A 2024 OFF-SEASON PROJECTION (POST NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME)

[Karnage84]

30 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

It seems like there will be a lot of very solid players available after the first round.  For me, the best situation would be to move back into the early 2d-round.  That would give us 2nd round picks and two 3rd-round picks.  That should give us a shot at some good prospects at OG, OT, CB and WR.  All of those groups seem strong in rounds 2 and 3 right now.  Already man-crushing on Florida A&M CB Kendall Bohler.  

If you're going to move down, it's because you either a) don't feel there's a big gap in talents and/or b) you're given an offer that you can't bypass.

Assuming the Lions finish in the 30s, it's possible that a team does decide to trade up to snag a QBOTF and secure that 5th-year option. 

[Louis Friend]

1 minute ago, Karnage84 said:

If you're going to move down, it's because you either a) don't feel there's a big gap in talents and/or b) you're given an offer that you can't bypass.

Assuming the Lions finish in the 30s, it's possible that a team does decide to trade up to snag a QBOTF and secure that 5th-year option. 

But if the Lions move out of the first round, it better be for a day two extra pick. If we walk in with 1 1st, 1 2nd & 2 3rds and walk out with 2 2nds & 2 3rds, I’d be pissed. 

[Karnage84]

1 minute ago, Louis Friend said:

But if the Lions move out of the first round, it better be for a day two extra pick. If we walk in with 1 1st, 1 2nd & 2 3rds and walk out with 2 2nds & 2 3rds, I’d be pissed. 

100%. You need to get that value, otherwise what's the point. 

Having that 5th-year option in our back pocket is something that can/has been helpful. The Lions were able to decide what they wanted to do with TJ given that they had that in the bag and could control him. 

If we can land a high level WR or an Edge guy and have that 5th year option, it'd be much more valuable to me than to get a 2025 4th round pick.

[Just Want A Title]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

100%. You need to get that value, otherwise what's the point. 

Having that 5th-year option in our back pocket is something that can/has been helpful. The Lions were able to decide what they wanted to do with TJ given that they had that in the bag and could control him. 

If we can land a high level WR or an Edge guy and have that 5th year option, it'd be much more valuable to me than to get a 2025 4th round pick.

It really depends on who is projected to be available.  Most of the time, the prospects available at 26-32 have a second round grade.  If they found themselves in a situation like they did at pick #18 and Jack Campbell was at the top of their draft board with a steep drop-off they should make the selection in late Round 1.  Right now, it seems like there will be a large group of CBs bunched up in early to mid-round 2.  Round 2 and Round 3 are pretty reliable sources of solid OG prospects.  This WR class seems solid enough to get an #2/#3WR rounds 2 and 3 also.  There are some really good EDGE players but it seems like a top-heavy class that will see most of them go as 1st round picks.  This isn't a great year for DT so I suspect the Lions will look to veteran help in free agency add to that room but one of the better DT prospects could drop to them late in Round 1.  

 

Basically, what Brad Holmes is good at is leaning into the strength of the draft.  Last year, it was in the first three rounds.  This year could be very different.  The number of quality QBs, OTs and WRs going in Round 1 is going to cause some pretty good players to be selected later than we might expect.  The top-heavy EDGE class could amplify that effect leaving a lot of good players at positions of need for the Lions.  Rounds 4, 5 and 6 could have some good developmental players also.  There are a couple of variables at work:

1.  Do we re-sign Jonah Jackson or find his replacement in the draft?  Our O-lIne is better with him but it is going to take a $13-15 million annual salary to keep him.  We are going to have a legitimate shot at just about any OG we want (Zak Zinter, Cooper Beebe, Troy Fananu, Donovan Jackson, Christian Mahogany) and they will be a lot less expensive while being talented enough to start very early on in their career.  Maybe Graham Barton, who was a starting C as a Freshman is drafted with the idea of becoming a younger version of Graham Glasgow has been really good and seems to have plenty of gas in his tank but is 31 years old.

