Most Over-Rated/Risky Prospects and Most Under-Rated Prospects

[Just Want A Title]

I thought it would be interesting to see who we see and over-rated prospects and under-rated prospects headed into the draft.  That said:

Over-Rated and/or Risky:

Amarius Mims:  If Jack Reacher played OT he would look like Amarius Mims.  However, his inexperience along with his nagging injuries make him a bit of a risk and could push him back in the the draft

Tyler Guyton:  He has really good movement and athletic skills but is a lot more raw than is generally being discussed by media pundits.  He hasn't shown great run-blocking skills but is much better in pass protection.

Chop Robinson:  He is really fast but very linear with short arms.  His lack of production in college is concerning.  It is hard for me to see him as a first-round talent

Tanor Bortolini:  He seems to be rising based on his workout numbers but he seems more like a developmental IOL rather than an impact player

Under-Rated:

Max Melton:  He was graded as one of the best CBs in the 2022 draft, went back to school and had a better season in 2023.  His combine put a lot of media folks on-notice.  I read some folks pegging him as a slot CB and it doesn't make much sense to me.  He seems like a high-ceiling CB that could be rated higher by NFL folks than media pundits

Cole Bishop:  He had a ton of production in college and tested pretty well.  He is a bit short-armed but still manages to make plays all over the field.

Ruke Orhorhoro:  His strictly a 3-T DT but could excel as a 5T DE.  He seems like a prospect who has a higher floor than what is being projected

Khyree Jackson:  I am skeptical about big CBs but he might be able to stick.  He has only started one year after transferring from Alabama.  He has rare height and length.  His 10-yard split was one of the fastest at his position group.  If he shows adequate fluidity and hip flexibility, he is going to be a menace as a boundary CB.  

Who do you think fits into these categories?  Thoughts?

 

[Sllim Pickens]

Overrated Prospects - I will focus on Lions targets instead of in general so will not focus on Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.

Amarius Mims - I agree he is not a 1st round pick.  I feel like being at Georgia has boosted some guys draft profiles and he is one of them.  He has such a small sample size (800 career snaps with no more than 385 in a single season) so his draft ranking is primarily due to his athletic ability.  He has a lot of the measurables of a successful NFL OT.  I don't think he is vastly overrated but enough where I don't think I want him in the first round.  

Tyler Guyton - Similarly, Guyton is an athletic marvel but has no production and is too raw technique wise.  I think if he is drafted by us it would have to be as a guard with the expectation he won't play this year.  I like to have a little better production out of my first round picks.  

Darius Robinson - I was high on him for a minute but losing steam.  He doesn't have elite production and doesn't have elite measurables.  He looks good on tape when I have watched him but not sure how he will translate.  I think if he is the pick in round 1, we will be disappointed due to lack of sack production.  He likely would be a step up from Cominsky but not sure he is enough to spend a 1st on. 

Xavier Worthy - He is fast but not a great WR.  Definitely one I would stay away from before the fourth round. 

Keon Coleman - I get speed isn't everything, but it is important.  I think he will be a solid WR in the pro's, but don't think he will reach the heights people expect.  He would be a solid 2nd/early 3rd round pick but most have him top 40. 

Ennis Rakestraw - Awful in man, solid in zone which is fine for our system but not someone I would take in the first.  

Johnny Wilson - Another WR that I loved given his size but don't think he is much more than size.  Would pass on him unless its in the 5th/6th. 

 

Under Rated prospects: 

Koolaid McKinstry - He has dropped and now probably will rise again after the pro day but I think he is the second best CB in this draft behind Mitchell. 

Zach Frazier - I think he is a day one starter at OG or C and should be higher on boards.  I don't see a huge gap between he and Powers-Jonson. 

Tyler Nubin - He was the top S in college this year and he has the athleticism to be a great pro.  90 coverage grade, 5 INTs, 39.9 passer rating against, only allowed 44 yards and 5 catches on 19 targets in 2023.  I wouldn't be shocked if he is the pick at the end of the first or if he goes top 20 to someone else.  He had a rough combine likely due to recovering from knee surgery but on the field he looks the part.  

Brenden Rice - I think he will be this years Rashee Rice.  If he lands in a spot like Detroit where he can fill the Reynolds role, he will be succesful.  Great routes, hands and athleticism.

Javon Foster - Has had elite run blocking grades and very good pass blocking grades.  Seems like a great target with our 2nd/3rd to develop behind Decker. 

