The Bears-Offense

[beardown3231]

On 6/6/2024 at 5:28 PM, JibjeResearch said:

Judging from how Caleb responded to the practices, He was about as good as JF1 in his rookie season.  So, I don't see how Caleb will take the Bears into the super bowl.

So for now, the floor is a 7-10 team, and with the strong defense, we can give 2 more games to the Bears; thus, the Bears are a 9-8 team.

However, the Bears have one of the best LBs, DBs, and WRs groups in the NFL.  If Caleb can put something good early in the season and carry on to the end, I can see a max of a 12-5 team.

 

Fields was terrible his rookie year.

Williams will be a lot better than that.

Still I think it's crazy to think the Bears ever had a chance of going to the Super Bowl this year

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

28 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

Fields was terrible his rookie year.

Williams will be a lot better than that.

Still I think it's crazy to think the Bears ever had a chance of going to the Super Bowl this year

oh trust me, my fever dream is literally Jets/Bears where they finally bury Rodgers, but the Bears have too many unkowns or deficiencies:

 

DL is composed of Montez Sweat and a lot of hope for 2nd year players, or Robinson to suddenly turn it on.

OL's best player can't stay healthy, and it seems like they're trying to sort out who the starting center is, who at best will be some other team's backup. The other guard doesn't seem to be playing.

Rookie QB.  Holding up Stroud's rookie record is like saying you can get Tom Brady in the sixth round. Sure, once, among thousands of tries.

We have a HC who is a stellar DC, but doesn't seem super highly thought of inside or outside the building.  You could argue decisions cost three nearly surefire wins last season, will he figure it out?

New OC,  who maybe turned around Geno's career but maybe it was the QB coach, and gets lukewarm reviews from people in Seattle. 

There are a ton of strong groups for sure, but that's too much to overcome.  Playoffs would be a huge success. 

[AZBearsFan]

On 6/6/2024 at 9:50 PM, Sugashane said:

Bears aren't a Super Bowl caliber team regardless of how the practices and OTAs go. I expect several Bears rookie QBs to go down this year, but that isnt a high bar either.

I do agree on the 7-12 win range though. My lrediction was 9-8 and I have no reason to change it. That may be a WC slot, it may miss the playoffs. But if Williams looks the part then the Bears figure would look brighter than it has since I started following in the 90s.

I have to assume (hope?) this means rookie QB records…

I don’t think it’s necessarily unfair to have high expectations - we haven’t seen a #1 pick with this much receiving talent around him maybe ever. Burrow had a lot around him for a rookie (rookie Higgins, Tyler Boyd and aging AJ Green, plus a good receiving RB in Gio Bernard) and he went for 268 yards per game as a rookie before blowing out his knee, but he also threw 40 times a game (which is a ton) because the team was bad, so that’s just 6.7 ypa.

I’ve said before I see Williams having a Burrow-like career arc (hopefully without the injuries), so putting that same kind of year 1 on something more in line with what I expect from a usage standpoint for Williams (33 passes/game, same comp%, TD/INT rates, and 17 games) would give us this:

366/561, 3759 yards, 18 TD, 7 INT

That’s about where my expectations are at. The INT are probably a bit light (Burrow’s rookie 1.2 INT% was really good) and 6.7 ypa is quite possibly too low with our WR weapons, but that’s the ballpark I’m in heading toward the season. For comparison:

Stroud: 319/499, 4108 yards, 23 TD, 5 INT

Herbert: 396/595, 4336 yards, 31 TD, 10 INT

Williams is capable of that, but it’s a mistake to expect it IMO. 

[dll2000]

3 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I have to assume (hope?) this means rookie QB records…

I don’t think it’s necessarily unfair to have high expectations - we haven’t seen a #1 pick with this much receiving talent around him maybe ever. Burrow had a lot around him for a rookie (rookie Higgins, Tyler Boyd and aging AJ Green, plus a good receiving RB in Gio Bernard) and he went for 268 yards per game as a rookie before blowing out his knee, but he also threw 40 times a game (which is a ton) because the team was bad, so that’s just 6.7 ypa.

