Karnage84 Posted November 10, 2023 Author Share Posted November 10, 2023 REPLACING CHARLES HARRIS I'm looking ahead to the 2024 off-season and trying to help improve the overall team. We're doing a deeper dive on the defensive line. First and foremost - who takes over for Charles Harris? Charles Harris has played 231 snaps YTD (11.8%) and is 5th in overall defensive line snaps (Hutchinson, McNeill, Cominsky, B Jones in order). HT: 6'3 WT: 250 PFF OVR: 55.7 RDEF: 68.3 (132/231 snaps are counted as 'pass rushing') PRSH: 53.1 Pressures: 18/132 (11.1%) Sacks: 2/132 (1.2%) WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES? There's going to be some criteria to follow, which should eliminate some UFA's and determine if they are potentially a fit. Who knows how much some of these indicators could be used by the Lions but they're privy to a lot of stuff that we aren't. Age: I've eliminated anyone under age 26 and over age 28. The Lions might want to sign someone to a 1 year deal but I'm looking at guys that we can keep for 2-3 years. Size: Josh Uche and K'Lavon Chaisson are both a bit lighter than what is ideal. We're looking at 255-260+ Pressures: We're eliminating any candidates that aren't at least matching Harris' 11.1%. (Chaisson, Toohill, Jennings, Danna, Wonnum, Barnett, Davenport, Ferrell and Smith-Williams all fall short) Sacks: A part of the Lions problem is not getting sacks from guys who aren't named Aidan Hutchinson. Having a player that can convert pressures into sacks is going to help free up Hutchinson and allow him to make more plays. All of the eligible candidates who were filted by pressures meet and exceed Harris' 1.2% Let's see who makes the cut: Bryce Huff, Jets - 82.7 OVR; 58.8 RDEF; 82.8 PRSH; 29.3% PRESSURE; 3.3% SACK AJ Epenesa, Bills - 82.5 OVR; 64.7 RDEF; 72.6 PRSH; 13.7% PRESSURE; 3.3% SACK Jonathan Greenard, Texans - 77.1 OVR; 74.6 RDEF; 69.1 PRSH; 11.4% PRESSURE; 3.1% SACK Trevis Gipson, Titans - 90.3 ovr; 68.0 RDEF; 90.6 PRSH; 20.6% PRESSURE; 2.9% SACK Chase Young, 49ers - 75.4 OVR; 58.1 RDEF; 79.7 PRSH; 15.4% PRESSURE; 2.4% SACK Contract: The Lions under Brad Holmes have generally been pretty smart when doling out contracts. We've either done a series of 1 year veteran deals and/or signing guys to multi-year deals at a discount. Greenard: Spotrac is projecting $17M Huff: Over The Cap is projecting $14.5M Epenesa: Over The Cap is projecting $6.1M Young: If the Lions wanted Young, we probably would have made the trade for him. I suspect that we are unlikely to be suitors for him (even though he fits all of the other criteria) Selection: AJ Epenesa If the Bills let him go, Epenesa seems like the right fit to play alongside of Aidan Hutchinson. He is solid against the run, can add pressure while also converting that into production. All of this is at a reasonable cost. There's a few draft eligible players that we can add to back-up and develop behind Epenesa. I'd prefer to lean on a veteran presence as I expect they would help us take that next step up (whatever step that is). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 10, 2023 Author Share Posted November 10, 2023 (edited) REPLACING (MAYBE) JOHN COMINSKY HT: 6'5 WT: 285 OVR: 59.1 RDEF: 58.8 PRSH: 56.8 PRESSURE: 21/200 snaps (10.5%) SACKS: 1/200 snaps (0.5%) Cominsky is getting pressure but he isn't turning that into production. He plays the third most snaps on the defensive line, so he is an integral part of the Lions and what they do. However, a potential upgrade could be fair and allow the defense to take the next jump. WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES? There's going to be some criteria to follow, which should eliminate some UFA's and determine if they are potentially a fit. Who knows how much some of these indicators could be used by the Lions but they're privy to a lot of stuff that we aren't. Age: I've eliminated anyone under age 26 and over age 28. The Lions might want to sign someone to a 1 year deal but I'm looking at guys that we can keep for 2-3 years. Size: Ideally we should be playing someone at or near that 280 - 290 range. Pressures: If we're going to replace Cominsky, they need to at least offer similar production. None of the UFA's meet this mark. Closest comparables are Kevin Givens (8.8%); Taven Bryan (6.9%); Rasheem Green (5.7%) and Kentavius Street (5.4%). Sacks: There are some guys that vastly exceed Cominsky in this department. Taven Bryan is tops at 2.3%; Kevin