Dr A W Niloc Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 On 5/27/2024 at 5:20 AM, Armbar said: Last year, people were calling the Steelers draft an all-time haul. A year later, those players didn’t make much of an impact aside from Porter, who was up and down. I think they’re gonna end up having had a great class, but it’s not like the Steelers draft class from ‘23 made them a great team. Plus, I personally thought their draft this year was solid, but not like…amazing or something. Agreed. Wholeheartedly. The overuse of superlatives is grating, even for someone [such as myself] who speaks hyperbole as a mother tongue. Yes, Pittsburgh had the #1 draft this year, #3 last year, but neither of them is a Cinderella draft like Houston's last year, let alone a generational one like Baltimore and Kansas City had a couple of years ago. Why and how? Look at Miami's haul from this year: D31 Rk-PFFR DraftBz 40Yd Miami Dolphins Uni Pstn Dif Tall Lbs Pik Rk-Rtng 21. 3-90.8 4-86.8 4.60 Chop Robinson PnS Edg4 -40 6'3" 250 55. 8-81.4 17 84.6 5.13 Patrick Paul Hst LT10 +27 6'7" 315 120 5-91.0 2 34th 4.31 Jaylen Wright Ten RB5 -13 5'11 210 158 5-85.9 17-82.9 4.62 Mohamed Kamara ClS Ed15 Evn 6'1" 250 184 2-91.1 18-84.1 4.47 Malik Washington Vrg WR26 +77 5'8" 194 198 16-70.5 64 75.0 4.53 Patrick McMorris Cal S16 +30 6'0" 207 241 12-82.2 55-74.0 4.43 Tahj Washington USC WR34 +16 5'10 175 In terms of players, these are close to Pittsburgh's bounty. That "D31" above "Pik" stands for 31st in draft capital. That Miami got this many playable rookies with the second fewest resources (ahead of only Cleveland) is a strong argument for #1 overall, not 19th. So what is the difference? Miami's was a Best Player Available draft. This is a fine strategy for an elite (i.e. no pressing needs) or godawful (i.e. nothing but needs, shooting fish in a barrel) team but the Dolphins are neither. None of their actual needs (CB1/3, TE ) or wants (ILB, NT) were addressed. A waif with a shopping list could have made these picks. Sure enough, not one of these players is listed as a starter or likely to become one until someone is injured. The needle doesn't move. Pittsburgh has four rookie starters--all upgrades on the player they replace--already and a fifth, LB6 Payton Wilson, who would start on almost any other team in the league. That is the difference and, as you suggest, even that doesn't make this a glow-in-the-dark haul. It's just equal to or better than all the others this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armbar Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 @Dr A W Niloc, the problem I have is that whatever weird chart you keep quoting is based on some random opinion. According to the NFL GM's, who are way more in the know than us, everyone had an amazing draft. The guys we might view as "crazy steals" are typically selected where they should have been selected. Charting someone's expected draft slot vs. where they actually got drafted is stupid in my opinion. Yeah, I think I have a good idea of who had a great draft vs. who didn't. And Pittsburgh certainly didn't strike out in my eyes. However, using data to support picks who have yet to sniff the NFL field is kind of weird to me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr A W Niloc Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 (edited) 1 hour ago, Armbar said: However, using data to support picks who have yet to sniff the NFL field is kind of weird to me. I think that, over the long run, players whom someone thinks are good fare better than those whom no one thinks are good. I have no problem using your metric, GM's own opinion, though. A team that has similar needs and less draft capital that manages to acquire 4 or 5 starters has probably outdrafted similar teams that emerge with one or none. Edited May 28 by Dr A W Niloc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armbar Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 23 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said: I think that, over the long run, players whom someone thinks are good fare better than those whom no one thinks are good. Who is “someone” and “no one” though? You? That’s my issue with it. GM’s love their draft classes. You are insisting that you, or other randoms, know more than the professionals. Which in some cases, can be true. In most cases, let’s leave it to the people making millions to do that job. Again, I think it’s fine to have an opinion about a prospect being over/underrated, BUT these weird metrics you’re using are rooted in….pure opinion & you’re acting as if it’s statistical fact-driven data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr A W Niloc Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 1 hour ago, Armbar said: Who is “someone” and “no one” though? You? LOL! Hardly. There are myriad sources of data. In addition to the NFL's resources you have ECR, PFF, Draft Buzz, Power lists, geek and bobblehead sites, mock drafts, blogs, cheat sheets, et cetera. The trick is to follow along and see who, over the course of a few decades, has the most reliable track record. And who makes the most sense, depending on the the facts