waino we are looking at somewhere around $164m in current commitments. Its unlikely we are able to completely shed DeJong's or even VerHagen's deal, so unlikely we get any breathing room there.

Goold also seemed to suggest the "Increased payroll" would be like $180m, which only gives us $16m or so to make moves. Even if we are being very generous and say $185m thats only $21m, so I dont know where these pipe dreams of a Top SS, plus a starting Catcher, plus a front line Arm are coming from...

If we settle on Christian Vasquez as the C, and we are generous to the Cardinals saying he gets $7m per, were still looking at like $13m left (AT MOST) to spend elsewhere

Im still saying $8m for Vasquez and $5m for Iglesias and we call it an offseason. Unless there is some massive trade waiting to be had, I think thats all we are really looking at.

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