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A 2024 OFF-SEASON PROJECTION (POST NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME)


Karnage84

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19 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

DEPTH CHART (POST-DRAFT)

OFFENSE

QB: Goff, Hooker, Bridgewater

RB: Montgomery, Gibbs, Reynolds

LT: Decker, Amegadjie

LG: Jackson, Awosika

OC: Ragnow, Limmer

RG: Glasgow, Brown

RT: Sewell, Sorsdal

LWR: Reynolds, Legette, Green

SWR: St. Brown, Raymond

RWR: Williams, Peoples-Jones

TE: LaPorta, Wright, Mitchell

 

DEFENSE

Rush: Hutchinson, Gillotte, [OPEN]

DT: McNeill, Watts

NT: Jones, Sweat, Martin,

DE: Cominsky, Jackson, Paschal, Epenesa

WLB: Anzalone, Campbell, Reeves-Maybin

MLB: Barnes, Rodriguez, Nowaske

LCB: Sutton, Tampa

SCB: Branch, Murphy-Bunting

RCB: Moseley, Jacobs, Dorsey

FS: Walker, Gardner-Johnson

SS: Joseph, Melifonwu

Curious to get your thoughts on the mock @Sllim Pickens

UFA'S (ACCORDING TO THE PFN SIMULATOR/PFN RANKINGS)

  • Erick All, TE, Iowa
  • AJ Barner, TE, Michigan
  • Julian Fleming, WR, Ohio State
  • Joe Evans, NT, UTSA
  • Howard Cross, DT, Notre Dame
  • Shemar Turner, DE, Texas A&M
  • Gabriel Murphy, Edge, UCLA
  • Ennis Rakestraw, CB, Missouri
  • Dwight McGlothern, CB, Arkansas
  • Lathan Ransom, S, Ohio State
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20 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

Curious to get your thoughts on the mock @Sllim Pickens

UFA'S (ACCORDING TO THE PFN SIMULATOR/PFN RANKINGS)

  • Erick All, TE, Iowa
  • AJ Barner, TE, Michigan
  • Julian Fleming, WR, Ohio State
  • Joe Evans, NT, UTSA
  • Howard Cross, DT, Notre Dame
  • Shemar Turner, DE, Texas A&M
  • Gabriel Murphy, Edge, UCLA
  • Ennis Rakestraw, CB, Missouri
  • Dwight McGlothern, CB, Arkansas
  • Lathan Ransom, S, Ohio State

Based on who and where you drafted, and the UDFA, I am assuming this was on PFN which I think is very wrong on their rankings.  So overall I think you added great talent, just doubt it will be there when the draft rolls around.  

I don't mind the move down depending on who is available but not a big fan of Legette there. He scares me in being a one year wonder guy.  I prefer early picks to have proven they are good over two or three years.  

Landon Jackson I don't know much about and don't see him on your spreadsheet.  He has great size and is getting sacks but his pressure rate seems awfully low (4.5% of pass rush snaps). So again I don't think I would take him there.   

Sweat I love and he fits the bill next to McNeil.  He likely will be a 2nd rounder, maybe a first after all is said and done so getting him there is solid.  

Amegadjie is a solid depth tackle.  0 sacks the last two years and only 1 in his career as a freshman are insane but he has only had 861 career passing snaps and limited this year to 129, so not sure if he has been hurt or something. Being a small school kid makes me a little nervous but Sorsdal is doing ok with a bigger gap in competition and I think KA would be solid value around here with high upside.  

@Just Want A Title mentioned wanting one of the top CBs available and I actually think you got one of them.  I think if we want Tampa we will have to use that late first or in this scenario, he might be available at 48 but I doubt it.  So again, getting him in the third here is solid. 

The last two picks I don't know a ton about either but would be ok with the positions.  

Honestly with the UDFA, Cross, Turner and Murphy I think will all be 3rd rounders or better.  I like Cross and Turner more for the Cominsky role than Jackson with higher pressure and sack rates. Murphy with an insane 21% pressure rate at 260 lbs would fill the Harris/Okwara role ideally.  

