TheKillerNacho Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 nfl fans are the worst, truly 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roger murdock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Nobody deserved MVP this year - it’s the weakest and least deserving group in a long time. You can poke major holes in any candidates resume. Some years Crash or Nomadland wins best picture, some years you get Pulp Fuction, Shawshank, Forrest Gump, and Quiz Show all head to head. Nature of awards. If you could pick nobody and give two MVPs next year I would have supported a roll-over but you can’t do that. With regards to Lamar, at end of the day he needs to play well in the playoffs. He’s underwhelmed every time and goes away from what makes him great while trying to ‘prove it’ as a passer and he makes stupid decisions that lose games. Lamar is a good passer but he acts like people still view him as a WR prospect - how about try to win the game instead of trying to be Mahomes or Rodgers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMcFife Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 8 minutes ago, Soko said: In 2023, passing offense was more correlative to TOP/drive than rushing offense was. Teams with higher TOP/drive also didn’t correlate very highly with teams running lots of total offensive plays or plays/drive, which indicates to me that when moving the ball and keeping drives alive, it’s more important that you get it done than it is how you get it done. So I don’t find your point to have merit. Passing offense was also more correlative to scoring%, FWIW. Could you share your source? Those sound like some juicy stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 (edited) 3 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said: Could you share your source? Those sound like some juicy stats. Just cross referencing on PFR for 2023. FWIW, it’s not an exact science. Teams like the Bills, Niners, Rams, and Lions were both top 10 in passing and rushing. Meanwhile the Ravens weren’t a top 10 total passing offense by volume, so they weren’t included, but they obviously were efficient passing the ball. Should’ve checked using DVOA. Edited February 7 by Soko Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMcFife Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, Soko said: Just cross referencing on PFR for 2023. So when you say these things are correlated, what you are saying is that you looked at some numbers and made a conclusion about it based on vibes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dbrog24 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 It's kinda weird this discussion has switched to "does Lamar deserve MVP?" Aren't we all basically in agreement that MVP is a regular season award? I'm not sure who would mind Lamar with this criteria. He was the best player on the best regular season team. That's many times good enough to win it. If we are talking about Superbowl, I'ma just Occams Razor it and say they won't win the Superbowl with him, simply because they haven't yet and it's hard to do. It's a pretty safe bet TBH 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 (edited) 16 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said: So when you say these things are correlated, what you are saying is that you looked at some numbers and made a conclusion about it based on vibes. No. I cross referenced total passing yards, total rushing yards, TOP/drive, and scoring%. Thats not “vibes”, that’s quite literally, just looking for correlations between public data. It’s not rocket science, it’s public information. Fake news to you, lmao. Already said that it’s not exact because you could always use passing efficiency, DVOA, or something else instead of total passing yards. But we were discussing passing vs rushing yards specifically, so it is what it is. Edited February 7 by Soko Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonanza23 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, roger murdock said: Pulp Fuction, Porno? Spoiler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncos_fan _from _uk Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Interesting discussion here on the relative importance of pass vs run yards from the QB. Interestingly some of the points being brought up by the pro running QB contingent are some of the same that were brought up against the transition to being a passing league in the first place (keeping the opposing team off the field, ect). but the question asked was can he win a SB. The answer is of course he could, if everything line up right. But he probably won’t. The playoffs are a different beast. I went back and looked at the last 6 years of playoff games to see which QB won. The one with the most passing yards? Most QB rushing yards? Fewest turnovers? Most 3rd/4th down conversions? my initial plan was to go back 20 years but the % for each stabilized pretty quickly and more data wasn’t moving the needle so I stopped. most passing yards? 33-39 likely has to do with teams being down and playing catch up thus abandoning the run Most QB rushing yards? 34-38 likely has to do with the fact that offenses that rely too much on a single player are easier to defend against best 3/4th down conversion rate? 36-12-24 won the TO battle? 