Malik Mustapha - A super athlete at S who likes to hit.  Would be a great box S and allow Kerby to hang back and play CF which is what he does best.  Likely a backup to Iffy this year but depending on his growth would impact the need to retain Iffy. 

Kitan Oladapo - He had a rough combine but 40 and 10 yard splits rarely correlate to success at S.  Oladapo has had high coverage and run D grades from PFF the last three years, has good size at 6'1, 215 lbs, and had a passer rating against of 61.  He is currently in the 150 range of boards but I think he will rise to the third.  

Gabriel Murphy - He was lighter than expected at the combine but could fill that Harris/Okwara role.  He has lived in backfields with 40 and 35 hurries the last two years.  He played with Liatu Latu which I am sure helps but he took advantage of it and hopefully could do the same with Hutch on the other side. 

Dwight McGlothern - He had limited snaps this year but even based on previous years he should be higher.  His 91.3 PFF grade with a 90.4 in zone and a 80.3 in man makes him a great fit for our defense.  At 6'2", 190 having a 4.47 forty and 1.50 10 yard split are solid and make me think he is a mid round target.  

Kamal Haden - Another CB who has great size but limited snaps.  This year he gave up a passer rating of 7 in nearly 200 coverage snaps.  definitely better in zone than man but elite in zone last year.   Would be a flier but think he should go higher than his 230 consensus big board ranking. 

Khristian Boyd - A big DT that has pass rushing ability and great strength (38 reps at his pro day).  Currently ranked 209 on the consensus big board and should be much higher but likely getting small school treatment.  

Evan Anderson - A monster NT at 350lbs but showed some pass rushing ability with 5 sacks this year.  Currently ranked as an UDFA but wouldn't be shocked if he is a late round pick to backup Reader/compete with Martin.  

[Karnage84]

25 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Darius Robinson - I was high on him for a minute but losing steam.  He doesn't have elite production and doesn't have elite measurables.  He looks good on tape when I have watched him but not sure how he will translate.  I think if he is the pick in round 1, we will be disappointed due to lack of sack production.  He likely would be a step up from Cominsky but not sure he is enough to spend a 1st on. 

He's that tweener guy that is going to have a difficult time living up to the hype. Agree, if he is overdrafted he is going to be a major disappointment. I can see him being drafted late 30's - mid-40's and being a decent value. Anything above that and it's a major overpay. 

 

27 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Johnny Wilson - Another WR that I loved given his size but don't think he is much more than size.  Would pass on him unless its in the 5th/6th.

He's probably going to have to switch over to TE given his size and he doesn't have the blocking skills. Maybe he turns into Evan Engram - if he does, you need to get him at the right value as a receiving TE only. 

 

[detfan782004]

I was going to say entering draft JJ McCarthy was underrated but that course has changed.

 

I will list one underrated and overrated.

Underrated- LB- Jackson Mitchell - UCONN

I just think he can do it all at next level 

 

Overrated- Koolaide.

Just don't think he's a NFL corner. If he was being rated as a safety I would see it more. 
 

Think he's early to mid second round CB 

[Just Want A Title]

2 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Overrated Prospects - I will focus on Lions targets instead of in general so will not focus on Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.

Amarius Mims - I agree he is not a 1st round pick.  I feel like being at Georgia has boosted some guys draft profiles and he is one of them.  He has such a small sample size (800 career snaps with no more than 385 in a single season) so his draft ranking is primarily due to his athletic ability.  He has a lot of the measurables of a successful NFL OT.  I don't think he is vastly overrated but enough where I don't think I want him in the first round.  

Tyler Guyton - Similarly, Guyton is an athletic marvel but has no production and is too raw technique wise.  I think if he is drafted by us it would have to be as a guard with the expectation he won't play this year.  I like to have a little better production out of my first round picks.  

Darius Robinson - I was high on him for a minute but losing steam.  He doesn't have elite production and doesn't have elite measurables.  He looks good on tape when I have watched him but not sure how he will translate.  I think if he is the pick in round 1, we will be disappointed due to lack of sack production.  He likely would be a step up from Cominsky but not sure he is enough to spend a 1st on. 

Xavier Worthy - He is fast but not a great WR.  Definitely one I would stay away from before the fourth round. 

Keon Coleman - I get speed isn't everything, but it is important.  I think he will be a solid WR in the pro's, but don't think he will reach the heights people expect.  He would be a solid 2nd/early 3rd round pick but most have him top 40. 

