Preseason Predictions - 2023 Division Results

[CWood21]

On 9/5/2023 at 9:29 PM, malak1 said:

It's a poor analogy because it assumes that Justin Fields can't and wont improve. The better analogy would be, there are 2 boxes: would you rather take the $3 you know you have with a chance at $100 or the box where you can get $0 with a chance at $100? Actually, I'd argue that Fields has higher upside, so the even better analogy is the following:

($3 OR possible $100) OR ($0 OR possible $95)

It's not a poor analogy when you're banking on a statistical anomaly to happen.  How often do QBs who struggle for their first 2 years in the league suddenly figure things out in Y3?  The closest I can think of is Geno Smith, and it wasn't until his 9th year in the league (doesn't include the 2019 season he wasn't apart of) where he looked like a legitimate franchise QB.  The only reason you're arguing that Fields has more upside is based STRICTLY on his draft status and NOTHING on what he's done thus far.

[RandyMossIsBoss]

Game by game prediction:

AFC East:
1.  Buffalo Bills 12-5*
2.  New York Jets 11-6*
3.  Miami Dolphins 9-8
4.  New England Patriots 6-11

AFC North:
1.  Pittsburgh Steelers 11-6*
2.  Cincinnati Bengals 11-6*
3.  Baltimore Ravens 10-7
4.  Cleveland Browns 8-9

AFC South:
1.  Jacksonville Jaguars 10-7*
2.  Tennessee Titans 6-11
3.  Houston Texans 5-12
4.  Indianapolis Colts 5-12

AFC West:
1.  Kansas City Chiefs 14-3*
2.  San Diego Chargers 11-6*
3.  Denver Broncos 9-8
4.  Las Vegas Raiders 5-12

NFC East:
1.  Dallas Cowboys 12-5*
2.  Philadelphia Eagles 12-5*
3.  Washington Commanders 9-8*
4.  New York Giants 7-10

NFC North:
1.  Green Bay Packers 10-7*
2.  Detroit Lions 10-7*
3.  Minnesota Vikings 8-9
4.  Chicago Bears 6-11

NFC South:
1.  New Orleans Saints 9-8*
2.  Atlanta Falcons 8-9 (lose week 18 NFCS title)
3.  Carolina Panthers 6-11
4.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-14

NFC West:
1.  San Francisco 49ers 11-6*
2.  Seattle Seahawks 9-8
3.  Los Angeles Rams 5-12
4.  Arizona Cardinals 4-13

 

Wildcard
5. Jets over 4. Jaguars
6. Bengals over 3. Steelers
2. Bills over 7. Chargers

5. Eagles over 4. Saints
6. Lions over 3. Packers
2. 49ers over 7. WFT

 

Divisional

2. Bills over 5. Jets
6. Bengals over 1. Chiefs

5. Eagles over 2. 49ers
1. Cowboys over 6. Lions

 

Conference

2. Bills over 6. Bengals

5. Eagles over 1. Cowboys

 

5N. Eagles over 2A. Bills

 

[malak1]

5 hours ago, CWood21 said:

It's not a poor analogy when you're banking on a statistical anomaly to happen.  How often do QBs who struggle for their first 2 years in the league suddenly figure things out in Y3?  The closest I can think of is Geno Smith, and it wasn't until his 9th year in the league (doesn't include the 2019 season he wasn't apart of) where he looked like a legitimate franchise QB.  The only reason you're arguing that Fields has more upside is based STRICTLY on his draft status and NOTHING on what he's done thus far.

To suggest that something won’t happen moving forward because it hasn’t often happened before is just a non-sequitur.

It certainly seems strange that a Jordan Love fan would suggest that a quarterback can’t or won’t improve heading into their 3rd season as a pro. 
 

Not “strictly” on draft status. Fields is the superior athlete with at least a similar arm and has shown to be a better football player at every level of competition thus far. That’s not even a debate at this point in time. 

[CWood21]

6 hours ago, malak1 said:

To suggest that something won’t happen moving forward because it hasn’t often happened before is just a non-sequitur.

It certainly seems strange that a Jordan Love fan would suggest that a quarterback can’t or won’t improve heading into their 3rd season as a pro. 
 

