Draft Predictions

[Louis Friend]

Draft is one day away, what are your predictions for the draft? 
 

-I think Brad Holmes makes at least two trades.

-I don’t think the Lions will pick in the first round. Holmes and Campbell have been warning fans that they might trade back, I think they have one guy in mind at 29 and if that guy is not there, they move.

-I think the Lions draft a position fans/media are not expecting… i.e. Tight End or Kicker

-I think at least two of the guys people say will not be there at 29 will fall to the second round. 
 

 

[detfan782004]

Detroit trades down from 29.

Detroit trades for a player already in NFL in rare player trade

Detroit takes WR higher than media expects. 
 

More picks on offense than defense. Not my idea just a feeling

 

[Just Want A Title]

Detroit will make a draft pick, whether it be for a KO returner or blocker who can blast open holes, to give Detroit one of the most dangerous KO return units in the league.

[Karnage84]

40 minutes ago, Louis Friend said:

I think they have one guy in mind at 29 and if that guy is not there, they move.

If that's the case, wouldn't it make more sense for them to trade up to get him? I'd interpret a move like that (trading back) as they have several players ranked similarily and therefore feel they can move back, acquire more picks and still get a player they've rated and could have take at #29. 

[Sllim Pickens]

Four things I have noticed by Brad Holmes:

 1) He has typically drafted guys that we did not expect him to pick. 

 2) He takes advantage of guys who fall

 3) He typically "reaches" on one or more players in the later rounds and has often made trades to get that guy. 

 4) We seem to scout small school guys and take chances on the big upside with low floors. 

 

I think that if we draft a player in the first, it will not be one of the guys overly discussed.  Every Holmes draft has had some wild picks we didn't expect in the first couple of rounds.  Nobody expected Sewell to be there.  Hutch was expected but Jamo was out of left field. Gibbs and Campbell were not on anyone's radar where they were drafted (although some of us were pushing for Campbell, he wasn't considered a first round player).  If we do not trade down I expect we take someone like Braden Fiske, Brian Thomas if available, Troy Franklin, or Tyler Nubin.  Guys that aren't being talked about to us but are guys who could be considered the best at their position or most athletic at their position.

He has always made moves for talent that drops at some point during the draft such as Sewell, ARSB, Branch, If someone falls into the second round, I wouldn't be shocked to see us move up to get them.  Someone like Kool-Aid or one of those guys I mentioned above as picks if we stay at 29. Also could be one of the interior OL like JPJ, Frazier etc. 

Yes there are "reaches" in the first couple of rounds with Gibbs, Campbell, Laporta, Levi, Paschal, but I am talking about the Derrick Barnes, Broderic Martin, James Mitchell's.  Guys who were fringe draft picks or UDFA candidates per the consensus but we draft earlier. We seem to really key in on someone late and aren't afraid to throw around future picks to get them.  I think guys we could see fall into this category are Stiggers, Evan Anderson, Jalen Sundell, Omar Brown, Jalen Green, Dallas Gant, Josh Wallace, Micah Abraham, or Kammal Haden as late "reaches" or guys like Beux Limmer, Dwight McGlothern, or Khristian Boyd as guys we could take as early as round 2 that would shock some people.  

And finally the small school guys.  this may be included in the group above of guys they fall in love with and move up for but could be someone already projected higher. We have drafted Broderic Martin, Colby Sorsdal, James Houston the last couple of years and I expect the small school trend to continue.  I see guys like Malachi Corley, Christian Haynes, Kiran Amegadjie, Mason McCormick, or Jalyx Hunt as smaller school guys who could go from rounds 2-4 or some later round targets such as Jalen Green, Javon Solomon, Nathan Thomas, Eric Watts, Garrett Greenfield, Willie Drew, or my favorite Jalen Coker being drafted later from a small school. Stiggers could probably be considered in this group as well since he is a tougher scout given lack of comparability. 

All that to say I think we end up with a draft like Nubin, Kool-Aid, Limmer, Coker, and Jalen Green with a couple of trades in there to move up and get Kool-Aid and everyone freaks out at first but is ok after the fact.  

[Karnage84]

NON-LIONS

Raiders trade up with Washington to #2 overall to take Jayden Daniels. Raiders trade #13, #44, 2025 1st, 2026 1st and more: The Broncos and Chargers are both rebuilding/resetting, Antonio Pierce will want to get "his guy" and pair Davante Adams with a legit QB option

QB's are taken within the first five picks: Caleb at #1 to Chicago; Daniels at #2 to Las Vegas; Maye or McCarthy at #3 to Minnesota (trade down with NE); Maye or McCarthy to Washington via trade back up with Arizona at #4 or LA Chargers at #5. 

Philadelphia trades up with Denver at #12  for Quinyon Mitchell

Denver drafts Michael Penix or Bo Nix at #22 (or bottom of Round 1)

[Sllim Pickens]

7 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

NON-LIONS

Raiders trade up with Washington to #2 overall to take Jayden Daniels. Raiders trade #13, #44, 2025 1st, 2026 1st and more: The Broncos and Chargers are both rebuilding/resetting, Antonio Pierce will want to get "his guy" and pair Davante Adams with a legit QB option

QB's are taken within the first five picks: Caleb at #1 to Chicago; Daniels at #2 to Las Vegas; Maye or McCarthy at #3 to Minnesota (trade down with NE); Maye or McCarthy to Washington via trade back up with Arizona at #4 or LA Chargers at #5. 

