A 2024 OFF-SEASON PROJECTION (POST NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME)

[Karnage84]

9 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

I agree. I think we are a few pieces away from being a top team and I think those pieces are pass rush and a blue chip corner.  Or having top picks is going to prevent us from getting the top guys at the positions so we need to be smart and keep addressing BPA in the draft and worry about holes in free agency. 

You're forced to select a need over BPA when you have poor management. If Brad Holmes whiffed on a number of prior draft picks while also not getting the right guys in FA, then it forces the issue. If Sewell plays like Ickey Ekwonu or ARSB doesn't become the WR that he is then we'd probably be in a place where we need to address some of these spots while also still having the current holes that we do. Some of the places that we should be replacing have capable starters but not difference-makers. John Cominsky is a very capable player but we need more. 

[General Tso]

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2024-free-agency-primer-best-free-agents-every-position

I hope Brad overhauls the defensive line. Players in his "price range" could be guys like Daquan Jones, Jadaevon Clowney, Denico Autry and Dorance Armstrong.

[Louis Friend]

4 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

You're forced to select a need over BPA when you have poor management. If Brad Holmes whiffed on a number of prior draft picks while also not getting the right guys in FA, then it forces the issue. If Sewell plays like Ickey Ekwonu or ARSB doesn't become the WR that he is then we'd probably be in a place where we need to address some of these spots while also still having the current holes that we do. Some of the places that we should be replacing have capable starters but not difference-makers. John Cominsky is a very capable player but we need more. 

Agreed. 

[Karnage84]

CORNERBACKS

No matter which way you shake it, the defensive back position is a major concern the Lions in 2023 and is expected to be addressed in 2024. 

SCHEME SHIFT

• 2022 (Man): The Lions played the 2nd most snaps in the league in 'Man' coverage in 2022. They allowed the 3rd most yards per attempt (7.6). 

https://www.si.com/nfl/lions/news/lions-played-man-coverage-second-highest-rate

• 2023 (Zone): The Lions have now shifted predominately to a 'Zone' defense, amounting to about 64% of coverage snaps. 

New Additions

• Cameron Sutton: Sutton was brought in as a free agent to be a veteran leader on this defense. He is currently grading out as (61.7 Zone; 53.2 Man)
• Brian Branch: Branch was selected in the 2nd round of the draft. He has been having an outstanding rookie season and is in DROY conversations (88.1 Zone; 58.8 Man)

The Old Guard

• Jerry Jacobs: Jerry has been a starter for us and has had some good and bad moments. He's developed into a decent player but there is room for a potential upgrade. (70.9 Zone; 48.6 Man). He is an RFA in 2024. 
• Will Harris: This Jack of All Trades is certainly a master of none. He's a prime target for replacement for next season. (54.4 Zone; 30.5 Man)

The Lions currently have a top 10 defense by DVOA (#10). As long as Glenn continues as the Lions DC (I suspect Ben Johnson will be gone and AG will be staying), we're likely going to continue with this trend while replacing players who are sub-par. 

The Question Mark

• Emmanuel Moseley: The Lions signed Moseley as a free agent in the off-season. He has battled injuries and played two snaps for us in 2023. Moseley did have a 74.9 Zone grade and a 68.1 Man in 2022. He had a 58.6 Run Defense grade while with the 49ers. If he can come back healthy (a bit what if), Moseley could be an option to return (he has $1M of a cap hit in 2024 due to a void year). 

 

FREE AGENCY(See below for figures)

• Kendall Fuller: Fuller should be the #1 target for the Lions. He has graded out really well in zone (89.7), serviceable in man (55.6), and strong against the run (76.5). The downside is that this comes at a cost. He's projected at between $14M - nearly $18M and he's 29. If the Lions can get Fuller at a more team-friendly contract, this is a no-brainer. At those projections, it would be a sign of desperation and signal things might not be as optimistic behind the scenes. He's not going to contribute on ST and you don't want to expose him to injury for that contract. 