I just did a mock on PFN netting Quinyon Mitchell at 27, Sweat in rd 2, Sedrick Van Pran and Howard Cross in round 3.  I can only do three rounds but I feel like that is much more accurate for where we would need to take guys. Add in a Jasheen Davis later for the Harris role but also I think we should bulk Houston a little and just play him there full time. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Based on who and where you drafted, and the UDFA, I am assuming this was on PFN which I think is very wrong on their rankings.  So overall I think you added great talent, just doubt it will be there when the draft rolls around.  

I don't mind the move down depending on who is available but not a big fan of Legette there. He scares me in being a one year wonder guy.  I prefer early picks to have proven they are good over two or three years.  

Landon Jackson I don't know much about and don't see him on your spreadsheet.  He has great size and is getting sacks but his pressure rate seems awfully low (4.5% of pass rush snaps). So again I don't think I would take him there.   

Sweat I love and he fits the bill next to McNeil.  He likely will be a 2nd rounder, maybe a first after all is said and done so getting him there is solid.  

Amegadjie is a solid depth tackle.  0 sacks the last two years and only 1 in his career as a freshman are insane but he has only had 861 career passing snaps and limited this year to 129, so not sure if he has been hurt or something. Being a small school kid makes me a little nervous but Sorsdal is doing ok with a bigger gap in competition and I think KA would be solid value around here with high upside.  

@Just Want A Title mentioned wanting one of the top CBs available and I actually think you got one of them.  I think if we want Tampa we will have to use that late first or in this scenario, he might be available at 48 but I doubt it.  So again, getting him in the third here is solid. 

The last two picks I don't know a ton about either but would be ok with the positions.  

Honestly with the UDFA, Cross, Turner and Murphy I think will all be 3rd rounders or better.  I like Cross and Turner more for the Cominsky role than Jackson with higher pressure and sack rates. Murphy with an insane 21% pressure rate at 260 lbs would fill the Harris/Okwara role ideally.  

I just did a mock on PFN netting Quinyon Mitchell at 27, Sweat in rd 2, Sedrick Van Pran and Howard Cross in round 3.  I can only do three rounds but I feel like that is much more accurate for where we would need to take guys. Add in a Jasheen Davis later for the Harris role but also I think we should bulk Houston a little and just play him there full time. 

 

It was on PFN. I don't know if I'd say the rankings are "wrong" as they have someone like Quinyon ranked much higher than I've seen on PFF (I haven't tried FanSpeak so far). There is that site "mock draft database" that could be a viable option based on consensus rankings. It's still too early and we could see guys go up and down draft boards over the next little while 

I would probably have taken Quinyon as my first pick if he made it there. However, he was taken earlier after the trade down. 

I can understand the concerns about Legette. However, he's only had Rattler these past two seasons. He had a carousel of future HOFers in Luke Doty, Jason Brown and Zeb Noland in 2021. 

I WOULD want to understand what happened to Legette and Antwane Wells in 2022 and 2023. They nearly swapped numbers.

  • Wells (2022): 68 receptions for 928 yards, 6 TD's (13.6 y/rec)
  • Legette (2023): 71 receptions for 1255 yards, 7 TD's (17.7 y/rec)

Wells has actually entered the transfer portal, so that makes things interesting. 

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1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

It was on PFN. I don't know if I'd say the rankings are "wrong" as they have someone like Quinyon ranked much higher than I've seen on PFF (I haven't tried FanSpeak so far). There is that site "mock draft database" that could be a viable option based on consensus rankings. It's still too early and we could see guys go up and down draft boards over the next little while 

I would probably have taken Quinyon as my first pick if he made it there. However, he was taken earlier after the trade down. 

I can understand the concerns about Legette. However, he's only had Rattler these past two seasons. He had a carousel of future HOFers in Luke Doty, Jason Brown and Zeb Noland in 2021. 