Philadelphia trades up with Denver at #12  for Quinyon Mitchell

Denver drafts Michael Penix or Bo Nix at #22 (or bottom of Round 1)

I can't see Washington trading out of #2 without having a QB worth starting on the roster.  No way they go into the year with Mariotta as their starter although that trade would be extremely tempting.  I think they could stay at 13 and take Penix or Nix or maybe even McCarthy and still have loads of picks the next couple of years.  I just can't see them moving out of #2 when they need a QB as bad or worse than Vegas. 

I also don't see any way that QBs go 1-5.  I think there is a better chance only 4 QBs go in round 1 than there is that 5 go at the top of the draft.  I just don't think that real scouts are rating these QBs that high but the media is because of the QB needy teams this year.  But the last time they did that only Kenny Pickett went in round 1.  

[Sllim Pickens]

37 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

If that's the case, wouldn't it make more sense for them to trade up to get him? I'd interpret a move like that (trading back) as they have several players ranked similarily and therefore feel they can move back, acquire more picks and still get a player they've rated and could have take at #29. 

I agree with you they would move down only if they have a few guys they like and are gaining value.  Last year they mentioned they had first round grades on 16 guys, and I think it is less than that this year.  So if one of those guys is available I think we stay and pick, but if not we will move down.  If one of their top 5 guys drops to 15 or so, we could move up.  

[Karnage84]

5 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I just can't see them moving out of #2 when they need a QB as bad or worse than Vegas. 

We've seen the Cardinals make a similar type of move - trading down, acquiring a bunch of draft capital and then trading back up using some of that to acquire a player they want to add. We have heard a ton of rumours around Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers looking to trade down. So you have a floor at pick #5 for a trading partner. Arizona has shown to be in the mix but might not want to trade off of Marvin Harrison Jr. 

If the Commanders aren't thrilled with Daniels' response from the group date and have a meaty offer from a team like the Raiders, they can make that move, add draft capital and then come back up to take a guy they like (whether it's Maye, McCarthy or even Penix). A lot of talk is around how these guys can all use a redshirt year (they won't get it), even including Caleb Williams. 

Peter Schrager and another "insider" have said 6 QB's will go in round 1. Daniel Jeremiah has talked about teams (there was a reference to his 'last 5 calls' were about teams trading up for OT's/OL). It feels like a very offensive heavy round 1. 

[Just Want A Title]

Non-Lions Prediction:

The Commanders trade back into the first round to get a LT after they select a QB at #2.  Former Lion Cornelius Lucas is listed as there starting LT.  That pretty much says it all.

[Sllim Pickens]

42 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

We've seen the Cardinals make a similar type of move - trading down, acquiring a bunch of draft capital and then trading back up using some of that to acquire a player they want to add. We have heard a ton of rumours around Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers looking to trade down. So you have a floor at pick #5 for a trading partner. Arizona has shown to be in the mix but might not want to trade off of Marvin Harrison Jr. 

If the Commanders aren't thrilled with Daniels' response from the group date and have a meaty offer from a team like the Raiders, they can make that move, add draft capital and then come back up to take a guy they like (whether it's Maye, McCarthy or even Penix). A lot of talk is around how these guys can all use a redshirt year (they won't get it), even including Caleb Williams. 

Peter Schrager and another "insider" have said 6 QB's will go in round 1. Daniel Jeremiah has talked about teams (there was a reference to his 'last 5 calls' were about teams trading up for OT's/OL). It feels like a very offensive heavy round 1. 

The Cardinals did it for an OT and already had a QB.  Washington needing a QB is pretty risky.  IMO the only way they move out of #2 is if they aren't in love with any of the QBs or if they have them all graded equal.  Its too risky to pass up on your franchise guy if you see one there.  Moving down and then back up to 5 would make some sense if they can get back up for 13 and 36 or 13, 44, and 100.  But if they have to give up one of those future firsts, I am not sure its worth the risk of missing out on your guy. 

[Sllim Pickens]

18 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Non-Lions Prediction:

The Commanders trade back into the first round to get a LT after they select a QB at #2.  Former Lion Cornelius Lucas is listed as there starting LT.  That pretty much says it all.

I can see that happening.  36 and 67 could get them 29 from us.  Or 40, 78, and 100 for 29 and 164.  

[Louis Friend]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

 If we do not trade down I expect we take someone like Braden Fiske, Brian Thomas if available, Troy Franklin, or Tyler Nubin.  Guys that aren't being talked about to us but are guys who could be considered the best at their position or most athletic at their position.

Frazier is a guy I think is a Dan Campbell type player that they could value higher ala Jack Campbell. Expected 2nd rd guy but a player they value higher due to all his intangibles. 

[Just Want A Title]

27 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I can see that happening.  36 and 67 could get them 29 from us.  Or 40, 78, and 100 for 29 and 164.  

I had the Lions trading back with the Commanders for 36 and 78.  They really need a LT and they will still have two third round picks after the trade.

[Sllim Pickens]

22 minutes ago, Louis Friend said:

Frazier is a guy I think is a Dan Campbell type player that they could value higher ala Jack Campbell. Expected 2nd rd guy but a player they value higher due to all his intangibles. 

Yup, and another one I could see going ahead of JPJ or Barton who are considered the top IOL.  Would be similar to Ragnow going where he did with a mid 40s consensus ranking.