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Trevor Lawrence and the Jags - Year 4 (T-Law is what he is)


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37 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

Lawrence, Herbert and Jackson all have similar numbers over their last 2 seasons worth of games (34 games). It’s not that far fetched.

2022 + 2023

Lawrence: 33 g | 17-16 w-l | 65.9% comp | 8,759 totYards | 265.4 totYPG | 54 totTD : 38 TO | 91.9 rtg 
Jackson:  28 g | 21-7  w-l | 65.1% comp | 7,705 totYards | 275.2 totYPG | 49 totTD : 22 TO | 97.9 rtg
Herbert:  30 g | 15-15 w-l | 67.0% comp | 8,248 totYards | 274.9 totYPG | 48 totTD : 21 TO | 93.2 rtg


 

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29 minutes ago, roger murdock said:

Meant to say hes not that good, I'll edit my post. He's in the Kirk Cousins tier of solid starter. 

If TL up Cousins numbers, people would be arguing him vs Burrow + Allen.

 

1 hour ago, roger murdock said:

Hes been acceptable 3 years in a row. 

He's been acceptable 1/3 years.

The other two years we aren't allowed to count because he's had a tough situation.

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I am whelmed with Lawrence. 

He's underwhelmed with regards to the hype that existed about him as a prospect, but I think he's mostly in the "he's fine" category when it comes to QBs and first overall picks. 

I am still bullish on him taking a step at some point, but there have certainly been others I've said that about and they simply never did it. 

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Just now, Soggust said:

2022 + 2023

Lawrence: 33 g | 17-16 w-l | 65.9% comp | 8,759 totYards | 265.4 totYPG | 54 totTD : 38 TO | 91.9 rtg 
Jackson:  28 g | 21-7  w-l | 65.1% comp | 7,705 totYards | 275.2 totYPG | 49 totTD : 22 TO | 97.9 rtg
Herbert:  30 g | 15-15 w-l | 67.0% comp | 8,248 totYards | 274.9 totYPG | 48 totTD : 21 TO | 93.2 rtg


 

I didn't look, but I'd say Goff and Cousins were clearly better the last two seasons as well. 

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49 minutes ago, SodeeWater_Cheezburger said:

He has some work to do to catch up to Jackson & Burrow, and he and Stroud are probably about even right now.  He is a little better than Herbert, and quite a bit better than Love, IMO.  I don't know if he has the drive to ever be a Top 5 QB, but I could be wrong on that.  He should comfortably be Top 10 from now on after this year, unless something goes horribly wrong.

Wait what? CJ Strouds rookie season dookie's all over Trevor Lawrence's one good year

Higher TD%, half the INT%, over 1 yard/attempt more, better record while taking over for a bottom feeding team. 

I wouldnt trade Stroud for T-Law if I were getting 3 FRPs in return as well. 

 

Regarding Love, Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence, if you rank their 8 combined seasons as starters 1-8 you clearly have Lawrence with the two worst seasons, and Herbert with the two best seasons. After that you can fit the other 4 seasons in basically any order as a sandwich in betweeen. I certainly wouldnt say Lawrence is better than either, in fact I think hes the worst of the three. 

 

 

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Lawrence is like this weird inverse Brock Purdy where everyone feels way way too strongly about how good he is or isn't because of pre-draft expectations. But in Lawrence's case, he was expected to be fantastic, and he hasn't been, and people are struggling with the idea that someone who was supposed to be elite is kind of just pretty good so far. Not a bust, not terrible, but not great either. Lawrence could still take that leap. It gets less likely with each year that passes that he doesn't. But it is fine to just say he's a good QB, but not quite good enough, and he hasn't really put it all together for a full season yet. He shouldn't be mentioned alongside Lamar Jackson, but he also shouldn't be mentioned alongside Daniel Jones. He can be in the middle there for now.

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28 minutes ago, Soggust said:

2022 + 2023

Lawrence: 33 g | 17-16 w-l | 65.9% comp | 8,759 totYards | 265.4 totYPG | 54 totTD : 38 TO | 91.9 rtg 
Jackson:  28 g | 21-7  w-l | 65.1% comp | 7,705 totYards | 275.2 totYPG | 49 totTD : 22 TO | 97.9 rtg
Herbert:  30 g | 15-15 w-l | 67.0% comp | 8,248 totYards | 274.9 totYPG | 48 totTD : 21 TO | 93.2 rtg


 

The unlucky lost fumbles doesn’t move me. 