 

• Sean Murphy-Bunting: SMB just signed a 1-year deal with the Titans after coming over from Tampa. He's a Michigan native, he's versatile (can play outside and in the slot); grades well in zone (78.9), not bad in man (60.2), and serviceable against the run (57.9). He's projected to have a contract range between $6.7M and $8.7M). He's a player who could be a versatile veteran piece that can start but is also a strong depth piece. He hasn't played on ST in Tennessee but he was graded with a 69.1 on 124 snaps in Tampa.  

 

DRAFT

NAME	HT	WT	POS	SCHOOL	MAN COV GRADE	MAN SNAP%	ZONE COV GRADE	ZONE SNAP%	RDEF
Quinyon Mitchell	72	196	CB	TOLEDO	83.4	26.6	87.4	61.8	78.0
Anthony Johnson Jr.	70	180	CB	W KENTUCKY	67.5	32.7	89.6	54.4	68.2
Dwight McGlothern	74	188	CB	ARKANSAS	82.8	33.9	89.7	52.8	57.2
Kamal Hadden	71	197	CB	TENNESSEE	69.0	17.9	90.9	52.7	49.5
Isaiah Johnson	75	205	CB	SYRACUSE	61.9	37.3	85.1	40.3	88.0
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.	72	188	CB	MISSOURI	58.8	37.2	83.2	53.8	89.0	2025
Da'Raun McKinney	70	200	CB	C MICHIGAN	65.5	26	82.4	45.8	81.1

The Lions are probably going to have to address this in multiple ways. I suspect we're going to do this by at least one higher-end draft pick (1st-3rd), another mid-round pick and through free agency (do we bring Moseley back?

• Quinyon Mitchell: He is already starting to rise up draft boards and should be a late 1st to early 2nd pick by the time April rolls around. He checks off all of the right boxes - he has the size; he's strong against the run; he's performed great in zone and has a ton of experience (61.8%) while also getting decent snaps in man (26.6%). 

Edited November 24, 2023 by Karnage84

[Karnage84]

	2024 FREE AGENCY
	Player	HT	WT	Pos.	2023 Team	Type	Snaps	Age	Current APY	OTC	SPOTRAC	ZONE	MAN	RDEF		SCB	WCB
1	Kendall Fuller	71	198	CB	Commanders	UFA	99.60%	29	$10,000,000	$17,996,000	$14,000,000	89.7	55.6	76.5		25	735
2	Fabian Moreau	72	200	CB	Broncos	UFA	42.30%	30	$1,100,000	$3,406,000		89.6	37.3	41.6		25	221
3	Sean Murphy-Bunting	72	195	CB	Titans	Void	67.60%	27	$3,500,000	$8,744,000	$6,700,000	78.9	60.2	57.9		3	403
4	L'Jarius Sneed	73	192	CB	Chiefs	UFA	97.90%	27	$982,330	$11,422,000	$6,800,000	74.2	30.1	64.0		18	546
5	Marcus Peters	72	197	CB	Raiders	Void	95.80%	31	$3,000,000	$9,070,000		73.8	63.5	50.3		8	621
6	Dane Jackson	71	180	CB	Bills	UFA	60.00%	28	$2,010,000	$4,558,000		70.9	65.6	29.6		4	395
7	Stephon Gilmore	72	190	CB	Cowboys	UFA	93.50%	34	$10,000,000	$6,815,000	$11,100,000	69.0	62.3	72.8		39	556
8	Chidobe Awuzie	72	202	CB	Bengals	UFA	53.30%	29	$7,250,000	$772,000		67.5	45.1	56.6		31	301
9	Steven Nelson	71	194	CB	Texans	Void	85.70%	31	$5,500,000	$12,467,000	$10,200,000	66.0	88.5	59.2		6	589
10	Levi Wallace	72	179	CB	Steelers	UFA	65.30%	29	$4,000,000	$2,321,000	$9,800,000	65.6	47.0	42.7		10	441
11	Eli Apple	73	203	CB	Dolphins	UFA	57.60%	29	$1,600,000	$1,520,000	$3,700,000	64.2	40.5	85.9		9	348
	Player	HT	WT	Pos.	2023 Team	Type	Snaps	Age	Current APY	OTC	SPOTRAC	ZONE	MAN	RDEF		SCB	WCB
1	Troy Hill	71	180	CB	Panthers	UFA	48.10%	33	$1,265,000	$4,658,000		86.4	51.3	43.5		210	58
2	Tavierre Thomas	70	205	CB	Texans	UFA	44.80%	28	$2,250,000	$2,292,000		83.5	49.1	79.6		258	1
3	Tre Herndon	71	190	CB	Jaguars	UFA	60.00%	28	$2,582,500	$2,248,000		72.6	50.7	29.0		339	11
4	Myles Bryant	69	192	CB	Patriots	UFA	75.10%	26	$2,627,000	$3,967,000	$8,300,000	64.9	50.8	88.1		292	141
5	Keisean Nixon	70	200	CB	Packers	Void	70.20%	27	$4,000,000	$4,811,000	$1,700,000	61.9	58.7	41.4		410	36