Strong (2.0%) and Rasheem Green (1.4%). Contract: Cominsky has a cap hit of $6.2M in 2024. If he was released prior to June 1st, the Lions would save $4.5M. Taven Bryan: $6.6M Spotrac Kevin Strong: $3.7M OTC Rasheem Green: $3.4M Spotrac There aren't a lot of UFA options that will fit and upgrade the role that Cominsky plays. This is a spot the Lions should target in the draft. Josh Paschal has been battling injuries and is not the obvious replacement (as one would think or have hoped). Selection: Draft Edited November 10, 2023 by Karnage84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sllim Pickens Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 I like Cominsky the player but not the contract. I think he is a 2/3M player and if thats what he was making, we should keep him around. I think for 6M (or even the 4.5 we get back) we can get more production somewhere. I think the draft is going to be a big spot for this role. Brandon Dorlus is one I would keep an eye on along with Michael Hall, Howard Cross, Shemar Turner, Tyleik Williams, and Darius Robinson. Cross, Williams and Dorlus are my favorites from that group. The Harris role I would like to see someone like Epenesa or even Uche even though he is small. I think if we went the Uche route, we would just focus on using Houston there more given they are similar players. Gipson doesn't have a lot of snaps this year so the PFF score is skewed (was a 48 last year and 70 the year before with more volume) but he may be a cheap option for depth with upside at the smaller edge roll. Guys I like in the draft are Latu, Verse, Robinson and Turner who likely will be drafted ahead of us as well as more likely candidates Bralen Trice (may have him above a couple of the others currently projected top 20), JT Tuimoloau, Jonah Ellis (may be too small), Princely Umanmielen, Gabriel Murphy, Mohamed Komara, and Jasheen Davis. Latu and Trice are probably my top two in that group for our first but likely gone so then Princely, Murphy and Komara are targets in the second round, maybe first with good combines and if there is a run on edges in round 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 10, 2023 Author Share Posted November 10, 2023 (edited) REPLACING BENITO JONES/BRODRIC MARTIN Benito Jones has played the 4th most snaps on the roster. However, we have all wanted to see more pressure come from the defensive interior. Benito Jones: 6'1, 335 lbs Brodric Martin: 6'5, 330 lbs *Isaiah Buggs was also in the 330's BJ: 43.8 OVR; 35.8 RDEF; 53.3 PRSH; 7.0% PRESSURE; 0.6% SACK BM: 49.6 OVR; 52.6 RDEF; 57.1 PRSH; 0.0% PRESSUREL 0.0% SACK The Lions just took Martin last year in the draft and traded up for him in the process. There's something they must see in him and likely want to see him take the reigns. However, at this point, they haven't put him in a starting role and he hasn't produced to justify the move going forward. So we'll look at some other candidates and see if there is an external upgrade (in case Martin still needs time to develop). WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES? There's going to be some criteria to follow, which should eliminate some UFA's and determine if they are potentially a fit. Who knows how much some of these indicators could be used by the Lions but they're privy to a lot of stuff that we aren't. Age: I've eliminated anyone under age 26 and over age 28. The Lions might want to sign someone to a 1 year deal but I'm looking at guys that we can keep for 2-3 years. Size: The Lions seem to have a requirement of around 330 lbs in this role. Pressures: The only NT in the UFA list that comes close to Jone's pressure rate is Raekwon Davis. The one player that could potentially fit here (albeit falls outside of the weight category) - Javon Kinlaw. He's sitting at 10.9%. However, he fits much closer to McNeill. Sacks: Leki Fotu fits the size bill at 6'5, 334 lbs with a 1.9% sack rate. Contract: Kinlaw has an OTC value of $2.5 and Spotrac of $5.4M. All of the other candidates don't have projections. Selection: Brodric Martin or The Draft We aren't likely to see natural fits who are upgrades in UFA. If we were to add Kinlaw, we'd probably have to tinker with Alim's role. Fotu and Davis do fit the size profile and offer improvements in some areas but lack in others. We are more likely to see the Lions try to develop Brodric Martin while adding someone to give him competition. Until proven otherwise, the job