Will the Ravens ever win the Superbowl with Lamar Jackson?

[Soggust]

7 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

If we pretend playoff performances and passing stats aren't heavily weighed, then sure. His two MVP season he passed for 60 TD. Manning did 55 in one year. Not all MVPs are the same. You could seriously debate that Lamar's 2020 season was better than his 2023 season and he wasn't even a probowl QB. Just a weird year and they insist on not giving it to the best player (McCaffrey).

I don't agree, but I do understand the playoff performance weighting. I just don't think it will matter in the long run.

I do not understand the passing stats being weighted more. 

Why would I care if he runs or throws as long as long as he produces the same? Judging Lamar by passing stats is like calling Kelce an average TE because of his blocking. It's like, yeah, that's traditionally a huge part of the position, but not the way Kelce plays it lol.

And I don't think the down year matters. It's the same thing as 1980s QBs not putting up as big of numbers as today. We compare to the competition. And this year, it was a hard year to play QB. And we decided that Lamar was the best, for the second time. 

Not to mention, no one will ever even bring it up later on. No one says "Brady only really has 6 rings because he should have lost to the Seahawks". It's part of history, whether we like it or not. 

And CMC can't win the award no matter how good he is, because his position isn't valuable. By that logic, GOAT Justin Tucker might have won the award in 2019, when Lamar was still on his first year of production after a poor rookie campaign. 

[Soggust]

FWIW that's a bad example because Kelce is an above average blocker imo, but trying to sell my case so don't hold this position against me later on when I white knight Kelce's blocking in a Kittle debate.

[AngusMcFife]

1 hour ago, Thomas5737 said:

If he goes elsewhere it may not be as good of a situation (Ravens fans may debate this as they don't think he has much help).

Do you think Harbaugh's Ravens are a good team for offensive football? In the 10 seasons prior to Lamar I don't think their offense cracked the top quarter of the league a single time (coming closest in 2014). As far as yards/play they have consistently been in the 16-26 range in league rankings prior to Lamar. 

The Ravens of course always have had great defense and special teams. But Harbaugh is not a good offensive coach, and typically does not have good offensive coordinators (aside from Gary Kubiak for 2014). They often have had trouble developing WRs and had below average passing game.

I like what Lamar has done under Roman for 4 years and Monken for 1 year, but it would be interesting to see him paired with a great offensive mind.

[Soko]

20 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Why would I care if he runs or throws as long as long as he produces the same? 

Personally, I’m not sure I’d weigh in differently in terms of what he’s done, but I do weigh it differently in terms of value or ideal production.

My thinking is that, come crunch time or even in second halves when you’re down by two scores, you need a QB who can pass the ball. Obviously Lamar can sling it (and his escapability is amazing), but if you’re confining him to passing only, I think there’s a noticeable difference in his ability vs Mahomes’, or Allen’s, or Burrow’s. Some might say that that’s an oddly specific scenario, and that Lamar presents so much additional value in the run game (both as a runner and a decoy/just another player you have to account for) that it weighs out overall, and that’s fair too. I just believe that in any given postseason run, you’re going to find yourself in positions where the legs aren’t going to help you the same way an arm does, and that’s where Lamar gets shorted by some people. 

So no, I’m not going to say Lamar got 200 rushing and 100 passing, and that’s worse than 300 passing. But I will say that I’d rather have the guy who is an elite passer, elite escape artist, and meh runner than the guy who is a good passer, elite escape artist, and elite runner. 

[Soggust]

10 minutes ago, Soko said:

Personally, I’m not sure I’d weigh in differently in terms of what he’s done, but I do weigh it differently in terms of value or ideal production.

My thinking is that, come crunch time or even in second halves when you’re down by two scores, you need a QB who can pass the ball. Obviously Lamar can sling it (and his escapability is amazing), but if you’re confining him to passing only, I think there’s a noticeable difference in his ability vs Mahomes’, or Allen’s, or Burrow’s. Some might say that that’s an oddly specific scenario, and that Lamar presents so much additional value in the run game (both as a runner and a decoy/just another player you have to account for) that it weighs out overall, and that’s fair too. I just believe that in any given postseason run, you’re going to find yourself in positions where the legs aren’t going to help you the same way an arm does, and that’s where Lamar gets shorted by some people. 

So no, I’m not going to say Lamar got 200 rushing and 100 passing, and that’s worse than 300 passing. But I will say that I’d rather have the guy who is an elite passer, elite escape artist, and meh runner than the guy who is a good passer, elite escape artist, and elite runner. 

That's.....a really strong take imo and I think I might be a bit swayed here tbh.

