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A 2024 OFF-SEASON PROJECTION (POST NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME)


Karnage84

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1 hour ago, General Tso said:

Do you guys think Tracy Walker has any trade value? Could see him being moved to a team that needs a safety so he gets a starter role.

What hurts is his contract. Do we want to eat over $7 million to trade him to gain $5 million in capspace? 

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3 minutes ago, Louis Friend said:

What hurts is his contract. Do we want to eat over $7 million to trade him to gain $5 million in capspace? 

It's a good question. I also think our management is one of those "do right by the player" and give him an opportunity somewhere.

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3 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

What hurts is his contract. Do we want to eat over $7 million to trade him to gain $5 million in capspace? 

We reworked Vaitai's contract last off-season rather than cut him because he knew he wouldn't get that money elsewhere.

If we cut him pre-June 1 we will save $5,500 in cap space, while he will miss out on $7.95m in salary. He's not going to get that anywhere else. So how much would a backup S get in the open market? If we renegotiated his contract and replaced it with a 2 year for $7m, with $4m of that signing bonus and $1.5m in 2024 salary, he would walk away with $5.5m in new cash this year and our cap savings would be $5m. That would be almost the same savings as if we cut him but we would still have a decent backup on the roster. He would get more money than he would probably get elsewhere and he wouldn't have to move.

I know the money won't be the same as what I've just described but it would be close and seems like the best option.

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A quick mock now that we're in the Divisional round of the playoffs. Used the PFF simulator. 

Pick #30 - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo: Cam Sutton is a CB2 and we desperately need to add talent to this group. Mitchell is already rising up draft boards and currently has an ADP in the early 2nd round. I suspect he's going to be a 1st rounder once the combine comes around

Pick #62 - Jackson Powers-Johnson, OC, Oregon: Frank Ragnow has played at an exceptional level but he has battled injuries. JPJ has played on multiple positions along the line and could start at OG if Ragnow does come back. 

Pick #73 - Marshawn Kneeland, Edge, Western Michigan: Kneeland is 6'3, 275 lbs. He's stout against the run but he can also be a complimentary pass-rusher with a 12.8% pressure rate and sack rate of 2.1%. 

Pick #93 - McKinnley Jackson, NT, Mississippi State: The Lions need to add talent and depth on the interior DL. Jackson fits the profile of what the Lions have generally had opposite of McNeil. 

Pick #167 - Ben Sinnott, TE, Kansas State: LaPorta has been incredible breaking rookie records. Sinnott adds another weapon at the position who is also a solid blocker. This allows the Lions to run more 12 personnel sets and opens up the play-action game even further

Pick #208 - Kitan Oladapo, S, Oregon State: A solid strong safety type. He's solid against the run and also has some ball skills. Walker is arguably a key target to be a cut candidate. The Lions safety group has some talented players who have flashed (Branch, Joseh and Iffy) along with a proven veteran (CJGJ) but its not settled. KO will start on ST and make his way up. 

Pick #251 - Carson Steele, RB, UCLA: At 6'1 and 225 lbs, Steele is a monster. He's a developmental player that could become RB3 for us after spending some time on the PS

 

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27 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

A quick mock now that we're in the Divisional round of the playoffs. Used the PFF simulator. 

Pick #30 - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo: Cam Sutton is a CB2 and we desperately need to add talent to this group. Mitchell is already rising up draft boards and currently has an ADP in the early 2nd round. I suspect he's going to be a 1st rounder once the combine comes around

Pick #62 - Jackson Powers-Johnson, OC, Oregon: Frank Ragnow has played at an exceptional level but he has battled injuries. JPJ has played on multiple positions along the line and could start at OG if Ragnow does come back. 

Pick #73 - Marshawn Kneeland, Edge, Western Michigan: Kneeland is 6'3, 275 lbs. He's stout against the run but he can also be a complimentary pass-rusher with a 12.8% pressure rate and sack rate of 2.1%. 

Pick #93 - McKinnley Jackson, NT, Mississippi State: The Lions need to add talent and depth on the interior DL. Jackson fits the profile of what the Lions have generally had opposite of McNeil. 

