The case for not moving on from Tomlin....this year.

[warfelg]

Before all the har har har - this has little to do with defending Tomlin.

Rather, this is going to be a bad offseason to look for a coach.  Many insiders are talking about anywhere from 7-10 HC open jobs.  So far LVR and Car are open jobs.

There's the potential for NYJ, NE, LAC, Wash, Chi, NO joining them.  I think Cinci is safe but Cleve might be looking.  And an outside chance NYG move on too.

And if those things happen we would be down the list in desirability of jobs.

I believe if they came open Chicago, New England, LAC, Cleve would be at the tops of the list because of the QB situations.  I feel like NO and Car would be up there because of how weak the division is.  Jets and Giants are in the odd spot of some good but some bad stuff.  Washington and Vegas have promising young guys at QB but they aren't stars by any means.

And then there's us.  I think we would slot in that NYJ/NYG area with maybe a little edge because of the Rooney's history of coaching decisions.  But on the flip side I wouldn't expect them to pay super high compared to the other teams.

I believe we would be better off waiting for 2024 to be in the coaching market where the competition would be far less and much easier to get someone promising.

[43M]

Oddly enough, I personally dont care if we get rid of Tomlin anytime soon.   I believe he is an issue, and even a major issue, but the biggest issue with this team is one we cant easily get rid of.   

That issues name is Art II.

I dont trust his ability to find someone better than Tomlin, and while eventually it will likely happen, I just don't see it going particularly well.   As middling as I believe Tomlin is, the reality is, its hard to find a truly good NFL coach, and while I don't think Tomlin is "good", I dont necessarily think he is "bad" either.   Just very....meh.

One point Id make to counter your "alot of competition for head coaches" point is, we are ALOT more appealing than most of those other jobs for numerous reasons, and I do believe many coaches would take somewhat less to coach here over teams like Chicago, Cleveland, Cincy, NO and CERTAINLY Washington and LA Chargers.

Still, Id probably stick with Tomlin in 24 unless the Bears were to offer us their 2024 first and second and 2025 1st.     They could still get their QBotF with the Carolina pick and get a proven coach they believe can change their culture.

That wont happen, but one can dream.   

[3rivers]

my trade should be with the bears , 43M I stand corrected . 

what a weekend for the AFC, seemed like most of the playoff teams lost. Colts are creeping up and playing good despite not having their best player. 

As for not many good coaches out there, could the real problem  be the way players are in todays culture?  

[warfelg]

6 hours ago, 43M said:

One point Id make to counter your "alot of competition for head coaches" point is, we are ALOT more appealing than most of those other jobs for numerous reasons, and I do believe many coaches would take somewhat less to coach here over teams like Chicago, Cleveland, Cincy, NO and CERTAINLY Washington and LA Chargers.

Chicago would be tough because the ability to pick a QB.

If Cincy and LAC were open coaches would want to go there over us because of having franchise QB's.

NO/Cleveland I would put on the same level as us.

And as a Sixers fan - Josh Harris is not afraid to throw money around and would not make that amount "somewhat less".

6 hours ago, 43M said:

That issues name is Art II.

I dont trust his ability to find someone better than Tomlin, and while eventually it will likely happen, I just don't see it going particularly well. 

I just don't trust him to find someone as good as Tomlin, let alone better.  I mean it all depends on how you fall on these rumors, but if you believe Canada was something Art pushed for, and the lack of pay for assistants is because of being cheap, I have little faith.

[3rivers]

I guess we are stuck with this then.    If  AR2 is the issue, then it might be years before the team returns to a championship level.  I always thought the HC and Khan+ Weidl would be the one that have the most to do with the roster.   This could be a lost cause,  staying in mediocrity  will be the norm.   Competitive  and above .500, yet still selling out the stadium whatever it's called these days.   

[warfelg]

10 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

If  AR2 is the issue, then it might be years before the team returns to a championship level.

I mean, this team went like that for 2 decades from the 80’s-90’s. 

11 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

I always thought the HC and Khan+ Weidl would be the one that have the most to do with the roster.   This could be a lost cause,  staying in mediocrity  will be the norm. 

It’s been not even a full year with those two heading up the FO. How about giving it some time rather than saying it’s a lost cause. 

11 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

Competitive  and above .500, yet still selling out the stadium whatever it's called these days. 

So to get back to the top you need to bottom out for at least a year both record and talent wise. Yet I see no one rushing for that outcome. 

It’s almost impossible to be a contending team, stay SB contending, and rebuild while contending. At some point you need to bottom out or risk picks to go get someone that’s a blue chip prospect. 

Fans seem to get very upset when the team is bad, blaming everything but the core issue of mediocre talent across the board, but don’t want to actually be bad. But then you had a FO who was unwilling to make risks and bold moves to get top level talents because of a belief that “you get 7 picks, you need 7 picks.”

[Dcash4]

Personally, I don't put a ton of stock into the idea of "getting a better/worse coach". Coaches are not 1 to 1. Outcomes are not apples to apples. Rating coaching is far more of a fluctuating scale than a set order. If we changes coaches and alternated years winning a playoff game and dropping below .500 -- are we better or worse?

Coaching skills are not a simple score. It's a ton of scores compiled together to make a coach who he is. It's like those scouting spider web charts. Where Tomlin has tremendous grades for being the face of an organization, player buy in and endorsement, and organizational messaging...I think he falls short in schematics against other NFL minds, coaching hires/growth, and player development. 

I think Tomlin is a really good coach -- at what he does.  Personally, I think he is more hands off in the details, development, and discipline that you would expect and while that causes some issues it's the same reason why players love him so much. He is not up their *** and he is more like a father/uncle with expectations you are hopefully up to the task to live up to. But coaching is about molding to players. People learn differently, people are motivated differently, and it's on the coach to match message and vehicle for that message to all his players...not just the ones it works on. 