is going to be Benito Jones' to lose. Edited November 10, 2023 by Karnage84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 10, 2023 Author Share Posted November 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said: I like Cominsky the player but not the contract. I think he is a 2/3M player and if thats what he was making, we should keep him around. Agreed. However, we could get more out of the spot. Unfortunately, there's not an immediate 'plug-and-play' option in free agency that feels like a natural fit. 13 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said: I think the draft is going to be a big spot for this role. Brandon Dorlus is one I would keep an eye on along with Michael Hall, Howard Cross, Shemar Turner, Tyleik Williams, and Darius Robinson. Cross, Williams and Dorlus are my favorites from that group. Agreed. We do need to find that balance between veterans and rookies. This is why I wanted to start off with the UFA class to see how some of these might be addressed pre-draft. That'll help in terms of draft assets being invested. My thought about Ragnow potentially retiring is resonating and is generating the thought process of "what if we have a more pressing need/have a deep edge class"? When I've been doing mocks I've generally just started with the best edge player available and not really considering the fit. I'm just trying to work on identifying guys for the Lions and how we might resolve some of the issues we have on D (and the rest of the team). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 10, 2023 Author Share Posted November 10, 2023 29 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said: Brandon Dorlus is one I would keep an eye on along with Michael Hall, Howard Cross, Shemar Turner, Tyleik Williams, and Darius Robinson. Cross, Williams and Dorlus are my favorites from that group. Dorlus - 2nd round Hall - 3rd round Cross - 3rd round Turner - 4th round T. Williams - 4th round Robinson - 5th round I've also looked at JT Tuimoloau from Ohio State. However, he's 270 lbs, which makes me question his fit there. He's also too big to take over for Harris. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sllim Pickens Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 16 minutes ago, Karnage84 said: Dorlus - 2nd round Hall - 3rd round Cross - 3rd round Turner - 4th round T. Williams - 4th round Robinson - 5th round I've also looked at JT Tuimoloau from Ohio State. However, he's 270 lbs, which makes me question his fit there. He's also too big to take over for Harris. Agreed on Tuimoloau but he is also close to the size of Paschal so could end up being a fit for that other roll if he adds 5 lbs or this role if he loses 5 lbs. Dorlus I like but he is an older prospect, one of those that is in a covid year so it makes a little sense to why he is having a big year. He has been very good pressure wise all throughout though and his 5 batted balls I like meaning he is aware and gets his hands up even if he isn't getting pressure. He will be 23 on draft day which may be good as far as easier transition physically but may hurt in that younger prospects offer more upside/growth usually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 10, 2023 Author Share Posted November 10, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said: Agreed on Tuimoloau but he is also close to the size of Paschal so could end up being a fit for that other roll if he adds 5 lbs or this role if he loses 5 lbs. True - which is why he is a target but not a lock. I would have a tough time justifying spending a 1st round pick on a guy who is 5th in snaps if he's replacing Harris(meaning he's getting subbed for a DB frequently enough). It would make more sense if he's brought in to replace Cominsky/Paschal. I do think it's more likely for an immediate upgrade to come from a higher round prospect instead of a later round pick. I do like the addition of someone like Dorlus or Cross coming in. I had not looked at age as of draft time, so those comments on Dorlus are noted. Edited November 10, 2023 by Karnage84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 11, 2023 Author Share Posted November 11, 2023 ADDING DEPTH BEHIND MCNEILL HT: 6'2 WT: 315 OVR: 84.6 RDEF: 74.0 PRSH: 73.5 PRESSURE: 20/219 (9.1%) SACKS: 4/219 (1.8%) McNeill plays the second most defensive line snaps with only Aidan Hutchinson beating him out. He gets moved around the line but splits most of his