New trade value chart

[paul-mac]

The Jimmy Johnson one overvalues the higher picks but I think the Rich Hill one undervalues them. The correct answer is probably somewhere in between.

 

 

Also, these charts are just a guide really. It’s always supply and demand. A team that really wants to move down might be willing to do so cheaply. On the other hand, if there’s a bunch of teams wanting to move up it can set off a bidding war. 

[Teen Girl Squad]

8 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

The Jimmy Johnson one overvalues the higher picks but I think the Rich Hill one undervalues them. The correct answer is probably somewhere in between.

 

 

Also, these charts are just a guide really. It’s always supply and demand. A team that really wants to move down might be willing to do so cheaply. On the other hand, if there’s a bunch of teams wanting to move up it can set off a bidding war. 

I think the latter point is the one many people into team building miss. Ultimately with something as imprecise as the NFL draft is, there is only so much certainty one can get from expected value. The point of the chart is merely to make sure you're not wildly misappropriating resources. Trying to skim off minor amount of draft value probably isn't a winning strategy either. The JJ chart is actually rather good given how it was invented, though modern ones are definitely better. Thats why I'm ultimately not too concerned about which trade chart is the absolute best (I like PFF mostly because I think that does the best job of isolating players from their situation but its mostly inline with all of the other modern charts).

[incognito_man]

charts really, really need to be tailored for each class as well. Need to map them against your grades for the class.

I don't think there's one chart that is "best" for all years. 

[paul-mac]

33 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

charts really, really need to be tailored for each class as well. Need to map them against your grades for the class.

I don't think there's one chart that is "best" for all years. 

I do like the charts that actually try to statistically quantify the careers that players picked in a particular range have, on average. The Jimmy Johnson chart was just vibes. 

[Danger]

The OTC is straight up hot dog water.

[Techbert]

14 hours ago, Teen Girl Squad said:

Wouldn't stun me if Baalke was one of the last holdouts using the JJ chart.

I use the JJ chart when I trade down, because I think it overvalues high picks. I use some of the other charts when I trade up. Would not surprise me if Baalke is the same way.

Generally, I think trading up is a sign of desperation or anxiety, and those emotions cause people to rationalize overpaying. You may WANT to trade down, but you are never desperate to trade down.

[Teen Girl Squad]

3 hours ago, Techbert said:

I use the JJ chart when I trade down, because I think it overvalues high picks. I use some of the other charts when I trade up. Would not surprise me if Baalke is the same way.

Generally, I think trading up is a sign of desperation or anxiety, and those emotions cause people to rationalize overpaying. You may WANT to trade down, but you are never desperate to trade down.

I never considered that but I could totally see teams having multiple trade charts and trying to use one (notably Jimmy's) to force a higher price for the trade down.

[incognito_man]

On 4/28/2023 at 6:34 PM, Danger said:

The OTC is straight up hot dog water.

Or, maybe the "conventional wisdom" is and theirs based on reality isn't.