Again, personally, I just think this might not be the best situation suited to Tomins skill set anymore. I think he needs a veteran team with an established offensive presence (aka...QB) to where his messaging and consistency can take the greatest effect. He came into a heavily veteran lead team and a future HOF QB. I think he would do great on a team like the Chargers who has the QB, some vets on defense, and is in desperate need of a culture change. 

Having said that, it doesn't mean he has to leave the Steelers, but he desperately this off-season need to find the ying to his yang on the staff. More details, better schematics, more discipline, etc. This off-season is crucial for Tomlin to change course in the coaching staff. If he is unwilling or unable to do that, then other decisions need to be made. 

 

[3rivers]

2 minutes ago, warfelg said:

I mean, this team went like that for 2 decades from the 80’s-90’s. 

 1979 season SB then 2005 season, thats quite a drought. They had some years scattered throughout in between where the team was 'close' if that matters, but to stay  around.500 for a duration will be new.  Maybe a few consecutive losing season will help, wait and see 

7 minutes ago, warfelg said:

How about giving it some time rather than saying it’s a lost cause. 

I like the FO we have but it seems like coaching  OC in particular (maybe HC) is holding the team back. Talent isn't the best either, but they are being held back 

9 minutes ago, warfelg said:

It’s almost impossible to be a contending team, stay SB contending, and rebuild while contending. At some point you need to bottom out or risk picks to go get someone that’s a blue chip prospect. 

no doubt there will be years where teams fall off a bit.  BB and the pats were the exception but look now. Wait, we play them this week, should be a thriller  

 

10 minutes ago, warfelg said:

But then you had a FO who was unwilling to make risks and bold moves to get top level talents because of a belief that “you get 7 picks, you need 7 picks.”

I was glad when colbert retired, but it was a few years late .  

 

 

 

[warfelg]

5 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

1979 season SB then 2005 season, thats quite a drought. They had some years scattered throughout in between where the team was 'close' if that matters, but to stay  around.500 for a duration will be new.  Maybe a few consecutive losing season will help, wait and see 

We were around .500 for the 80’s-90’s. 
 

6 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

Talent isn't the best either, but they are being held back 

So which is it. This team isn’t talented enough to be 7-4 or they are talented enough to be 9-2?

7 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

I like the FO we have but it seems like coaching  OC in particular (maybe HC) is holding the team back

Again. Hasn’t even been a year with the FO and year 2 of a rebuild. 

7 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

no doubt there will be years where teams fall off a bit.  BB and the pats were the exception but look now. Wait, we play them this week, should be a thriller  

They were the exception - because of Brady. But they always kept the cap clear enough to sign guys and moved in the draft to get guys when they needed to. 

9 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

I was glad when colbert retired, but it was a few years late .  

And that might be having a bigger impact than anything else. 

[jebrick]

2 minutes ago, warfelg said:

So which is it. This team isn’t talented enough to be 7-4 or they are talented enough to be 9-2?

not talented enough to be 7-4.  They won some games that they should not have (Cleveland and Ravens) but their losses are blowouts.  When the bounces do not go their way they can't generate any offense.

Tomlin ( and Colbert) have kept them competitive when Ben went down.  In comparison, the Colts had 12 years where they drafted and average of 28th but once Manning went down their lack of talent got them 1 win. Bobby Breathard got fired over 3 bad drafts.   Cowher had up and down years but that got him Plaxico and Ben.

Steelers should have sucked it up and played Mason and built a team.  Now they are hanging in limbo hoping a QB falls to them.

[AFF]

I disagree on the level of appeal for the Steelers HC gig…job security, young pieces on offense and star power on defense.

I’ve been of the opinion he needs to go…most don’t agree and that’s fine.

Id go after Lions OC Ben Johnson(I believe I stated that last year or this past offseason)…however he’s gonna get an HC job this offseason most likely.

[jebrick]

Just now, AFF said:

I disagree on the level of appeal for the Steelers HC gig…job security, young pieces on offense and star power on defense.

I’ve been of the opinion he needs to go…most don’t agree and that’s fine.

Id go after Lions OC Ben Johnson(I believe I stated that last year or this past offseason)…however he’s gonna get an HC job this offseason most likely.

not who Art2 hires.  He follows the formula and that is a young DC as head coach

 

[AFF]

1 minute ago, jebrick said:

not talented enough to be 7-4.  They won some games that they should not have (Cleveland and Ravens) but their losses are blowouts.  When the bounces do not go their way they can't generate any offense.

Tomlin ( and Colbert) have kept them competitive when Ben went down.  In comparison, the Colts had 12 years where they drafted and average of 28th but once Manning went down their lack of talent got them 1 win. Bobby Breathard got fired over 3 bad drafts.   Cowher had up and down years but that got him Plaxico and Ben.

Steelers should have sucked it up and played Mason and built a team.  Now they are hanging in limbo hoping a QB falls to them.

It’s why I stated 2 offseasons ago either go all in and try for a Rodgers/Adams stack for a 2-3 stretch run and then embrace cap hell and sucking for 3 years afterwards or just blow it up.

Now, as you said they’re in QB limbo with Watt starting to get up there in age and wasting the rookie deals of Pickens/Najee/Warren/Muth.

[AFF]

1 minute ago, jebrick said:

not who Art2 hires.  He follows the formula and that is a young DC as head coach

 

You’re likely right.

Im more looking at it from a fixing Pickett/mentoring the QB of the future.

[jebrick]

I would look at the Bengals WR coach/ passing coordinator.  Miami WR coach.  SF WR coach.  Those are OCs I would look at.