Ennis Rakestraw - Awful in man, solid in zone which is fine for our system but not someone I would take in the first.  

Johnny Wilson - Another WR that I loved given his size but don't think he is much more than size.  Would pass on him unless its in the 5th/6th. 

 

Under Rated prospects: 

Koolaid McKinstry - He has dropped and now probably will rise again after the pro day but I think he is the second best CB in this draft behind Mitchell. 

Zach Frazier - I think he is a day one starter at OG or C and should be higher on boards.  I don't see a huge gap between he and Powers-Jonson. 

Tyler Nubin - He was the top S in college this year and he has the athleticism to be a great pro.  90 coverage grade, 5 INTs, 39.9 passer rating against, only allowed 44 yards and 5 catches on 19 targets in 2023.  I wouldn't be shocked if he is the pick at the end of the first or if he goes top 20 to someone else.  He had a rough combine likely due to recovering from knee surgery but on the field he looks the part.  

Brenden Rice - I think he will be this years Rashee Rice.  If he lands in a spot like Detroit where he can fill the Reynolds role, he will be succesful.  Great routes, hands and athleticism.

Javon Foster - Has had elite run blocking grades and very good pass blocking grades.  Seems like a great target with our 2nd/3rd to develop behind Decker. 

Malik Mustapha - A super athlete at S who likes to hit.  Would be a great box S and allow Kerby to hang back and play CF which is what he does best.  Likely a backup to Iffy this year but depending on his growth would impact the need to retain Iffy. 

Kitan Oladapo - He had a rough combine but 40 and 10 yard splits rarely correlate to success at S.  Oladapo has had high coverage and run D grades from PFF the last three years, has good size at 6'1, 215 lbs, and had a passer rating against of 61.  He is currently in the 150 range of boards but I think he will rise to the third.  

Gabriel Murphy - He was lighter than expected at the combine but could fill that Harris/Okwara role.  He has lived in backfields with 40 and 35 hurries the last two years.  He played with Liatu Latu which I am sure helps but he took advantage of it and hopefully could do the same with Hutch on the other side. 

Dwight McGlothern - He had limited snaps this year but even based on previous years he should be higher.  His 91.3 PFF grade with a 90.4 in zone and a 80.3 in man makes him a great fit for our defense.  At 6'2", 190 having a 4.47 forty and 1.50 10 yard split are solid and make me think he is a mid round target.  

Kamal Haden - Another CB who has great size but limited snaps.  This year he gave up a passer rating of 7 in nearly 200 coverage snaps.  definitely better in zone than man but elite in zone last year.   Would be a flier but think he should go higher than his 230 consensus big board ranking. 

Khristian Boyd - A big DT that has pass rushing ability and great strength (38 reps at his pro day).  Currently ranked 209 on the consensus big board and should be much higher but likely getting small school treatment.  

Evan Anderson - A monster NT at 350lbs but showed some pass rushing ability with 5 sacks this year.  Currently ranked as an UDFA but wouldn't be shocked if he is a late round pick to backup Reader/compete with Martin.  

I am with you on Ennis Rakestraw.  I am not sure how he is seen as a better prospect than Max Melton.

[detfan782004]

2 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

He's that tweener guy that is going to have a difficult time living up to the hype. Agree, if he is overdrafted he is going to be a major disappointment. I can see him being drafted late 30's - mid-40's and being a decent value. Anything above that and it's a major overpay. 

 

He's probably going to have to switch over to TE given his size and he doesn't have the blocking skills. Maybe he turns into Evan Engram - if he does, you need to get him at the right value as a receiving TE only. 

 

You really think Wilson moves to TE? 

[Karnage84]

2 hours ago, detfan782004 said:

You really think Wilson moves to TE? 

There aren't a ton of guys his size that have been successful at the NFL level. Brandon Marshall is the closest comp that I can see for him for a known commodity.

He wasn't all that productive at Florida State. Keon Coleman entered the mix and took away targets.. sure... Coleman had 11 TD's to Wilson's 2. Despite being an absolute monster of a human being. 

Justin Shorter was taken last year in the 5th round by the Bills. Elijah Higgins was a 6th round pick and converted to TE. 

DK Metcalf and Calvin Johnson could compare size wise but both are absolute freak athletes. 

[Karnage84]

20 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Darius Robinson - I was high on him for a minute but losing steam.  He doesn't have elite production and doesn't have elite measurables.  He looks good on tape when I have watched him but not sure how he will translate.  I think if he is the pick in round 1, we will be disappointed due to lack of sack production.  He likely would be a step up from Cominsky but not sure he is enough to spend a 1st on. 