I’ve said before I see Williams having a Burrow-like career arc (hopefully without the injuries), so putting that same kind of year 1 on something more in line with what I expect from a usage standpoint for Williams (33 passes/game, same comp%, TD/INT rates, and 17 games) would give us this:

366/561, 3759 yards, 18 TD, 7 INT

That’s about where my expectations are at. The INT are probably a bit light (Burrow’s rookie 1.2 INT% was really good) and 6.7 ypa is quite possibly too low with our WR weapons, but that’s the ballpark I’m in heading toward the season. For comparison:

Stroud: 319/499, 4108 yards, 23 TD, 5 INT

Herbert: 396/595, 4336 yards, 31 TD, 10 INT

Williams is capable of that, but it’s a mistake to expect it IMO. 

I think it depends largely on how the Oline plays.   We may regret not investing a little more on interior.  

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I think it depends largely on how the Oline plays.   We may regret not investing a little more on interior.  

One of the more interesting questions for me going into 2024 will be to see how much of our OL struggles came from the unpredictability of where Fields would be for them. I’m not talking about the constantly being beaten off the snap stuff we saw at C with both Whitehair and Patrick here (both our C options should be upgrades over that). I mean more for our OL being more consistently able to form an actual pocket into which our QB will step up rather than run out of the back of it.

For instance, I think our OTs especially the past few years didn’t really have much of an option to take speed rushers around behind the QB with Fields because his go to move with outside pressure was a spin out the back of the pocket and try to just out-athlete guys. CW does some of that too, but he also moves within the pocket really well, and I think a more traditional pocket presence from our QB plus a far quicker release there will set our OL and our OTs specifically up far better to win their respective reps. Fields was also very much like Cutler in that he needed to see it before he’d throw it, though Cutler had a lightning quick release and a better arm. CW has the lightning quick release bit also is a far more efficient anticipatory thrower. That should help too. 

Edited June 8 by AZBearsFan

[JibjeResearch]

On 6/8/2024 at 4:00 AM, beardown3231 said:

Fields was terrible his rookie year.

Williams will be a lot better than that.

Still I think it's crazy to think the Bears ever had a chance of going to the Super Bowl this year

Everybody has an opinion, I get it...

The good thing is... Caleb is confident!  Only time will tell...

[Epyon]

On 6/8/2024 at 11:05 AM, dll2000 said:

I think it depends largely on how the Oline plays.   We may regret not investing a little more on interior.  

OL AND DL are going to be what decides this season imo....

The entire OL either has big question marks (the interior), or no depth behind them (the tackles)....... The DL is basically Sweat followed by a whole lot of nothing proven.... Can Dexter be the 3T? Can Booker as a mid-late rookie become edge #2?. Can't really say I'm thrilled with the depth there either...  Both units are also unironically the weakest parts of their respective sides of the ball, and it could get real ugly really quick with even a single injury, let alone potentially two or three.

[dll2000]

19 minutes ago, Epyon said:

OL AND DL are going to be what decides this season imo....

The entire OL either has big question marks (the interior), or no depth behind them (the tackles)....... The DL is basically Sweat followed by a whole lot of nothing proven.... Can Dexter be the 3T? Can Booker as a mid-late rookie become edge #2?. Can't really say I'm thrilled with the depth there either...  Both units are also unironically the weakest parts of their respective sides of the ball, and it could get real ugly really quick with even a single injury, let alone potentially two or three.

That is case for a lot of teams on OL.  

But even at full strength we aren’t exceptional on either side. 

GBs first round pick from 2023 isn’t even starting on their DL.

Booker I think is a year away.  

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

33 minutes ago, Epyon said:

OL AND DL are going to be what decides this season imo....

Seems like both the biggest question marks and also really important, so, yeah! I agree. 

33 minutes ago, Epyon said:

The entire OL either has big question marks (the interior), or no depth behind them (the tackles).......

Well... Borom has starting experience at least? I experienced it too, and it was pretty bad though. 

 

33 minutes ago, Epyon said:

The DL is basically Sweat followed by a whole lot of nothing proven.... Can Dexter be the 3T? Can Booker as a mid-late rookie become edge #2?. Can't really say I'm thrilled with the depth there either...  Both units are also unironically the weakest parts of their respective sides of the ball, and it could get real ugly really quick with even a single injury, let alone potentially two or three.

