2024 NFL Draft- First Round Pick

[LeotheLion]

3 hours ago, BStanRamFan said:

The entire Trey Lance situation should prove which one is easier.

49ers thought they found "the guy". Moved up, trade assets, draft Lance.

After 2 seasons they bailed and went with building around a late round over performer in Purdy. His story is rare, but when you get that level of production on a 7th round contract, you cannot pass up the window you have.

Mahomes/Allen/Burrow all are able to improve the level of play around them. It's rare.

Hurts I'd argue has the most talented roster in football. And we'll see what PHI does in 2024/2025/2026/2027 cause that's when his cap hit balloons. This year is still cheap ($24Mil)

Lawrence...tbd.

 

The 49ers one goes either way. Because the closest the 49ers have been to winning a SB was with Jimmy on a larger contract. I also don't think the 49ers blueprint is very realistic to follow. They have landed so many elite players in the later rounds. We have had a good track record of doing so as well but Kupp so far is the only blue chipper we've drafted past round 1. The 49ers have gotten Kittle, Warner, Deebo, Greenlaw, Hufanga, and Purdy. 

[Dr LBC]

4 hours ago, BStanRamFan said:

After 2 seasons they bailed and went with building around a late round over performer in Purdy.

That's not representative of the truth, though.  The team that Purdy came into was largely (minus the trade for McCaffrey having not been executed yet) built by the time he came in.  It was a Niners team that was the team we beat the previous year in the conference championship game.

[JonStark]

QB or LT. That's all I want. 

[BStanRamFan]

14 hours ago, JonStark said:

QB or LT. That's all I want. 

Sit Stafford the rest of the way. Let Rypien or some other backup lock us in for a top 5 pick.

Should have sold at the deadline. 

[NVRamsFan]

49 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

Sit Stafford the rest of the way. Let Rypien or some other backup lock us in for a top 5 pick.

Should have sold at the deadline. 

Sold what exactly

[BStanRamFan]

1 hour ago, NVRamsFan said:

Sold what exactly

Only two players of value: Kupp/AD

We likely would have gotten a first from KC for Kupp (28-32) and a first for AD from Detroit or Pitt (16-30).

 

Have 3 firsts next year. Start it all over with a bunch of cap space and a QB on a rookie deal. Back to square one. 

[Dr LBC]

2 hours ago, BStanRamFan said:

Only two players of value: Kupp/AD

We likely would have gotten a first from KC for Kupp (28-32) and a first for AD from Detroit or Pitt (16-30).

 

Have 3 firsts next year. Start it all over with a bunch of cap space and a QB on a rookie deal. Back to square one. 

Let me guess, you didn't look at the contracts of the players before you just up and brought them up to sell?  Kupp just restructured this season; the dead money cap hit (which we don't have the space to take and would have to pass into next season) would be crippling and the way that Kupp's deal was restructured into makes him (even as Cooper Freakin' Kupp) less valuable to suitors because of the contract he'd bring over with him in terms of what guarantees had already triggered and that for a 30-year-old WR - and while I realize Kupp's game has never been built off of physical gifts, his recurring injury issues only become more of a flag the older he gets.  And I'll be the irrational one here, if this is even an irrational position to take: Cooper Kupp is worth more than a 2nd round pick (which is what we'd be offered) to this team.

Donald we're less in a pinch in terms of contract because he's only got one year left after this, but any team trading for him would legitimately be paying for a 1.5 year rental for a guy that, yes, is Aaron Donald, but after that 1.5 years is just as likely to decide to hang 'em up as he is to demand yet another market-setting deal at age 34.  And the most recent (and it's still not a great one) comparable trade value we'd have to argue would be our own 2nd and 3rd for Von Miller in 2021, when we were a team that was clearly pushing all-in and were Super Bowl or bust, and I'm not seeing a team out there in a similar situation with a clear need for AD (beyond the fact that he's AD) - certainly not Detroit or Pittsburgh.  The only Super Bowl or bust teams that are really out there right now are KC, Philly, and probably the Niners.

[BStanRamFan]

19 hours ago, Dr LBC said:

Let me guess, you didn't look at the contracts of the players before you just up and brought them up to sell?  Kupp just restructured this season; the dead money cap hit (which we don't have the space to take and would have to pass into next season) would be crippling and the way that Kupp's deal was restructured into makes him (even as Cooper Freakin' Kupp) less valuable to suitors because of the contract he'd bring over with him in terms of what guarantees had already triggered and that for a 30-year-old WR - and while I realize Kupp's game has never been built off of physical gifts, his recurring injury issues only become more of a flag the older he gets.  And I'll be the irrational one here, if this is even an irrational position to take: Cooper Kupp is worth more than a 2nd round pick (which is what we'd be offered) to this team.

I didn't. I brought up the only two players of value the Rams have.

 

Good point on Kupp.

Disagree on AD. Think he could fetch a 1RP. A contender is viewing their last first as the equivalent value of a 2nd and adding AD for their Super Bowl run is worth that. Detroit/KC immediately come to mind. 

[Dr LBC]

We have players of value, but not players that we (and by that I mean "fans") are eager to part with.... and that's because those guys are young and on rookie deals.  We could recoup significant ROI on Puka right now, not a 1st, but we could get a 2RP (and I'm not even saying I'd make that deal, just pointing out reality), but we wouldn't do that deal.  .

