The MVP race

[TheKillerNacho]

21 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Brock Purdy       | 11-3 | 69.8 comp | 3,933 tYds | 9.9 ypa | 31 tTds |  9 to | 119.0 rtg

Dak Prescott      | 10-4 | 68.8 comp | 3,851 tYds | 7.5 ypa | 30 tTds |  8 to | 104.0 rtg

Lamar Jackson  | 11-3 | 66.3 comp | 3,846 tYds | 7.7 ypa | 22 tTds | 13 to | 96.5 rtg

Josh Allen          |  8-6 | 66.3 comp | 3,939 tYds | 7.2 ypa | 37 tTds | 17 to | 93.2 rtg

Tua Tagovailoa       | 10-4 | 71.0 comp | 3,976 tYds | 8.6 ypa | 25 tTds |  14 to | 106.0 rtg

 

Not saying he should be above Purdy rn but he should be in the discussion if Jackson & Allen are imo.

[AngusMcFife]

Is Purdy the 5th best player on the 49ers offense? After CMC, T. Williams, Kittle, Deebo? 

IMO if you do power rankings by position, CMC, Williams, and Kittle would be top 5 players at their position, and Deebo would be top 7 or 8 (when healthy, based on his versatility). Purdy might slide in the top 10, so he'd be the 5th best by my count but I don't follow the 49ers very closely. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

Just now, AngusMcFife said:

Is Purdy the 5th best player on the 49ers offense? After CMC, T. Williams, Kittle, Deebo? 

IMO if you do power rankings by position, CMC, Williams, and Kittle would be top 5 players at their position, and Deebo would be top 7 or 8 (when healthy, based on his versatility). Purdy might slide in the top 10, so he'd be the 5th best by my count but I don't follow the 49ers very closely. 

I mean being top 5 in their position does not really much since every position has a different level of talent. Being a top 5 TE is not the same thing as being say, a top 5 WR. The WR talent is far superior at the moment. A top 5 DE is different than a top 5 safety.

And positional value is absolutely a thing. Being a top 10 QB>>>>top 2 TE. Top 10 QB>>>>Best RB 

All these rankings of players you have listed are more proven and have done it for longer. Who is to say that Purdy won't be consensus top 5 QB in 2-3 years from now? He can play the same exact way but will be elevated off just doing it for multiple seasons and having more accolades. 

[Soggust]

1 minute ago, adamq said:

I would give it to Lamar right now. When I think MVP, I think of a "putting the team on his back" type of player. Purdy is playing at an exceptional level, but Lamar doesn't have the supporting cast & they are both leading the 1 seed in their conference. The counting stats don't mean a lot to me when you compare the two, Baltimore's style of play will lead to less touchdowns/yards compared to the high flying 49ers

I think this is a good take, but one thing I wonder (and maybe this is a really BS perspective I'm not committing to but I think it's worth attacking the idea) - should a multiple-time MVP require a bit more separation from the field than a first time winner?

I instinctually think "nah", but I know Nick Wright made that take in the NBA MVP voting about "do we really want Jokic held in the elites of multi time winners blah blah". I hate to frame it like this because I know I'm not selling my case well, but do we want to hold Lamar in that multi time MVP vein lol?

I just know that even I feel that way when we talk about Kevin Stefanski winning a second COTY in 4 years when he's never done better than third in his division, despite having a good argument this year.

It's also why I've excluded Mahomes all year. It's not just his numbers and stats, but this season has been no where near a 3x MVP season. I was saying it in October. I'm not saying they need to have a historic statistical season, but I think there is a theory that it should be clear.

 

[Jameson_Neat]

4 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Tua Tagovailoa       | 10-4 | 71.0 comp | 3,976 tYds | 8.6 ypa | 25 tTds |  18 to | 106.0 rtg

 

Not saying he should be above Purdy rn but he should be in the discussion if Jackson & Allen are imo.

Yeah, it seems odd to have all of the 10+ win teams have their QBs in the discussion except Tua and Goff.  At least Miami has another player in consideration.

[Soggust]

6 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Tua Tagovailoa       | 10-4 | 71.0 comp | 3,976 tYds | 8.6 ypa | 25 tTds |  18 to | 106.0 rtg

 

Not saying he should be above Purdy rn but he should be in the discussion if Jackson & Allen are imo.

Fair enough! Was definitely not excluding him intentionally.

I also think he only has 15 to, but my stats could be wrong.

[TheKillerNacho]

2 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Fair enough! Was definitely not excluding him intentionally.