[Karnage84]

Just now, Karnage84 said:

	2024 FREE AGENCY
	Player	HT	WT	Pos.	2023 Team	Type	Snaps	Age	Current APY	OTC	SPOTRAC	ZONE	MAN	RDEF		SCB	WCB
1	Kendall Fuller	71	198	CB	Commanders	UFA	99.60%	29	$10,000,000	$17,996,000	$14,000,000	89.7	55.6	76.5		25	735
2	Fabian Moreau	72	200	CB	Broncos	UFA	42.30%	30	$1,100,000	$3,406,000		89.6	37.3	41.6		25	221
3	Sean Murphy-Bunting	72	195	CB	Titans	Void	67.60%	27	$3,500,000	$8,744,000	$6,700,000	78.9	60.2	57.9		3	403
4	L'Jarius Sneed	73	192	CB	Chiefs	UFA	97.90%	27	$982,330	$11,422,000	$6,800,000	74.2	30.1	64.0		18	546
5	Marcus Peters	72	197	CB	Raiders	Void	95.80%	31	$3,000,000	$9,070,000		73.8	63.5	50.3		8	621
6	Dane Jackson	71	180	CB	Bills	UFA	60.00%	28	$2,010,000	$4,558,000		70.9	65.6	29.6		4	395
7	Stephon Gilmore	72	190	CB	Cowboys	UFA	93.50%	34	$10,000,000	$6,815,000	$11,100,000	69.0	62.3	72.8		39	556
8	Chidobe Awuzie	72	202	CB	Bengals	UFA	53.30%	29	$7,250,000	$772,000		67.5	45.1	56.6		31	301
9	Steven Nelson	71	194	CB	Texans	Void	85.70%	31	$5,500,000	$12,467,000	$10,200,000	66.0	88.5	59.2		6	589
10	Levi Wallace	72	179	CB	Steelers	UFA	65.30%	29	$4,000,000	$2,321,000	$9,800,000	65.6	47.0	42.7		10	441
11	Eli Apple	73	203	CB	Dolphins	UFA	57.60%	29	$1,600,000	$1,520,000	$3,700,000	64.2	40.5	85.9		9	348
	Player	HT	WT	Pos.	2023 Team	Type	Snaps	Age	Current APY	OTC	SPOTRAC	ZONE	MAN	RDEF		SCB	WCB
1	Troy Hill	71	180	CB	Panthers	UFA	48.10%	33	$1,265,000	$4,658,000		86.4	51.3	43.5		210	58
2	Tavierre Thomas	70	205	CB	Texans	UFA	44.80%	28	$2,250,000	$2,292,000		83.5	49.1	79.6		258	1
3	Tre Herndon	71	190	CB	Jaguars	UFA	60.00%	28	$2,582,500	$2,248,000		72.6	50.7	29.0		339	11
4	Myles Bryant	69	192	CB	Patriots	UFA	75.10%	26	$2,627,000	$3,967,000	$8,300,000	64.9	50.8	88.1		292	141
5	Keisean Nixon	70	200	CB	Packers	Void	70.20%	27	$4,000,000	$4,811,000	$1,700,000	61.9	58.7	41.4		410	36

