Styrian Raider's mock draft

[Styrian Raider]

Okay let's have a try:

With this mock draft I'll let you know my thoughts on how I think what we could do in the draft.
Before I post the players I draft, I would like to point out, that I didn't do a deep dive
on the whole draft class and neither have I seen hundreds of college games to build on.
I chose prospects via scouting reports and targeted rather positions/areas where I think we should improve.

I used the simulator of profootballnetwork, because afaik it's the only one where the AI also makes drafts
and makes imho more realistic.

Round 1 - #13 - TRADE with the Eagles

With #13 I would've targeted a QB but QBs 1-4 were gone in this simulation and I didn't want to take Nix or Penix with pick #13.
That left me with the question should I target a CB or a RT.
For me CB is not a glaring need. We have Jack Jones, Nate Hobbs, Brandon Facyson and Jakorian Bennett.
At RT we only have Munford right now, so RT is the position to go in round 1 for me.

Available are JC Latham,Taliesa Fuaga, Amarius Mims and Tyler Guyton.
But there are also some trade options available:
Trading down a few spots for an additional 2nd round pick and still getting a starting RT sounded too good to refuse.

So I traded #13 (CB Terion Arnold) along with #229 (LB Omar Speights) for #22 & #50

Round 1 - #22 OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)

Fuaga and Latham were gone at #22 so I took the next best T with Amarius Mims.
He is still seen as a project, but I think with our new OL-Coach and having Munford still there
we have to take the physically gifted RT.

 

Round 2 - #44 QB Michael Penix Jr (Washington)

Both Nix and Penix were available at this spot and it was clear for me that now we have to take the QBotF.
I decided to go with Penix, because I think he fits better to Getsy's system, but I wouldn't mind taking
Nix at this spot either.

 

Round 2 - #50 DT T'Vondre Sweat (Texas)

With the additional 2nd rounder from the Eagles I added DT T'Vondre Sweat to finish the revamp of our D-Line.
My thoughts were "why not making a strength out of a decade long weakness".
Sweat can be a rotational peace and learn behind Jenkins and Butler.
Along with Wilkins, Maxx, Koonce and Wilson this would be a terrific D-Line.

 

Round 3 - #77 LB Payton Wilson (NC State)

With the D-Line set with the pick before I chose to take a LB with our 3rd round pick.
Edgerrin Cooper(#54) and Junior Colson(#69) gone I took Wilson to compete with Deablo.
I don't think that we had a depth problem here last season, but the fall off was just to big imho.
So Wilson gives lifts up the quality of our LB depth.

 

Round 4 - #112 RB Jaylen Wright (Tennessee)

This spot was somehow a tough spot to choose.
I was thinking to add S Jaden Hicks here or maybe G Mason McCormick but
finally ended up taking RB Jalen Wright.
With Jacobs gone I think we have to add another RB in the draft, although we signed Mattison.
With Zeus, Mattison, Wright and Abdullah i think we have a good committee of RBs

 

Round 5 - #148 TE Jared Wiley (TCU)

This was my spot for a WR in this draft. But my favourite in that spot Luke McCaffrey was gone
and I wanted a rather bigger receiver.
So I took a pass-catching TE with Jared Wiley to bulk up our TE room.

 

Round 6 - #208 CB DeCamerion Richardson (Mississippi State)

CB wasn't a big need for me, with the loss of Amik Robertson I thought we could need some depth there.
And I tokk the one that showed some atleticism on the combine.

 
Round 7 - #223 S Dominique Hampton (Washington)

Another athlete from the Combine who I think could be another depth piece for our roster.

 

 

 

[NCOUGHMAN]

I like it but don’t think the qbs last till #44 hate to say it but gotta get the qb in the 1st unless you want the ratt I know the mock systems are dropping bo and Mike but I can’t see it especially with minn joining the rush.

[Dessie]

4 hours ago, Styrian Raider said:

Okay let's have a try:

With this mock draft I'll let you know my thoughts on how I think what we could do in the draft.
Before I post the players I draft, I would like to point out, that I didn't do a deep dive
on the whole draft class and neither have I seen hundreds of college games to build on.
I chose prospects via scouting reports and targeted rather positions/areas where I think we should improve.

I used the simulator of profootballnetwork, because afaik it's the only one where the AI also makes drafts
and makes imho more realistic.