2.  Is Penei Sewell the RT or LT of the future?  The OTs with RD 1 grades will leave a fair number of developmental prospects in Rounds 2, 3 and 4.  Taylor is still pretty good so we could take a more developmental OT in Round 2.  Still, it is usually easier to get a good RT in Round 2 than a good LT.  I have idea what the Lions think but it seems like Penei Sewell is better at RT than LT.

3.  Having a 5-year window of control over a player is a double-edged sword.  We had to eat a significant amount of dead cap money to offload Jeff Okudah's rookie deal.  Brad Holmes seems to like 2-3 year deals to give him salary cap flexibility.  He will give long-term deals to franchise cornerstones.  He may value that flexibility knowing that he has Penei Sewell, ARSB and Aidan Hutchinson all needing big extensions.  Jared Goff impacts this situation also.  He is playing at a really high level but I could see him being traded and following Ben Johnson also.

Right now, the only thing we can say for sure is that we don't really know anything for sure.  Lol

[Sllim Pickens]

15 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

It really depends on who is projected to be available.  Most of the time, the prospects available at 26-32 have a second round grade.  If they found themselves in a situation like they did at pick #18 and Jack Campbell was at the top of their draft board with a steep drop-off they should make the selection in late Round 1.  Right now, it seems like there will be a large group of CBs bunched up in early to mid-round 2.  Round 2 and Round 3 are pretty reliable sources of solid OG prospects.  This WR class seems solid enough to get an #2/#3WR rounds 2 and 3 also.  There are some really good EDGE players but it seems like a top-heavy class that will see most of them go as 1st round picks.  This isn't a great year for DT so I suspect the Lions will look to veteran help in free agency add to that room but one of the better DT prospects could drop to them late in Round 1.  

 

Basically, what Brad Holmes is good at is leaning into the strength of the draft.  Last year, it was in the first three rounds.  This year could be very different.  The number of quality QBs, OTs and WRs going in Round 1 is going to cause some pretty good players to be selected later than we might expect.  The top-heavy EDGE class could amplify that effect leaving a lot of good players at positions of need for the Lions.  Rounds 4, 5 and 6 could have some good developmental players also.  There are a couple of variables at work:

1.  Do we re-sign Jonah Jackson or find his replacement in the draft?  Our O-lIne is better with him but it is going to take a $13-15 million annual salary to keep him.  We are going to have a legitimate shot at just about any OG we want (Zak Zinter, Cooper Beebe, Troy Fananu, Donovan Jackson, Christian Mahogany) and they will be a lot less expensive while being talented enough to start very early on in their career.  Maybe Graham Barton, who was a starting C as a Freshman is drafted with the idea of becoming a younger version of Graham Glasgow has been really good and seems to have plenty of gas in his tank but is 31 years old.

2.  Is Penei Sewell the RT or LT of the future?  The OTs with RD 1 grades will leave a fair number of developmental prospects in Rounds 2, 3 and 4.  Taylor is still pretty good so we could take a more developmental OT in Round 2.  Still, it is usually easier to get a good RT in Round 2 than a good LT.  I have idea what the Lions think but it seems like Penei Sewell is better at RT than LT.

3.  Having a 5-year window of control over a player is a double-edged sword.  We had to eat a significant amount of dead cap money to offload Jeff Okudah's rookie deal.  Brad Holmes seems to like 2-3 year deals to give him salary cap flexibility.  He will give long-term deals to franchise cornerstones.  He may value that flexibility knowing that he has Penei Sewell, ARSB and Aidan Hutchinson all needing big extensions.  Jared Goff impacts this situation also.  He is playing at a really high level but I could see him being traded and following Ben Johnson also.

