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2024 49ers offseason


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4 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

I am saying the athleticism a QB uses is different than the athleticism people talk about.  

I look at what is useful.  Quickness is a valuable trait for a football player to have.  I consider the ability to fit through a tiny space using instincts and foot quickness an athletic trait.  Choosing where to throw is mental, but the throw itself and placing it is athletic again.  

If an athlete is doin it physically while playing their sport, that is the athleticism I care about.  Purdy's foot quickness; his ability to start, stop, and throw are super important on every single play.  ALex's 40 time mattered like three times his entire career.  Most people care about the 40 time though, so I don't dispute that.  This is also why Purdy fell to the 7th compared to Kenny Pickett.  I bet Kenny Pickett runs a nice 40, and maybe that will actually matter someday.  Purdy's unmeasurable ability to stop and take two steps before being tackled matters a lot.  If it's not athletic,  I don't know what it is. 

It's not like he uses magic, his legs are built like tanks and his lower base is highly developed.  He has elite balance because he has a very strong base.  That is the combination of strength, skill and quickness.  Some might even call it athleticism.

 

It sounds like you're upset that people don't use the same definition of athleticism that you do, which I can't really help with.

I've never heard of anyone quantifying throw placement as an athletic trait. Not saying it shouldn't be, I get the idea behind it, but   have never seen anyone (besides you) describe it that way, so I wouldn't expect that to be considered as part of the "athleticism" eval. 

I think you have a somewhat unique definition of athleticism which is fine, but also understandable why people wouldn't have the same evaluations of certain traits

Kenny Pickett had a monster senior season which played a huge role in him going first I'm sure,  along with his "quantified athleticism". Purdy was basically flat for his 4 year career. Pickett's 40 was pretty comparable to Purdy's, though he was 5 pounds heavier (4.73 to 4.76).  Pickett is a cautionary tale on random 5th year seniors just suddenly blowing up one year when they are 23-24 years old ((Hello Jayden Daniels!)).  I didn't like Pickett as a prospect at all...thought he was day 3 / undraftable type to me because I didn't believe the final season and was highly skeptical. 

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Also, lets not get it twisted....Sikkema said "Does he have the athletic talent of some other players...No" which I think we can all acknowledge as accurate lol . He didn't really say that Purdy "wasn't athletic". 

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3 hours ago, JIllg said:

Absolutely. Brock is just a really weird evaluation. 

Like, take away the weapons (and there are a lot of them and they also add value), just having Kyle Shanahan and a functional set of tools and a rosterable NFL quarterback has been a path to from the pocket offensive success other teams would kill for. You can credit Kyle with taking Matt Ryan from a solid starting quarterback that makes your franchise relevant, but can't carry a team to playoff success to being an MVP. Jimmy G has a career 8.2! YPA because most of it has been spent playing for Shanahan and he was always near the top of the heap of EPA/Play (he was best in the NFL here with CMC before the injury) and DVOA from a clean pocket with us in spite of his obvious limitations. 

Then, you add in the weapons which are collectively among the best sets that have been assembled in this millennium when they are all available (which, admittedly, is like for a quarter of the games these days). It's like Peyton Manning's 49 TD season or the Greatest Show on Turf weapons wise. And the run blocking is very good - I think that the team was like 5th in offensive line yards. They are a real threat on the ground that has to be game planned around and draws extra run defending personnel for the weapons to shred.

So Brock has a tremendous situation from a clean pocket from which most solid players will really excel. Only, he had by far the worst offensive line among playoff QBs - he would have killed for the wide open pockets that Goff and Love were playing with as our four man pass rushes got neutered over and over again. So he gets clean pockets more rarely than any other of the quarterbacks that we'd consider really great. And it muddies his failures - all quarterbacks are pretty poopy under pressure in comparison to their regular selves. 

