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2018 Free Agency targets


AZBearsFan

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9 hours ago, G08 said:

His average depth of route last season per reception was 3.5 yards.

10.5 feet.

 

NO!

THIS is why what he does is replaceable to me. There are 40 WR in the league who can routinely turn 4 yard quick hits into 9 yard gains. It’s not special in any way. 

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8 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I am not sure why we throw “slot wr” out like some sort of so slur.

Production is production. I don’t care where it comes from.

980 yards on 112 catches is **** production, Windy. That’s the WR equivalent to a RB averaging 20 carries for 68 yards every week. The end result is a 1100 yard season, but it takes 320 carries to get there. Nagy got the job because his offense makes explosive plays all over the place. 112 catches for 980 yards is the opposite of that. 10.1 career ypc is the opposite of that. 

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1. With all due respect to Moon Mullin’s experience covering the Bears, he’s a pretty big speculator who doesn’t break much of anything. Of all of the local beat writers, I don’t feel like what he says holds much water compared to the others.

2. If Jordan Howard doesn’t fit the system, he still needs to be traded while his value is high. Sure, he’s a productive back with great vision. At the same time, he can’t catch at all and he doesn’t have a second gear. It’s the reason why he was a fifth round pick.

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1 hour ago, IronMike84 said:

1. With all due respect to Moon Mullin’s experience covering the Bears, he’s a pretty big speculator who doesn’t break much of anything. Of all of the local beat writers, I don’t feel like what he says holds much water compared to the others.

2. If Jordan Howard doesn’t fit the system, he still needs to be traded while his value is high. Sure, he’s a productive back with great vision. At the same time, he can’t catch at all and he doesn’t have a second gear. It’s the reason why he was a fifth round pick.

It’s not that he can’t catch at all - he’s got 52 catches in 2 years (82 targets). He’s just not reliable at it. You can’t throw to him in a key situation with confidence. That can largely be fixed or at least significantly improved upon through repetition though. I’d be surprised if they don’t send him home from minicamp with a jugs machine given the importance of the RB passing game to Nagy’s offense. 

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2 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

It’s not that he can’t catch at all - he’s got 52 catches in 2 years (82 targets). He’s just not reliable at it. You can’t throw to him in a key situation with confidence. That can largely be fixed or at least significantly improved upon through repetition though. I’d be surprised if they don’t send him home from minicamp with a jugs machine given the importance of the RB passing game to Nagy’s offense. 

He is also super limited in the routes that he can run.

They have Hunt running WR routes.

Howard is not running an option route out of the slot like Hunt does.

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1 minute ago, AZBearsFan said:

It’s not that he can’t catch at all - he’s got 52 catches in 2 years (82 targets). He’s just not reliable at it. You can’t throw to him in a key situation with confidence. That can largely be fixed or at least significantly improved upon through repetition though. I’d be surprised if they don’t send him home from minicamp with a jugs machine given the importance of the RB passing game to Nagy’s offense. 

 

The Jugs machine is Sanchez. Give Sanchez a bonus for making Howard run/catch on 100 routes a day, 6 days a week. Don't have to wear out Tru's arm and Sanchez doesn't need to throw in season. lol

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3 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

980 yards on 112 catches is **** production, Windy. That’s the WR equivalent to a RB averaging 20 carries for 68 yards every week. The end result is a 1100 yard season, but it takes 320 carries to get there. Nagy got the job because his offense makes explosive plays all over the place. 112 catches for 980 yards is the opposite of that. 10.1 career ypc is the opposite of that. 

Please go watch some of the games from last season.

You will see Landry being double teamed and constantly forced the ball because Cutler is not allowed to go down field.

You will see defenses squating on the entire offense.

You will see Landry running more bubble screens than you thought possible because of how broken the offense was.

Parker sucked, Julius Thomas sucked, and Cutler just locked on to Landry. Landry is luck to be alive with what Cutler did to him. Staring him down on 3 yard our routes and getting him blasted.

 

Those 2017 stats are a collection of bad cicumstances.