I WOULD want to understand what happened to Legette and Antwane Wells in 2022 and 2023. They nearly swapped numbers.

  • Wells (2022): 68 receptions for 928 yards, 6 TD's (13.6 y/rec)
  • Legette (2023): 71 receptions for 1255 yards, 7 TD's (17.7 y/rec)

Wells has actually entered the transfer portal, so that makes things interesting. 

PFF has Quinyon at 46 right now.  He has steadily been moving up their board.  And although they may not all be wrong, I feel like PFN really has missed on a few guys like they did at this time last year with Witherspoon, Campbell, Karl Brooks etc. PFN also has Latu like 32nd and often available at our 1st and I would not pass on him if he is there. Overall, its too early and we can only work with the tools we have, I just feel like some of it like that UDFA list are wishful thinking.  If Cross, Turner and Murphy are all available in the 7th, we better trade some future late picks to secure them as I think they outplay their draft slot, like Brooks is doing this year.  Also I still haven't seen much else on Kamal Hadden, he isn't even on PFN's list of draftable players but his QBR against would make me draft him in the mid rounds for sure.  

As for Legette, he had Rattler last year and had 18 catches for 167 yards in 13 games played.  Someone with his skill set should have forced being looked at if he was that great.  Feels like he is putting up numbers on a bad team but will struggle when not the guy.  Guys like him make me nervous (Jamo did for similar reasons but at least he had multipl1st round picks ahead of him). He feels like this years Quentin Johnston or Treylon Burks to me. 

Overall between WR not being a huge need and my concerns with Legette, I would pass for a DL, OL, or DB given there are plenty worthy in that area. 

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I just did one on PFN as well and used your offseason up to that point although I would not sign Watts. 

DRAFT

Trade #27 to San Francisco for #30 and #93

#30 Jared Verse,  DE, Florida St: Will take over for Harris/Okwara opposite Hutch on rush downs.   

#58 Leonard Taylor, DT, Miami: He plays a similar role to McNeil but will allow him to stay fresh and they can play together on pass rush downs.  Will create a nice trio of DTs with the next pick.

#84 T'Vondre Sweat, NT, Texas: A monster of a man who is listed anywhere between 340 - 362 lbs. Sweat is going to command double teams playing next to McNeill/Taylor. He's going to eliminate space up the middle and forcing plays to the edges. 

#89 Christian Hayes, OG, UCONN: Guard is a need next year for sure.  Sorsdal may step up but depth and potential starters are needed to keep the line a strength. 

#93 Josh Newton, CB, TCU: Tampa has really good size at 6'1, 198 lbs and grades out well in man and zone. He's not terrible against the run (65.8). We are in a spot where he can get some snaps in but the Lions aren't relying on him to be an immediate contributor. 

#155 Brenden Rice, WR USC: Rice is a highly graded WR at USC and has kick return abilities. Also being the son of Jerry means there are genes showing he could be decent.  He is 6'3", 210 lbs and solid speed/deep threat ability shown by his 17+ ypc this year.  

#186 Javon Foster, OT Mizzou: Foster will back up Decker and has solid upside.  Was very good for Mizzou this year and should help replace Skipper on the roster. 

#217 Gabriel Murphy, DE, UCLA: Losing Harris and Okwara we will need a couple bodies in this role.  Verse and Murphy should be able to help Hutch out with Murphy having a 21% pressure rate which has been relatively consistent in his time at UCLA. 

UDFA
Howard Cross, DT/DE, Notre Dame
Kamal Hadden, CB, Tennessee

 

DEPTH CHART (POST-DRAFT)

OFFENSE

QB: Goff, Hooker, Bridgewater

RB: Montgomery, Gibbs, Reynolds

LT: Decker, Foster

LG: Jackson, Awosika

OC: Ragnow, Brown

RG: Glasgow, Hayes

RT: Sewell, Sorsdal

LWR: Reynolds, Rice, Green

SWR: St. Brown, Raymond

RWR: Williams, Peoples-Jones

TE: LaPorta, Wright, Mitchell

 

