Arthur Penske Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, Rainmaker90 said: Just because a call is ‘conservative’, doesn’t mean it’s wrong. Campbell is Austin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isherwood Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, LacyIsGood said: Weird quote He fears Love already. Never expected Campbell to use that kind of loser talk. He’s got imposter syndrome. Needs to seek therapy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Penske Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 38 minutes ago, fattlipp said: Yup, Love needs to learn this trait…… Yes but he also needs to have a defense that will hold up/get a turnover when needed too. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coachbuns Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 hours ago, fattlipp said: Yup, Love needs to learn this trait…… Agree, it wouldn't hurt as those couple scrambles were game changing. That being said, I don't want him turning into a running QB that bails out at the 1st sign of rushing pressure. It's a fine line .. a very fine line. Learning when to and understanding that would indeed be another weapon in Love's arsenal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brat&Beer Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 8 hours ago, Striker said: Not enough of a swing in either to overcome the very large gap in success chance. Obvious right call was 2 FGs. This confirms that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 23 minutes ago, Brat&Beer said: This is 100% what anyone rationally thinking saw last night . Same with the fake punt on Thanksgiving. Campbell is a program builder and a guy who establishes culture. However he lets the culture he's built interfere with game day decisions. Punts and FGs are a part of football for a reason, you and your team dont become a ***** if you use them Dan. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) 10 hours ago, Striker said: So wouldn't that pressure apply to the kicker? Badgley is a career 77 percent kicker from 40 to 49 yards. 45 percent from 48 plus. I cannot find 45 plus for this season, but as of 2021 he was 45 percent-ish or so. Taking the points from 45 and 47+ there is hardly a lock. One could also argue that you also knock down momentum for your own team by deviating from your normal strategy. If your team is going to be that impacted by a negative play, what would they think if their coach suddenly doesn't have faith in them to convert 4th and 3 or less when you attempt those situations at a top 5 rate? Wouldn't that get in their heads too? 10 hours ago, Striker said: You just unwittingly made my point! The success percent differential far outweighs the percentage of winning in either scenario. You can tell it's failed, bogus math because in order to bolster their data, they increase the percentage of winning, by going for it, if both options fail. That percentage, from a pure math standpoint is the same. LOL Unless, they are saying missing a FG gives the opponent more MOMENTUM by a missed FG. In which case, that is unmitigated bull****. What this graph shows is the juice is not worth the squeeze in either scenario to go for it. Thank you! Edited January 29 by Old Guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dubz41 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 59 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: Not enough of a swing in either to overcome the very large gap in success chance. Obvious right call was 2 FGs. This confirms that. Not obvious. If Reynolds catches that ball we don't know what will happen. The decision wasn't bad, the playcall wasn't bad. It was the execution that failed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spilltray Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, Dubz41 said: Not obvious. If Reynolds catches that ball we don't know what will happen. The decision wasn't bad, the playcall wasn't bad. It was the execution that failed. The % of hitting on that play vs hitting the FG is the problem. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 16 minutes ago, Dubz41 said: Not obvious. If Reynolds catches that ball we don't know what will happen. The decision wasn't bad, the playcall wasn't bad. It was the execution that failed. Correct, including the likely scenario that they still had to settle for a FG. Those analytics don't go on to tell you what the odds of getting points after going for it would be. All of those things should go into a situation. The only call there was to take the 3 and go up 3 scores. Reality is players drop passes every game. Kickers also miss FGs. The odds were 16% better to make the FG than get A FIRST DOWN! Just a first down, not a touchdown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 34 minutes ago, Dubz41 said: Not obvious. If Reynolds catches that ball we don't know what will happen. The decision wasn't bad, the playcall wasn't bad. It was the execution that failed. Decision was bad, chance to go from 2 score to 3 score game. If Lions are up 10, I'm all for going for it to make it a 3 score game. Whenever you have an opportunity to increase the amount of scores another team needs to win,/tie you take the opportunity with the best odds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 So now a recommendation of go for it is interpreted as an obvious indicator to not go for it. Fascinating. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On third-and-4 at the 49ers’ 30-yard line, up by 14 with 7:46 remaining in the third quarter, the Lions had a 90 percent chance to win the game, according to ESPN’s win probability model. They handed the ball off to Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was lined up as a running back, for only a 2-yard gain. It was fourth-and-2. The Lions ran on third-and-4 because they knew they’d go for a short fourth down in this area of the field. Next Gen Stats had the decision, on fourth-and-2, as a lean to go: 86.8 percent win probability on a go, 85.8 percent win probability on a kick. So the Lions went. Why not? Their offense dominated for the entire first half, and on this, their first drive of the second half, they were dominating again. You can bemoan the decision all you like—Dan Campbell and the Lions got here because they’re willing to make decisions such as these. You dance with the one who brought you, and it’s the fourth down, the final down, that brought Campbell. Josh Reynolds dropped the pass. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said: On third-and-4 at the 49ers’ 30-yard line, up by 14 with 7:46 remaining in the third quarter, the Lions had a 90 percent chance to win the game, according to ESPN’s win probability model. They handed the ball off to Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was lined up as a running back, for only a 2-yard gain. It was fourth-and-2. The Lions ran on third-and-4 because they knew they’d go for a short fourth down in this area of the field. Next Gen Stats had the decision, on fourth-and-2, as a lean to go: 86.8 percent win probability on a go, 85.8 percent win probability on a kick. So the Lions went. Why not? Their offense dominated for the entire first half, and on this, their first drive of the second half, they were dominating again. You can bemoan the decision all you like—Dan Campbell and the Lions got here because they’re willing to make decisions such as these. You dance with the one who brought you, and it’s the fourth down, the final down, that brought Campbell. Josh Reynolds dropped the pass. Goff also threw an inaccurate pass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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