Again, broad strokes maybe it's still "who cares" but perhaps applying a slight bias/weight does make sense given that logic.

The only counterargument I can think of is  - Would rushing yards also similarly benefit the down by two scores situation because the defense can't necessarily pin their ears back and drop 8? Because they have to keep a spy and play contain and mind the scramble?

So extreme to extreme, Marino might be a better passer down by 2 TDs but the defense has to play Lamar a lot more honest?

Edited February 7 by Soggust

[Thomas5737]

1 hour ago, Soggust said:

Why would I care if he runs or throws as long as long as he produces the same?

Goff had more passing yards and passing TDs than Lamar had total yards and total TDs this year. So did Dak. You have to weigh rushing yards and rushing TDs at a higher value for him to be competitive with them. Someone does because he will take home the MVP.

 

 

[diamondbull424]

4 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

No dog in the fight, but you're being deliberately obtuse, here.

Deliberately obtuse might be accurate…

3 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

We're talking about today so I don't have to reserve anything, I'm here.

Give me your reason why he should be in today. 2 MVPs. A lot of rushing yards for a QB. Then a mess of stats that he doesn't come close to when compared to an average QB career.

Lamar averages a few less passing yards per game than Otto Graham who played in the 40s and 50s. 184 passing yards per game for Lamar. He needs to work on his resume for a few years, then the conversation can be had. He hasn't cemented anything.

However when you’ve got someone cherry picking stats to downgrade a case, this is what happens.

Lamar Jackson “played” in every game his rookie season even though Flacco started the first 9 games. Lamar “played” because of run packages. If this were a non-AFCN fan, perhaps I would be willing to buy this as ignorance.

But in a 77 game NFL career, 9 games where one “plays” in little meaningful passing situations is cherry picking and being intentionally obtuse as well.

However 184 passing yards looks a whole lot better for the point vs 206 passing yards.

1 hour ago, Thomas5737 said:

If we pretend playoff performances and passing stats aren't heavily weighed, then sure. His two MVP season he passed for 60 TD. Manning did 55 in one year. Not all MVPs are the same. You could seriously debate that Lamar's 2020 season was better than his 2023 season and he wasn't even a probowl QB. Just a weird year and they insist on not giving it to the best player (McCaffrey).

No you cannot. You can only debate this if you looked at the stats with no context of how good defenses were this season compared to the last decade (half decade especially).

2023 was the year that defenses found a way to counterpunch all the rules and schemes contributing to dominant offensive play.

2023 might’ve been weak compared to other MVP seasons, but there is no comparison between 2023 Lamar and 2020 Lamar. 2023 had better volume and efficiency in a year where defenses were clamping down offenses to a higher degree. It’s not comparable and certainly not from the eye test. Whether this is a “weak” MVP or not, it’s not as if anyone else made for a better case and both Mahomes and Allen were both healthy… and those are the elite guys that actually matter. So weak or not, you can’t discredit the reality of the award.

So is Lamar a HOF lock? Probably. If Lamar tragically passed away this offseason in a Sean Taylor-esq situation, yes, he makes the HOF. His 2 MVPs, his highlight plays, his improvements, and his rushing success… it would get him into the HOF in based on both what he accomplished in his short career as well as what could have been. But if he continues to play is there a Russell Wilson path where you assume he’s a HOF and then some really bad seasons have you reevaluate his case and where to properly contextualize him… especially if he never wins a ring? Yeah, there’s a path where he doesn’t get in.

However outside of a tragic circumstance (that would explain him no longer playing), he’s likely going to continue to play football. And if he continues to play football, as long as he has a few more good to great seasons, with 2 MVPs it’ll be difficult to not put him in. What QBs of this generation are getting in above him based on current resumes? Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert are all exceptionally talented and all have a chance at the HOF, yet none have an MVP nor have any won a ring either.

So who else besides Mahomes is surefire taking this era’s QB HOF spots? Who has the next best claim behind Mahomes. Right now that’s Lamar and Allen.

Lastly if Mahomes tragically passed away this offseason (again a scenario that would explain him turning down millions to no longer play football), he’s making the HOF absolutely and you sound entirely illogical if you suggest that someone with his regular season and playoff resume doesn’t get in regardless of his longevity achievements. That’s absolutely absurd. It’s the Hall of Fame. Name a player of this era more famous than Mahomes? Name a QB more relevant to winning and achievement than Mahomes. Saying he isn’t currently a HOF QB that is still playing isn’t up for debate and it’s not quite absurd to suggest that he is not.

