Who wins AFC East in 2024?

[Football_Bachelor08]

The Bills still seem have enough to compete. The Dolphins will run up the scoreboard but still have defensive issues. The Jets have Rodgers back but will he still be effective after such a nasty injury? The Patriots are rebuilding with a rookie head coach and QB but may end up surprising us.

Who you got winning the AFC East?

Edited May 24 by Football_Bachelor08

[Apparition]

My head says the smart money is on the Jets, but my heart says they're the Jets. They've got 4 division titles in 64 years of existence.

It might be one of those wacky seasons in which the top 3 teams all finish 10-7 and the winner is determined by like the 6th tiebreaker.

Edited May 25 by Apparition

[diamondbull424]

Going with the Jets. They seem like they could be very hungry to prove doubters wrong and have leaders across that team at various levels. They’ve got talent and I think they’re poised to have a top 10 offense and defense.

Josh Allen is outmatched in talent and he’s also been quite durable to this point and I could see this being his year to regress a little on the injury front.

Miami showed last season that they couldn’t get it done and so I don’t trust them to get it done. I think the Jets have more heart and are going to be more motivated. 

[Football_Bachelor08]

4 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

Going with the Jets. They seem like they could be very hungry to prove doubters wrong and have leaders across that team at various levels. They’ve got talent and I think they’re poised to have a top 10 offense and defense.

Josh Allen is outmatched in talent and he’s also been quite durable to this point and I could see this being his year to regress a little on the injury front.

Miami showed last season that they couldn’t get it done and so I don’t trust them to get it done. I think the Jets have more heart and are going to be more motivated. 

I agree. The Jets have a good enough defense that they can win with Rodgers playing at 75-80% of what he used to, which is probably the best they can hope for after an injury like that.

[diamondbull424]

6 hours ago, Football_Bachelor08 said:

I agree. The Jets have a good enough defense that they can win with Rodgers playing at 75-80% of what he used to, which is probably the best they can hope for after an injury like that.

Yeah that’s definitely the best they can hope for, but he fake returned pretty quickly. So with an unmonitored offseason, I’m sure he “spent some time in Europe” doing a breakthrough medical procedure (designer steroids).

I’m very bullish on Rodgers MVP chances this season, mainly because he typically is at his best when he’s doubted the most. The league is also incredibly QB friendly and I’m sure he will be protected by the likely much improved Jets OL as well as the zebras, so his age and this injury can probably be overcome with his experience and arm talent.

[Dr A W Niloc]

     There is nothing in the numbers that suggests anyone will beat the Jets this year.  Concerns about coaching are alleviated by the defense's excellence and experience coupled with Aaron Rodgers not needing a lot of guidance.

AFCE  Overall Offence Defence | 2023 D V O A | Frequencies Off | Ease of Schedule
2024  Rk-PFFR  Rk-Rtg  Rk-Rtg | DVOA-Def-Off | QB RB WR TE EoS | QB RB WR TE Team
      ** ****                 |              |                 |
Jets   2  616   9 320   1 296 | 25th  20  32 | 10 12 23 10  10 | 15 14 14 20 18th
Buff   8  819  13 366   6 453 |  3rd 1st 3rd | 22 12 19 11  32 | 25 28 26 21 27th
Miam  14  894   3 224  14 545 |  6th 8th 2nd | 16  9  8 32  26 | 29 10 32 30  9th
N.E.  31 1181  25 413  29 768 | 27th  16  29 | 20 12 24 15   5 | 17  2 25  7 25th

     To his credit, Joe Douglas outdrafted Chris Grier, Brandon Beane, and Eliot Wolf.  The race for second will be more interesting, with Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels serving as wild cards.

 

[Armbar]

Probably the Bills. I don’t think any 4 of these teams are contenders though. 

[Jeezla]

If Jaelan Phillips plays 16 regular season games, I think it will be the Phins.

