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A 2024 OFF-SEASON PROJECTION (POST NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME)


Karnage84

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45 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Probably valuable when comparing to the similar positioning as the guys we hope to replace.  I honestly have never looked at it that deep and pay more attention to what you are good at (getting pressure, playing the run, actually getting sacks etc) and figure it would translate or we could make it work.  But would be good to know if all of the guys I like line up were Alim and Hutch do.  Not to say that would eliminate them given Sewell was drafted at RT while never playing RT, but would help.  Something to add to the spreadsheets in the offseason eh. 

Because... why not... I've got the breakdown here for the players I've identified via the draft as potential replacements for Cominsky, Benito, Harris. 

I'll send you the Google Sheets link once it's done. Going to try and reverse engineer how PFF is counting A gap, B gap, etc. vs DLT, DRT, etc. 

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12 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Because... why not... I've got the breakdown here for the players I've identified via the draft as potential replacements for Cominsky, Benito, Harris. 

I'll send you the Google Sheets link once it's done. Going to try and reverse engineer how PFF is counting A gap, B gap, etc. vs DLT, DRT, etc

DEFENSIVE LINE

A Gap = NLT, NT, NRT

B Gap = DLT, DRT

Over Tackle = LE/RE

Outside Tackle = LEO, LOLB, REO, ROLB

BOX

Off Ball = LILB, RILB, LLB, RLB, MLB, SS

So with that said, it'll be easier to translate how Cominksy and co are being used to correspond with how these players are being used and trying to find even better fits. 

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  A GAP B GAP OVER OUTSIDE
Alim Mcneill 1.8% 86.8% 11.4% 0.0%
Isaiah Buggs 34.5% 58.2% 7.3% 0.0%
Benito Jones 23.3% 70.4% 5.9% 0.4%
Brodric Martin 45.5% 54.5% 0.0% 0.0%
John Cominsky 6.4% 12.1% 57.1% 24.5%
Josh Paschal 0.0% 8.9% 17.9% 73.2%
Aidan Hutchinson 0.0% 0.5% 9.2% 90.4%
Jack Campbell 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Romeo Okwara 0.0% 4.4% 1.8% 93.9%
Julian Okwara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Charles Harris 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 99.6%
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12 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

There's so much overlap when it comes to some of the positions: Edge could be a 290 lb guy like Cominsky or a 240 lb guy. LB could be a MLB, ILB or play as a 3-4 Edge which is basically just a defensive end. You've got guys who are pegged at 0T, 1T, 3T, 5T, etc. 

A part of it comes from how the schools are designating someone (and where they're playing them). Another comes from the different services (PFF, PFN, etc.) and how they're listing someone. Then it will also come down to how a NFL team views that player. 

Key note: This seems to only be the case for CFB players and not in the NFL grading. So we can't exactly match up things but it's better than not having it. 

Agreed.  It will help for sure because like as I have mentioned I like Dorlus because he has 28 hurries, 4 sacks and 5 swatted balls from the DT position with similar numbers last year.  I like him more than Kris Jenkins who is more of a space filler/run defender with only 10 pressures and 2 sacks this year and similar numbers last year.  Sure that role is needed, but I feel our guys are better at that and its getting pressure that we need.  If Dorlus lines up where McNeil does 90% of the time, he may not be the best fit if they don't think it translates to a different line position.  Does it give stats by all of those positions as well?  Or grades by position?  

I tend to not be able to watch as much tape as I would like so I do depend on others scouting reports.  It seems a lot of the traits and abilities like a quick jump, good hands, solid balance etc that allow a DT to rush from the 1 tech alignment should be able to translate to a 3 or 4 tech. I honestly can't say I know enough about that to know for certain but seems skilled players find a way to produce. 

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26 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:
  A GAP B GAP OVER OUTSIDE
Alim Mcneill 1.8% 86.8% 11.4% 0.0%
Isaiah Buggs 34.5% 58.2% 7.3% 0.0%
Benito Jones 23.3% 70.4% 5.9% 0.4%
Brodric Martin 45.5% 54.5% 0.0% 0.0%
John Cominsky 6.4% 12.1% 57.1% 24.5%
Josh Paschal 0.0% 8.9% 17.9% 73.2%
Aidan Hutchinson 0.0% 0.5% 9.2% 90.4%
Jack Campbell 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Romeo Okwara 0.0% 4.4% 1.8% 93.9%
Julian Okwara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Charles Harris 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 99.6%

BUGGS/JONES/MARTIN

  • Sweat - 77.3% B Gap; 12.6% A Gap; 7.6% Over
  • Jackson - 55.4% A Gap; 40.4% B Gap; 3.1% Over
  • Stackhouse - 55.6% B Gap; 42.5% A Gap

Sweat's current usage is closer in line to Benito's. He's a big dude at 362 lbs and I was surprised to not see him lined up in the A gap quite as much. 