behind their perspectives. The same test applies to General Managers. Howie Roseman is clearly the best while, for others, "professional" must mean "someone even worse at everything else." The rest is metrics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armbar Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 10 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said: LOL! Hardly. There are myriad sources of data. In addition to the NFL's resources you have ECR, PFF, Draft Buzz, Power lists, geek and bobblehead sites, mock drafts, blogs, cheat sheets, et cetera. The trick is to follow along and see who, over the course of a few decades, has the most reliable track record. And who makes the most sense, depending on the the facts behind their perspectives. The same test applies to General Managers. Howie Roseman is clearly the best while, for others, "professional" must mean "someone even worse at everything else." The rest is metrics. Howie Roseman is great. And these past two year hauls were very good…but were also filled with “misses,” if you wanna talk about young guys making immediate impacts. Point being, it’s all a subjective crap shoot. You can’t assume rookies are going to be high quality players in year 1 in literally any instance. I think it’s fair to tell you to pump the brakes on analytics, which have zero data aside from imaginary pre draft slotting, when talking about who’s gonna be good this year. It just seems silly to me, as this is essentially using a Mel Kiper draft grade to determine who’s gonna have a great year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtmmike Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 On 5/25/2024 at 8:07 AM, diamondbull424 said: HOF career? Not to discredit Joe Burrow because he’s a talented player, but this is absurd. Joe Burrow has exactly 1 PB team at 27 years old and 1 CB player. He has 0 1st team AP teams, has 0 MVPs, and has 0 SB rings. Meanwhile Deshaun Watson at 28 has at least got 3 pro bowl teams to his credit. Has a career passer rating of 100.8 and career ANY/A of 6.89 vs Burrow’s career 98.6 and career ANY/A of 6.52. Throw in Lamar Jackson who at a younger 27 than Burrow has 2x MVP, 2x AP 1st team, 3x PB, has a career passer rating of 98.0, and career ANY/A of 6.80. Throw in Russell Wilson who at 35 years old is a 9x PB, 1 SB champ, 1x Walter Payton MOY, has a career passer rating of 100.0 and a career ANY/A of also 6.80. Based on the HOF resume, Joe Burrow has the worst resume of any starting QB in his division currently. Beyond that, not to defend Watson the human, but the football player hasn’t had the most normal offseasons the last few years to focus on his football craft. That and Watson was playing injured at points last year and IIRC through their offseason. This is the closest Stefanski will have had to work with his QB from a health and distraction standpoint. Considering both have question marks surrounding them with Burrow’s wrist injury and how it might react to the NFL physicality and Watson’s off the field issues, I like Watson’s chances of outperforming Burrow in Dushbag has 1playoff win in 7years hof material!!! Sorry seven years ago rothlisberger better brady is letter mahomes he got to the pb because they did not want to bother with it!!! you make the weakest argument ever based on pro bowl appearances dushbag was throwing to a hof wr in his prime .Brandon Cooks a excellent Wr outside of that in the weakest division defensively in the nfl. he also had maybe the greatest receiving running backs ever. furthermore Andrew luck was clearly better that makes him about the 5th best qb in the afc when he was selected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamondbull424 Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 20 hours ago, mtmmike said: Dushbag has 1playoff win in 7years hof material!!! 😂 Strawman argument yet again. You’re the one arguing about players making the HOF. The only two that I think make the HOF at this point are Wilson (if he does a little more) and Lamar Jackson (needs a little more). Burrow and Watson have a long way to go to build their resume. 20 hours ago, mtmmike said: rothlisberger better brady is letter mahomes he got to the pb because they did not want to bother with it!!! 😂 Strawman argument yet again. But I agree. All three QBs were/are better. All three also are superior to Joe Burrow in their HOF resume as well. 20 hours ago, mtmmike said: he got to the pb because they did not want to bother with it!!! Yes, whoever ”they” were/are, they did not want to bother with it for sure and I can see why too because Watson can be quite handsy, so perhaps “they” were avoiding him? They have to be careful and protect themselves. 20 hours ago, mtmmike said: you make the weakest argument ever based on pro bowl appearances dushbag was throwing to a hof wr in his prime .Brandon Cooks a excellent Wr outside of that in the weakest division defensively in the nfl. Meh. By this logic Chase and Higgins would matchup quite comparably to Hopkins and Cooks. 