Draft Predictions

[detfan782004]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

There are rumours of a Justin Herbert to Minnesota trade. This would leave Jim Harbaugh to take JJ McCarthy at #5. 

Minnesota Vikings receive

Justin Herbert

LA Chargers receive (my projection)

• Pick #11 (1250)
• Pick #23 (760)
• 2025 1st (580 = pick 33)
• 2025 3rd (100 = pick 100)
• 2026 2nd (265 = pick 65)

Total = 2955 pts (just short of Pick 1.01 by 45 pts)

Harbaugh loves JJ but he is playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers.....he is pumping up JJ to let his guys fall to him that he needs later

[BigC421/]

2 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

Last year I had 14 guys with first round grades, this year I have 23 guys graded as first round talents. I think last year was deeper in rounds 2-3 from the next 15-75 guys whereas this year it’s more saturated from 24-60 and then falls off. 

I always find this talking point extremely annoying ( not personal). Every GM/scout/coach says this every year and it makes zero sense and is a mathematically ignorant statement.  Obviously there are different tiers of 1st rd level players but there are 32 picks in 1st so on average there should be 32 players with 1st rd grades. Some years it mite be 20 others it mite be 40 but it should average around 32. Constantly saying we’ve only got 12-15 players with 1st rd grades means your not properly grading what the 1st rd is. You’ve only got top 10 or elite grades on that many players. Grades you have on guys in the top 10 aren’t supposed to be the same as in the 20’s but there still guys you would draft in the 1st rd. 
 

Chargers aren’t trading Herbert what a ridiculous rumor for anyone to take serious. 

[Karnage84]

2 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I wonder if you can designate it a post June 1 transaction similar to how you can designate two players as post June 1 cuts prior to that date. 

That's something I was trying to wrap my head around... except... 

You're Jim Harbaugh. The Vikings have picks #11 and #23. This is year 1... you want to take JJ at #5. You're not giving away Justin Herbert for just future assets. 

Would they make an agreement with Justin Jefferson and Justin Herbert in a Post-June 1st designated move that would allow the Vikings and Chargers to operate the rest of the draft with that understanding?

Chargers receive Justin Jefferson, 2025 1st, 2025 3rd

Vikings receive Justin Herbert, 2025 2nd

They'd retain picks 11 and 23 knowing that they don't have to trade up to acquire a QB and he's a known commodity. They could arguably take two players with those picks or even trade up to acquire someone like Nabers or Odunze as JJ's replacement. 

For the record.. because someone isn't going to read... this is a rumour. This is only exploring how that could work and what it might look like. This is not my idea or suggestion. Just trying to see where it would make any sense. 

 

[Louis Friend]

Nevermind, not worthy the negativity today. 

Edited April 25 by Louis Friend

[Karnage84]

4 minutes ago, BigC421/ said:

Chargers aren’t trading Herbert what a ridiculous rumor for anyone to take serious. 

Quote

For the record.. because someone isn't going to read... this is a rumour. This is only exploring how that could work and what it might look like. This is not my idea or suggestion. Just trying to see where it would make any sense. 

Case in point.

[BigC421/]

1 minute ago, Louis Friend said:

Sorry you find in depth analysis and grading of prospects beyond a surface level as annoying. I guess GMs, HCs, talking heads, etc really irritate you this time of year, especially on a website based on such things. 

Over your head?  The point was it’s not an accurate statement. 

[detfan782004]

6 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Case in point.

Hey but if there was one many crazy enough to do it....it would be Jim Harbaugh .....just tossing that out there.  

[Sllim Pickens]

5 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

That's something I was trying to wrap my head around... except... 

You're Jim Harbaugh. The Vikings have picks #11 and #23. This is year 1... you want to take JJ at #5. You're not giving away Justin Herbert for just future assets. 

Would they make an agreement with Justin Jefferson and Justin Herbert in a Post-June 1st designated move that would allow the Vikings and Chargers to operate the rest of the draft with that understanding?

Chargers receive Justin Jefferson, 2025 1st, 2025 3rd

Vikings receive Justin Herbert, 2025 2nd

They'd retain picks 11 and 23 knowing that they don't have to trade up to acquire a QB and he's a known commodity. They could arguably take two players with those picks or even trade up to acquire someone like Nabers or Odunze as JJ's replacement. 

For the record.. because someone isn't going to read... this is a rumour. This is only exploring how that could work and what it might look like. This is not my idea or suggestion. Just trying to see where it would make any sense. 

 

I heard the move being discussed was 11, 23 and Christian Darrisaw and maybe something else.  Harbaugh wants to lock down the trenches and then they would take JJ at 5, Oduze/Thomas at 11 and then whatever with 23.  

As for the designation, it would be similar to the player being designated a June 1 cut I think in which they are free agents immediately but the cap space stays until June 1.  Fortunately the Chargers could wait until after June 1 to sign draft picks if needed.  But again, I am not sure its allowed for trades.

[Karnage84]

5 minutes ago, BigC421/ said:

I always find this talking point extremely annoying ( not personal). Every GM/scout/coach says this every year and it makes zero sense and is a mathematically ignorant statement.  Obviously there are different tiers of 1st rd level players but there are 32 picks in 1st so on average there should be 32 players with 1st rd grades. Some years it mite be 20 others it mite be 40 but it should average around 32. Constantly saying we’ve only got 12-15 players with 1st rd grades means your not properly grading what the 1st rd is. You’ve only got top 10 or elite grades on that many players. Grades you have on guys in the top 10 aren’t supposed to be the same as in the 20’s but there still guys you would draft in the 1st rd. 
 