DEFENSE

EDGE: Verse, Murphy

DE: Hutchinson, Paschal,

DT: McNeill, Taylor

NT: Sweat, Jones, Martin,

DE: Epenesa, Cominsky, Cross

WLB: Anzalone, Campbell, Reeves-Maybin

MLB: Barnes, Rodriguez, Nowaske

LCB: Sutton, Newton, Hadden

SCB: Branch, Murphy-Bunting

RCB: Moseley, Jacobs, Dorsey

FS: Walker, Gardner-Johnson

SS: Joseph, Melifonwu

 

I added another rush edge line in the depth chart as Harris/Okwara play a different role than either Cominsky or Hutch.  Paschal is more of the Hutch mold but on rush downs, Verse/Murphy would be in.  Cominsky would also work as a backup to McNeil. Taylor is behind McNeil but they could play together and rotate between the main 3 DTs and Cominsky there.  Epenesa may not be overly needed either with adding Verse and Murphy as they would be cheaper but having a vet there would be solid so I kept him.  That would be 12 DL though so I am guessing someone would go (Epenesa, Cominsky, Jones). Given Cross likely will be a clone of Cominsky, I would say take the cheaper one and move on from Cominsky.  

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15 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

#30 Jared Verse,  DE, Florida St: Will take over for Harris/Okwara opposite Hutch on rush downs. 

Verse could either go really high as one of the first two or three edges or towards the bottom of round 1 like Jermaine Johnson did. He wasn't available when I did it but I'd definitely lean in this direction if a guy like that was there. 

16 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

#58 Leonard Taylor, DT, Miami: He plays a similar role to McNeil but will allow him to stay fresh and they can play together on pass rush downs.  Will create a nice trio of DTs with the next pick.

My only issue with this selection is that you're taking someone who would be taking backup snaps with quite a bit of draft capital. If the team wanted to play Alim less to improve his effectiveness, then I could see why this move would be made. 

 

19 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

#84 T'Vondre Sweat, NT, Texas: A monster of a man who is listed anywhere between 340 - 362 lbs. Sweat is going to command double teams playing next to McNeill/Taylor. He's going to eliminate space up the middle and forcing plays to the edges. 

I genuinely like this player a lot. I just have a hard time seeing us actually take him after drafting Brodric Martin last year (and trading up in order to get him). However, it shouldn't stop us from adding to the position and upgrading our interior DL. 

20 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

#89 Christian Hayes, OG, UCONN: Guard is a need next year for sure.  Sorsdal may step up but depth and potential starters are needed to keep the line a strength. 

Despite what you might think based on his size, Haynes has not graded out very well running the gap scheme. He's a player that I had my eye on before but this is why I've pivoted towards other guys. 

22 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

#93 Josh Newton, CB, TCU: Tampa has really good size at 6'1, 198 lbs and grades out well in man and zone. He's not terrible against the run (65.8). We are in a spot where he can get some snaps in but the Lions aren't relying on him to be an immediate contributor. 

I can't complain about adding to the secondary. I think we're on the same page in that, IF the Lions were to address the secondary in a similar way that I'm proposing (bring back Mosely and CJGJ; bring back Jacobs and sign a medium level UFA) that we wouldn't need to/be likely to take CB early. Depending on who becomes available, health/injury (Moseley is a big question mark here) we still could take someone much earlier. 

27 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

#155 Brenden Rice, WR USC: Rice is a highly graded WR at USC and has kick return abilities. Also being the son of Jerry means there are genes showing he could be decent.  He is 6'3", 210 lbs and solid speed/deep threat ability shown by his 17+ ypc this year.  

I like the player and the position. We'd probably get Jerry coming around a little bit which wouldn't hurt. 

28 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

#186 Javon Foster, OT Mizzou: Foster will back up Decker and has solid upside.  Was very good for Mizzou this year and should help replace Skipper on the roster. 

I like this overall. I do think we could add someone earlier to develop and eventually replace Decker but I do think we need to add more quality depth on the OL. Goff really struggles with pressure. 