[Jakuvious]

Still going to be the Bills. I think they took a step back overall, but no one else in the division has really demonstrated any ability to take advantage. They screwed around for like half the season and the Dolphins still couldn't capitalize last year. And while the Bills shed some players, the Dolphins did too. I get the hype around the Jets, but there's so much projection there, and so much that needs to go right. Defense is more volatile year to year than offense, so even what we do know about the Jets, their defense, I have less confidence in that being great than the Bills offense, for instance. You're old and injury prone at the most important positions on offense. As long as Rodgers plays most of the season, they won't be bad, but they really feel like a 7 to 10 win team, to me. While the Bills still have enough around Allen they should be right around 11 again. The Bills will step back more in their ability to contend with like, KC and Baltimore for a superbowl. Not as much their ability to contend with the division.

[Apparition]

1 hour ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

     There is nothing in the numbers that suggests anyone will beat the Jets this year.  Concerns about coaching are alleviated by the defense's excellence and experience coupled with Aaron Rodgers not needing a lot of guidance.

AFCE  Overall Offence Defence | 2023 D V O A | Frequencies Off | Ease of Schedule
2024  Rk-PFFR  Rk-Rtg  Rk-Rtg | DVOA-Def-Off | QB RB WR TE EoS | QB RB WR TE Team
      ** ****                 |              |                 |
Jets   2  616   9 320   1 296 | 25th  20  32 | 10 12 23 10  10 | 15 14 14 20 18th
Buff   8  819  13 366   6 453 |  3rd 1st 3rd | 22 12 19 11  32 | 25 28 26 21 27th
Miam  14  894   3 224  14 545 |  6th 8th 2nd | 16  9  8 32  26 | 29 10 32 30  9th
N.E.  31 1181  25 413  29 768 | 27th  16  29 | 20 12 24 15   5 | 17  2 25  7 25th

     To his credit, Joe Douglas outdrafted Chris Grier, Brandon Beane, and Eliot Wolf.  The race for second will be more interesting, with Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels serving as wild cards.

 

eh?

[Dr A W Niloc]

2 hours ago, Apparition said:

eh?

Sorry.  I should have finished the sentence.  Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels will serve as wild cards in their respective divisions.

No prediction is safe when you have a highly drafted QB in the mix.

[Trentwannabe]

I have no faith the Dolphins are mentally strong enough to get it done when it matters. And I don’t see much with their defense.

Bills still have a lot of key pieces including Allen so winning the division is still very possible. But no doubt it’s a transition season.

I love Breece Hall and the Jets defense is elite. So if Rodgers is healthy I think they can take it with 10-11 wins. But I could also see an implosion and Saleh fired mid season. 

[Football_Bachelor08]

23 hours ago, Trentwannabe said:

I have no faith the Dolphins are mentally strong enough to get it done when it matters. And I don’t see much with their defense.

Bills still have a lot of key pieces including Allen so winning the division is still very possible. But no doubt it’s a transition season.

I love Breece Hall and the Jets defense is elite. So if Rodgers is healthy I think they can take it with 10-11 wins. But I could also see an implosion and Saleh fired mid season. 

Agreed on Miami, especially with their defensive issues. They'll definitely light up the scoreboard but they'll have to rely too heavily on the offense.

[sparky151]

I'll guess the Jets but I'm not very confident Rodgers will be durable enough to play all year. And the O-line is a bit patchwork. 

[Soko]

This is almost a “just to be different” kind of take, but I do  think the Jets can take it. They have the best defense in the division, which is minus one JFM, but plus one Haason Reddick (one of the most productive edges in the league). They’ve got some injury questions on offense between Rodgers, Tyron, and Mike Williams - but hard to point at any holes on this roster when they’re healthy. Maybe safety or LG, but those are probably the one position on each side of the ball that you don’t really need a game changer at. Just competence. Tight end I guess, could be better. 

Buffalo will still be good because they have the best QB in the division, so you can’t count them out for the division either. I just think between their losses and the Jets’ additions, I’d have to lean NYJ.

I don’t really know what to expect out of Miami other than boom or bust, as usual. On one hand, they’ve still got their playmakers. On the other, they lost their second and third best OL, their best DL (after already being thin there), and they’re thin at CB. They’re tough to predict.