Top List = Outside Corner

Bottom List = Slot Guys

[Karnage84]

CURRENT DEPTH CHART

LCB: Sutton, Harris, Gilmore

NB: Branch, Lucas

RCB: Jacobs, Dorsey

IN-HOUSE FREE AGENCY

• Will Harris (UFA): Let Walk - Self-explanatory
• Khalil Dorsey (RFA): Re-sign - He's graded out really well on ST (79.8)
• Jerry Jacobs (RFA): Re-sign - He's been given a starting role. Even if he's going to play as a backup, we know he can start if needed
• Chase Lucas (ERFA): Let Walk - He hasn't done much since being drafted. It's time to move on. 
• Steven Gilmore (Not a UFA): Cut - Plan to bring in new blood, gets pushed out
• Emanuel Moseley (UFA): Let walk - The team moves on to a more reliable option but keeps the door open for post-draft. 

CURRENT DEPTH CHART

LCB: Sutton, Harris, Gilmore

NB: Branch, Lucas

RCB: Jacobs, Dorsey

FREE AGENCY

Sean Murphy-Bunting - 1 Year, $7.5M ($5.5M in 2024; $2M void in 2025): SMB is brought in to either start across from Sutton or replace Will Harris and provide another veteran presence on the back end. He is versatile and can play either outside or in the slot. 

UPDATED DEPTH CHART

LCB: Sutton, Jacobs

NB: Branch, [OPEN]

RCB: Murphy-Bunting, Dorsey

DRAFT

Rd 2 - Pick 35: Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo: This is a pick acquired from the Patriots in a trade-up to draft a Quarterback to secure the 5th year option (the Patriots are at pick #3 or #4 and miss out on Williams/Maye). They select one of the other elite players (Marvin Harrison or Olu) and come back to get their QB at the bottom of Round 1. Mitchell 

Rd 5 - Pick 156: Ennis Rakestraw, Missouri: A scrappy CB with decent size, he has experience playing inside and outside. He graded out really well in Zone (83.2) and against the run (89.0). 

UPDATED DEPTH CHART

LCB: Sutton, Jacobs

NB: Branch, Rakestraw

RCB: Mitchell, Murphy-Bunting, Dorsey

The Lions continue to build on the defense and address key gaps. They've upgraded players that better fit the scheme they're trying to play, and they've added veteran players over the past two years (Sutton and now SMB) while also putting a player like Jacobs into a role he'll be better suited for - high-end backup. 

[Just Want A Title]

You hate to see any player go down with an injury, especially late in the season.  Apparently, Zak Zinter was taken to the hospital after a leg injury.  Hopefully it isn't a severe injury.

https://www.mlive.com/wolverines/2023/11/michigan-starting-lineman-carted-off-field-in-third-quarter-vs-ohio-state.html

Update:  Apparently he broke his Tibia and Fibula.  It was ugly enough that Fox sports wouldn't show it on TV.  I suspect he won't be recovered and ready for football activities until June or July.  That is going to push his draft stock down quite a bit even if his recovery is clean.

Edited November 26, 2023 by Just Want A Title

[Karnage84]

On 11/25/2023 at 5:02 PM, Just Want A Title said:

You hate to see any player go down with an injury, especially late in the season.  Apparently, Zak Zinter was taken to the hospital after a leg injury.  Hopefully it isn't a severe injury.

https://www.mlive.com/wolverines/2023/11/michigan-starting-lineman-carted-off-field-in-third-quarter-vs-ohio-state.html

Update:  Apparently he broke his Tibia and Fibula.  It was ugly enough that Fox sports wouldn't show it on TV.  I suspect he won't be recovered and ready for football activities until June or July.  That is going to push his draft stock down quite a bit even if his recovery is clean.