29 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

#217 Gabriel Murphy, DE, UCLA: Losing Harris and Okwara we will need a couple bodies in this role.  Verse and Murphy should be able to help Hutch out with Murphy having a 21% pressure rate which has been relatively consistent in his time at UCLA. 

This wouldn't hurt us at all. I like the player/position.

30 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Howard Cross, DT/DE, Notre Dame
Kamal Hadden, CB, Tennessee

I really like Cross as well. I'm hoping that he can shift outside and isn't just an undersized DT.

I read a bit on Hadden that wasn't great, maybe principally on his health? I'll have to see if I can find it again.

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Big Gains for Landon Jackson

No Razorback has had a more impressive body overhaul than team captain Landon Jackson, the 6’7″ defensive end who gained over 45 pounds in the offseason in Sowders’ program. The right nutrition and weight regimen turned him from an above average defensive end into someone who could potentially turn into an all-SEC lineman, and get himself drafted early in the 2024 NFL Draft.

For at least one game, he realized that vast potential, stealing a Crimson Tide freshman’s milk money and wrecking Alabama’s offensive line to the tune of 3.5 sacks, winning SEC co-defensive player of the week honors.

“I was ecstatic for him,” Hogs defensive lineman Eric Gregory said on Tuesday. “Just seeing him out there making plays, like you said, he does it at practice a lot. And to see him transfer it to the game and just knowing he can do it. It was big. The whole D-line, the whole defense was happy for him.”

No Razorback defensive end has gone in first round of since Jamaal Anderson in 2006, but Jackson is trending in that direction after Saturday. In the below video provided by Hog Sports’ Matt Hart, NFL Draft guru Mel Kiper says that Jackson has rocketed past Florida State’s Jared Verse and Ohio State’s J.T. Tuimoloau to No. 1 among defensive ends on his next ESPN mock draft board (the printed update will publish on Friday):

“I feel like I’ve finally fully transferred what I’ve worked in practice every day to the game. I think it paid off big time,” Jackson said on Tuesday, referring to the Alabama game. “I use a lot of hands and really just had my eyes on what I was attacking.”

 

@Sllim Pickens look at this article and the photo in the link. 

https://www.bestofarkansassports.com/arkansas-football-landon-jackson-nfl-draft-buzzkill-offseason/

Quote

 

Arkansas DL Landon Jackson broke out in his second season in Fayetteville and third collegiate campaign overall. However, while he could capitalize on his stock now, a return to college now appears to be on the board for him.

According to Matt Zenitz, Jackson is now considering a return to Arkansas as an option. While he could strike now for the 2024 NFL Draft, a senior season with the ‘Hogs to develop more could make him an even higher selection.

 

https://www.on3.com/college/arkansas-razorbacks/news/report-arkansas-dl-landon-jackson-leaning-toward-returning-opting-out-of-nfl-draft/

Ruh-Roh

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On 12/1/2023 at 2:20 PM, Karnage84 said:

NIL money talks. When you have many kids making more money than QB- Purdy per year there is a problem

 

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5 hours ago, detfan782004 said:

NIL money talks. When you have many kids making more money than QB- Purdy per year there is a problem

 

It's also draft stock. He's a late 1st to 2nd. If he comes back he's probably a top 5 edge and surefire 1st rounder if he stays on this trajectory 

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On 12/3/2023 at 10:47 AM, detfan782004 said:

NIL money talks. When you have many kids making more money than QB- Purdy per year there is a problem

 

I don't think this is a reason anyone is staying in college, again, unless they don't believe in themselves to make it.  Maybe guys who are 5th-7th round projections but not anyone in the first couple of rounds.  Purdy may not be making much because of his draft spot, but he is one year away from signing a 200+M deal.  Getting to that contract is more valuable than staying in college for $1M.  

