Karnage84 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 (edited) It's week 9, we're in a bye. There isn't a ton of Lions-related news at the moment. It's the perfect time to look ahead to the off-season and get an idea of what it might look like. I'm going to make some assumptions as part of this process. A lot can change between now and March. There's a few guys who are showing up on the roster due to void years who aren't actually going to play for us. RE-SIGNINGS Jonah Jackson - 4 years x $12M APY: There are rumblings of a potential Frank Ragnow retirement and Taylor Decker is aging. The Lions bring back a relatively proven player in Jackson. Offensive line chemistry is very important. It's not my ideal scenario but I have a hard time seeing the Lions swapping out 3/5 starters (Jackson, Ragow, Vaitai) and possibly even losing Decker (or getting a less than 100% Decker). Josh Reynolds - 2 years x $2.5M APY: The Goff to Reynolds connection has been a very reliable one ever since he joined us from the Rams. Reynolds comes back on a fairly friendly deal Donovan Peoples-Jones - 3 years x $3.5M APY: I'm expecting that DPJ should give us DJ Chark-level production over the remaining 8 weeks. He could arguably push Jamo for playing time Craig Reynolds - 1 year x $1.5M APY: The Lions like Reynolds and he's been relatively decent in relief when called upon. The Lions are going to rely on the duo of Montgomery and Gibbs but Reynolds will have his place Kayode Awosika [ERFA]- 1 year x $915k: He's played well enough that he deserves to be brought back as a depth piece/spot starter Jerry Jacobs (RFA) - ROR $2.9M: Jacobs has been a starter opposite of Sutton and I believe the Lions like him quite a bit. We should expect to see some competition added both in free agency and in the draft. Benito Jones (RFA) - ROR $2.9M: The Lions seem to have something against Isaiah Buggs. Jones has been given playing time as a starter alongside McNeill. We won't see a wholesale change but we'll see some pieces get moved around/cut (Levi is on the chopping block). Teddy Bridgewater - 1 year x $3M: We've seen the impact that losing a QB can have on a team's season. Even with the potential development of Hooker, Bridgewater should still be brought back as insurance. LET WALK Brock Wright Matt Nelson Dan Skipper Scott Daly Shane Zylstra Nate Sudfeld Jason Cabinda Will Harris Anthony Pittman Hal Vaitai Emmanuel Moseley TEAM NEEDS TE2 DT CB S FUTURE NEEDS OC: Ragnow could be a post-June 1st retirement and should not be considered a long-term part of the roster. Having his replacement in-house would be beneficial OT: Decker's time is not long for this roster. Sewell could slide over to LT leaving a need at RT or a future LT is drafted as his successor. RG: Graham Glasgow has secured the RG position and can back up at OC. If Ragnow sticks around, the Lions could look to add depth pieces to eventually take over. If Ragnow does retire, then it escalates the team's need into a more immediate concern. WR: Reynolds and Raymond aren't long-term options while the team is still unsure of what they have in Jamo. OL DEPTH CHART LT - Decker, [OPEN] LG - Jackson, Awosika OC - Ragnow, Glasgow, [OPEN] RG - Glasgow, [OPEN] RT - Sewell, Sorsdal Edited January 29 by Karnage84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 7, 2023 Author Share Posted November 7, 2023 (edited) FREE AGENCY AJ Epenesa, EDGE (26): Hutchinson needs a running mate and the Lions opted to not go out and trade for either Sweat or Young (while also paying them). Epenesa offers decent size (6'6, 260 lbs) and grades out well (82.5) as a pass-rusher (72.6) and the run (64.7). He's generating pressures on nearly 14% of his pass rush snaps (Hutch is 15%) and has 5 sacks (3.3% vs Hutch at 1.3% ). Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE (26): Gross-Matos is slated more to take over for Charles Harris' role. He's not overly flashy and isn't getting a ton of plays but he's getting pressures (11.5%) and sacks (3.8%). Taking @Louis Friend take into consideration here. OverTheCap's valuation has Epenesa at $6.5M. Edited November 9, 2023 by Karnage84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louis Friend Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 I want no part of YGM. He was also one of the rapists at Penn State with Micah Parsons. Don’t want that in our locker room. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 9, 2023 Author Share Posted November 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Louis Friend said: I want no part of YGM. He was also one of the rapists at Penn State with Micah Parsons. Don’t want that in our locker room. Would you take Micah Parsons the player he is now on our team? Any comments on the rest? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Want A Title Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 I would keep Brock Wright and Scott Daly. Brock Wright should be affordable as a blocking TE. Scott Daly was very good as a LS prior to his knee injury and continuity at LS is very helpful Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 9, 2023 Author Share Posted November 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said: I would keep Brock Wright and Scott Daly. Brock Wright should be affordable as a blocking TE. Scott Daly was very good as a LS prior to his knee injury and continuity at LS is very helpful There is some refinement in all of this. Good comments re: Daly. I do think we can do better at TE2. I'm exploring that. Currently working on the OL/DL as part of the UFA/draft needs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sllim Pickens Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 I have a hard time thinking we will keep the same exact WR core next year. I think either DPJ or Reynolds will be gone and a rookie will be brought in. I don't count on Green or other fringe guys to make the team but I think we want some more youth while keeping some vets in the room. I wouldn't be shocked to see Raymond cut if we chose to keep the other two even though we gave him an extension but things have changed as has his role on the team since then. OL I am not planning on Ragnow retiring but it would not shock me. I hope if he does, that he does it early or at least lets us know early so we can replace him. Glasgow is solid, but I would want something else there ready to go if he is having those thoughts. I agree with the above about Daly and Brock Wright. I think he is cheap enough to warrant keeping around and the staff likes him. We could maybe do better but he should be cheap, knows the system, and is better than Mitchell. Especially with the changes on the line, having a trusty blocking TE will be big. Also need to add the Okwara brothers and Charles Harris to the let walk section. I know those are void years but I don't see any scenario where we bring them back. Because of that, Edge should definitely be on the needs list, which you touched on with your free agent targets. Speaking of the free agent targets, I don't think YGM is really worth much at this point and as others have said, the off field stuff before can impact the locker room. I like Epenesa at that price actually but think he may get more. Chase Young is still scheduled to be a free agent and I don't see SF franchise tagging him. We could still have a shot at adding him if the price is right. Jonathan Greenard is another younger edge that we could look at but he may have played himself into big money. Mike Dana is another cheaper 255lb edge that could fit in if KC can't resign him. DT is a spot I would like to add a free agent as well. Justin Madubuike would be a nice fit as a pass rushing DT but may cost too much. He will be cheaper than the Chris Jones, Christian Wilkins, Leonard Williams group but probably still in the 10+ Mil a year range which seems high for what Holmes usually does in free agency. We definitely will need to do something at DB. I think re-signing CJGJ makes sense as long as he is healthy. Maybe a little cheaper than last year or even a 2 year deal but I think his attitude and play on the field when healthy is good for the D. I agree to let Harris walk, also likely letting Mosely walk. Kendall Fuller would be a solid get at CB on a 2 year deal but likely a higher target than we are after. Sean Murphy-Bunting is another I would like that is younger and likely a bigger contract because of that. Ahkello Witherspoon is a cheaper option we may look at since Holmes was there when drafted by the Rams. Marcus Peters could be an option but getting old so would likely be on a short term deal and again is not like Holmes