Round 1 - #13 - TRADE with the Eagles

With #13 I would've targeted a QB but QBs 1-4 were gone in this simulation and I didn't want to take Nix or Penix with pick #13.
That left me with the question should I target a CB or a RT.
For me CB is not a glaring need. We have Jack Jones, Nate Hobbs, Brandon Facyson and Jakorian Bennett.
At RT we only have Munford right now, so RT is the position to go in round 1 for me.

Available are JC Latham,Taliesa Fuaga, Amarius Mims and Tyler Guyton.
But there are also some trade options available:
Trading down a few spots for an additional 2nd round pick and still getting a starting RT sounded too good to refuse.

So I traded #13 (CB Terion Arnold) along with #229 (LB Omar Speights) for #22 & #50

Round 1 - #22 OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)

Fuaga and Latham were gone at #22 so I took the next best T with Amarius Mims.
He is still seen as a project, but I think with our new OL-Coach and having Munford still there
we have to take the physically gifted RT.

 

Round 2 - #44 QB Michael Penix Jr (Washington)

Both Nix and Penix were available at this spot and it was clear for me that now we have to take the QBotF.
I decided to go with Penix, because I think he fits better to Getsy's system, but I wouldn't mind taking
Nix at this spot either.

 

Round 2 - #50 DT T'Vondre Sweat (Texas)

With the additional 2nd rounder from the Eagles I added DT T'Vondre Sweat to finish the revamp of our D-Line.
My thoughts were "why not making a strength out of a decade long weakness".
Sweat can be a rotational peace and learn behind Jenkins and Butler.
Along with Wilkins, Maxx, Koonce and Wilson this would be a terrific D-Line.

 

Round 3 - #77 LB Payton Wilson (NC State)

With the D-Line set with the pick before I chose to take a LB with our 3rd round pick.
Edgerrin Cooper(#54) and Junior Colson(#69) gone I took Wilson to compete with Deablo.
I don't think that we had a depth problem here last season, but the fall off was just to big imho.
So Wilson gives lifts up the quality of our LB depth.

 

Round 4 - #112 RB Jaylen Wright (Tennessee)

This spot was somehow a tough spot to choose.
I was thinking to add S Jaden Hicks here or maybe G Mason McCormick but
finally ended up taking RB Jalen Wright.
With Jacobs gone I think we have to add another RB in the draft, although we signed Mattison.
With Zeus, Mattison, Wright and Abdullah i think we have a good committee of RBs

 

Round 5 - #148 TE Jared Wiley (TCU)

This was my spot for a WR in this draft. But my favourite in that spot Luke McCaffrey was gone
and I wanted a rather bigger receiver.
So I took a pass-catching TE with Jared Wiley to bulk up our TE room.

 

Round 6 - #208 CB DeCamerion Richardson (Mississippi State)

CB wasn't a big need for me, with the loss of Amik Robertson I thought we could need some depth there.
And I tokk the one that showed some atleticism on the combine.

 
Round 7 - #223 S Dominique Hampton (Washington)

Another athlete from the Combine who I think could be another depth piece for our roster.

 

 

 

I like this especially the first 4 picks. Would prefer to pickup some OL so McCormick would have been my pick. But solid mock imo. Not sure on the later rounds as not heard of them tbh. 

[Styrian Raider]

9 minutes ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

I like it but don’t think the qbs last till #44 hate to say it but gotta get the qb in the 1st unless you want the ratt I know the mock systems are dropping bo and Mike but I can’t see it especially with minn joining the rush.

Yeah Minnesota will absolutely trade up to 4 and pick Daniels or McCarthy.
We also might have to trade up for either Nix or Penix, depending on what the Broncos plan to do and which one of those we would prefer.

[NCOUGHMAN]

3 minutes ago, Styrian Raider said:

Yeah Minnesota will absolutely trade up to 4 and pick Daniels or McCarthy.
We also might have to trade up for either Nix or Penix, depending on what the Broncos plan to do and which one of those we would prefer.

I think the big 3 a already solid gone

minn trades up for McCarthy 

den takes nix

we can f around and find ratt left at the table in round 2

[Darbsk]

If we can get a QB at #44 that would be really nice. Love the first few picks but like others, unsure whether Nix and Penix will be there - you never know though so can’t really knock that.