Not “strictly” on draft status. Fields is the superior athlete with at least a similar arm and has shown to be a better football player at every level of competition thus far. That’s not even a debate at this point in time. 

It's not that it can't happen, but that it's very unlikely to happen.  I could argue that Vernon Gholston could be signed by the Bears today and win DPOY of the year.  It's possible, but the odds are beyond a statistical anomaly.  Again, if you've got ANYTHING to prove that those first 2 seasons were the statistical anomaly, history is usually the best indicator for future success.

And I'm not even arguing that Jordan Love is going to be great.  I'm not even sure what Green Bay has in him.  If we're being honest, I think he's probably going to be in that above-average territory (think like Washington Kirk Cousins or Dak Prescott).  But unlike Fields, he hasn't played and hasn't played poorly.  Improvements happen over multiple reps.  Your player should be better at snaps 1000 than than they were at 100.  But at some point, there's a finite number of snaps where the improvement tapers off.  That's why we're talking about whether or not he will have his 5th year option.

And has Fields shown that he's a better football player?  His last year at Ohio State, his WR corps consisted of Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, and Jameson Williams all of whom were FRPs in the last few drafts.  The OL was bolstered by multiple players who are currently on an NFL roster.  Fields played with multiple high-leveled NFL talents.  Can you even name a SINGLE player who Love played with his final year at Utah State that is/was rostered on an NFL roster?

[malak1]

4 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Again, if you've got ANYTHING to prove that those first 2 seasons were the statistical anomaly, history is usually the best indicator for future success.

You're just saying it's not likely. You still presented a disanology. 

 

4 hours ago, CWood21 said:

And I'm not even arguing that Jordan Love is going to be great

I'm not going to be dishonest and speculate on what he will be. But since you're working with probabilities, being a Dak Prescott-tier QB is improbable as well. So, if you are consistent, then you must hold to the position that it is improbable that Jordan Love is that good. It's more probable that he's a bad QB, tbh. Just being consistent. 

 

4 hours ago, CWood21 said:

And has Fields shown that he's a better football player?  His last year at Ohio State, his WR corps consisted of Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, and Jameson Williams all of whom were FRPs in the last few drafts.  The OL was bolstered by multiple players who are currently on an NFL roster.  Fields played with multiple high-leveled NFL talents.  Can you even name a SINGLE player who Love played with his final year at Utah State that is/was rostered on an NFL roster?

None of this is a refutation of what I said. 

Edited September 7, 2023 by malak1

[Soko]

15 hours ago, CWood21 said:

It's not a poor analogy when you're banking on a statistical anomaly to happen.  How often do QBs who struggle for their first 2 years in the league suddenly figure things out in Y3?  The closest I can think of is Geno Smith, and it wasn't until his 9th year in the league (doesn't include the 2019 season he wasn't apart of) where he looked like a legitimate franchise QB.  The only reason you're arguing that Fields has more upside is based STRICTLY on his draft status and NOTHING on what he's done thus far.

All success from all NFL players are statistical anomalies. How many players enter their 4th year with one career start and become Kirk Cousins/Dak Prescott level QBs? 

A lack of precedence for QB success in Fields’ situation is just as damning for Love as it is for Fields. Pretending like it applies to one and not the other is pure homerism.

[Ray Reed]

Isn’t it Bears/Packers week 1? Hell yeah. Let’s all revisit this thread Monday morning 

[CWood21]

6 hours ago, Soko said:

All success from all NFL players are statistical anomalies. How many players enter their 4th year with one career start and become Kirk Cousins/Dak Prescott level QBs? 

A lack of precedence for QB success in Fields’ situation is just as damning for Love as it is for Fields. Pretending like it applies to one and not the other is pure homerism.

Without context?  Sure.  The fact that he was playing behind a future HoF player who was MVP in 2 of the 3 seasons that Jordan Love was under contract?  Nope.

[Soko]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Without context?  Sure.  The fact that he was playing behind a future HoF player who was MVP in 2 of the 3 seasons that Jordan Love was under contract?  Nope.

Sure. Let’s add context. 