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In 2016, Landry had 12.1 YPC and 12-25+ yard catches (9th in the league), he was 2nd in the league in YAC/catch behind Golden Tate with over 6.

Landry did not all of a sudden become slower, less dynamic or a worse football player in 2017.

The thing that changed was the QB and subsequently the play calling.

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Landry is durable, physical, consistent, and productive.

In the situation we are in I think those have tremendous value. With the recent history of our WR core those have increased value. With where the Bears QB is on his development arch I think those have value.

I am willing to pay for those things. I understand if people are not, I think that approach is counter intuitive to doing everything to ensure Trubisky is successful and doesn’t reflect the financial reality the Bears are in, but I understand a more conservative approach.

But as bad, ordinary, pedestrian, as people may think Landry is. This is a guy that Bill Belichek doubles and is concerned with.

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45 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Please go watch some of the games from last season.

You will see Landry being double teamed and constantly forced the ball because Cutler is not allowed to go down field.

You will see defenses squating on the entire offense.

You will see Landry running more bubble screens than you thought possible because of how broken the offense was.

Parker sucked, Julius Thomas sucked, and Cutler just locked on to Landry. Landry is luck to be alive with what Cutler did to him. Staring him down on 3 yard our routes and getting him blasted.

 

Those 2017 stats are a collection of bad cicumstances.

Thanks for the condescending comment as though I haven’t actually watched him play. Appreciate that. Landry has been an accumulator his whole career to put up numbers. Look at Landry’s production and how that compares to other guys who get 140+ targets. Most produce far more in terms of yardage with that volume. 

2014: http://pfref.com/tiny/MB2Mx

2015: http://pfref.com/tiny/PmfQy

2016: http://pfref.com/tiny/an6Dg

2017: http://pfref.com/tiny/KiHJm

Landry being the guy who got targeted because his teammates were underwhelming doesn’t make him good. It makes him the primary check down guy. He’s damn good in that role, but it leaves an important question to be asked - if he was capable of more then why wasn’t he asked to do more? This isn’t just a 2017 thing for him so you can’t just put it on Cutler - his ypc has been low for his entire career (2016 is the moderate outlier) with a fully sufficient sample size after 400 catches to draw actual conclusions, especially when that is spanning two regimes. He is what he is, and what he isn’t. What he is not is important and is being overlooked - he is not an impact playmaker. This offense doesn’t need an elite checkdown guy. This offense needs difference makers. At what point has Landry really been a difference maker in Miami? He’s been featured since coming into the league. He’s a 6/60 on 9 targets per game guy. That has value, but that is not elite. Not even close. 

Martellus Bennett had 90 catches in 2014 when he got an inflated number of targets (128) giving him elite numbers that made him look like more than what he was. I see Landry the same way. With even 120 targets a year instead of 140 (just 1.25 less per game) now you’re getting a guy who unless he becomes something he’s never been over 400 receptions in 4 years is gonna be good for about 860 yards and making $15M annually. In what NFL is that not a terrible contract? 

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Rumor has it Tyrann Mathieu is going to be cut or traded this offseason. I know we are set at safety, but Mathieu isn't a safety, he is a DB who spends most of his reps at at corner, predominantly NB but has been all over. He plays NB, outside opposite of Peterson, and deep as a safety. His contract is too high, so I am not about to try and trade unless we could restructure, but the kid is 25 and one of the best talents in the game. Would he interest any of you?
 

No way I pay him $14 mil per year like he is owed, but if he hits the market I seriously throw a long term deal out at $8 mil per year and negotiate up (as $8mil per will NOT get him). I love the versatility he offers. In nickel he can hang with fast WRs, play stout vs the run in NB, blitz, and if you want you can double down on pass defense by putting him and Jackson deep, and moving Amos to a LB-like role (like Deone).

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The rest of Mathieus contract after the trade would be 11/11/11/9.5m, without any guarantees since Arizona would have to get the cap hit for his signing bonus.

 

Edit: Looks like he's guaranteed his 2018 salary and 8m of 2019 if we trade for him.

If he's traded/cut Arizona would only take the hit for his signing bonus.

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