Lamar I could understand kickback, it would likely be a sympathy inclusion ultimately in a down year for where the Hall doesn’t have a tough path for him to overcome. But Mahomes? Absolutely no way he wouldn’t get into the HOF with his existing resume of peak/prime performance. If Kurt Warner could reach the HOF with a limited peak and Terrell Davis could reach it with a limited peak, there is absolutely, positively, NO WAY Mahomes would get left out because of him being outside the top 50 in passing yards. Absolutely no way. Might win 3 SBs and have 2 MVPs and yet we leave him out? 😂 😂 😂 

Edited February 7 by diamondbull424

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, Thomas5737 said:

If we pretend playoff performances and passing stats aren't heavily weighed, then sure. His two MVP season he passed for 60 TD. Manning did 55 in one year. Not all MVPs are the same. You could seriously debate that Lamar's 2020 season was better than his 2023 season and he wasn't even a probowl QB. Just a weird year and they insist on not giving it to the best player (McCaffrey).

I forgot to address the CMC point. If you think Lamar’s QB case is bad just look at CMC’s RB case.

You actually believe he would win MVP when there is LITERALLY no precedent for his stats winning the award for his position within the last 25 years of the award?

For a RB to win either you break a record such as rushing yards, YFS, TDs… or you don’t break them, but you find a way to finish top 3 in most of the categories at historical efficiency and volume.

CMC did none of that. Finished outside the top 10 in total TDs in history for RB and outside the top 25 in YFS.

Edited February 7 by diamondbull424

[Soggust]

28 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Goff had more passing yards and passing TDs than Lamar had total yards and total TDs this year. So did Dak. You have to weigh rushing yards and rushing TDs at a higher value for him to be competitive with them. Someone does because he will take home the MVP.

 

 

I like Goff and he had 3 more total TDs but he also had 3 more turnovers. The yardage is negligible and comp is negligible but the rating is in favor of Lamar as well as a better team record. 

I would have voted Dak for MVP personally so not gonna disagree there, but Lamar’s case was always “best player on best team” 

[Thomas5737]

51 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Deliberately obtuse might be accurate…

However when you’ve got someone cherry picking stats to downgrade a case, this is what happens.

Lamar Jackson “played” in every game his rookie season even though Flacco started the first 9 games. Lamar “played” because of run packages. If this were a non-AFCN fan, perhaps I would be willing to buy this as ignorance.

But in a 77 game NFL career, 9 games where one “plays” in little meaningful passing situations is cherry picking and being intentionally obtuse as well.

However 184 passing yards looks a whole lot better for the point vs 206 passing yards.

No you cannot. You can only debate this if you looked at the stats with no context of how good defenses were this season compared to the last decade (half decade especially).

2023 was the year that defenses found a way to counterpunch all the rules and schemes contributing to dominant offensive play.

2023 might’ve been weak compared to other MVP seasons, but there is no comparison between 2023 Lamar and 2020 Lamar. 2023 had better volume and efficiency in a year where defenses were clamping down offenses to a higher degree. It’s not comparable and certainly not from the eye test. Whether this is a “weak” MVP or not, it’s not as if anyone else made for a better case and both Mahomes and Allen were both healthy… and those are the elite guys that actually matter. So weak or not, you can’t discredit the reality of the award.

So is Lamar a HOF lock? Probably. If Lamar tragically passed away this offseason in a Sean Taylor-esq situation, yes, he makes the HOF. His 2 MVPs, his highlight plays, his improvements, and his rushing success… it would get him into the HOF in based on both what he accomplished in his short career as well as what could have been. But if he continues to play is there a Russell Wilson path where you assume he’s a HOF and then some really bad seasons have you reevaluate his case and where to properly contextualize him… especially if he never wins a ring? Yeah, there’s a path where he doesn’t get in.

However outside of a tragic circumstance (that would explain him no longer playing), he’s likely going to continue to play football. And if he continues to play football, as long as he has a few more good to great seasons, with 2 MVPs it’ll be difficult to not put him in. What QBs of this generation are getting in above him based on current resumes? Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert are all exceptionally talented and all have a chance at the HOF, yet none have an MVP nor have any won a ring either.

So who else besides Mahomes is surefire taking this era’s QB HOF spots? Who has the next best claim behind Mahomes. Right now that’s Lamar and Allen.

Lastly if Mahomes tragically passed away this offseason (again a scenario that would explain him turning down millions to no longer play football), he’s making the HOF absolutely and you sound entirely illogical if you suggest that someone with his regular season and playoff resume doesn’t get in regardless of his longevity achievements. That’s absolutely absurd. It’s the Hall of Fame. Name a player of this era more famous than Mahomes? Name a QB more relevant to winning and achievement than Mahomes. Saying he isn’t currently a HOF QB that is still playing isn’t up for debate and it’s not quite absurd to suggest that he is not.