To come away with Penix plus Sweat and Mims is top notch, though like you, I prefer Fuaga and Latham. The only real gripe I’d have is I’d like to see an OG drafted and I’d always draft a DE, they’re just so valuable in a rotation.

[Styrian Raider]

11 hours ago, Darbsk said:

If we can get a QB at #44 that would be really nice. Love the first few picks but like others, unsure whether Nix and Penix will be there - you never know though so can’t really knock that.

We also thought that Levis will go in the first round.

I think the top 4 QBs are gone with the first four picks (Vikings trading up to 4).
The Broncos might take Nix right before us.
But who is likely to take Penix, after us?

Saints, Colts?
Seahawks? Maybe, but not in the first round and in the 2nd they have to trade up.
Jags, Bengals, Rams? No.
Steelers? Maybe. But personally I think, when you bring in Russel Wilson and trade for Justin Fields you don't use your first round pick for a QB.
Dolphins, Eagles, Cards, Cowboys, Packers? No.
Bucs? Maybe - But they also gave Baker a 100 Million $ contract, so i don't know if they would take Penix in the first round they have other priorities
Then we have Bills, Lions, Ravens, Niners and the Chiefs who I also think have other intentions.

2nd Round
Panthers? Won't give up on Bryce Young that soon.
And then there are a bunch of teams that picked their QBOTF already in the first or having one in place until we are on the clock.

Only the giants may jump ahead of us.

 

12 hours ago, Darbsk said:

The only real gripe I’d have is I’d like to see an OG drafted and I’d always draft a DE, they’re just so valuable in a rotation.

I looked at the screenshots I took and the guards who I would've considered were either gone (Cooper Beebe) or I just took an more urgent need
#77 Wilson over Mahogany | #148 over McCormick
Maybe in Round 5 I could've taken one - there were a few available LaDarius Henderson, Sataoa Laumea, Isaiah Adams, Dylan McMahon

And EDGE I really didn't take a close look on any prospect. I think I have 3 prospect that I would take if just based on the RAS if I wouldn't had other holes to fill
Marshawn Kneeland, Jalyx Hunt and Gabriel Murphy.
The latter one would've been available with our last pick in my simulation.

[Darbsk]

44 minutes ago, Styrian Raider said:

We also thought that Levis will go in the first round.

I think the top 4 QBs are gone with the first four picks (Vikings trading up to 4).
The Broncos might take Nix right before us.
But who is likely to take Penix, after us?

Saints, Colts?
Seahawks? Maybe, but not in the first round and in the 2nd they have to trade up.
Jags, Bengals, Rams? No.
Steelers? Maybe. But personally I think, when you bring in Russel Wilson and trade for Justin Fields you don't use your first round pick for a QB.
Dolphins, Eagles, Cards, Cowboys, Packers? No.
Bucs? Maybe - But they also gave Baker a 100 Million $ contract, so i don't know if they would take Penix in the first round they have other priorities
Then we have Bills, Lions, Ravens, Niners and the Chiefs who I also think have other intentions.

2nd Round
Panthers? Won't give up on Bryce Young that soon.
And then there are a bunch of teams that picked their QBOTF already in the first or having one in place until we are on the clock.

Only the giants may jump ahead of us.

 

I looked at the screenshots I took and the guards who I would've considered were either gone (Cooper Beebe) or I just took an more urgent need
#77 Wilson over Mahogany | #148 over McCormick
Maybe in Round 5 I could've taken one - there were a few available LaDarius Henderson, Sataoa Laumea, Isaiah Adams, Dylan McMahon

And EDGE I really didn't take a close look on any prospect. I think I have 3 prospect that I would take if just based on the RAS if I wouldn't had other holes to fill
Marshawn Kneeland, Jalyx Hunt and Gabriel Murphy.
The latter one would've been available with our last pick in my simulation.

I can absolutely see that, every year a player or two go way higher than thought and a few players drop way down so that is absolutely possible and I’d be delighted with that.