Let’s look at all the backup QBs who backed up HOF QBs, and see how they did in the league. I’d be willing to be that becoming Kirk Cousins level is still…an anomaly. 

Unless you’re implying that adding specific context makes Jordan Love someone we can’t apply precedence to? Then why wouldn’t we do the same with Fields, simply calling him “a QB entering Y3”?

[CWood21]

On 9/7/2023 at 10:54 PM, Soko said:

Sure. Let’s add context. 

Let’s look at all the backup QBs who backed up HOF QBs, and see how they did in the league. I’d be willing to be that becoming Kirk Cousins level is still…an anomaly. 

Unless you’re implying that adding specific context makes Jordan Love someone we can’t apply precedence to? Then why wouldn’t we do the same with Fields, simply calling him “a QB entering Y3”?

How many former FRPs backed up a HoF QB who won MVP in 2 of the 3 seasons that that the former FRP was behind them?  I can't think of a single one.

[Soko]

58 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

How many former FRPs backed up a HoF QB who won MVP in 2 of the 3 seasons that that the former FRP was behind them?  I can't think of a single one.

 

On 9/7/2023 at 11:54 PM, Soko said:

Unless you’re implying that adding specific context makes Jordan Love someone we can’t apply precedence to? Then why wouldn’t we do the same with Fields, simply calling him “a QB entering Y3”?

How many FRPs from Ohio State got drafted by the Chicago Bears and had a god awful OL, bad run game, and league worst WR corp? I can’t think of a single one!

[Ray Reed]

 

[CWood21]

3 hours ago, Soko said:

How many FRPs from Ohio State got drafted by the Chicago Bears and had a god awful OL, bad run game, and league worst WR corp? I can’t think of a single one!

I mean by that logic...every bust shouldn't be considered a bust because it's out of their control.  Here's the reality.  Justin Fields has been miserable in his 2 years in the NFL.  Jordan Love hasn't played.  Unless you think Jordan Love is legitimately going to be worse or you have something to support your belief that Justin Fields is going to suddenly figure things out that isn't tied to his draft status, your argument has absolutely no weight and you're merely here to be a contrarian.  If you want to have a legitimate discussion as to why you believe Justin Fields is going to suddenly figure things out this year season, I'm all ears.

[Soko]

7 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I mean by that logic...every bust shouldn't be considered a bust because it's out of their control.  Here's the reality.  Justin Fields has been miserable in his 2 years in the NFL.  Jordan Love hasn't played.  Unless you think Jordan Love is legitimately going to be worse or you have something to support your belief that Justin Fields is going to suddenly figure things out that isn't tied to his draft status, your argument has absolutely no weight and you're merely here to be a contrarian.  If you want to have a legitimate discussion as to why you believe Justin Fields is going to suddenly figure things out this year season, I'm all ears.

Yeah, no. That’s not what I commented on at all, Love vs Fields. I was simply pointing out the giant hypocrisy in calling Fields’ potential success something that’d go against established precedent and an anamoly, but the same not applying for Love. Totally silly.

[Raves]

20 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I mean by that logic...every bust shouldn't be considered a bust because it's out of their control.  Here's the reality.  Justin Fields has been miserable in his 2 years in the NFL.  Jordan Love hasn't played.  Unless you think Jordan Love is legitimately going to be worse or you have something to support your belief that Justin Fields is going to suddenly figure things out that isn't tied to his draft status, your argument has absolutely no weight and you're merely here to be a contrarian.  If you want to have a legitimate discussion as to why you believe Justin Fields is going to suddenly figure things out this year season, I'm all ears.

A bust can be a bust regardless of circumstance once they are done playing, but the context around why they were a bust is just more defined.  For example JaMarcus Russell will always be a bust because he was just lazy and no matter where he was he was going to fail.  David Carr had a horrendous team and OL around him and he got shellshocked before he could even develop into an NFL QB, so he might've turned into something if not for his original team.

I mean Alex Smith with the 49ers for the most part was a bust, but he was good with Reid and the Chiefs.  Fields so far has had a horrible team around him, now that they've invested in more talent to help him out, we'll finally get to see if it was just him being bad, or the team around him being bad and him not being able to overcome it.