Lastly, Brock put up top of history numbers in just about every efficiency metric. Pick your flavor, he was awe-inspiring if you are considering him without the context from the first couple of paragraphs - heck, it's awe inspiring with the context. Even with awesome weapons, dudes don't usually do top-of-history good. Even some of the ball placement metrics that account for degree of difficulty and traditionally hate Shanahan 49ers QBs thought he was a top 5 guy last year. If he was merely very good or one of the best of the year in the efficiency column, I think that we could pretty safely say that he's just a back half starting quarterback or so. Given the information we have, he blew what we know about QBs in this system out of the water. 

So what does this mean? I dunno. Not sure that we'll ever know really, as long as Brock and Shanahan are tied together.  But, like. If he's putting up 9+ ypa every year with a low enough turnover rate, it ain't gonna matter. That's MVP caliber production even if the player would be less impressive in a lesser context and isn't the best player in a contextless environment. And if you get MVP caliber production out of your QB, you are going to contend for championships. If Brock drops back to like 8 - 8.5 ypa and/or his turnovers spike, then he's probably just a Jimmy G that got hot and had a really quality level of talent. 

But I will say, it's funny that folks say that he got carried, because this was one of the 3 cheapest offenses in the NFL last year. A GIANT chunk of that was that Purdy and the QB room were immensely cheap. A good bit was that Aiyuk was on his rookie deal. But the team was also 4th from the bottom in spending on the offensive line. We were able to carry that cheap unit on the offense in a way that some quarterbacks would not have been able to handle given their pressure to sack rates and their falloffs on pressured dropbacks. Some of the more physically gifted rookie contract quarterbacks that are being heavily lauded currently fall under this umbrella.

I think that this is a good sign that between Purdy and Shanahan, we will be able to do special things even when the QB contract is taking up more room. We'll have to get some rookie contracts on the team somewhere - Pearsall and Cowing working out would be good starts, as would Willis if he improves. Ditto Puni. We'll need to be more efficient in our spending on defense - that unit underperformed its cost last year. But I think that there's reason to believe that we'll make it if we prioritize smartly.

 

The hyperbole can get pretty rough on both sides.

On the main board, there was a conversation about Purdy with regards to the MVP voting and someone asked about how often he left throws on the field or how he lucked into throws or was bailed out by his skill position players lol. I really think that for some people, it's a minor miracle that Purdy can put on his cleats without Deebo Samuel getting the left one on for him first. Like absolutely 0 credit for the small stuff that he does that aligns with the reasons good QBs are good (piggybacking on what @Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said about how the things he does are actually relevant and impactful on a football field). 

Meanwhile, on twitter, 49ers fanbase is apoplectic every time Purdy is not like top 4 in every single possible ranking of every single aspect of a QBs trait. "Purdy doesn't have a top 2 strongest arm? What are you talking about??!!!" which i think creates an environment that non 49ers fans absolutely hate and causes them to push back against Purdy just because lol. 

I'm curious to see what happens when Purdy is going to get paid. Statistically, it's going to regress. It has to. There's a reason that last season his statistical  profile was so special. But how much is an interesting question when the talent around him starts to thin out just a little. I think his baseline is pretty high though. 

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8 minutes ago, Forge said:

It sounds like you're upset that people don't use the same definition of athleticism that you do, which I can't really help with.

I've never heard of anyone quantifying throw placement as an athletic trait. Not saying it shouldn't be, I get the idea behind it, but   have never seen anyone (besides you) describe it that way, so I wouldn't expect that to be considered as part of the "athleticism" eval. 

I think you have a somewhat unique definition of athleticism which is fine, but also understandable why people wouldn't have the same evaluations of certain traits

Kenny Pickett had a monster senior season which played a huge role in him going first I'm sure,  along with his "quantified athleticism". Purdy was basically flat for his 4 year career. Pickett's 40 was pretty comparable to Purdy's, though he was 5 pounds heavier (4.73 to 4.76).  Pickett is a cautionary tale on random 5th year seniors just suddenly blowing up one year when they are 23-24 years old ((Hello Jayden Daniels!)).  I didn't like Pickett as a prospect at all...thought he was day 3 / undraftable type to me because I didn't believe the final season and was highly skeptical. 