You simply have to play the board that you’re dealt with in the draft and whilst I’d like an OG and a development DE if the board doesn’t fall that way, then you’re right to take the prospects you think are better, we obviously don’t see who goes where and understand that, I’m not one who thinks we have that big of a need at LB but if there’s no suitable players at OG or DE then fair enough 😀👍🏼

[ronjon1990]

23 hours ago, Styrian Raider said:

Okay let's have a try:

With this mock draft I'll let you know my thoughts on how I think what we could do in the draft.
Before I post the players I draft, I would like to point out, that I didn't do a deep dive
on the whole draft class and neither have I seen hundreds of college games to build on.
I chose prospects via scouting reports and targeted rather positions/areas where I think we should improve.

I used the simulator of profootballnetwork, because afaik it's the only one where the AI also makes drafts
and makes imho more realistic.

Round 1 - #13 - TRADE with the Eagles

With #13 I would've targeted a QB but QBs 1-4 were gone in this simulation and I didn't want to take Nix or Penix with pick #13.
That left me with the question should I target a CB or a RT.
For me CB is not a glaring need. We have Jack Jones, Nate Hobbs, Brandon Facyson and Jakorian Bennett.
At RT we only have Munford right now, so RT is the position to go in round 1 for me.

Available are JC Latham,Taliesa Fuaga, Amarius Mims and Tyler Guyton.
But there are also some trade options available:
Trading down a few spots for an additional 2nd round pick and still getting a starting RT sounded too good to refuse.

So I traded #13 (CB Terion Arnold) along with #229 (LB Omar Speights) for #22 & #50

Round 1 - #22 OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)

Fuaga and Latham were gone at #22 so I took the next best T with Amarius Mims.
He is still seen as a project, but I think with our new OL-Coach and having Munford still there
we have to take the physically gifted RT.

 

Round 2 - #44 QB Michael Penix Jr (Washington)

Both Nix and Penix were available at this spot and it was clear for me that now we have to take the QBotF.
I decided to go with Penix, because I think he fits better to Getsy's system, but I wouldn't mind taking
Nix at this spot either.

 

Round 2 - #50 DT T'Vondre Sweat (Texas)

With the additional 2nd rounder from the Eagles I added DT T'Vondre Sweat to finish the revamp of our D-Line.
My thoughts were "why not making a strength out of a decade long weakness".
Sweat can be a rotational peace and learn behind Jenkins and Butler.
Along with Wilkins, Maxx, Koonce and Wilson this would be a terrific D-Line.

 

Round 3 - #77 LB Payton Wilson (NC State)

With the D-Line set with the pick before I chose to take a LB with our 3rd round pick.
Edgerrin Cooper(#54) and Junior Colson(#69) gone I took Wilson to compete with Deablo.
I don't think that we had a depth problem here last season, but the fall off was just to big imho.
So Wilson gives lifts up the quality of our LB depth.

 

Round 4 - #112 RB Jaylen Wright (Tennessee)

This spot was somehow a tough spot to choose.
I was thinking to add S Jaden Hicks here or maybe G Mason McCormick but
finally ended up taking RB Jalen Wright.
With Jacobs gone I think we have to add another RB in the draft, although we signed Mattison.
With Zeus, Mattison, Wright and Abdullah i think we have a good committee of RBs

 

Round 5 - #148 TE Jared Wiley (TCU)

This was my spot for a WR in this draft. But my favourite in that spot Luke McCaffrey was gone
and I wanted a rather bigger receiver.
So I took a pass-catching TE with Jared Wiley to bulk up our TE room.

 

Round 6 - #208 CB DeCamerion Richardson (Mississippi State)

CB wasn't a big need for me, with the loss of Amik Robertson I thought we could need some depth there.
And I tokk the one that showed some atleticism on the combine.

 
Round 7 - #223 S Dominique Hampton (Washington)

Another athlete from the Combine who I think could be another depth piece for our roster.

 

 

 

Love the trade down and first 4 picks. 

INit a huge fan of the Wright or Wiley picks though, as neither position has much of interest to me in the class in general. So I'm not entirely unbiased. That said, it's not my only logic there. 

With 112, I'd go CB as a pretty decent one should still be on the board. A guy like King or Dixon from Penn St or Jackson from Oregon, imo, would be higher on the depth chart at CB than Wright would at RB. A RB would essentially be 3rd behind White and Mattison, and that's not counting Abdullah who isn't a slouch. If we found a stud RB we were comfortable starting over those guys, go for it. Wright just isn't that caliber, imo. Meanwhile, our CB depth is just bad right now. Take a guy you're pretty sure you can afford to start or have as an immediate backup to Jones, Hobbs, and TBD. 

