A CHICAGO BEARS DRAFT FROM A LIONS FAN

[Karnage84]

Bears fans, I've put together a mini-mock off-season (some FA + 3 round draft) to see what things could look like around the division. 

This would be a pretty scary off-season for me, as a Lions fan. I am curious to see how it would go over for you guys. 

 

CHICAGO

The Bears are in a super intriguing spot. Matt Eberflus somehow has retained his job. They're trying to figure out what to do with Justin Fields. The Bears played the Lions pretty hard and we split the series in 2023. 

FREE AGENCY

The Bears have a ton of cap space and a sense of urgency to get the ship righted. 

• Danielle Hunter - 3 years x $75M
• Jaylon Johnson - Franchise Tag ($18M)
• Mike Evans - 3 years x $16M

 

POST DRAFT SIGNING

• Russell Wilson, QB: New Bears OC, Shane Waldron, spent the 2021 season with Wilson in Seattle. Eberflus needs a strong season otherwise he's likely going to be fired. He brings in a veteran starter to complement the pieces he's added to the defense. Wilson holds off on making his selection until after the draft. 

DRAFT

TRADES

Washington trades the #2 overall pick, #40, 2025 2nd to Chicago for #1 Overall. Washington drafts Caleb Williams, QC, USC: The Commanders are poised to select their QBOTF. The Bears continue to add draft capital to build out the roster. 

Pittsburgh trades #20, #84 for Justin Fields and #40: Justin Fields gets a chance of scenery and Mike Tomlin is reportedly a fan. The Bears get a 1st while the Steelers give up the value of a high 2nd. 

Las Vegas trades #13, #44, #77, 2025 1st, 2025 2nd to the Bears for #2 overall. Las Vegas selects Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU: The Bears get an offer they can't refuse from the Raiders. New HC Antonio Pierce has strong connections to Daniels from his time at Arizona State. The Raiders need to upgrade their QB position from the likes of Jimmy G and Aidan O'Connell. 

#9 Joe Alt, LT, Notre Dame: The Bears added Darnell Wright last year at RT. They now add Alt to be their book-end on the left-hand side. Chicago looks to what the Lions have done and how they've had success over the past few years under Dan Campbell. Emphasizing the OL has been a key part of that.

#13 Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama:  This is a passing league and the Bears want to add a running mate to go with Johnson. Arnold has a high ceiling and can develop into a top flight corner

#20 Jackson Powers-Johnson, OC, Oregon: The Bears get their Frank Ragnow. They have a young OL group that will be foundational for years to come

Chicago trades #84 and 2025 1st(LV) to Kansas City for #32

#32 JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan: This could be a matter of "pick your flavour". Maybe it's McCarthy or Penix or Nix. The Bears now have a young QB they can develop to help reset the QB clock as opposed to paying Fields a big-value contract. Wilson should allow them to be competitive this year with an eye toward the future. 

#44 Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State: Despite the additions of Sweat and Hunter, you can never have enough pass-rush. Robinson can be a high-end backup who should develop into a starting role

#75 Jalen McMillan, WR, Washington: The Bears need a Slot WR with Mooney being a free agent. Russell Wilson now has a strong OL to go along with DJ Moore, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan as his receiving options

#77 DeWayne Carter, DT, Duke: The Bears need a 3T on the defensive line. Carter has the easiest job in the world being paired up with Montez Sweat and Danielle Hunter. 

 

SUMMARY

As a Lions fan, I would hate this. The Bears have some talented pieces already and this would make them legit contenders in the NFC North. 