Right now, the only thing we can say for sure is that we don't really know anything for sure.  Lol

1. I don't think its going to cost that much to keep Jonah Jackson honestly.  He has never graded out above a 70 by PFF and he has had injury issues every year.  Connor Williams for example from the Dolphins had back to back mid 70s years at LG on PFF in both 2020 and 2021 and he signed a two year 14M deal to stay in Miami.  Elgton Jenkins had an 82 PFF season with high 60s before that when he signed his big deal in 2022 at 17M per year.  He hasn't reproduced that level of production since so I am guessing GB is mad they gave him so much.  I think we can keep Jonah for around 8-10M per year and I would be fine doing that.  If he wants more, I am fine letting him go.  We have seen that our depth performs well in his absence and with a full offseason he can be replaced.  I would like to keep him for continuity and based on what Holmes has been doing, I could see a 2/3 year deal for him at 8-10 per year.  

2. I think Sewell is going to stick at RT.  He is the highest graded RT in the league and when Decker didn't play, we kept him at RT this year.  I think he is entrenched in that spot for good.  Decker's contract is not bad for his level of play but he needs to stay healthy.  He saves us $9.8M in cap if we cut him before June 1 or 13.7M if after June 1.  I think given its the last year of his deal we will see him play it out and likely move on when he is done unless he takes a home town discount. 

3. Offloading Okudah because of his cap was due to being picked 3rd overall, not the 5th year.  5th year options are based on the productivity such as pro-bowls, all-pros etc and position average.  Since its an option, it will never hurt us unless we don't pick it up and the player plays well.  Even then the Commanders were able to get a third for half of a year of Chase Young without the 5th year option.  Having it as an option though is huge for positions that get paid the most and are most important to success. 

 

As for your draft assessment, I think there are a lot of edge guys that will go in the first three rounds.  The top 4/5 will probably be gone before our pick but there are plenty of them that could move into the first or second that should be solid.  Similarly, DT I think is deep this year, just nothing at the top like a Carter last year.  Taylor and Newton are really good solid players with upside.  There actually seems to be more 290lb plus D Lineman with pass rushing ability this year than most so I think that sets up well for us.  

Your final point that we don't need anything is false IMO.  CB is a huge need, especially with the pending free agents.  So is DE with the guys we will lose plus they havent been good.  DT for sure can be upgraded as well.  OG/C may also very well be needs.  

[Karnage84]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

1. I don't think its going to cost that much to keep Jonah Jackson honestly.  He has never graded out above a 70 by PFF and he has had injury issues every year.  Connor Williams for example from the Dolphins had back to back mid 70s years at LG on PFF in both 2020 and 2021 and he signed a two year 14M deal to stay in Miami.  Elgton Jenkins had an 82 PFF season with high 60s before that when he signed his big deal in 2022 at 17M per year.  He hasn't reproduced that level of production since so I am guessing GB is mad they gave him so much.  I think we can keep Jonah for around 8-10M per year and I would be fine doing that.  If he wants more, I am fine letting him go.  We have seen that our depth performs well in his absence and with a full offseason he can be replaced.  I would like to keep him for continuity and based on what Holmes has been doing, I could see a 2/3 year deal for him at 8-10 per year.  

I am expecting between $8-12M APY. I think your 2-3 year deal makes a lot of sense. This is a good team that is going places and has a good culture. I'm not suggesting Jonah is going to take a massive hometown discount kind of contract. He may not jump at $13M/$14M in a new place that could be a disaster just for the extra money. 

 

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

2. I think Sewell is going to stick at RT.  He is the highest graded RT in the league and when Decker didn't play, we kept him at RT this year.  I think he is entrenched in that spot for good.  Decker's contract is not bad for his level of play but he needs to stay healthy.  He saves us $9.8M in cap if we cut him before June 1 or 13.7M if after June 1.  I think given its the last year of his deal we will see him play it out and likely move on when he is done unless he takes a home town discount. 

This is where I'm struggling to figure out how the Lions will address the OL in the draft. If you wanted to move Sewell to LT, then you could draft a RT and play him at RG until you're ready to make that switch. If you're keeping Sewell at RT, then we likely need to still draft a RG while also adding a LT who might not have an immediate spot to play. If that's the case, I don't see us investing a ton of draft capital here in the immediate future. I don't know of many guys that you plug in at RG and then flip over to play LT and are effective in both spots. 

