AZBearsFan Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 39 minutes ago, Karnage84 said: My thought process was - if I'm Matt Eberflus and I'm trying to keep my job, do I want to draft a rookie guy, have him struggle, and then get fired 8 weeks in? Or bring in a veteran, build up the roster, add someone that can be our QBOTF and legitimately compete for the division? Caleb could come in and ball out but he's not a sure thing either. Counterpoint: Russ was 11-19 the past 2 seasons with a Denver team that arguably has a better roster than us or at minimum a comparable one. Why should we expect he’d be more successful here in 2024? If the season starts slow and you’re on a vet QB IMO you’re in a far worse situation from a job security standpoint if you’re Flus than if the season starts slow and you can point to rookie QB growing pains. Russ got $48Mx5 from Denver and they’re sending him away after 2 years for what will almost certainly be record dead cap space and zero in return. Why in the world would Flus and Poles (if he’s passing on QB at 1 and still trading away Fields) put their jobs on the line and in the hands of that guy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky151 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Wilson was bad in 2022 under Hackett but he was decent last year. Even with him being benched the last 2 games he had a 26-8 TD/INT ratio. Bears would have been a playoff team with a ratio like that last season. Wilson is a 2 or 3 year stopgap but not a bad option. He's guaranteed 39 mil by Denver but it's subject to offset from anything he makes with a new team. So he gets the same total whether he signs for 1 mil or 30. He has no incentive to save the Broncos money so he'll probably play for cheap in 2024 if he likes the situation. But he'll want guaranteed money for 2025 or beyond. The advantage to signing Wilson is it frees up the Bears to trade both Fields and pick #1 and beef up the rest of the roster and add some future draft capital. Wilson is a high floor but not high ceiling option. He can get the Bears to the playoffs and maybe a win if the rest of the roster is upgraded. But he's probably not taking you to the Super Bowl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskieBear Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 36 minutes ago, sparky151 said: Wilson is a 2 or 3 year stopgap but not a bad option yeah, but what do we do when he's 39 years old and we're picking in the 8-17 range in 2-3 years? essentially trade the equivalent amount of picks we would get for #1 this year to trade up to get a guy in 2-3 years? just take your guy 1.1 this year and don't look back 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky151 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 If you have an extra 1st next year (and maybe an extra conditional pick from a Fields trade) you could move up from wherever Caleb Williams team is picking to get Ewers or Sanders or Milroe or Beck or whomever. The point is you don't have to take a QB this year if you're not sold on Williams. If you think he's the next Mahomes, you grab him. If you think he's emotionally fragile, you let someone else overpay for him. For that matter if you aren't sold on Williams but do like Maye or Daniels, you can move down for a small haul. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 12 hours ago, HuskieBear said: yeah, but what do we do when he's 39 years old and we're picking in the 8-17 range in 2-3 years? essentially trade the equivalent amount of picks we would get for #1 this year to trade up to get a guy in 2-3 years? just take your guy 1.1 this year and don't look back Often the team picking 1,2 or even 3 needs a QB and they are not inclined to trade out in any event. Especially if it is a year when people like the QBs. Like this year. I remember saying I would trade our whole draft and then some for right to draft Burrow to Bengals fans and they just laughed at me. Rightfully so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Just now, dll2000 said: Often the team picking 1,2 or even 3 needs a QB and they are not inclined to trade out in any event. Especially if it is a year when people like the QBs. Like this year. I remember saying I would trade our whole draft and then some for right to draft Burrow to Bengals fans and they just laughed at me. Rightfully so. So if you are in a position where you need to trade up for QB 1) they have you over a barrel and 2) a lot of times you aren’t getting best or a well thought of prospect. The top guys teams always keep. Now obviously Mahomes went later. It isn’t an exact science of course. But Lawerence’s, Manning’s, Burrow’s etc, aren’t getting traded. Williams is in those categories as a prospect. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 If Williams comes out last year after he won Heisman that would have been a very, very hard decision for Bears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky151 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 But if you look at the top 5 or 10 QBs in the NFL, Burrow is the only one who was the first QB picked of his class. Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Herbert, etc had other QBs picked ahead of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 3 hours ago, sparky151 said: But if you look at the top 5 or 10 QBs in the NFL, Burrow is the only one who was the first QB picked of his class. Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Herbert, etc had other QBs picked ahead of them. Picking a QB 1st overall first only assures you that you’ll get “your guy” - it doesn’t assure you that you get the most successful guy out of the class or even that the player is any good, but it takes that variable out of the equation. From a GM standpoint that’s a big deal since your career is undoubtedly tied to the success or failure of that single player more than any other. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 21 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said: Picking a QB 1st overall first only assures you that you’ll get “your guy” - it doesn’t assure you that you get the most successful guy out of the class or even that the player is any good, but it takes that variable out of the equation. From a GM standpoint that’s a big deal since your career is undoubtedly tied to the success or failure of that single player more than any other. And in a redraft or redo from those years all those guys go number 1 overall. Nobody would trade. Same with Rodgers, Marino, Brady, Stroud, Montana, etc. Sometimes you just get lucky because the other guys miss and take wrong guy. But the point is the VALUE of the position and the right QB is always worth the 1st over all pick. You have to believe you are taking the right guy. It's just sometimes you get it wrong. That can't stop you from pulling trigger. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky151 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 3 hours ago, AZBearsFan said: Picking a QB 1st overall first only assures you that you’ll get “your guy” - it doesn’t assure you that you get the most successful guy out of the class or even that the player is any good, but it takes that variable out of the equation. From a GM standpoint that’s a big deal since your career is undoubtedly tied to the success or failure of that single player more than any other. Yes, that's why teams overpay to move up for a QB. If the Bears preferred QB in this draft isn't Williams, then they can make Washington pay to get Caleb, with the Bears getting their guy plus some extra picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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