Jayden Daniels has so many red flags to worry about. He's also got that Jalen Hurts/Russell Wilson thing where he makes up for a lot of problems by only targeting outside the numbers and down the field and being exceptional at that one skill. He's got the Justin Fields supporting cast thing of having every great wide receiver in college on his team. I don't think that he's got plus arm strength. I actually really like the rhythm of his footwork and he's a breathtaking open field athlete and he made a ton of impressive throws last year, but his play threw up almost every red flag in my brain, lol. 

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Forge said:

The hyperbole can get pretty rough on both sides.

On the main board, there was a conversation about Purdy with regards to the MVP voting and someone asked about how often he left throws on the field or how he lucked into throws or was bailed out by his skill position players lol. I really think that for some people, it's a minor miracle that Purdy can put on his cleats without Deebo Samuel getting the left one on for him first. Like absolutely 0 credit for the small stuff that he does that aligns with the reasons good QBs are good (piggybacking on what @Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said about how the things he does are actually relevant and impactful on a football field). 

Meanwhile, on twitter, 49ers fanbase is apoplectic every time Purdy is not like top 4 in every single possible ranking of every single aspect of a QBs trait. "Purdy doesn't have a top 2 strongest arm? What are you talking about??!!!" which i think creates an environment that non 49ers fans absolutely hate and causes them to push back against Purdy just because lol. 

I'm curious to see what happens when Purdy is going to get paid. Statistically, it's going to regress. It has to. There's a reason that last season his statistical  profile was so special. But how much is an interesting question when the talent around him starts to thin out just a little. I think his baseline is pretty high though. 

The bolded is very true if you also include contextless numbers nerds too that go hard in on the statistical accomplishments, lol. Or the WINZ folks that give him outsized credit because of team accomplishments. 

It's funny how the mind latches on to specific examples that support arguments and ignore contradictory evidence. I'm guilty at times even when I attempt to be vigilant.  It certainly didn't help Purdy's rest of the NFL cause that his worst games were the widest viewed. So folks (reasonably enough) assume that the play that they saw was entirely representative of Purdy's play for the season. 

Edited by JIllg
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2 hours ago, JIllg said:

It's funny how the mind latches on to specific examples that support arguments and ignore contradictory evidence. I'm guilty at times even when I attempt to be vigilant.  It certainly didn't help Purdy's rest of the NFL cause that his worst games were the widest viewed. So folks (reasonably enough) assume that the play that they saw was entirely representative of Purdy's play for the season. 

And the a game where he was awesome (Dallas) doesn't count in the minds of most because....it was Dallas....widely viewed as annual frauds lol. 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Forge said:

And the a game where he was awesome (Dallas) doesn't count in the minds of most because....it was Dallas....widely viewed as annual frauds lol. 

 

 

 

Right - in spite of the fact that the Dallas defense had been a buzzsaw against passing offenses in particular but all offenses generally last year and the before. They had an all time defensive DVOA coming into our game last year.

Getting annihilated by the Packers will do that. Also, having a pillow soft defensive schedule will also do that - they were definitely bouyed by double Giants and double Commanders and the two South divisions on their schedule. 

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Posted (edited)

Man, I'm ALL ABOUT the Staley shadow government.  I really think he's sharp as hell and his schemes on the Rams were amazingly effective.  Another great hire by Shanny imo. 

Edited by WhyAmIHere
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29 minutes ago, Forge said:

Nick Bosa, ladies and gentlemen 😂 

I liked his response about the superbowl, not sure if it is in this clip or not but it is in the same press confrence.

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32 minutes ago, burlow said:

I liked his response about the superbowl, not sure if it is in this clip or not but it is in the same press confrence.

what did he say?

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