[Sugashane]

Love FA, love the idea of trading down and the haul for Fields is better than I actually hope for by a fair margin, but Wilson just scares me. Alt would be a great signing and likely lets Jones fight for the RG spot with Davis. Arnold is a bit of a luxury pick with Johnson being brought back but with Johnson and Arnold that means one of Gordon, Stevenson or Smith gets kicked back to FS, which I'm not opposed to at all. JPJ is a DUDE and one I would love to see in the Bears orange and blue. I honestly don't like McCarthy, Penix or Nix very much but while sitting behind Wilson I could be talked into it. I just don't think any of those three are special. But with enough talent I would be higher on Penix or McCarthy as someone I would try to groom into the system. Chop has tools and getting him to follow Hunter and Sweat sound fantastic. McMillen is the guy with all the tools to be a scary slot receiver, he can really jump out of breaks so I've liked him for a while, and maybe he ends up being a perfect compliment to the Moore/Evans combo. I know almost nothing of Carter, but I think the 3T spot is pretty locked up with Dexter and Pickens. Dexter likely starts at 3T while Billings starts at NT, then when it is a long situation Dexter and Pickens are the two DTs. I'm always a fan of adding passrushing bodies though. 

But Wilson is the one part I really don't like. I just don't think he is more than a placeholder and likely is WAY overpriced for what he is at this point. BUT - your trade gets the Bears a 2025 1st and 2 2025 2nds, so no matter what happens in 2025 they walk into the offseason with 2 1sts and 4 2nds, so damn... if the Bears fell for a guy like Sanders, Ewers, or whoever seems to jump out of the woodwork then they have plenty of ammo to trade up for someone even if they skip QB entirely. 

If they did this offseason I'd rather change McCarthy to Brice, DeJean, Barton, Fautanu, or Mims (I am guessing one will fall to 1.32, IDK). 

All in all I like the aggressiveness, I am a fan of tking the big swing and think this would be one I fully could be behind. Thanks for posting it!

[Karnage84]

10 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

Love FA, love the idea of trading down and the haul for Fields is better than I actually hope for by a fair margin, but Wilson just scares me. Alt would be a great signing and likely lets Jones fight for the RG spot with Davis. Arnold is a bit of a luxury pick with Johnson being brought back but with Johnson and Arnold that means one of Gordon, Stevenson or Smith gets kicked back to FS, which I'm not opposed to at all. JPJ is a DUDE and one I would love to see in the Bears orange and blue. I honestly don't like McCarthy, Penix or Nix very much but while sitting behind Wilson I could be talked into it. I just don't think any of those three are special. But with enough talent I would be higher on Penix or McCarthy as someone I would try to groom into the system. Chop has tools and getting him to follow Hunter and Sweat sound fantastic. McMillen is the guy with all the tools to be a scary slot receiver, he can really jump out of breaks so I've liked him for a while, and maybe he ends up being a perfect compliment to the Moore/Evans combo. I know almost nothing of Carter, but I think the 3T spot is pretty locked up with Dexter and Pickens. Dexter likely starts at 3T while Billings starts at NT, then when it is a long situation Dexter and Pickens are the two DTs. I'm always a fan of adding passrushing bodies though. 

But Wilson is the one part I really don't like. I just don't think he is more than a placeholder and likely is WAY overpriced for what he is at this point. BUT - your trade gets the Bears a 2025 1st and 2 2025 2nds, so no matter what happens in 2025 they walk into the offseason with 2 1sts and 4 2nds, so damn... if the Bears fell for a guy like Sanders, Ewers, or whoever seems to jump out of the woodwork then they have plenty of ammo to trade up for someone even if they skip QB entirely. 

If they did this offseason I'd rather change McCarthy to Brice, DeJean, Barton, Fautanu, or Mims (I am guessing one will fall to 1.32, IDK). 

All in all I like the aggressiveness, I am a fan of tking the big swing and think this would be one I fully could be behind. Thanks for posting it!

Caleb Williams: Caleb Williams is not a finished product and has some question marks. We've seen generational guys like Trevor Lawrence not live up to the hype. We've seen other guys like Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson become MVP caliber players. There's going to be come people that would look at Poles sideways and wonder why he would bypass Mahomes 2.0. Continuing to build out the roster and inserting a guy into a good environment makes more sense to me. Eberflus is not a Poles hire, so if this season goes the way that I (as a Lions fan) hope it does, then Eberflus won't be there next year. Drafting a QB and then having him run through multiple systems in the early part of his career is a surefire way to ensure he doesn't succeed. 

