Striker Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, mikebpackfan said: I would like to know if these analytic numbers that are constantly quoted are based purely on league averages or on the teams that are playing. Was it using the Detroit kicker’s FG percentage outdoors or not? I’m sure just that stat (along with many others specific to the teams actually playing) alter the percentage’s significantly. The 4th Down Bot does not. I would assume others don't factor that in as well. As AI advances I would assume we'll eventually see a bot (that the public can use) can more accurately calculate for that. You would think that most analytics departments for these teams would be trying to develop that as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smidgeon Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 58 minutes ago, Striker said: The 4th Down Bot does not. I would assume others don't factor that in as well. As AI advances I would assume we'll eventually see a bot (that the public can use) can more accurately calculate for that. You would think that most analytics departments for these teams would be trying to develop that as well. I would hope analytics is advanced enough to treat each scenario like EV calculations in poker. It's not just success rate of a scenario but also the resulting gains/loss of field position, # of possession leads, EPA, etc. And to be fair, I expect analytics is there already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 (edited) 23 hours ago, Packerraymond said: Because when you can go up 3 scores, you go up 3 scores. It's just football 101. I didn't trust my kicker is just shifting blame from game management incompetence to roster management incompetence. 1 hour ago, vegas492 said: Yet you don't get it. "It" being the ability to coach the game with a lead and without a lead. Campbell has been going in guns blazing for his entire time. He was the underdog. He was the kneecap biter. And he failed to learn how to coach with a lead. There are things you do when you are an underdog, or behind in games. Then there are things you do when you have the game in hand. He failed to realize that. And? It cost them a SB appearance. He's a feel good story, for sure. But the man needs this off-season to learn how to coach situational football better. I think situationally the decisions to kick were still fine. The closest one was maybe the second one, but if they kick there it also changes how SF plays their last drive (no guarantee they score 7 or 3 quickly, no guarantee they score at all, no guarantee DET scores after, etc). I also don't think it's an absolute to go up 3 scores just because you can. If there are 6 minutes left in the second quarter, you're up by 14, and you have 4th and inches on the 5 you kick a FG to go up three scores do you still take the three? Or even right at the end of the second or the beginning of the third? (if you're late in the fourth you obviously kick since the clock is way in your favor then). Also, lost in all the conversation about momentum and 4th down gambles is the fact that the 49ers clearly made effective adjustments at halftime. The 49ers had 6 second half possessions. 5 came after the first failed fourth down try and they scored three touchdowns pretty quickly (in 1:41, 2:07, 4:30). So even that 17 point buffer early in the third may not have been enough considering how effectively the 49ers were attacking the Lions in the second half. Edited January 30 by Striker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, Smidgeon said: I would hope analytics is advanced enough to treat each scenario like EV calculations in poker. It's not just success rate of a scenario but also the resulting gains/loss of field position, # of possession leads, EPA, etc. And to be fair, I expect analytics is there already. Oh, for sure. But I don't think the currents analytics models, or at least the ones available to the general public, can get to the level of detail that would analyze, for example, the individual kicker in each specific situation (distance, quarter, weather) and apply that to the models. Also, it's funny that you bring up poker because I'd assuming certain folks here are always folding JJ because they lost that "one time" or they want to preserve their stack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LLcheesehead12 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 9 hours ago, Striker said: I think situationally the decisions to kick were still fine. The closest one was maybe the second one, but if they kick there it also changes how SF plays their last drive (no guarantee they score 7 or 3 quickly, no guarantee they score at all, no guarantee DET scores after, etc). I also don't think it's an absolute to go up 3 scores just because you can. If there are 6 minutes left in the second quarter, you're up by 14, and you have 4th and inches on the 5 you kick a FG to go up three scores do you still take the three? Or even right at the end of the second or the beginning of the third? (if you're late in the fourth you obviously kick since the clock is way in your favor then). Also, lost in all the conversation about momentum and 4th down gambles is the fact that the 49ers clearly made effective adjustments at halftime. The 49ers had 6 second half possessions. 5 came after the first failed fourth down try and they scored three touchdowns pretty quickly (in 1:41, 2:07, 4:30). So even that 17 point buffer early in the third may not have been enough considering how effectively the 49ers were attacking the Lions in the second half. And we're assuming the Lions kicker is automatic in making those kicks, and if the playoffs have shown us anything even the best of kickers can end up shanking those things in key situations. In today's league, you kind of have to find that fine medium between being playing it too safe by kicking FGs or punting on 4th and short, and then being too greedy and potentially killing the mo by going for it in those situations. Campbell probably should have been a bit wiser in his decisions, but he also knew he had to play to win, and he definitely came in with that mentality. Maybe I'm just a bit more partial to those decisions because to this day I still think McCarthy was a dodo for passing up those 4th and goals for FGs in Seattle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Quote The Lions signed Badgley off the practice squad in December after waiving previous kicker Riley Patterson. They didn’t ask Badgley to attempt a kick longer than 41 yards in the final four games of the regular season. He made a 54-yarder in the wild-card game against the Rams (indoors) but entered Sunday 13 of 24 in his career (including playoffs) from 45 to 50 yards, including 8 of 16 outdoors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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