Lamar I could understand kickback, it would likely be a sympathy inclusion ultimately in a down year for where the Hall doesn’t have a tough path for him to overcome. But Mahomes? Absolutely no way he wouldn’t get into the HOF with his existing resume of peak/prime performance. If Kurt Warner could reach the HOF with a limited peak and Terrell Davis could reach it with a limited peak, there is absolutely, positively, NO WAY Mahomes would get left out because of him being outside the top 50 in passing yards. Absolutely no way. Might win 3 SBs and have 2 MVPs and yet we leave him out? 😂 😂 😂 

Hard pass on reading all that, sorry.

I probably disagree though.

[Soko]

1 hour ago, Soggust said:

That's.....a really strong take imo and I think I might be a bit swayed here tbh.

Again, broad strokes maybe it's still "who cares" but perhaps applying a slight bias/weight does make sense given that logic.

The only counterargument I can think of is  - Would rushing yards also similarly benefit the down by two scores situation because the defense can't necessarily pin their ears back and drop 8? Because they have to keep a spy and play contain and mind the scramble?

So extreme to extreme, Marino might be a better passer down by 2 TDs but the defense has to play Lamar a lot more honest?

You’re absolutely right that teams can’t afford to just pin their ears back vs Lamar, no matter the situation. My response is kind of ambiguous and nuanced, but can they really do the same vs Mahomes? I’d argue that they shouldn’t, because Mahomes can hurt you with his legs too. And let’s say either defense is successful in either pressuring Mahomes or containing Lamar - I think I’m still more confident in Mahomes in terms of putting the ball downfield. I’d probably say the same with Allen, who is more of a middle ground between Lamar and Mahomes in terms of styles, maybe not as slippery but will do the damage on the ground while flinging it when it’s there.

Push comes to shove, I think I’d still take the elite passer over all, even if you consider the edge the runner takes off the pass rush. But that’s a good point. Maybe I value it too highly, I just really find elite passing to be the aces trait as far as QB play goes. Kind of an undefined term if you wanna get into the specifics of it, but I think it checks off more of the boxes than any other combo of elite traits + just a “good” passer. If we start talking specifically about a guy like Mahomes, then you’re looking at elite passer + elite pocket manipulation + can still hurt you with his legs, it’s almost an insurmountable mountain in terms of skill set + on field application.

EDIT: Side note to the conversation going on ITT - absolutely no way Lamar retires today and gets in the HOF. 

Edited February 7 by Soko

[Thomas5737]

41 minutes ago, Soggust said:

I like Goff and he had 3 more total TDs but he also had 3 more turnovers. The yardage is negligible and comp is negligible but the rating is in favor of Lamar as well as a better team record. 

Ravens won 1 more game than the Lions and their ratings are about the same, Goff's 3 more GWD should even it out. The point is, it's pretty close and no one thinks Goff had an MVP year. Purdy was clearly better. Dak was better. Tua right there too. They were all good teams.

[diamondbull424]

18 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Hard pass on reading all that, sorry.

I probably disagree though.

Which is why the majority of your points are illogical. Like your CMC argument is absolutely laughable. You’re just a hater.

[Thomas5737]

59 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Which is why the majority of your points are illogical. Like your CMC argument is absolutely laughable. You’re just a hater.

That's fine. Lamar had what, 8 more TDs than the RB?

I'm sure Lamar would trade the MVP to be where McCaffrey is right now. So I don't feel bad for Christian. Or Purdy. If they want to give it to Lamar it's fine. It's a QB award for the most part. If they want to penalize Purdy for the team around him, that's fine. If they want to penalize Dak for not being as good as people thought he should be in 2022, or whatever reason he wasn't a real option, that's fine. Ignore Josh QAllen's 44 TD and nearly 5k yards, that's fine. Jordan Love had over 4k yards passing and 36 total TDs.

Stroud and Mayfield had big years taking preseason bottom 3 teams to the playoffs and winning one.

Mahomes is pretty good too.

No one QB was head and shoulders above the rest.

McCaffrey's closest non QB competition is Lamb or Hill and he had a couple hundred more yards than either and 7 and 8 more TDs. He won the rushing title by 300 yards. Mostert also had 21 TDs but almost 1000 fewer total yards. I think he has a very good case for MVP.

I kinda hope Lamar wins by unanimous decision just to show how silly the award is this year. It's been a silly award several years though, this isn't the first. It just hurts the integrity of the award a little more.

[Soggust]

18 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

If they want to penalize Dak for not being as good as people thought he should be in 2022, or whatever reason he wasn't a real option, that's fine.

gdi take a football bc this made me laugh