time between DLT and DRT. He's a player the Lions want to build around. Instead of replacing Alim, we're looking to find a capable backup. WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES? There's going to be some criteria to follow, which should eliminate some UFA's and determine if they are potentially a fit. Who knows how much some of these indicators could be used by the Lions but they're privy to a lot of stuff that we aren't. Age: I've eliminated anyone under age 26 and over age 28. The Lions might want to sign someone to a 1 year deal but I'm looking at guys that we can keep for 2-3 years. Size: Alim is 315 but we'll keep a range of 305 - 320. Pressures: The obvious candidate here is Justin Madubuike of the Ravens. He's coming in with an 11.3% pressure rate. Armon Watts exceeds that at a full 12.0%. Sacks: There's a few guys that fit this bill - Jordan Elliott, CLE (3.2%); Madubuike (3.0%); Armon Watts, PIT (1.2%). Contract: Madubuike has a contract projection of $12M. Jordan Elliott has a projection of $2.7M while Watts is at $1.7M according to OTC. SELECTION: Armon Watts (6'5, 307) Watts grades out fairly well with PFF in the OVR and against the run. He has good size overall, despite being smaller than Alim. His pressure and sack percentages are amongst the top in this group. He'll come at a reasonable contract. At age 28, he's someone that the Lions can sign to a 1 or 2-year deal. He also brings in a veteran presence. We're already looking at adding youth in the Cominsky role while Brodric Martin is only going to be a 2nd year player. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 11, 2023 Author Share Posted November 11, 2023 DL DEPTH CHART (AMENDED - WORK IN PROGRESS) The story so far: Rush: Hutchinson, Epenesa, [OPEN] DT: McNeill, Watts NT: [Draft], Jones, Martin DE: [Draft], Cominsky, Paschal SLB: Campbell, Houston Practically, it'd look more like: LE: Hutchinson, [OPEN] DLT: McNeill, Watts DRT: [Draft], Jones, Martin RE: [Draft], Cominsky, Paschal REO: Epenesa, [OPEN] With the Lions in a prime position to win this division and continue to build, there's going to be a balance between veterans and rookies in starting roles. Edited 21 hours ago by Karnage84 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 11, 2023 Author Share Posted November 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Karnage84 said: LE: Hutchinson, [OPEN] DLT: McNeill, Watts DRT: [Draft], Jones, Martin RE: [Draft], Cominsky, Paschal REO: Epenesa, [OPEN] I haven't gotten too deep at this point but an idea of what it MIGHT look like (players/draft capital invested). I still need to look at other areas of the team and order team needs/BPA. LE: Hutchinson, [OPEN] DLT: McNeill, Watts DRT: Sweat, Jones, Martin RE: Cominsky,Cross, Paschal REO: Epenesa, Davis Rd3 Pick 84 - T'Vondre Sweat, Texas: 6'4, 362 lbs [NT - S] Rd3 Pick 92 - Howard Cross, Notre Dame: 6'0, 288 [RE -B/S] Rd 5 Pick 166 - Jasheen Davis, Wake Forest: 6'3, 259 lbs [REO - B] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 13, 2023 Author Share Posted November 13, 2023 On 11/6/2023 at 7:03 PM, Karnage84 said: OL DEPTH CHART LT - Decker, [OPEN] LG - Jackson, Awosika OC - Ragnow, Glasgow, [OPEN] RG - Glasgow, [OPEN] RT - Sewell, Sorsdal REPLACING FRANK RAGNOW (PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE) Depending on what happens this year, the Lions need to prepare for the eventual replacement of Frank Ragnow up the middle. WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES? On the roster: Graham Glasgow: The only true OC backup on the Lions roster. Glasgow was drafted as an OC and was the starting OC from 2018 - 2020. He also played 609 snaps at OC in 2022 for the Broncos. Jonah Jackson: Jackson had 220 snaps at OC while at Ohio State. He has also had 24 snaps while with the Lions. If the Lions were to plug in someone like Glasgow to play OC, it would leave a gap at RG, which has been a revolving door for the last few years. Jackson is a UFA and there is no guarantee he will come back. The Lions will also not sign him to a big contract only to play OC. UFA'S Evan Brown, Seattle (59.4 OVR): Brown is a former Lion and he left after the Lions signed his replacement in Graham Glasgow. Brown had shown himself to be a versatile player who could flip between OC and RG. A reunion could be in the works as he signed a 1-year deal with Seattle. Andre James, Las Vegas (68.2 OVR): The Raiders are a team in flux. They