I was watching the game and saw he was injured but I didn't hear about those details. 

That's extremely unfortunate. Agreed on the hit on his draft stock. 

[Sllim Pickens]

On 11/24/2023 at 2:49 PM, Karnage84 said:

CURRENT DEPTH CHART

LCB: Sutton, Harris, Gilmore

NB: Branch, Lucas

RCB: Jacobs, Dorsey

IN-HOUSE FREE AGENCY

• Will Harris (UFA): Let Walk - Self-explanatory
• Khalil Dorsey (RFA): Re-sign - He's graded out really well on ST (79.8)
• Jerry Jacobs (RFA): Re-sign - He's been given a starting role. Even if he's going to play as a backup, we know he can start if needed
• Chase Lucas (ERFA): Let Walk - He hasn't done much since being drafted. It's time to move on. 
• Steven Gilmore (Not a UFA): Cut - Plan to bring in new blood, gets pushed out
• Emanuel Moseley (UFA): Let walk - The team moves on to a more reliable option but keeps the door open for post-draft. 

CURRENT DEPTH CHART

LCB: Sutton, Harris, Gilmore

NB: Branch, Lucas

RCB: Jacobs, Dorsey

FREE AGENCY

Sean Murphy-Bunting - 1 Year, $7.5M ($5.5M in 2024; $2M void in 2025): SMB is brought in to either start across from Sutton or replace Will Harris and provide another veteran presence on the back end. He is versatile and can play either outside or in the slot. 

UPDATED DEPTH CHART

LCB: Sutton, Jacobs

NB: Branch, [OPEN]

RCB: Murphy-Bunting, Dorsey

DRAFT

Rd 2 - Pick 35: Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo: This is a pick acquired from the Patriots in a trade-up to draft a Quarterback to secure the 5th year option (the Patriots are at pick #3 or #4 and miss out on Williams/Maye). They select one of the other elite players (Marvin Harrison or Olu) and come back to get their QB at the bottom of Round 1. Mitchell 

Rd 5 - Pick 156: Ennis Rakestraw, Missouri: A scrappy CB with decent size, he has experience playing inside and outside. He graded out really well in Zone (83.2) and against the run (89.0). 

UPDATED DEPTH CHART

LCB: Sutton, Jacobs

NB: Branch, Rakestraw

RCB: Mitchell, Murphy-Bunting, Dorsey

The Lions continue to build on the defense and address key gaps. They've upgraded players that better fit the scheme they're trying to play, and they've added veteran players over the past two years (Sutton and now SMB) while also putting a player like Jacobs into a role he'll be better suited for - high-end backup. 

Sorry for the delay in response on some of this.  For some reason FF is not always loading on my comp and it will not let me respond to posts. 

I do like this offseason.  I would prefer Kendall Fuller but he may be out of our price range.  I think SMB is solid enough to plug in and would likely start over Mitchell but hopefully Mitchell would take over as the year goes on.  I also would keep Gilmore on the PS.  He seems to be liked by the staff but needs further seasoning.  Seeing if he can develop and pass Dorsey would be a solid move IMO. 

[Karnage84]

12 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Sorry for the delay in response on some of this.  For some reason FF is not always loading on my comp and it will not let me respond to posts. 

I do like this offseason.  I would prefer Kendall Fuller but he may be out of our price range.  I think SMB is solid enough to plug in and would likely start over Mitchell but hopefully Mitchell would take over as the year goes on.  I also would keep Gilmore on the PS.  He seems to be liked by the staff but needs further seasoning.  Seeing if he can develop and pass Dorsey would be a solid move IMO. 

No worries at all. It's a fill-in project, after all, so it's going to be sitting there for comment/feedback. 

I think Fuller would be the principal target but he's going to command more money than they might want to spend for 1 year. Plus, I am projecting us to bring back CJGJ (or Ceedy Duce.. whatever he wants to call himself). 

If Mitchell can play himself into a starting gig, that'd be ideal. You have the veteran backstop in SMB to not force it and let him develop. SMB can also play in the slot, so it does give you versatility in looks. 