They seem like they expect Dexter to get it done.  He looked good statistically towards the end of last year, and did seem to be improving but it's fair to say there are still questions.  Booker... no idea, that would be really nice but as a plan it's yeeks.   General feeling is we sign an Ngakoue type or actual Ngakoue, not sure what else they could do.  On the other line, maybe GB will have to release a Josh Sitton type again?  

Generally I think they've improved the roster a ton.  The way they have chosen to attack it is not what I would have done, as they seem to be building the trenches last, and slowly.  Solidifying LB last year was really weird, DBs was a little more explicable.  Our big splash being a RB is also a bit odd.  I guess maybe the players of values weren't out there, but if Caleb gets hurt if spends his season running like Fields, or if we have a great team otherwise but can't generate any pressure whatsoever, the hindsight is going to be plentiful 

[Sugashane]

1 hour ago, BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW said:

Well... Borom has starting experience at least? I experienced it too, and it was pretty bad though.

If Borom has to play any significant stretch I would look heavily at putting Lewis next to him basically full time to help. Borom just seems like he dropped off a lot from his rookie year. Might just be my pessimism or maybe he just doesn't have the great games when he rarely gets in like he had his rookie year. Idk.

[beardown3231]

21 hours ago, JibjeResearch said:

Everybody has an opinion, I get it...

The good thing is... Caleb is confident!  Only time will tell...

Are you of the opinion that Fields' rookie year was not horrendous? That is factual

If you believe Caleb will be horrendous this season, yes that's certainly your opinion. I doubt many share it though

Edited June 10 by beardown3231

[Sugashane]

2 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Are you of the opinion that Fields' rookie year was not horrendous? That is factual

If you believe Caleb will be horrendous this season, yes that's certainly your opinion. I doubt many share it though

*many fans of the Bear's rivals share it though

Williams is already being predicted to not only bust hard by several rivals fans, but lead the NFL in interceptions this year in Gen by one poster. Lol

[AZBearsFan]

18 hours ago, Sugashane said:

*many fans of the Bear's rivals share it though

Williams is already being predicted to not only bust hard by several rivals fans, but lead the NFL in interceptions this year in Gen by one poster. Lol

Rival fans ”think” another team’s highly touted rookie will stink? Shocker. We all had great things to say about Jordan Love before last season too, no doubt.

The lead the league in INTs projection cracks me up though - he threw just 14 INT in 1099 passes in college (1.27%). Set aside that they’ll probably not have him throwing 40 times a game because he’s a rookie - where’s the precedent for him to all of a sudden turn the ball over through the air at a league high rate? It’s one thing to think he’ll struggle. It’s another entirely to project him to be arguably the worst QB in the league. The latter is wrought with bias, especially seeing as probably half the teams in the league would take him as their week 1 starter right now, sight unseen against NFL competition. 

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

Rival fans ”think” another team’s highly touted rookie will stink? Shocker. We all had great things to say about Jordan Love before last season too, no doubt.

The lead the league in INTs projection cracks me up though - he threw just 14 INT in 1099 passes in college (1.27%). Set aside that they’ll probably not have him throwing 40 times a game because he’s a rookie - where’s the precedent for him to all of a sudden turn the ball over through the air at a league high rate? It’s one thing to think he’ll struggle. It’s another entirely to project him to be arguably the worst QB in the league. The latter is wrought with bias, especially seeing as probably half the teams in the league would take him as their week 1 starter right now, sight unseen against NFL competition. 

I predict anytime he holds ball too long or scrambles early in season there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth and plenty of I told you so's on social media.

Going to be fun process.

I still am not sold on Love being an elite NFL QB now.  He had some good games in 2nd half of season.  I grant that.  If I was a Packer fan I would be optimistic.

But he had some stinkers early.   I want to see him do it for a full season and in playoffs.   And I wasn't a guy declaring him a bust in draft.  I liked him coming out.  I am just not ready to declare he has arrived and this is who he is now.

Now if Caleb throws for 300 in game 1.  It is over and decided.  LOL.

 

[SodeeWater_Cheezburger]

The Bears finally have the foundation of what can become a great team.  I just think we need to temper our expectations some for this season.  It is going to take Caleb a little time to adjust to the NFL game, and some of our other younger players still need to come into their own.  If we have an improved year over last season, I'll be happy.  I'm just hoping the offense is really starting to look good by the end of the year.  Then we can really look forward to something fun in 2025.