At 148, I'm looking hard at OG again. Maybe  Zak Zinter, who likely redshirt, or Javion Cohen. That said, both could have been gone in your draft anyway. Absent an OG, I'd explore an OT to switch to OG or I'd strongly consider double dipping at LB. 

Round 6 and 7, go with BPA. 

Overall I'd be happy just based on the first 4. I think we definitely have differing opinions on the level of need for CB though. 

[Styrian Raider]

7 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Love the trade down and first 4 picks. 

INit a huge fan of the Wright or Wiley picks though, as neither position has much of interest to me in the class in general. So I'm not entirely unbiased. That said, it's not my only logic there. 

With 112, I'd go CB as a pretty decent one should still be on the board. A guy like King or Dixon from Penn St or Jackson from Oregon, imo, would be higher on the depth chart at CB than Wright would at RB. A RB would essentially be 3rd behind White and Mattison, and that's not counting Abdullah who isn't a slouch. If we found a stud RB we were comfortable starting over those guys, go for it. Wright just isn't that caliber, imo. Meanwhile, our CB depth is just bad right now. Take a guy you're pretty sure you can afford to start or have as an immediate backup to Jones, Hobbs, and TBD. 

At 148, I'm looking hard at OG again. Maybe  Zak Zinter, who likely redshirt, or Javion Cohen. That said, both could have been gone in your draft anyway. Absent an OG, I'd explore an OT to switch to OG or I'd strongly consider double dipping at LB. 

Round 6 and 7, go with BPA. 

Overall I'd be happy just based on the first 4. I think we definitely have differing opinions on the level of need for CB though. 

At #112 Kalen King was already gone.
But Josh Newton, Khyree Jackson, Johnny Dixon, Chau Smith-Wade went all later in the 4th in my simulation.

at 148 Zinter was already gone, Cohen was picked right before us from the Broncos.
But yeah like above already mentioned there were plenty of OGs available aswell as some OTs like Matt Goncalves, Christian Jones, Javon Foster

[ronjon1990]

1 hour ago, Styrian Raider said:

We also thought that Levis will go in the first round.

I think the top 4 QBs are gone with the first four picks (Vikings trading up to 4).
The Broncos might take Nix right before us.
But who is likely to take Penix, after us?

Saints, Colts?
Seahawks? Maybe, but not in the first round and in the 2nd they have to trade up.
Jags, Bengals, Rams? No.
Steelers? Maybe. But personally I think, when you bring in Russel Wilson and trade for Justin Fields you don't use your first round pick for a QB.
Dolphins, Eagles, Cards, Cowboys, Packers? No.
Bucs? Maybe - But they also gave Baker a 100 Million $ contract, so i don't know if they would take Penix in the first round they have other priorities
Then we have Bills, Lions, Ravens, Niners and the Chiefs who I also think have other intentions.

2nd Round
Panthers? Won't give up on Bryce Young that soon.
And then there are a bunch of teams that picked their QBOTF already in the first or having one in place until we are on the clock.

Only the giants may jump ahead of us.

The teams that would scare me for waiting on Penix:

Rams in a trade down or up. Unlikely though.

Arizona terrifies me. I don't think they're sold on Murray anymore amd could conceivably move him sooner than later. They own 4, 27, and 35 at present and could wind up with picks to spare on him. 

Washington. Again, unlikely as they're in position for a top 2. But still, they own 2, 36, 40. Stranger things have happened. 

Atlanta is my biggest fear. Who knows what they do at 8, but we all know Kirk isn't a long term option. They hold 44. Would they grab him knowing he'd be like 26-27 before he actually starts? I doubt it, but you never know. 

 

I think New Orleans and NYG are off the table. Everyone else should have their guy in place. 

Except Seattle. They could trade down. 

I think Penix's availability at 44 is heavily dependent on who moves around I the 1st regardless. If everyone gets their 1st round QB as assumed, I think the competition for Penix becomes Atlanta, Arizona, or if Seattle trades down. 

Edited March 22 by ronjon1990

[Styrian Raider]

45 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

The teams that would scare me for waiting on Penix:

Rams in a trade down or up. Unlikely though.