Once I've worked through some of the other position groups, then I'll work out a proper free agency/mock draft. PFN has a mock where Mitchell goes to the Eagles at #32 which is the first time I've seen him in a 1st round mock (and I suspect it won't be the last). We likely would need to take him at 28-30 (wherever we fall). This would also mean that we're not addressing the DL in round 1, which would likely generate some negativity as well. 

[Karnage84]

SAFETIES

FSL			FS			FSR
Walker	93		Joseph	143		Joseph	91		FSL	168
Joseph	42		Walker	109		Walker	49		FS	269
Melifonwu	18		Melifonwu	10		Melifonwu	39		FSR	184
Branch	15		Branch	7		Branch	5		SCB	677
									SS	127
SCB						SS
Branch	325					Joseph	78
Joseph	123					Walker	45
W Harris	111					Branch	4
Walker	100
Melifonwu	18

[Karnage84]

PLAYER	COV	TGT	REC	REC%	YDS	Y/REC	YAC	YAC/REC	TD	TD/TG	TD/REC	INT	INT/TGT	PBU	PBU/TGT
Tracy Walker	332	20	12	60.0%	119	9.9	19	1.6	2	10.0%	16.7%	0	0.0%	1	5.0%
Kerby Joseph	354	34	18	52.9%	268	14.9	120	6.7	0	0.0%	0.0%	2	5.9%	3	8.8%
Ifeatu Melifonwu	80	3	2	66.7%	8	4.0	2	1.0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.0%	1	33.3%
Brian Branch	295	37	26	70.3%	192	7.4	74	2.8	5	13.5%	19.2%	1	2.7%	5	13.5%

[Karnage84]

CJGJ		G
FSL	12	11.0%
FS	44	40.4%
FSR	16	14.7%
SCB	18	16.5%
SS	19	17.4%
	109
Walker
FSL	93	23.5%
FS	109	27.5%
FSR	49	12.4%
SCB	100	25.3%
SS	45	11.4%
	396
Kerby
FSL	42	8.8%
FS	143	30.0%
FSR	91	19.1%
SCB	123	25.8%
SS	78	16.4%
	477

[Karnage84]

SAFETY GROUP

Of all the Lions' issues on defense, the safety group is one of the least problematic. 

There are only really two glaring question marks:

1) What do you do with Tracy Walker? He's 29 years old, he's dealt with injuries and he comes at a bit of a price tag ($12M). This is especially the case when it comes to his value vs production. If he's cut, we'd save $5.5M but have over $7M in dead cap. The Lions could restructure some of this to lessen the overall hit. He isn't making a ton of plays on the ball (1 PBU, 0 INTs) and has allowed 2 TDs compared to Joseph and Melifonwu both allowing 0. He's not terrible against the run (66.3) but is poor compared to his running mate, Kerby at 76.7. This is not an obvious overhaul decision but there is an argument that could be made. 

2) Do we bring back Ceedy Duce? CJGJ is 27 years old and only played in two games after signing a 1 year $6.5M deal with us in the off-season. He was considered one of Free Agency's biggest targets and it was a boon that we got him. He played well enough for us in those two games opposite of Kerby. In both of those games, Tracy Walker was not available to play. He had two PBU's, 0 INT's against the Chiefs. He brings a swagger and energy to the roster. The Lions had plans to play CJGJ even with Walker and Branch on the roster. If he can come back healthy, I think the Lions should bring [CJGJ] back and I think he'd want to come back due to unfinished business. This might not be quite the lock if the Lions fired AG or if he (somehow) wound up with an HC position as Ceedy could follow [AG] to his new spot. 

DRAFT

This is not going to be a high-priority position for the Lions in the draft. It is highly unlikely that we will invest a round 1 or round 2 pick in a safety. The Lions could add someone in the later rounds to develop behind CJGJ/Walker. Brandon Joseph, a UFA on the Practice Squad, is always an option should the need arise.