are in search of a new HC after firing McDaniel's. They have $67M in cap room. I suspect that they'll find a way to bring James back unless he's just flat-out not a scheme fit for the new HC/OC. Trystan Colon, Arizona (63.7 OVR): Currently starting at LG for the Cardinals. He was waived by the Jets this year. The Cardinals have $64M in cap room and are going to try and build around a young QB (whether that is Kyler Murray or a new rookie). I suspect Colon would re-sign on a fairly team friendly deal. Matt Hennessy, Atlanta (N/A): Hennessy is currently on IR with a knee injury that he suffered during training camp. He has lingering issues (according to this AP article). There's probably going to be a new HC in Atlanta and Hennessy is probably someone that can be signed cheaply (but comes with some risk). Lloyd Cushenberry, Denver (68.6 OVR): The Broncos are -$3.8M in cap room for 2024. The team is a mess. Someone like Cushenberry could be available. OTC has a valuation of $10M. This is someone the Lions would have to target early in free agency (meaning that Ragnow opted out at the end of the season). Sam Mustipher, Baltimore (69.2 OVR): The Ravens are a pretty complete team. They have cap room next year but have some guys to re-sign. He's probably not going to be an available option without overpaying Tyler Biadasz, Dallas (62.6 OVR): The Cowboys are currently - $1.3M in cap space in 2024. They're going to need to make some moves just in order to be cap-compliant let alone re-sign some of their guys. THE DRAFT Rd1 Rd2 Rd3 Rd4 Rd5 Rd6 Rd7 TOTAL 2013 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 5 2014 0 1 2 2 2 2 1 10 2015 0 0 1 2 0 1 1 5 2016 1 1 3 1 0 1 1 8 2017 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 5 2018 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 2019 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 5 2020 1 0 2 1 2 1 2 9 2021 0 3 2 1 0 1 2 9 2022 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 6 2023 0 3 1 1 1 2 1 9 7 12 14 12 8 13 13 79 There have been seven round 1 OC's in the past 10 years. The majority of players designated as OC's have been drafted in round 2 and beyond. PFF only has 5 players designated as OC's in their simulator with the earliest ADP being 55.5 for Oregon's Jackson Powers-Johnson. For the Lions to consider drafting a player in round 1 at this position, we would need to see Ragnow retire early and have a scenario where the Lions are unable to land their preferred UFA option. Likely outcome: An Evan Brown reunion and the selection of someone in rounds 3-5 who could eventually develop to replace Ragnow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louis Friend Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 This is shaping up to be a deep OL draft. I wouldn’t mind drafting at least 2 OL this draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 13, 2023 Author Share Posted November 13, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Louis Friend said: This is shaping up to be a deep OL draft. I wouldn’t mind drafting at least 2 OL this draft. I'm of the belief that we're probably going to add an IOL and an OT via the draft. There's just a few different ways that things could go and I'm trying to read the tea leaves to see which might seem most likely. However, we only have so many picks and it's hard to be like "we should draft someone here and draft someone there" when there's so many different gaps to address while you're also looking at investment/expectations vs needs. Edited November 13, 2023 by Karnage84 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Want A Title Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Karnage84 said: I'm of the belief that we're probably going to add an IOL and an OT via the draft. There's just a few different ways that things could go and I'm trying to read the tea leaves to see which might seem most likely. It seems like there will be a lot of very solid players available after the first round. For me, the best situation would be to move back into the early 2d-round. That would give us 2nd round picks and two 3rd-round picks. That should give us a shot at some good prospects at OG, OT, CB and WR. All of those groups seem strong in rounds 2 and 3 right now. Already man-crushing on Florida A&M CB Kendall Bohler. Edited November 13, 2023 by Just Want A Title Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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