to make a move like him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 9, 2023 Author Share Posted November 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said: I have a hard time thinking we will keep the same exact WR core next year. I think either DPJ or Reynolds will be gone and a rookie will be brought in. I don't count on Green or other fringe guys to make the team but I think we want some more youth while keeping some vets in the room. I wouldn't be shocked to see Raymond cut if we chose to keep the other two even though we gave him an extension but things have changed as has his role on the team since then. OL I am not planning on Ragnow retiring but it would not shock me. I hope if he does, that he does it early or at least lets us know early so we can replace him. Glasgow is solid, but I would want something else there ready to go if he is having those thoughts. I agree with the above about Daly and Brock Wright. I think he is cheap enough to warrant keeping around and the staff likes him. We could maybe do better but he should be cheap, knows the system, and is better than Mitchell. Especially with the changes on the line, having a trusty blocking TE will be big. Also need to add the Okwara brothers and Charles Harris to the let walk section. I know those are void years but I don't see any scenario where we bring them back. Because of that, Edge should definitely be on the needs list, which you touched on with your free agent targets. Speaking of the free agent targets, I don't think YGM is really worth much at this point and as others have said, the off field stuff before can impact the locker room. I like Epenesa at that price actually but think he may get more. Chase Young is still scheduled to be a free agent and I don't see SF franchise tagging him. We could still have a shot at adding him if the price is right. Jonathan Greenard is another younger edge that we could look at but he may have played himself into big money. Mike Dana is another cheaper 255lb edge that could fit in if KC can't resign him. DT is a spot I would like to add a free agent as well. Justin Madubuike would be a nice fit as a pass rushing DT but may cost too much. He will be cheaper than the Chris Jones, Christian Wilkins, Leonard Williams group but probably still in the 10+ Mil a year range which seems high for what Holmes usually does in free agency. We definitely will need to do something at DB. I think re-signing CJGJ makes sense as long as he is healthy. Maybe a little cheaper than last year or even a 2 year deal but I think his attitude and play on the field when healthy is good for the D. I agree to let Harris walk, also likely letting Mosely walk. Kendall Fuller would be a solid get at CB on a 2 year deal but likely a higher target than we are after. Sean Murphy-Bunting is another I would like that is younger and likely a bigger contract because of that. Ahkello Witherspoon is a cheaper option we may look at since Holmes was there when drafted by the Rams. Marcus Peters could be an option but getting old so would likely be on a short term deal and again is not like Holmes to make a move like him. LOLB LEO LE DLT NT DRT RE REO ROLB SNAPS 249 172 149 283 126 295 125 88 89 1576 15.8% 10.9% 9.5% 18.0% 8.0% 18.7% 7.9% 5.6% 5.6% LOLB LEO LE DLT NT DRT RE REO ROLB Hutchinson Hutchinson Cominsky McNeill B Jones McNeill Cominsky Harris Harris Campbell Cominsky Hutchinson B Jones Buggs B Jones McNeill R Okwara Hutchinson Harris R Okwara McNeill Buggs Cominsky Buggs Hutchinson Cominsky Campbell Paschal Cominsky McNeill Cominsky B Jones Paschal J Okwara Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 9, 2023 Author Share Posted November 9, 2023 SNAPS SNAP% Alim Mcneill 333 21.1% Isaiah Buggs 110 7.0% Benito Jones 253 16.1% Brodric Martin 11 0.7% John Cominsky 282 17.9% Josh Paschal 56 3.6% Aidan Hutchinson 437 27.7% Jack Campbell 92 5.8% Romeo Okwara 114 7.2% Julian Okwara 44 2.8% Charles Harris 231 14.