38-7-27 (fun fact. The team who lost the most despite winning the a TO battle? San Diego including the game last year where Jax committed 5 TO and still won. Chargers gonna charger) The QBs that win in the playoffs (and thus win SBs) are consistent. They convert on 3rd down. They don’t turn the ball over. They play within the context of the game instead of turning every play into a broken play. That’s why I don’t think Lamar Jackson will ever win a SB. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMcFife Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, Soko said: No. I cross referenced total passing yards, total rushing yards, TOP/drive, and scoring%. Thats not “vibes”, that’s quite literally, just looking for correlations between public data. It’s not rocket science, it’s public information. Fake news to you, lmao. Already said that it’s not exact because you could always use passing efficiency, DVOA, or something else instead of total passing yards. But we were discussing passing vs rushing yards specifically, so it is what it is. Ok I didn't see your edit. Thanks for the clarification. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roger murdock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 If Lamar plays like he does in the regular season - yes for sure If Lamar plays like he has in the playoffs - not unless the defense is unreal About half of super bowls are won by QBs worse than Lamar, but nearly all have played at a higher level in the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMcFife Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 28 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said: The QBs that win in the playoffs (and thus win SBs) are consistent. They convert on 3rd down. They don’t turn the ball over. They play within the context of the game instead of turning every play into a broken play. That’s why I don’t think Lamar Jackson will ever win a SB. What about Nick Foles? He sucks and can't hold down a starting job, but he won a Super Bowl. I'd say you are describing a caricature of Lamar rather than who he really is as a player. You think Lamar is turnover prone? And the Ravens don't convert 3rd downs? Weird. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dbrog24 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 41 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said: What about Nick Foles? He sucks and can't hold down a starting job, but he won a Super Bowl. I'd say you are describing a caricature of Lamar rather than who he really is as a player. You think Lamar is turnover prone? And the Ravens don't convert 3rd downs? Weird. That Nick Foles pretty much fits exactly what UK was talking about. In that post season, he completed over 70% of his passes (9.2 Yd Avg BTW), had 6 TDs and only 1 interception. That team was just straight solid and they profited with that by basically making less mistakes than their opponents. I think as many have pointed to in this thread, Playoff Lamar hasn't exactly been as consistent as Season Lamar. That's not a caricature, that's based on multiple post seasons he's been in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMcFife Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 10 minutes ago, Dbrog24 said: That Nick Foles pretty much fits exactly what UK was talking about. In that post season, he completed over 70% of his passes (9.2 Yd Avg BTW), had 6 TDs and only 1 interception. That team was just straight solid and they profited with that by basically making less mistakes than their opponents. Ok but I think you are changing it to a different argument. Nick Foles demonstrates that regardless of how good a QB is in the regular season, he can magically turn it on and be a great postseason performer. Flacco is another example. But the question is, why isn't that also true for Lamar? Because in 2018 Foles sucked again in the playoffs. It's not like he has some special powers that made him good in the playoffs, he just randomly got hot and won a Super Bowl, and went right back to being mediocre/inconsistent for the rest of his career, including the playoffs. Quote I think as many have pointed to in this thread, Playoff Lamar hasn't exactly been as consistent as Season Lamar. That's not a caricature, that's based on multiple post seasons he's been in. What if there is no Playoff Lamar and Season Lamar, there's just ... Lamar, and his best games are randomly distributed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said: Nick Foles demonstrates that regardless of how good a QB is in the regular season, he can magically turn it on and be a great postseason performer. Flacco is another example. But the question is, why isn't that also true for Lamar? Eh. All Nick Foles really demonstrates is that Nick Foles was able to do it. It does not mean that the same is necessarily true of any QB. It may or may not be true for Lamar as well. Evidence so far has been that that has not happened for Lamar. Any speculation towards the future is just that, speculation. You can ask why can't that be true for Lamar as well, but it's just as valid to ask why it would be. There's really no more reason to point to Foles or Flacco as proof Lamar can do it than there is to point to Rivers or Marino for why he can't. I have no idea if they make it happen at some point or not. Lamar is great and the Ravens are well run, but it's also just really hard to do in the first place. It's safe to say regardless that Lamar needs to do better in the post season if it's ever going to happen. And I think it's understandable that some see that body of work so far and believe it will continue. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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