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9 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

The unlucky lost fumbles doesn’t move me. 

But besides that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?

 

8 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

 


What I find interesting about this is look at the most "unlucky" QBs last two years.

 

Spoiler

 

Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency: 2022 Final Regular Season Numbers

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff410cf4d-e4a5-40b2-8b7d-13f01b943bec_2100x2700.png

 

Look at the most "unlucky" QBs according to this guys' forumula -

Trevor
D Jones
R Tannehill
D Ridder
M White
J Fields
T Heinicke
D Watson
Z Wilson
M Jones
J Dobbs
S Howell 
M Ryan

Doesn't seem like great company to be in. Are we going to go back and adjust all of those stats too? 

In fact, as close as they are statistically, this tells me the Daniel Jones comp is about spot on, since he got even unluckier.

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1 hour ago, SodeeWater_Cheezburger said:

He has some work to do to catch up to Jackson & Burrow, and he and Stroud are probably about even right now.  He is a little better than Herbert, and quite a bit better than Love, IMO.  I don't know if he has the drive to ever be a Top 5 QB, but I could be wrong on that.  He should comfortably be Top 10 from now on after this year, unless something goes horribly wrong.

How can Lawrence be even with Stroud, who was better in his rookie season than TL ever was in 3 years? This is ridiculous. Either you're a Jags fan or the "generational prospesct" label is blinding you. 
I think Herbert is the most overrated player in the NFL... he's still way head of Lawrence. 
Love, just like Stroud, delivered a some actual elite play this season, better than anything TL ever showed. Stroud and Love, in their first year starting, were more impressive than TL ever was in 3 years, how could he be considered a better QB than those two going forward? 

And even comfortably top 10 is stretching it, as he's way closer to 10 than to 5 Mahomes/Allen/Burrow/Jackson/Herbert/Stroud/Love/Cousins/Prescott/Stafford/Hurts/Goff/Rodgers/Purdy/Tua. 
I'd rather have all 15 of those QB next year instead of TL. Don't think he's a top 10 QB yet. He might become one, but there's always good prospects coming in the NFL that will become top 10 as well. 
I'd rather have Caleb Williams than TL that's for sure. 
At some point actual play in the NFL has to be a better way to rank players than their draft hype/hypotetical potential/percieved situation around them. 
 

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10 minutes ago, Soggust said:

But besides that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?

 


What I find interesting about this is look at the most "unlucky" QBs last two years.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency: 2022 Final Regular Season Numbers

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff410cf4d-e4a5-40b2-8b7d-13f01b943bec_2100x2700.png

 

Look at the most "unlucky" QBs according to this guys' forumula -

Trevor
D Jones
R Tannehill
D Ridder
M White
J Fields
T Heinicke
D Watson
Z Wilson
M Jones
J Dobbs
S Howell 
M Ryan

Doesn't seem like great company to be in. Are we going to go back and adjust all of those stats too? 

In fact, as close as they are statistically, this tells me the Daniel Jones comp is about spot on, since he got even unluckier.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

The unlucky lost fumbles doesn’t move me. 

At some point 16 TO more in two years than Herbert/Jackson has to be a factor. 
TL might be unlucky, but he's more turnover prone than them as well. Both can be valid. 

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3 minutes ago, MagicMT said:

At some point 16 TO more in two years than Herbert/Jackson has to be a factor. 
TL might be unlucky, but he's more turnover prone than them as well. Both can be valid. 

He has lost 66% of the fumbles he’s put on the ground the last two years. 
 

Justin Fields on the other hand, who has  fumbled the most the last two years, has lost 23%. Tua has lost 31% of his 19 fumbles. Herbert has lost 33% of his fumbles.
 

Can he protect the ball better? Sure. But I would be more worried if he was throwing horrible INT’s.

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3 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:


Feels like the results disprove the algorithm, but I think between Geno + Brissett is actually pretty fair for Lawrence.

I'd have them flipped and down about 10 more spots, but maybe we're on to something here.

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6 minutes ago, Soggust said:


Feels like the results disprove the algorithm, but I think between Geno + Brissett is actually pretty fair for Lawrence.

I'd have them flipped and down about 10 more spots, but maybe we're on to something here.

While ahead of Herbert and Lamar. Ty sir.

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