Russell Wilson: I think you could get him for 2 years x $50M ($25M APY). Look at it as a 1 year deal with an option and some guaranteed money in there. He graded out ok on PFF (77.5) and had some flashes. Wilson and Sean Payton were never going to work. He really is just a high-end placeholder to allow your next guy to have an opportunity to develop and not be forced to start. If that guy can beat RW out in the off-season, then you're cooking with gas. 

QB at 32: The value is that you get that 5th year option. If the guy balls out, you have cost control. If he falters, you can move on from him like the Patriots will be doing with Mac Jones. My initial draft had Penix here but it doesn't really matter. The other consideration is that the 2025 has a lot of questions about the quality of the QB class while the 2024 class seems to be a bit deeper. I had drafted Spencer Rattler in the 3rd round in my initial (Penix + Rattler) version (PFF restarted and I scaled down to a 3 rounder vs a 7 rounder). There could be some double dipping and adding a guy like Pratt or Rattler in addition to a Penix, McCarthy, Nix like Washington did in 2012 (RG3 + Cousins). 

Arnold: I'm not as familiar with some of the players you guys have. Arnold just gives you a high end talent at a key position. You can't have enough depth here. We learned that hard lesson when Aiyuk caught the ball off of a PS guy in Vildor's facemask

Other guys at 32: Neither Mims or DeJean were available here. I didn't want to go Barton or Fautanu as we've already addressed OL (LT and OC) while you added Wright last year (a really good player) at RT. 

 

I just had a bunch of thoughts brewing around what it could look like for you guys. I posted it in the Lions chat but thought to share here. It's the off-season so it can't hurt to have something to chew on. 

Appreciate the thoughts and feedback.

[AZBearsFan]

Can’t see the Bears taking a CB in R1. JJ returns here and Tyrique Stevenson was one of the top rookie CBs in the league last year. CB is about last on our list of needs.

As to QB, you have us trading from 1 to 2 for nothing more than what amounts to a better return in a Fields trade, then from 2 to 13, passing on all the non-CW QBs, for a future 1 we end up trading to move up for JJ McCarthy at 32 (who btw almost certainly won’t be there at 32)? If Poles comes away from the 1st overall pick with QB4/5 in the draft plus a 2, 3 and a future 2 that would be an absolute catastrophe.

I like the rest though. 🤷‍♂️

[Madmike90]

11 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Can’t see the Bears taking a CB in R1. JJ returns here and Tyrique Stevenson was one of the top rookie CBs in the league last year. CB is about last on our list of needs.

As to QB, you have us trading from 1 to 2 for nothing more than what amounts to a better return in a Fields trade, then from 2 to 13, passing on all the non-CW QBs, for a future 1 we end up trading to move up for JJ McCarthy at 32 (who btw almost certainly won’t be there at 32)? If Poles comes away from the 1st overall pick with QB4/5 in the draft plus a 2, 3 and a future 2 that would be an absolute catastrophe.

I like the rest though. 🤷‍♂️

Yeah I feel the whole concept of this draft falls down on the fact JJ is going comfortably in the top 15 picks.

[HuskieBear]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

Can’t see the Bears taking a CB in R1. JJ returns here and Tyrique Stevenson was one of the top rookie CBs in the league last year. CB is about last on our list of needs.

As to QB, you have us trading from 1 to 2 for nothing more than what amounts to a better return in a Fields trade, then from 2 to 13, passing on all the non-CW QBs, for a future 1 we end up trading to move up for JJ McCarthy at 32 (who btw almost certainly won’t be there at 32)? If Poles comes away from the 1st overall pick with QB4/5 in the draft plus a 2, 3 and a future 2 that would be an absolute catastrophe.

I like the rest though. 🤷‍♂️

also, why would we sign Russ for 2/50 AFTER drafting JJ?

[sparky151]

It would probably cost Washington more than the Bears 2nd this year plus their own next year to move up. They'd probably have to throw in their other 2nd rounder this year or make next year's pick their first rounder. Williams has value in DC beyond his football skills.