20 hours ago, mtmmike said: he also had maybe the greatest receiving running backs ever. Ah yes Lamar Miller and Carlos Hyde, amazing receiving running backs. How could I forget them. 20 hours ago, mtmmike said: furthermore Andrew luck was clearly better that makes him about the 5th best qb in the afc when he was selected. 89.5 passer rating. 4-4 playoff record. 100.8 passer rating. 1-2 playoff record. Luck was definitely much better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armbar Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 (edited) 43 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said: 😂 Strawman argument yet again. You’re the one arguing about players making the HOF. The only two that I think make the HOF at this point are Wilson (if he does a little more) and Lamar Jackson (needs a little more). Burrow and Watson have a long way to go to build their resume. 😂 Strawman argument yet again. But I agree. All three QBs were/are better. All three also are superior to Joe Burrow in their HOF resume as well. Yes, whoever ”they” were/are, they did not want to bother with it for sure and I can see why too because Watson can be quite handsy, so perhaps “they” were avoiding him? They have to be careful and protect themselves. Meh. By this logic Chase and Higgins would matchup quite comparably to Hopkins and Cooks. Ah yes Lamar Miller and Carlos Hyde, amazing receiving running backs. How could I forget them. 89.5 passer rating. 4-4 playoff record. 100.8 passer rating. 1-2 playoff record. Luck was definitely much better. If you come at the king you best not ms. due you no what you just did genius? Edited May 31 by Armbar 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtmmike Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 1 hour ago, diamondbull424 said: 😂 Strawman argument yet again. You’re the one arguing about players making the HOF. The only two that I think make the HOF at this point are Wilson (if he does a little more) and Lamar Jackson (needs a little more). Burrow and Watson have a long way to go to build their resume. 😂 Strawman argument yet again. But I agree. All three QBs were/are better. All three also are superior to Joe Burrow in their HOF resume as well. Yes, whoever ”they” were/are, they did not want to bother with it for sure and I can see why too because Watson can be quite handsy, so perhaps “they” were avoiding him? They have to be careful and protect themselves. Meh. By this logic Chase and Higgins would matchup quite comparably to Hopkins and Cooks. Ah yes Lamar Miller and Carlos Hyde, amazing receiving running backs. How could I forget them. 89.5 passer rating. 4-4 playoff record. 100.8 passer rating. 1-2 playoff record. Luck was definitely much better. Dushbag number 23rd ranked qb burrows 3rd your a genius but keep talking . drew breese numbers at 4 years rtg average 85 yards 8772 touchdowns 56 burrows has him beat in every category The prosecution rests there are many more hof qb that he can absolutely light. like I said weakest argument of all time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamondbull424 Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 (edited) 1 hour ago, mtmmike said: Dushbag number 23rd ranked qb burrows 3rd your a genius but keep talking . drew breese numbers at 4 years rtg average 85 yards 8772 touchdowns 56 burrows has him beat in every category The prosecution rests there are many more hof qb that he can absolutely light. like I said weakest argument of all time. Boy you’ve really owned me here in this argument master. I’m not sure where Drew Brees came into this argument, but yes, Joe Burrow currently has him beat in stats. So does Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, and… oh, even Deshaun Watson. Clearly we’re in a time in the sport where nearly every exciting young QB is a clear cut HOFer. Lead by the all time great in the making Joe Burrow. Do I have this right master? Did I do it right? 😂 (this is fun) Edited May 31 by diamondbull424 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtmmike Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 4 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said: Boy you’ve really owned me here in this argument master. I’m not sure where Drew Brees came into this argument, but yes, Joe Burrow currently has him beat in stats. So does Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, and… oh, even Deshaun Watson. Clearly we’re in a time in the sport where nearly every exciting young QB is a clear cut HOFer. Lead by the all time great in the making Joe Burrow. Do I have this right master? Did I do it right? 😂 (this is fun) Nice have a good day. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DawgX Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 3 hours ago, Armbar said: If you come at the king you best not ms. due you no what you just did genius? Post of the year 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 “Dushbag” will never not be hilarious 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DawgX Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 3 hours ago, MWil23 said: “Dushbag” will never not be hilarious "Dutch hunting" will forever be the best Mikeism. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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