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 9, 2023 Author Share Posted November 9, 2023 OVR RDEF PRSH PRSH PRESS SACK PRESS % SACK % Alim Mcneill 84.6 74.0 73.5 219 20 4 9.1% 1.8% Isaiah Buggs 69.3 63.4 64.4 65 5 1 7.7% 1.5% Benito Jones 43.8 35.8 53.3 158 11 1 7.0% 0.6% Brodric Martin 49.6 52.6 57.1 4 0 0 0.0% 0.0% John Cominsky 59.1 58.8 56.8 200 21 1 10.5% 0.5% Josh Paschal 63.7 67.9 55.3 38 3 0 7.9% 0.0% Aidan Hutchinson 90.0 58.5 89.3 306 46 4 15.0% 1.3% Jack Campbell 46.3 65.1 48.3 52 4 1 7.7% 1.9% Romeo Okwara 71.5 68.1 60 74 7 0 9.5% 0.0% Julian Okwara 61.4 61.3 65.7 28 4 2 14.3% 7.1% Charles Harris 55.7 68.3 53.1 162 18 2 11.1% 1.2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 9, 2023 Author Share Posted November 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Karnage84 said: OVR RDEF PRSH PRSH PRESS SACK PRESS % SACK % Alim Mcneill 84.6 74.0 73.5 219 20 4 9.1% 1.8% Isaiah Buggs 69.3 63.4 64.4 65 5 1 7.7% 1.5% Benito Jones 43.8 35.8 53.3 158 11 1 7.0% 0.6% Brodric Martin 49.6 52.6 57.1 4 0 0 0.0% 0.0% John Cominsky 59.1 58.8 56.8 200 21 1 10.5% 0.5% Josh Paschal 63.7 67.9 55.3 38 3 0 7.9% 0.0% Aidan Hutchinson 90.0 58.5 89.3 306 46 4 15.0% 1.3% Jack Campbell 46.3 65.1 48.3 52 4 1 7.7% 1.9% Romeo Okwara 71.5 68.1 60 74 7 0 9.5% 0.0% Julian Okwara 61.4 61.3 65.7 28 4 2 14.3% 7.1% Charles Harris 55.7 68.3 53.1 162 18 2 11.1% 1.2% From what I'm looking at here (YTD): Cominsky: For as much as he is on the field, he is not turning pressures into sacks. We'd probably have to turn on the tape to see if anyone like McNeill is getting boosted as a result of his work. The Lions need a legit threat opposite of Hutchinson that can turn those pressures into sacks Hutchinson: If he can get freed more often, I expect his sack numbers will go up. He's killing it in terms of pressures even with being a focal point for OC's to scheme around him Benito Jones/Isaiah Buggs: We need to upgrade the NT position. McNeill also needs a stronger partner putting pressure up the middle and converting that into sacks. Harris: He's on the field a ton (5th most snaps) and is fairly effective as a pass rusher (looking at pressure % and sack %). Okwara Bro's: Julian is on the field the least but is the most effective while Romeo is the least effective out the group of Romeo, Julian and Charles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 9, 2023 Author Share Posted November 9, 2023 COMINSKY HT WT OVR RDEF PRSH PRSH PRSS SCK PRSS% SCK% JT Tuimoloau 76 270 76.4 68.5 78.7 251 30 4 12.0% 1.6% Brandon Dorlus 75 290 75.6 68.3 78.4 244 32 3 13.1% 1.2% Mekhi Wingo 73 295 79.3 80.0 71.1 205 14 3 6.8% 1.5% Ruke Orhorhoro 76 295 73.3 78.5 61.9 173 15 3 8.7% 1.7% Michael Hall 74 280 73.9 68.5 80.0 186 23 2 12.4% 1.1% Howard Cross 72 288 88.0 84.1 84.8 261 30 3 11.5% 1.1% Shemar Turner 76 290 78.9 68.3 84.1 188 28 4 14.9% 2.1% Tyleik Williams 74 290 85.2 80.9 70.0 246 15 1 6.1% 0.4% TJ Sanders 77 298 70.4 66.9 70.2 204 17 5 8.3% 2.5% Darius Robinson 77 296 79.4 78.9 74.5 192 26 6 13.5% 3.1% Jordan Burch 78 290 70.0 69.7 62.4 185 14 3 7.6% 1.6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 9, 2023 Author Share Posted November 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Karnage84 said: COMINSKY HT WT OVR RDEF PRSH PRSH PRSS SCK PRSS% SCK% JT Tuimoloau 76 270 76.4 68.5 78.7 251 30 4 12.0% 1.6% Brandon Dorlus 75 290 75.6 68.3 78.4 244 32 3 13.1% 1.2% Mekhi Wingo 73 295 79.3 80.0 71.1 205 14 3 6.8% 1.5% Ruke Orhorhoro 76 295 73.3 78.5 61.9 173 15 3 8.7% 1.7% Michael Hall 74 280 73.9 68.5 80.0 186 23 2 12.4% 1.1% Howard Cross 72 288 88.0 84.1 84.8 261 30 3 11.5% 1.1% Shemar Turner 76 290 78.9 68.3 84.1 188 28 4 14.9% 2.1% Tyleik Williams 74 290 85.2 80.9 70.0 246 15 1 6.1% 0.4% TJ Sanders 77 298 70.4 66.9 70.2 204 17 5 8.3% 2.5% Darius Robinson 77 296 79.4 78.9 74.5 192 26 6 13.5% 3.1% Jordan Burch 78 290 70.0 69.7 62.4 185 14 3 7.6% 1.6% For context, Aidan "Try Hard" Hutchinson had a pressure % of 18.9% and a sack % of 3.6% as a prospect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louis Friend Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 16 hours ago, Karnage84 said: Would you take Micah Parsons the player he is now on our team? Any comments on the rest? No. I want nothing to do with Parsons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 9, 2023 Author Share Posted November 9, 2023 BUGGS HT WT OVR RDEF PRSH PRSH PRSS SCK PRSS% SCK% McKinnley Jackson 74 325 68.8 66 68.3 173 9 4 5.2% 2.3% T'Vondre Sweat 76 362 91.3 90.8 85.5 188 19 1 10.1% 0.5% Nazir Stackhouse 75 320 71.2 76.3 57.7 132 2 2 1.5% 1.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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