Pick #167 - Ben Sinnott, TE, Kansas State: LaPorta has been incredible breaking rookie records. Sinnott adds another weapon at the position who is also a solid blocker. This allows the Lions to run more 12 personnel sets and opens up the play-action game even further

Pick #208 - Kitan Oladapo, S, Oregon State: A solid strong safety type. He's solid against the run and also has some ball skills. Walker is arguably a key target to be a cut candidate. The Lions safety group has some talented players who have flashed (Branch, Joseh and Iffy) along with a proven veteran (CJGJ) but its not settled. KO will start on ST and make his way up. 

Pick #251 - Carson Steele, RB, UCLA: At 6'1 and 225 lbs, Steele is a monster. He's a developmental player that could become RB3 for us after spending some time on the PS

 

I am starting to see Quinyon Mitchell more often in late Round 1 in the media Mock Drafts.  He has all the physical tools you could want for a CB1.  I think he has a Senior Bowl invitation.  If he plays well there, that projection will probably be accurate.  If he has trouble adjusting to the step up in talent level he will drop based on how he looks.  I would be thrilled if Jackson Powers-Johnson was available at #62 and would hope the Lions run to the podium with that pick.  If those were our first two picks we would be nailing the draft right from the outset.

I like the rest of the players.  McKinnley Jackson seems like he could be one of those players who is better as an NFL player than he was in college.  Carson Steele seems like the type of RB that could really punish a defense.  Especially when we have cold-weather games in Chicago and Green Bay

 

I am probably going to rock the boat a bit when I say that I think the Lions might actively seek an upgrade to Kerby Joseph in the off-season.  He has been really inconsistent in just about every aspect of his game.  He doesn't play like the type of player the Lions seem to have on their roster.  He has been sticking out in ways that aren't good.  

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23 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

I am starting to see Quinyon Mitchell more often in late Round 1 in the media Mock Drafts.

Daniel Jeremiah has him at pick #17 (Jacksonville) in his round 1 mock 1.0. 

He has us taking Nate Wiggins (CB from Clemson) at pick #30. 

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1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

Daniel Jeremiah has him at pick #17 (Jacksonville) in his round 1 mock 1.0. 

He has us taking Nate Wiggins (CB from Clemson) at pick #30. 

It is hard for me to trust most draft pundits but Daniel Jeremiah is usually pretty solid.  Still, the step up from Toledo to the NFL is pretty big.  Jacksonville likes taking players with great measurables but that still seems like a pretty big jump.  I suppose we will know more for sure after the Senior Bowl and Combine.  He seems solidly in the 2nd round in the couple of prospect rankings I checked.  It will be interesting to see how much his draft stock changes.

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4 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

It is hard for me to trust most draft pundits but Daniel Jeremiah is usually pretty solid.  Still, the step up from Toledo to the NFL is pretty big.  Jacksonville likes taking players with great measurables but that still seems like a pretty big jump.  I suppose we will know more for sure after the Senior Bowl and Combine.  He seems solidly in the 2nd round in the couple of prospect rankings I checked.  It will be interesting to see how much his draft stock changes.

People make that jump every year. Sauce Gardner went from Cinci to DROY.  
 

Mitchell may be at a smaller school but he has been an absolute lockdown CB for two and a half years and has elite measurables.  I don’t think level of comp is an issue. 

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Sauce Gardner is an outlier when it comes to rookie CBs in the NFL.  Cinncinnti had a couple of games against big opponents his last two years.  As I recall, they had two Bowl games-one against UGA and one against Alabama along with a regular-season game against Notre Dame.  I don't think Quinyon Mitchell has played in any games with opponents on that level.  The fact that he has been dominant in the MAC is good.  Would he have been as dominant if he were playing in the SEC?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  

It isn't just WR talent that makes the difference.  There aren't a lot of QBs in the MAC that have NFL arm-talent.  The mental part of playing CB in the NFL is going to be a big adjustment also.  Like I said, the Senior Bowl will be important for him.  He needs to show he can complete against high-level talent.  If he doesn't show that, he risk becoming viewed as a CB who is going to require some time to develop or worse yet, being viewed as a CB with a high boom-or-bust potential.