I doubt the Chiefs trade down that far. They have a number of needs and may well lose one of Jones or Sneed. It's likely better for the Bears that they don't make that deal. Stockpiling picks for 2025 to take a QB then instead of Nix or Penix seems the way to go if the Bears have Wilson signed for a couple of years. 

Wilson is probably the best non-Fields, non-rookie option. He's getting 39 mil from the Broncos this year (subject to offset) so he might play for vet minimum in 2024 if he likes the situation and has guarantees for future years. I could see him signing for 1 mil for 2024, 40 mil for 2025 guaranteed at signing, and 40 mil for 2026 which guarantees at an early date in the 2025 offseason. Maybe the Bears get a 20 mil buyout for 2025 if Russ doesn't cook this year. 

 

 

 

[Karnage84]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Can’t see the Bears taking a CB in R1. JJ returns here and Tyrique Stevenson was one of the top rookie CBs in the league last year. CB is about last on our list of needs.

I looked at PFF's "team needs" and they listed a CB for you guys. Good points on Stevenson.

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

As to QB, you have us trading from 1 to 2 for nothing more than what amounts to a better return in a Fields trade, then from 2 to 13, passing on all the non-CW QBs, for a future 1 we end up trading to move up for JJ McCarthy at 32 (who btw almost certainly won’t be there at 32)? If Poles comes away from the 1st overall pick with QB4/5 in the draft plus a 2, 3 and a future 2 that would be an absolute catastrophe.

Maybe you're going to be able to pull out an extra 1st in the Williams trade. Moving all the way down to 13 certainly does net some solid draft capital. 

You guys seem to be pretty high on McCarthy. PFF has him as a 2nd round guy and I've seen him all over the place. Whether it's McCarthy, Penix or someone else my point was that I don't believe Eberflus will want to risk his career as the Bears HC on starting a rookie QB, especially if they aren't Caleb. Trading down, getting extra picks, adding a QB later in the draft and having a veteran starter in place should get them into the 6-7 wins range. If you can get some upside then you move into the 9 wins. Eberflus is likely going to keep his job at 8-9 wins as opposed to going through the growing pains of a rookie QB where the ceiling is probably 5 or 6. 

[sparky151]

Bears had 3 excruciating losses last season with improbable 4th quarter collapses. So they weren't that far from 10-7 and the playoffs.

In your scenario where they sign Wilson and upgrade the supporting cast, they could very reasonably expect a playoff season, assuming Wilson plays well. 

 

 

[HuskieBear]

On 2/16/2024 at 5:27 PM, Karnage84 said:

I looked at PFF's "team needs" and they listed a CB for you guys. Good points on Stevenson.

I've seen that in a lot of places too - i think it has more with JJ being a free agent and team needs are possibly being built based on UFA not resigning with the team. but JJ likely stays either on the FT or a new deal, so CB drops a great deal in terms of needs

if we're leaving QB of the list, then i would say WR2/DE2/OC/TE2/FS/WR3/OT3 are higher on the list than CB - again, assuming JJ is on the team somehow next season

[dll2000]

We have number 1 pick in draft with a good prospect on the board and you want us to sign 35 yr old Russell Wilson who has played like mostly hot garbage for last two seasons? 

Pass.

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

We have number 1 pick in draft with a good prospect on the board and you want us to sign 35 yr old Russell Wilson who has played like mostly hot garbage for last two seasons? 

Pass.

But at least we’d have to pay him a lot of money too.

[Bigbear72]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

But at least we’d have to pay him a lot of money too.

Yeah, that's my favorite part.

[MonserinNC]

The Bears dont hate Justin Fields, its just that we have the option of Caleb....We arent just giving up on Justin for JJ McCarthy

[Karnage84]

22 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

But at least we’d have to pay him a lot of money too.

There's discussions on how the Broncos are on the hook for him for $37M and that he could be had for a fairly cheap deal. Some are quoting $1M which sounds ridiculous but maybe you're looking at $10M.