All this said, that's exactly why I would devote premium assets - especially 1RP's - to premium positions of need and not those that will be an eventual need.  My main reason for not stressing drafting a successor to Stafford unless value legit falls into out laps is that 1) I genuinely feel that the results have born out that vets faire better in this McVay/Shanny/McDonald/whoever scheme than rookies do.  So I'd rather lay the base for what has produced the most consistent success with the modern examples of this system as possible (and leaning on having the mostly-perennial DPOY on our defense isn't dependable) - which to me seems like adding premium assets to the trenches, where possible.

[Dr LBC]

OK, so looking at a rough idea of where we'll be picking, I doubt he falls as far as us given the propensity of the position to get pushed up, but - without knowing who we'd be passing on - if Bo Nix is available to us without a trade-up, I'd genuinely consider it.  The ceiling is there and his floor is high enough that if a Stafford injury forced him into action early he should be able to hold water.  But his fit in McVay's system is kinda insanely good.

Which EDGE guys are going to be there is a dart throw at this point, as testing numbers are going to (and have historically) vaulted guys up the board, so the only guys you can be relatively certain will be there are the highly-productive guys who most are tabbing to be average to underwhelming athletic testers (think your George Karlaftis types from the past draft class).  I'm not throwing that dart until we get to at least Senior Bowl week.

Corners - we can chuck the top 3 likely, just because the premium on the position will likely put them out of our reach.  DeJeune and his versatility seems like a fit, though I'm not sure how great a need a CB who isn't a lockdown boundary CB actually is.

The OT class is top-loaded, but OT is always hard to predict because the runs happen at least twice in R1 and teams have traditionally been willing to reach for those "considered-fringe" R1/2 guys.  Mims has been a popular projection for us early on and I can see it, but Les has tended to roll the dice on ceiling guys in the trenches when they're capable of projecting at another position on the line as well and I'm not sure Mims has the snaps, period, to project whether he could redshirt at guard for a year before kicking to succeed either Hav or Jackson.  I could actually see Jordan Morgan and Tyler Guyton being dark horses for us because of their projectability to McVay's system and their ability to get minutes at guard in the interim to a tackle spot opening for them (Morgan, I think, might actually challenge Alaric for starting LOT out the gate).

[Football_Bachelor08]

Since Stafford will be turning 36 before next season and the Rams are reloading, I think the Rams might move up to take a QB in the 1st round.

Although that's only if they can effectively address any of the other positions of need in free agency. If not, they probably use it on a LT.

[BStanRamFan]

On 1/10/2024 at 6:10 AM, Football_Bachelor08 said:

Since Stafford will be turning 36 before next season and the Rams are reloading, I think the Rams might move up to take a QB in the 1st round.

Although that's only if they can effectively address any of the other positions of need in free agency. If not, they probably use it on a LT.

I, again, was very wrong about this team and how the season would shake out. However, I still feel a QB should be taken this year. It's pretty deep in my opinion. There are a few guys in the mid-first to late 2nd that I think could benefit greatly from sitting behind Stafford a year.

Jayden Daniels

Michael Penix

JJ McCartyh

Bo Nix

Quinn Ewers

Snagging one of those would be awesome.

[Dr LBC]

On 1/11/2024 at 5:11 AM, BStanRamFan said:

I, again, was very wrong about this team and how the season would shake out. However, I still feel a QB should be taken this year. It's pretty deep in my opinion. There are a few guys in the mid-first to late 2nd that I think could benefit greatly from sitting behind Stafford a year.

Jayden Daniels

Michael Penix

JJ McCartyh

Bo Nix

Quinn Ewers

Snagging one of those would be awesome.

I want no part of McCarthy or Ewers.  Both are Day 3 guys propped up by collegiate success.  And Penix really doesn't fit the system (maybe McVay feels like he can break him of the bad habits that are literally detrimental to the system the way Shanny felt he could - but didn't - Trey Lance, but I'm not counting on it).

Edited January 12 by Dr LBC

[jrry32]

4 hours ago, Dr LBC said:

I want no part of McCarthy or Ewers.  Both are Day 3 guys propped up by collegiate success.  And Penix really doesn't fit the system (maybe McVay feels like he can break him of the bad habits that are literally detrimental to the system the way Shanny felt he could - but didn't - Trey Lance, but I'm not counting on it).

People will call me crazy, but I'd strongly consider Spencer Rattler on Day 2. This year, he lost his #1 and #3 WRs, had no running game for most of the season, had a very bad OL, and a defense that sucked eggs for most of the year. Yet, he went out there and played quality football week after week. He has grown a lot from the immature kid he was early in his career, and that first round talent is still there. Yes, he still has some decision-making lapses (so does our starting QB), but he also has high-end starter tools. We're talking a rifle for an arm, a quick release, the accuracy to make "wow" throws, and above average mobility (with a strong knack for improvising and buying time behind the LOS).

I think his most realistic comparison is Baker Mayfield. But you definitely see flashes of elite QBs in him at times (guys like Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, etc.). I'd love to see what McVay could do with him, particularly if he has Stafford to learn from and a year or two to develop.

[Football_Bachelor08]

So with Dotson re-signed, who do you anticipate the Rams selecting in the first round?