 

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

3. Offloading Okudah because of his cap was due to being picked 3rd overall, not the 5th year.  5th year options are based on the productivity such as pro-bowls, all-pros etc and position average.  Since its an option, it will never hurt us unless we don't pick it up and the player plays well.  Even then the Commanders were able to get a third for half of a year of Chase Young without the 5th year option.  Having it as an option though is huge for positions that get paid the most and are most important to success. 

Yeah, this makes much more sense. I didn't get a chance to look at it but having a 5th year option available to you doesn't automatically make someone more expensive unless they're already in that 5th year. You have to either accept or decline it before year 4, which we have seen for a few guys such as Chase Young. 

[Just Want A Title]

2 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

1. I don't think its going to cost that much to keep Jonah Jackson honestly.  He has never graded out above a 70 by PFF and he has had injury issues every year.  Connor Williams for example from the Dolphins had back to back mid 70s years at LG on PFF in both 2020 and 2021 and he signed a two year 14M deal to stay in Miami.  Elgton Jenkins had an 82 PFF season with high 60s before that when he signed his big deal in 2022 at 17M per year.  He hasn't reproduced that level of production since so I am guessing GB is mad they gave him so much.  I think we can keep Jonah for around 8-10M per year and I would be fine doing that.  If he wants more, I am fine letting him go.  We have seen that our depth performs well in his absence and with a full offseason he can be replaced.  I would like to keep him for continuity and based on what Holmes has been doing, I could see a 2/3 year deal for him at 8-10 per year.  

2. I think Sewell is going to stick at RT.  He is the highest graded RT in the league and when Decker didn't play, we kept him at RT this year.  I think he is entrenched in that spot for good.  Decker's contract is not bad for his level of play but he needs to stay healthy.  He saves us $9.8M in cap if we cut him before June 1 or 13.7M if after June 1.  I think given its the last year of his deal we will see him play it out and likely move on when he is done unless he takes a home town discount. 

3. Offloading Okudah because of his cap was due to being picked 3rd overall, not the 5th year.  5th year options are based on the productivity such as pro-bowls, all-pros etc and position average.  Since its an option, it will never hurt us unless we don't pick it up and the player plays well.  Even then the Commanders were able to get a third for half of a year of Chase Young without the 5th year option.  Having it as an option though is huge for positions that get paid the most and are most important to success. 

 

As for your draft assessment, I think there are a lot of edge guys that will go in the first three rounds.  The top 4/5 will probably be gone before our pick but there are plenty of them that could move into the first or second that should be solid.  Similarly, DT I think is deep this year, just nothing at the top like a Carter last year.  Taylor and Newton are really good solid players with upside.  There actually seems to be more 290lb plus D Lineman with pass rushing ability this year than most so I think that sets up well for us.  

Your final point that we don't need anything is false IMO.  CB is a huge need, especially with the pending free agents.  So is DE with the guys we will lose plus they havent been good.  DT for sure can be upgraded as well.  OG/C may also very well be needs.  

Don't need anything?  I don't think I put that in what I wrote unless it was earlier in the thread.  That said, we do have needs but they aren't as glaring as they have been in years past.  Our CBs could use an upgrade but they aren't horrible.  We are still waiting on Josh Pascal to become a more impactful EDGE.  James Houston is in the shelf.  Honestly, I don't think we are doing a good enough job of getting the most out of the players we have on defense.

[Sllim Pickens]

2 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Don't need anything?  I don't think I put that in what I wrote unless it was earlier in the thread.  That said, we do have needs but they aren't as glaring as they have been in years past.  Our CBs could use an upgrade but they aren't horrible.  We are still waiting on Josh Pascal to become a more impactful EDGE.  James Houston is in the shelf.  Honestly, I don't think we are doing a good enough job of getting the most out of the players we have on defense.

Lol, I misread the last line of that post I quoted.  Thought it said we dont need anything but it said we dont know anything.  My bad. 

I agree on the rest.  And it sounds like Houston is likely out until late December so can't count on him much before the playoffs.  