I also think he only has 15 to, but my stats could be wrong.

Youre right

acutally its only 14, I was reading his fumbles backwards (12 fumbles 8 recovered by his team)

[adamq]

8 minutes ago, Soggust said:

should a multiple-time MVP require a bit more separation from the field than a first time winner?

When there is no set criteria I think everything has to be considered, so i think there is something to be said with that argument. But then again with that argument you get nonsense like Steve Nash winning MVP over Shaq

Edited December 18, 2023 by adamq

[AngusMcFife]

10 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I mean being top 5 in their position does not really much since every position has a different level of talent. Being a top 5 TE is not the same thing as being say, a top 5 WR. The WR talent is far superior at the moment. A top 5 DE is different than a top 5 safety.

I don't agree and think this would be pretty difficult to prove. 

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And positional value is absolutely a thing. Being a top 10 QB>>>>top 2 TE. Top 10 QB>>>>Best RB 

I agree, but we just don't know how the QB would perform if he wasn't surrounded by elite players and elite coaching.

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All these rankings of players you have listed are more proven and have done it for longer. Who is to say that Purdy won't be consensus top 5 QB in 2-3 years from now? He can play the same exact way but will be elevated off just doing it for multiple seasons and having more accolades. 

I'm just going off what I perceive their rankings to be at this point. If you had 32 GM just picking players based on position, CMC, Williams, Kittle, and Deebo go off the board earlier than Purdy. 

EDIT: The difference between Purdy and Lamar is with Purdy you have the 5th best player on the best offense, and with Lamar you have the best player on a top-5 offense. 

Edited December 18, 2023 by AngusMcFife

[J-ALL-DAY]

8 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

I don't agree and think this would be pretty difficult to prove. 

I agree, but we just don't know how the QB would perform if he wasn't surrounded by elite players and elite coaching.

I'm just going off what I perceive their rankings to be at this point. If you had 32 GM just picking players based on position, CMC, Williams, Kittle, and Deebo go off the board earlier than Purdy. 

EDIT: The difference between Purdy and Lamar is with Purdy you have the 5th best player on the best offense, and with Lamar you have the best player on a top-5 offense. 

Difficult to prove? How would it be difficult to prove? Go ahead and list the top 5 WRs or top 5 DEs and then list the top 5 TEs. You are telling me there is equal talent? 

I mean it's fine if you want to pick Lamar as your MVP. But if you are talking about carrying a team, what's his argument over Allen? The latter has more total yards, far more total TDs and his team isn't as good as the Ravens. Should Allen not be the clear cut favorite off that argument? 

[Soggust]

25 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

All these rankings of players you have listed are more proven and have done it for longer. Who is to say that Purdy won't be consensus top 5 QB in 2-3 years from now? He can play the same exact way but will be elevated off just doing it for multiple seasons and having more accolades. 

Again, I'm just going to keep throwing this out there until my point gets destroyed, bc I know I'm wrong, but I'm not sure where.

Who is to say he ain't a top 3 QB, right now? 

Now he's obviously not going to beat Mahomes' resume or Rodgers legacy blah blah no matter how well he plays. But if he goes Flacco in the playoffs and they win a SB, is he still a bum? Does he need to play well for multiple years to win a single year MVP? If he wins a SB - why isn't he better than Burrow and Allen? Because Allen is flashier? How has Burrow played when he had bad support?

Like, what about the eye test tells us he's not an elite QB? I don't watch every 49ers game, but of the ones I've seen, the dude throws with anticipation. He fires at the top of his drop. He eludes pressure. I don't know what I'm supposed to be seeing wrong.

Isn't part of the reason his receivers get open is him leading them and knowing the plays inside out? The QB game is not all improv backyard football. So why can't he be Tom Brady and win via mental, consistency, accuracy and execution?

Like, what tells us he's not the best player on the 49ers? Or even the league, this year? Every answer I hear involves some hypothetical where the 49ers are the "Pee Wee Cowboys" playing against the Little Giants.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Soggust

[AngusMcFife]

4 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Again, I'm just going to keep throwing this out there until my point gets destroyed.

Who is to say he ain't a top 3 QB, right now? 

Now he's obviously not going to beat Mahomes' resume or Rodgers legacy blah blah no matter how well he plays. But if he goes Flacco in the playoffs and they win a SB, is he still a bum? Does he need to play well for multiple years to win a single year MVP? If he wins a SB - why isn't he better than Burrow and Allen? Because Allen is flashier? How has Burrow played when he had bad support?