HARRIS/OKWARA

Tuimoloau - 98.1% Outside Tackle; 0.2% Off Ball

 

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Apparently Cooper DeJean has has a significant knee injury late in the year.  This doesn't have much detail but maybe the Lions can follow the same path with him as they did with Hendon Hooker.  He was solidly in the 1st round.  It will be interesting to see how far he falls.  You have to feel bad for the kid though.

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/iowa-first-round-draft-prospect-cooper-dejean-suffers-season-ending-injury

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1 minute ago, Just Want A Title said:

Apparently Cooper DeJean has has a significant knee injury late in the year.  This doesn't have much detail but maybe the Lions can follow the same path with him as they did with Hendon Hooker.  He was solidly in the 1st round.  It will be interesting to see how far he falls.  You have to feel bad for the kid though.

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/iowa-first-round-draft-prospect-cooper-dejean-suffers-season-ending-injury

That's rough. He's a really good player. 

He's probably going to drop to the 2nd round now, if I had to guess. 

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1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZeFPl1G8T41WaWUatFQYr5ubRu3MxwZJC0HkhAXkP-Y/edit?usp=sharing

@Sllim Pickens and anyone else that's interested.

This is the breakdown of guys listed in PFF's simulator (and a few PFN guys) along with PFF grades, snap counts, etc. 

I am liking Gabe Murphy and Princely Umal.... for sure to replace Harris/Okwaras.  Solid run grades, great pass grades.  High pressure rate, not as great sack rate but adding Hutch on the other side should help that. 

For Cominsky, I do like Cross and looking at that makes Dorlus look more like the second rounder than his counting stats.  Looks like just a lot of chances at pressures.  But I also like the 5 batted balls. You highlighted Turner but I think Darius Robinson is the other one to highlight.  Better run grade by far, very solid pressure rate, and the highest sack rate. 

Sweat looks like the only replacement for Buggs in that role and size of that bunch. 

Side note, where are Bralen Trice, Leonard Taylor, Kris Jenkins, Donte Corleone, and Byron Murphy?  All guys I have been targeting in my drafts.  And although not likely there for us, who knows as Bresee was a top 10 pick at this time last year so Newton, Chop Robinson, Verse, Dallas turner and Latu.

 

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8 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I am liking Gabe Murphy and Princely Umal.... for sure to replace Harris/Okwaras.  Solid run grades, great pass grades.  High pressure rate, not as great sack rate but adding Hutch on the other side should help that. 

For Cominsky, I do like Cross and looking at that makes Dorlus look more like the second rounder than his counting stats.  Looks like just a lot of chances at pressures.  But I also like the 5 batted balls. You highlighted Turner but I think Darius Robinson is the other one to highlight.  Better run grade by far, very solid pressure rate, and the highest sack rate. 

Sweat looks like the only replacement for Buggs in that role and size of that bunch. 

Side note, where are Bralen Trice, Leonard Taylor, Kris Jenkins, Donte Corleone, and Byron Murphy?  All guys I have been targeting in my drafts.  And although not likely there for us, who knows as Bresee was a top 10 pick at this time last year so Newton, Chop Robinson, Verse, Dallas turner and Latu.

 

I've got another... gulp.. 38 names via PFN. 

Starting with the NT's since there's only a few more names. 

My focus was on guys that fit the criteria for the Lions in terms of starting gigs (NT, Harris, Cominsky). The team like McNeill and plays him second only to Aidan in terms of snaps. I'm going to add a "McNeill's back up" for these guys but I also think that they go the veteran route (which is why I went with Watts). 

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Just did a PFF draft and based on their rankings, our first round pick is rough.  I would call for a trade down 10-15 spots and add a 3rd and future 2nd or something.  The draft I ended up going 

1. Princely Umanmielen, Edge (Harris/Okwara replacement)
2. Sedrick Van Pran, C (G/Ragnow replacement)
3a. Quinyon Mitchell, CB (Just a need)
3b. T'vondre Sweat, DT (Buggs replacement big bodied DT who gets pressure)

Since I am not a paying member I can only do three rounds but would look at Cross or Robinson with the next pick.  If we trade down and get another early 3rd, I would do the same and look to grab one of them and/or Rice/Franklin/Harris/Wilson at WR.    

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One prospect who is really interesting but under-sized is LB Edgerrin Cooper from Texas A&M.  I have only seen him play once this year but he plays pretty fast and has a pretty good nose for the ball (7 sacks and 16 TFL to date this year.  Full disclosure:  3 sacks came against Alabama.  I am not sure how he would fit but he is a pretty interesting player.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/edgerrin-cooper-1.html

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