[Lions017]

The draft is going to be interesting going forward before we actually have a solid foundation for the first time in a while. 

That means we can maybe be a bit more willing to take risks and really go for a home run. 

It also means that we need to be a bit forward thinking, as we actually have some talent now and we can't count on resigning all of these guys. You need to start thinking about what to do if Jonah wants more money than we're comfortable with, for example. 

[LionArkie]

36 minutes ago, Lions017 said:

The draft is going to be interesting going forward before we actually have a solid foundation for the first time in a while. 

That means we can maybe be a bit more willing to take risks and really go for a home run. 

It also means that we need to be a bit forward thinking, as we actually have some talent now and we can't count on resigning all of these guys. You need to start thinking about what to do if Jonah wants more money than we're comfortable with, for example. 

Hog mollies, then defense in any order... as long as it's hog mollies then defense, lol.

In all seriousness, I'd just like them to take the bpa in the first two rounds who isn't injured. We need top end talent bad. I feel like we have a good team of solid contributors, but just lack that top end player who strikes fear in you. If Hutch can put it all together he might be one who could do it, but I wouldn't put him in that category as of now. Gibbs might be that guy down the road, but he's still early on.

[Karnage84]

https://twitter.com/fball_insights/status/1714802679971471813/photo/1

Lions Defense Breakdown - Week 6

Man - 21%

Zone - 73%

 

1 High - 49%

2 High - 43%

 

I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure the Lions played in the top 4 of 'Man' coverage last year. 

[Louis Friend]

2 hours ago, LionArkie said:

Hog mollies, then defense in any order... as long as it's hog mollies then defense, lol.

In all seriousness, I'd just like them to take the bpa in the first two rounds who isn't injured. We need top end talent bad. I feel like we have a good team of solid contributors, but just lack that top end player who strikes fear in you. If Hutch can put it all together he might be one who could do it, but I wouldn't put him in that category as of now. Gibbs might be that guy down the road, but he's still early on.

I agree with all of this. 

[Karnage84]

@Sllim Pickens I just noticed that PFF will breakdown in the summary about the alignment for defensive line (A gap, B gap, over tackle, outside tackle, off ball). Generally when you look at "snaps by position" it just says "DLT, DRT, RE, LE, etc.". 

 

[Sllim Pickens]

14 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

@Sllim Pickens I just noticed that PFF will breakdown in the summary about the alignment for defensive line (A gap, B gap, over tackle, outside tackle, off ball). Generally when you look at "snaps by position" it just says "DLT, DRT, RE, LE, etc.". 

 

Probably valuable when comparing to the similar positioning as the guys we hope to replace.  I honestly have never looked at it that deep and pay more attention to what you are good at (getting pressure, playing the run, actually getting sacks etc) and figure it would translate or we could make it work.  But would be good to know if all of the guys I like line up were Alim and Hutch do.  Not to say that would eliminate them given Sewell was drafted at RT while never playing RT, but would help.  Something to add to the spreadsheets in the offseason eh. 

[Karnage84]

14 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Probably valuable when comparing to the similar positioning as the guys we hope to replace.  I honestly have never looked at it that deep and pay more attention to what you are good at (getting pressure, playing the run, actually getting sacks etc) and figure it would translate or we could make it work.  But would be good to know if all of the guys I like line up were Alim and Hutch do.  Not to say that would eliminate them given Sewell was drafted at RT while never playing RT, but would help.  Something to add to the spreadsheets in the offseason eh. 

There's so much overlap when it comes to some of the positions: Edge could be a 290 lb guy like Cominsky or a 240 lb guy. LB could be a MLB, ILB or play as a 3-4 Edge which is basically just a defensive end. You've got guys who are pegged at 0T, 1T, 3T, 5T, etc. 

A part of it comes from how the schools are designating someone (and where they're playing them). Another comes from the different services (PFF, PFN, etc.) and how they're listing someone. Then it will also come down to how a NFL team views that player. 

Key note: This seems to only be the case for CFB players and not in the NFL grading. So we can't exactly match up things but it's better than not having it.