Jackson could be trying to go back because he can make a few hundred thousand while improving his draft stock and getting into the mid first round which is a 8-10M difference on their first deal but still a huge risk.  But getting to his second contract is still more valuable than staying in college another year, even if he is John Cominsky level and resigns for 3M a year instead of a big edge contract.  

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  LT LG OC RG RT          
  Decker Jackson Ragnow Glasgow Sewell   OL LEFT RIGHT IOL
OVR 74.8 59.3 84.2 74.2 90.0   76.5 67.1 82.1 72.6
RBLK 66.1 59.6 85.3 77.7 91.4   76.0 62.9 84.6 74.2
PBLK 80.5 56.8 74.5 58.0 80.4   70.0 68.7 69.2 63.1
                     
SNAPS 405 238 423 420 481          
PRESS 24 16 12 26 12   90 40 38 54
HUR 17 10 9 19 7   62 27 26 38
HIT 4 5 3 6 4   22 9 10 14
SACK 3 1 0 1 1   6 4 2 2
                     
PRESS 5.9% 6.7% 2.8% 6.2% 2.5%          
HUR 4.2% 4.2% 2.1% 4.5% 1.5%          
HIT 1.0% 2.1% 0.7% 1.4% 0.8%          
SACK 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%          
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Just now, Karnage84 said:
  LT LG OC RG RT          
  Decker Jackson Ragnow Glasgow Sewell   OL LEFT RIGHT IOL
OVR 74.8 59.3 84.2 74.2 90.0   76.5 67.1 82.1 72.6
RBLK 66.1 59.6 85.3 77.7 91.4   76.0 62.9 84.6 74.2
PBLK 80.5 56.8 74.5 58.0 80.4   70.0 68.7 69.2 63.1
                     
SNAPS 405 238 423 420 481          
PRESS 24 16 12 26 12   90 40 38 54
HUR 17 10 9 19 7   62 27 26 38
HIT 4 5 3 6 4   22 9 10 14
SACK 3 1 0 1 1   6 4 2 2
                     
PRESS 5.9% 6.7% 2.8% 6.2% 2.5%          
HUR 4.2% 4.2% 2.1% 4.5% 1.5%          
HIT 1.0% 2.1% 0.7% 1.4% 0.8%          
SACK 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%          

This is our starting OL YTD. The decline of Taylor Decker is actually becoming much more evident and is likely going to lead to us having to address it earlier than expected. 

  • PRESSURES: Decker is 2nd worst on the team  allowing for 24 pressures (Graham Glasgow has 26)
  • HURRIES: 17 of those pressures are hurries. Also second to Graham Glasgow (19)
  • HITS: 4 of those pressures were hits. He is tied for 3rd with Sorsdal and Awosika. Glasgow has 6 and Jackson has 5
  • SACKS: This is where the rubber hits the road. The Lions have allowed for 10 sacks. Decker has allowed for 3 of them. Seven other players have allowed for 1 sack (Craig Reynolds, Awosika, Vaitai, Sorsdal, J Jackson, Graham Glasgow, Penei Sewell)

Since week 10 (LA Chargers), Decker has been on quite the decline

10 (LAC): 74.8 OVR; 76.9 RBLK; 64.0 PBLK > 5 Pressures; 1 Hit; 0 Sacks

11 (CHI): 69.0 OVR; 57.9 RBLK; 77.8 PBLK > 3 Pressures; 0 Hits; 0 Sacks

12 (GB): 66.0 OVR; 54.7 RBLK; 74.3 PBLK > 2 Pressures; 0 Hits; 1 Sack

13 (NO): 55.0 OVR; 51.0 RBLK; 73.6 PBLK > 1 Pressure; 1 Hit; 0 Sack

 

 

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16 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

Either Jackson or Arkansas would buy an insurance policy to cover off this difference should something tragic happen. 

The insurance policies are tough to get paid out on and typically only are for major injury that end a players career.  

But the 8-10M I mean is the difference between the early/mid second round pick he likely is now compared to a top 10 pick next year.  So he couldn't insure for that difference, he would have to work to show he is worth that high of a selection, which is a huge risk. 

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