That's not quite how this all works. 

A 1st round grade is comparing the level of talent in a particular class against prior and future years (projections) and how those players will fit in the larger NFL (amongst veterans and other rookies) and the overall value of their impact. There are varying levels of overall talent among 1st overall selections let alone the 31 other players who are drafted year to year. 

The suggestion is that there are only x number of players who would be considered in round 1 in any given year comparative to other years (and players who would have been available then). It's the same idea that Rounds 5-7 are essentially just prioritizing players who are in roughly the same pool as UDFA's but are graded higher. You're selecting them in order to hold their rights as opposed to letting them hit the free market and winding up elsewhere. Not my idea but I've heard this principle being described by someone with non-internet GM background (might have been Randy Mueller... could have been Daniel Jeremiah). 

[BigC421/]

5 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Case in point.

Your still doing an in depth breakdown of an idea someone threw out there randomly. Of course I didn’t read it all it’s not even a rumor it’s just some guy saying what if. I don’t particularly mind you doing your thing with it, the idea and premise is just foolish.  

[Sllim Pickens]

1 minute ago, detfan782004 said:

Hey but if there was one many crazy enough to do it....it would be Jim Harbaugh .....just tossing that out there.  

I think it would be dumb but at the same time, Kirk Cousins has been a better QB the last three years.  I think Herbert is somewhat overrated although some of that is poor coaching he has had.  But he hasn't been good in the fourth quarter, he has only made it to one playoff game and lost that similar to Matt Stafford so if a team trying to reset things could move him and have a QB on a rookie deal again during the rebuild, it does sort of make sense.  But I would still ask for a lot more than that if I am the Chargers. 

[Karnage84]

1 minute ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I heard the move being discussed was 11, 23 and Christian Darrisaw and maybe something else.  Harbaugh wants to lock down the trenches and then they would take JJ at 5, Oduze/Thomas at 11 and then whatever with 23.  

But you have to give up current assets.. which is where I'm struggling with it. Darrisaw is already on the roster so that would just be a future designation...

It's the 2024 draft assets that seem hard to understand. 

Harbaugh would receive pick #11 and pick #23 in exchange for nothing... but then he'd receive Darrisaw in exchange for Herbert (at least in terms of timing). Usually a transfer of ownership would result in you not owning whatever it is once it's sold off. Until it's sold off, it technically is still yours. If the Chargers were ok to take the cap hit and/or they re-work the contract so it is less impactful all of this is a moot point. I just have a hard time understanding how a post-June 1st designation would work while Jim still gets the 2024 assets. 

 

[Karnage84]

4 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I think it would be dumb but at the same time, Kirk Cousins has been a better QB the last three years.  I think Herbert is somewhat overrated although some of that is poor coaching he has had.  But he hasn't been good in the fourth quarter, he has only made it to one playoff game and lost that similar to Matt Stafford so if a team trying to reset things could move him and have a QB on a rookie deal again during the rebuild, it does sort of make sense.  But I would still ask for a lot more than that if I am the Chargers. 

Same here. That still doesn't quite add up. 

[Sllim Pickens]

17 minutes ago, BigC421/ said:

I always find this talking point extremely annoying ( not personal). Every GM/scout/coach says this every year and it makes zero sense and is a mathematically ignorant statement.  Obviously there are different tiers of 1st rd level players but there are 32 picks in 1st so on average there should be 32 players with 1st rd grades. Some years it mite be 20 others it mite be 40 but it should average around 32. Constantly saying we’ve only got 12-15 players with 1st rd grades means your not properly grading what the 1st rd is. You’ve only got top 10 or elite grades on that many players. Grades you have on guys in the top 10 aren’t supposed to be the same as in the 20’s but there still guys you would draft in the 1st rd. 
 

Mathematically, sure there are 32 players drafted in the first round.  But the point of having a first round grade IMO is a grade that stands out compared to the next tier.  When there is an obvious drop off and then a large group of similarly ranked prospects, that is the next tier.  So while every team grades different based on need, philosophy, coaching style etc, they will have a list of their top 1st round guys.  If those guys are gone, they will feel like they should trade down even into the second since the level of talent there is comparable to where the talent level is at their current pick.  If you were to pick a player at your pick that you don't have a first round grade on, you are essentially drafting a second round talent in the first round.  So its not ignorant, its a method to determine your value on guys.  

[Sllim Pickens]

2 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

But you have to give up current assets.. which is where I'm struggling with it. Darrisaw is already on the roster so that would just be a future designation...

It's the 2024 draft assets that seem hard to understand. 

Harbaugh would receive pick #11 and pick #23 in exchange for nothing... but then he'd receive Darrisaw in exchange for Herbert (at least in terms of timing). Usually a transfer of ownership would result in you not owning whatever it is once it's sold off. Until it's sold off, it technically is still yours. If the Chargers were ok to take the cap hit and/or they re-work the contract so it is less impactful all of this is a moot point. I just have a hard time understanding how a post-June 1st designation would work while Jim still gets the 2024 assets. 

 

No, the assets would move, the cap with them would not until June 2.  Just like in a cut, a player is a free agent immediately and can sign elsewhere.  So they would get the assets, they just wouldn't get the cap hit until June 2.