I am starting to come around on Robinson. I'm watching more of his tape and looking at his production. Nearly 14.5% pressure rate ad 3.10% sack rate (9 sacks, 42 pressures). 

[Just Want A Title]

12 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I am starting to come around on Robinson. I'm watching more of his tape and looking at his production. Nearly 14.5% pressure rate ad 3.10% sack rate (9 sacks, 42 pressures). 

I think if he is on the board at 29 he should be the pick.  He would complete our D-Line.  This draft is pretty deep at CB so getting a good CB at 61 or 73 is definitely possible.  The interesting thing to consider is how other GMs would evaluate him and if he could still be drafted by the Lions in a trade-back scenario

Edited March 22 by Just Want A Title

[Karnage84]

3 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

I think if he is on the board at 29 he should be the pick.  He would complete our D-Line.  This draft is pretty deep at CB so getting a good CB at 61 or 73 is definitely possible.

I don't know if I believe that he's legitimately the 29th-best prospect in the draft. He profiles very closely to Cameron Jordan (pick 24) and Cameron Heyward (pick 31). His physical tools can't be taught. 

My feeling is that he's going to be a high-floor guy, the ceiling is going to be his question mark. Seems like a high-character, hard-working guy. Reminds me a lot of some of the kids that I used to coach. Just seems like a good person. Being a local kid doesn't hurt. 

He feels his most productive position has been base 5T and moved inside to 4i on passing downs. So basically whatever Cominsky has been doing. 

 

 

[Millenhater]

On 3/21/2024 at 12:04 PM, Sllim Pickens said:

Overrated Prospects - I will focus on Lions targets instead of in general so will not focus on Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.

Darius Robinson - I was high on him for a minute but losing steam.  He doesn't have elite production and doesn't have elite measurables.  He looks good on tape when I have watched him but not sure how he will translate.  I think if he is the pick in round 1, we will be disappointed due to lack of sack production.  He likely would be a step up from Cominsky but not sure he is enough to spend a 1st on. 

Xavier Worthy - He is fast but not a great WR.  Definitely one I would stay away from before the fourth round. 

Keon Coleman - I get speed isn't everything, but it is important.  I think he will be a solid WR in the pro's, but don't think he will reach the heights people expect.  He would be a solid 2nd/early 3rd round pick but most have him top 40.   

Ennis Rakestraw - Awful in man, solid in zone which is fine for our system but not someone I would take in the first.  

 

Under Rated prospects: 

Koolaid McKinstry - He has dropped and now probably will rise again after the pro day but I think he is the second best CB in this draft behind Mitchell. 

Kamal Haden - Another CB who has great size but limited snaps.  This year he gave up a passer rating of 7 in nearly 200 coverage snaps.  definitely better in zone than man but elite in zone last year.   Would be a flier but think he should go higher than his 230 consensus big board ranking. 

 

I am in total agreement with you on these prospects.  I also think McKinstry is the 2nd best CB in the draft.  If he is somehow there when we pick i'd be all for it.

[Karnage84]

15 minutes ago, Millenhater said:

I am in total agreement with you on these prospects.  I also think McKinstry is the 2nd best CB in the draft.  If he is somehow there when we pick i'd be all for it.

I think he answered my questions about his athletic ability. I was expecting a 4.50 - 4.55+. 4.47 while recovering from an injury is impressive. 

[Just Want A Title]

I think draft analysts sometimes over-analyze a prospect like Koolaid McKinstry.  He has been in the spotlight for so long that they start looking for flaws that may not be so impactful.  The thing that stands out to me about him is that he has fairly polished technique compared to other CBs in the draft.

[Karnage84]

A UDFA graded prospect who could do something is Slippery Rock WR Kyle Sheets. He is 6'4(?), 217 lbs, ran a 4.51 and performed really well across the board. He was dominant with about 24% (76) team receptions/completions, 35% team yards (sub 1200) and about 43% team TDs (17). 

I'm away from my computer but these are generally correct. He has the physical tools and production but it's not super freak and he produced at a much lower level. He does offer really good size and athleticism. 

[diehardlionfan]

Although not really an option for Detroit I think Spencer Rattler is under rated and someone who takes a chance on him will be rewarded.

Lincoln Riley really messed him up then jumped ship for USC and took a bunch of Sooners including Caleb Williams with him. Rattler was left to transfer.