Like, what about the eye test tells us he's not an elite QB? I don't watch every 49ers game, but of the ones I've seen, the dude throws with anticipation. He fires at the top of his drop. He eludes pressure. I don't know what I'm supposed to be seeing wrong.

Isn't part of the reason his receivers get open is him leading them and knowing the plays inside out? The QB game is not all improv backyard football. So why can't he be Tom Brady and win via mental, consistency, accuracy and execution?

Like, what tells us he's not the best player on the 49ers? Or even the league, this year? Every answer I hear involves some hypothetical where the 49ers are the "Pee Wee Cowboys" playing against the Little Giants.

You can argue he is a top 3 QB based on stats. If you want to be consistent about it, you would have also argued that Jimmy G was a top 3 QB last year when healthy. Were you making that case?

When watching the 49ers most people observe running backs with huge lanes and WRs running completely wide open with little pressure to the QB. Which is why a mediocre QB like Jimmy G could produce like a top 3 QB in this offense. I think Purdy is better than Jimmy G, but I'm hesitant to crown a guy playing with great players, great offensive coaching, and great defense because he hasn't been put in difficult situations. 

[AngusMcFife]

11 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Difficult to prove? How would it be difficult to prove? Go ahead and list the top 5 WRs or top 5 DEs and then list the top 5 TEs. You are telling me there is equal talent? 

They have different skill sets, so I don't know how you want me to compare them. TEs have much greater blocking responsibilities, so they aren't going to put up gaudy receiving stats because they aren't as fast as WRs, but they are much stronger. I don't think that makes them worse players. 

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I mean it's fine if you want to pick Lamar as your MVP.

I'm not endorsing Lamar as MVP unless the Ravens beat the 49ers next Monday. 

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But if you are talking about carrying a team, what's his argument over Allen? The latter has more total yards, far more total TDs and his team isn't as good as the Ravens. Should Allen not be the clear cut favorite off that argument? 

I'm going off the precedent that QB wins are a significant component to who wins MVP. I have been pretty consistent that Allen is the no. 2 behind Mahomes in QB discussions. 

[Soggust]

Just now, AngusMcFife said:

You can argue he is a top 3 QB based on stats. If you want to be consistent about it, you would have also argued that Jimmy G was a top 3 QB last year when healthy. Were you making that case?

I actually have an even hotter take that maybe Jimmy G isn't quite as bad as we all think he is because 6 games with the dumpster fire McDaniels Raiders isn't a great sample size, but I'll save that for another day. 

I don't want to cop out but I can't find a way to look at stats through the first 10 weeks of the 2022 season, so I don't know. For argument's sake, however, let's assume you are right. Then yes, he deserved to be in the week 10 (lol) discussion.

But as we know, the season is long and Jimmy G wasn't able to put up these stats over the course of the season. I don't even think his 2019 numbers are comparable tbh and that was JG's best year. 

 

7 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

When watching the 49ers most people observe running backs with huge lanes and WRs running completely wide open with little pressure to the QB. Which is why a mediocre QB like Jimmy G could produce like a top 3 QB in this offense. I think Purdy is better than Jimmy G, but I'm hesitant to crown a guy playing with great players, great offensive coaching, and great defense because he hasn't been put in difficult situations. 

Baker Mayfield played like a top 3 QB for half a season. Were the 2020 Browns a stacked offense that any QB could succeed in?

Trevor Lawrence played like a top 3 QB for half a season. Were the 2022 Jags a stacked offense that any QB could succeed in?

Kirk Cousin played like a top 3 QB for half of this season. Are the 2023 Vikings a stacked offense that any QB could succeed in?

Why does a traditionally "mediocre" player (shots fired at these guys) playing like a top 3 QB for half the season prove that anyone could perform in that offense?

[AngusMcFife]

5 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Baker Mayfield played like a top 3 QB for half a season. Were the 2020 Browns a stacked offense that any QB could succeed in?

Trevor Lawrence played like a top 3 QB for half a season. Were the 2022 Jags a stacked offense that any QB could succeed in?

Kirk Cousin played like a top 3 QB for half of this season. Are the 2023 Vikings a stacked offense that any QB could succeed in?

Why does a traditionally "mediocre" player (shots fired at these guys) playing like a top 3 QB for half the season prove that anyone could perform in that offense?

I wouldn't say it proves anything, it just makes folks suspicious and wanting to see if Purdy can thrive in difficult situations when Jimmy G was lighting up defenses just last year in this same offense (without CMC for most his games in 2022). Jimmy G had a 111 rating and 9/1 TD/INT with CMC.