Arizona terrifies me. I don't think they're sold on Murray anymore amd could conceivably move him sooner than later. They own 4, 27, and 35 at present and could wind up with picks to spare on him. 

Washington. Again, unlikely as they're in position for a top 2. But still, they own 2, 36, 40. Stranger things have happened. 

Atlanta is my biggest fear. Who knows what they do at 8, but we all know Kirk isn't a long term option. They hold 44. Would they grab him knowing he'd be like 26-27 before he actually starts? I doubt it, but you never know. 

 

I think New Orleans and NYG are off the table. Every9ne else should have their guybin place. 

Except Seattle. They could trade down. 

I think Penix's availability at 44 is heavily dependent on who moves around I the 1st regardless. If everyone gets their 1st round QB as assumed, I think the competition for Penix becomes Atlanta, Arizona, or if Seattle trades down. 

Nah I don't think that Atlanta is in the mix for Penix.
Especially when you give Cousins a $180 million 4 year contract, you don't draft a QB in this upcoming draft in rounds 1 or 2.

Arizona, could indeed be done with Kyler, but they also gave him a massive contract.
I'm not sure if they really are ready to move on right now - maybe rather within the next two years.

 

[NCOUGHMAN]

4 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

The teams that would scare me for waiting on Penix:

Rams in a trade down or up. Unlikely though.

Arizona terrifies me. I don't think they're sold on Murray anymore amd could conceivably move him sooner than later. They own 4, 27, and 35 at present and could wind up with picks to spare on him. 

Washington. Again, unlikely as they're in position for a top 2. But still, they own 2, 36, 40. Stranger things have happened. 

Atlanta is my biggest fear. Who knows what they do at 8, but we all know Kirk isn't a long term option. They hold 44. Would they grab him knowing he'd be like 26-27 before he actually starts? I doubt it, but you never know. 

 

I think New Orleans and NYG are off the table. Everyone else should have their guy in place. 

Except Seattle. They could trade down. 

I think Penix's availability at 44 is heavily dependent on who moves around I the 1st regardless. If everyone gets their 1st round QB as assumed, I think the competition for Penix becomes Atlanta, Arizona, or if Seattle trades down. 

Supposedly nyg is keying in on jj now

[ronjon1990]

3 hours ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

Supposedly nyg is keying in on jj now

I just have a really hard time believing they're players in the QB market with Jones and then signing Lock (supposedly with a chance to start). 

That said, if they lull a fast one and convince someone to take Jones via trade dealings, all bets are obviously off. 

[ronjon1990]

7 hours ago, Styrian Raider said:

Nah I don't think that Atlanta is in the mix for Penix.
Especially when you give Cousins a $180 million 4 year contract, you don't draft a QB in this upcoming draft in rounds 1 or 2.

Arizona, could indeed be done with Kyler, but they also gave him a massive contract.
I'm not sure if they really are ready to move on right now - maybe rather within the next two years.

 

I gotta disagree on Atlanta, at least slightly. I don't think they hand that contract out unless they think Cousins makes them contenders now. Insurance policy? I mean, I could see them rolling with Heinicke of Cousins were to go down, so I suppose it depends on how they and anyone else feels about Heinicke in a starting role with big expectations (and, frankly, he's done fine under those circumstances before so....). 

To be blunt, I do think Cousins' contract and Penix's age aren't a match to start with. You certainly don't give Kirk that deal and not expect at least 3 years as the starter, which renders a 24/25 year old rookie sorta pointless. 

But what about at 8? Say hell freezes over and one of  Daniels or McCarthy is there. Does Atlanta pull it and gonthe sit and learn route (which would probably be best for JJ if we're being totally honest). If so, that has the potential to upset the balance of who is actively in the running for Nix and Penix. 

The more I think about it, the more I say "If you think Penix or Nix are the guy and are there at 13, take it, and to hell with the board.". I would prefer a stud elsewhere and Penix in round 2 or a trade up, or, a trade down and stack picks while getting him a bit earlier but not as early.

But preference isnt something reality often cares about. It only takes 1 surprise QB selection to put us in a huge bind, both for this year and down the road as Telesco and Pierce still have expectations to meet and if we're in a top spot for a QB next year, something has to have gone wrong and someone will be feeling the heat if not gone.