 

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5 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

Sauce Gardner is an outlier when it comes to rookie CBs in the NFL.  Cinncinnti had a couple of games against big opponents his last two years.  As I recall, they had two Bowl games-one against UGA and one against Alabama along with a regular-season game against Notre Dame.  I don't think Quinyon Mitchell has played in any games with opponents on that level.  The fact that he has been dominant in the MAC is good.  Would he have been as dominant if he were playing in the SEC?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  

It isn't just WR talent that makes the difference.  There aren't a lot of QBs in the MAC that have NFL arm-talent.  The mental part of playing CB in the NFL is going to be a big adjustment also.  Like I said, the Senior Bowl will be important for him.  He needs to show he can complete against high-level talent.  If he doesn't show that, he risk becoming viewed as a CB who is going to require some time to develop or worse yet, being viewed as a CB with a high boom-or-bust potential.

 

Mitchell played against Ohio St with MHJ and Stroud in 2022.  OSU killed them and he did allow a TD to MHJ but not sure what his overall grade was for that game. Against UGA, Cinci gave up 395 yards to the backup QB. When they played ND, they also played a backup QB who hasn’t played since then. There are zero ND wide outs from that team in the NFL. 
 

In 2021 they played Notre Dame in the regular season and he had two fumble recoveries and Toledo almost upset them. 
 

In 2022 he played Sky Moore at WMU and held him without a catch and had an INT. Moore has floundered in the NFL but was a second round pick for a reason. 

Last year Soddy Sow was drafted out of EMU and was a top 10 OG in the league per PFF. Karl Brooks was drafted out of Bowling Green and was an honorable mention all rookie team per PFF. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Mitchell played against Ohio St with MHJ and Stroud in 2022.  OSU killed them and he did allow a TD to MHJ but not sure what his overall grade was for that game. Against UGA, Cinci gave up 395 yards to the backup QB. When they played ND, they also played a backup QB who hasn’t played since then. There are zero ND wide outs from that team in the NFL. 
 

In 2021 they played Notre Dame in the regular season and he had two fumble recoveries and Toledo almost upset them. 
 

In 2022 he played Sky Moore at WMU and held him without a catch and had an INT. Moore has floundered in the NFL but was a second round pick for a reason. 

Last year Soddy Sow was drafted out of EMU and was a top 10 OG in the league per PFF. Karl Brooks was drafted out of Bowling Green and was an honorable mention all rookie team per PFF. 
 

 

Don't get me wrong.  He has tremendous tools.  I don't know if "raw" is the right word to describe him but he isn't as polished/battle-tested as Patrick Surtain II(taken #9) or Trent McDuffie (taken #21).  Deonte Banks who came out of Maryland, to whom his measurable are probably comparable) was taken at #24.   

I just think evaluators need to get a look at him at the Senior Bowl to get a good handle on what is draft floor should be.  A player like Quinyon Mitchell can lean on their physical tools and be dominant in the MAC.  Any kind of decent performance during Senior Bowl practices probably puts him in Round 1, 24-32.  He could go higher if he blows the doors off but selecting him higher than that runs the risk of over drafting a player based on their physical tools.

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1 hour ago, Just Want A Title said:

Don't get me wrong.  He has tremendous tools.  I don't know if "raw" is the right word to describe him but he isn't as polished/battle-tested as Patrick Surtain II(taken #9) or Trent McDuffie (taken #21).  Deonte Banks who came out of Maryland, to whom his measurable are probably comparable) was taken at #24.   

I just think evaluators need to get a look at him at the Senior Bowl to get a good handle on what is draft floor should be.  A player like Quinyon Mitchell can lean on their physical tools and be dominant in the MAC.  Any kind of decent performance during Senior Bowl practices probably puts him in Round 1, 24-32.  He could go higher if he blows the doors off but selecting him higher than that runs the risk of over drafting a player based on their physical tools.

Sure, all players will be evaluated but numbers like his for the number of years he has done it shows it’s legit.  He has allowed passer ratings of 34.5 in 22 (including that game against OSU) and 51.7 this year.  That 51.7 would be best in the NFL this year.  
 

I called it a couple months ago that he would make the Witherspoon type rise and it’s already started.  My guess is we will have no chance at him without a trade up but if he is there I’d love him to be the pick. 

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