Will the Ravens ever win the Superbowl with Lamar Jackson?

[AngusMcFife]

3 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

Eh. All Nick Foles really demonstrates is that Nick Foles was able to do it. It does not mean that the same is necessarily true of any QB. It may or may not be true for Lamar as well. Evidence so far has been that that has not happened for Lamar. Any speculation towards the future is just that, speculation. You can ask why can't that be true for Lamar as well, but it's just as valid to ask why it would be. There's really no more reason to point to Foles or Flacco as proof Lamar can do it than there is to point to Rivers or Marino for why he can't.

I have no idea if they make it happen at some point or not. Lamar is great and the Ravens are well run, but it's also just really hard to do in the first place. It's safe to say regardless that Lamar needs to do better in the post season if it's ever going to happen. And I think it's understandable that some see that body of work so far and believe it will continue.

I generally agree and am skeptical of any argument that says "Yes Lamar will win one" or "No Lamar will never win one".

But I do think it is a bit misguided to think Lamar will always be a bad playoff QB based on starting his career 1-3 in the playoffs in his age 21-23 seasons. He was just a babe and still hadn't developed sound throwing technique at that point in his career, and was playing in a Roman offense that limited his growth as a passer.

This was the first year of a more mature Lamar playing in a balanced offense, and he went 1-1 in the playoffs making to the AFC Championship. Pretty good, something to build on. If you look at this sequence:

Year 1: Wild card round 0-1 record
Year 2: Division round 0-1
Year 3: Division round 1-1
Year 4-5: Injured
Year 6: Championship round 1-1

That looks like progress to me.

[Thomas5737]

5 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

I generally agree and am skeptical of any argument that says "Yes Lamar will win one" or "No Lamar will never win one".

But I do think it is a bit misguided to think Lamar will always be a bad playoff QB based on starting his career 1-3 in the playoffs in his age 21-23 seasons. He was just a babe and still hadn't developed sound throwing technique at that point in his career, and was playing in a Roman offense that limited his growth as a passer.

This was the first year of a more mature Lamar playing in a balanced offense, and he went 1-1 in the playoffs making to the AFC Championship. Pretty good, something to build on. If you look at this sequence:

Year 1: Wild card round 0-1 record
Year 2: Division round 0-1
Year 3: Division round 1-1
Year 4-5: Injured
Year 6: Championship round 1-1

That looks like progress to me.

The Houston game was progress.

His ratings per postseason game:

78.8
63.2
74.8
61.5
121.8
75.5

So 5/6 of his games he has been below average as far as a passer. Was Houston progress or just a blip on the radar?

Lamar has never even went 4 out of 5 regular season games with a rating under 80 (close in 2022 but one game was 80.2) in his career. He is 5/6 in the playoffs. Odds are you are playing better teams (Chargers, TitansX2, Bills, Texans, Chiefs) but that's a pretty big drop. It's still not a huge sample size but there does seem to be a trend for whatever reason.

[AngusMcFife]

14 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

The Houston game was progress.

His ratings per postseason game:

78.8
63.2
74.8
61.5
121.8
75.5

So 5/6 of his games he has been below average as far as a passer. Was Houston progress or just a blip on the radar?

Lamar has never even went 4 out of 5 regular season games with a rating under 80 (close in 2022 but one game was 80.2) in his career. He is 5/6 in the playoffs. Odds are you are playing better teams (Chargers, TitansX2, Bills, Texans, Chiefs) but that's a pretty big drop. It's still not a huge sample size but there does seem to be a trend for whatever reason.

He is systematically winning more games and getting further into the postseason the more experience he has.
2018 Wild Card --> 2019 and 2020 Division round --> 2023 Championship round.
Record: 0-1 --> 0-1 --> 1-1 --> 1-1

The third game was a great game, he ran 16 times for 136 yards and 1 TD. Passer rating doesn't account for that. 

Also I would asterisk the 4th game as the game was played in bad wind and rain in Buffalo. Allen had a very low Y/A.

As I stated in my post, if people want to weight playoff games he played in his age 21-23 seasons heavily in their evaluation of Lamar, that's their prerogative. But there aren't many good games played in the playoffs by any QBs that age, and Lamar was admittedly a project when he was draft who was supposed to develop better throwing ability and passing skills over the years. He's definitely done that, and had his first outstanding playoff game vs. Houston this year. 

[Thomas5737]

6 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

He is systematically winning more games and getting further into the postseason the more experience he has.
2018 Wild Card --> 2019 and 2020 Division round --> 2023 Championship round.
Record: 0-1 --> 0-1 --> 1-1 --> 1-1

The third game was a great game, he ran 16 times for 136 yards and 1 TD. Passer rating doesn't account for that. 

Also I would asterisk the 4th game as the game was played in bad wind and rain in Buffalo. Allen had a very low Y/A.

As I stated in my post, if people want to weight playoff games he played in his age 21-23 seasons heavily in their evaluation of Lamar, that's their prerogative. But there aren't many good games played in the playoffs by any QBs that age, and Lamar was admittedly a project when he was draft who was supposed to develop better throwing ability and passing skills over the years. He's definitely done that, and had his first outstanding playoff game vs. Houston this year. 

Total yards total TD/Turnovers

248 2/2
508 1/3
315 1/1
196 0/1
252 4/0
326 1/2

Still, just one game breaks the mold. He has also never been sacked less than 3 times in a playoff game. He has been sacked 3 or more times in 31 of his 77 starts. So whether it's the competition or what, his TD/Turnover ratio gets worse and he takes more sacks come playoff time. Might be somewhat normal minus the good postseason players, I dunno.

Points for/against:

17      23
12      28
20     13
3       17
34     10
10      17

96 points for (16 ppg)
108 against (18 ppg)

Pretty good when you can hold playoff opponents to 18 ppg. Offense needs to step up.

Edited February 9 by Thomas5737