TL-TwoWinsAway Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 1 hour ago, TedLavie said: I do understand your POV, but who's to say MHJ (or Rome) don't just suck at football? We see hyped prospects not being good enough in the NFL for a myriad of reasons every year. Including blue-chip prospects and/or prospects I really like. So for me, for rookies, yeah I'm basing this on production only. May be harsh, but I'm not going to put anyone on a pedestal based on their NCAA career. And if you think otherwise that's fine too - that's BDL after all. And, sure, but we're talking about prediction and projection. Arguing that supporting cast is irrelevant is wild. If you (not "you", but you) can't entertain the possibility that a player could have performed better with a better supporting cast, it makes me wonder what we're doing here at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TedLavie Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 19 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: And, sure, but we're talking about prediction and projection. Arguing that supporting cast is irrelevant is wild. If you (not "you", but you) can't entertain the possibility that a player could have performed better with a better supporting cast, it makes me wonder what we're doing here at all. In a vacuum I'm totally with you. Of course the whole purpose of BDL is projecting how people would do in very different situations they're presented to IRL. But for rookies, I choose to not assume what they would do even in perfect situations based on what they looked like in college. The NFL is a whole different beast and, sure, I have no doubt Caleb, MHJ, Rome or others will eventually get it together. But as long as they don't, I'll assume they're not ready, regardless of their supporting cast or not. That's also why I never start rookies Week 1. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 1 hour ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: And Mahomes? Because you also said it wouldn't have been different had Mahomes been QB. 56 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: And, sure, but we're talking about prediction and projection. Arguing that supporting cast is irrelevant is wild. If you (not "you", but you) can't entertain the possibility that a player could have performed better with a better supporting cast, it makes me wonder what we're doing here at all. What has Marvin Harrison Jr. done in the NFL to make you think it would have been different with Jesus Christ at quarterback Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 7 minutes ago, Blue said: What has Marvin Harrison Jr. done in the NFL to make you think it would have been different with Jesus Christ at quarterback Play a game with me. A smart person game. You think MHJR will only have one reception for four yards during Week 2, right? I predict that MHJR will have more than one reception and more than four yards during Week 2. We'll see who is better at predicting the outcome of his performance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 52 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: You think MHJR will only have one reception for four yards during Week 2, right? No. Don't put words in my mouth. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Just now, Blue said: No. Don't put words in my mouth. What is your projection/prediction for MHJR for Week 2? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Just now, TL-TwoWinsAway said: What is your projection/prediction for MHJR for Week 2? I don't know and don't care. I am simply looking at what he has actually done on a real-life NFL field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InjuredReserve Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 2 hours ago, Blue said: What has Marvin Harrison Jr. done in the NFL to make you think it would have been different with Jesus Christ at quarterback Jesus Christ never played in an NFL game so I would have to assume his maximum production is 0 yard passing. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 9 minutes ago, Blue said: I don't know and don't care. I am simply looking at what he has actually done on a real-life NFL field. But, why? You're involved in an exercise based around predicting and projecting performance and can't even attempt to guess as to what a starting WR might do during an upcoming game? Seriously. Give it a shot. I'll try, too: they play on the road against the Rams, who seem to have a very good team this year. They have a strong RB in Kyren and a resurgent Kupp with Stafford behind center, who looked great Week 1. I think the Cardinals will have to try and push the ball down the field to keep up. So, I'll say that I think MHJR will have 4-5 catches for 70-80 yards Week 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 4 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: But, why? You're involved in an exercise based around predicting and projecting performance and can't even attempt to guess as to what a starting WR might do during an upcoming game? Seriously. Give it a shot. I'll try, too: they play on the road against the Rams, who seem to have a very good team this year. They have a strong RB in Kyren and a resurgent Kupp with Stafford behind center, who looked great Week 1. I think the Cardinals will have to try and push the ball down the field to keep up. So, I'll say that I think MHJR will have 4-5 catches for 70-80 yards Week 2. Because it is totally irrelevant to my point, which is based entirely on what he has actually done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 1 minute ago, Blue said: Because it is totally irrelevant to my point, which is based entirely on what he has actually done. ... but that's exactly the point. It's not just based on what someone has actually done. We're dealing in a word of projection and prediction, so it can't be, because that wouldn't be accurate. This is a great example: MHJR isn't guaranteed to get only one reception for only four yards in Week 2. As a matter of fact, it's not likely that he does, because, based on the factors, that would be a rare outcome. As a reminder, this is where the conversation started: "I'm curious--multiple people said they think MHJr has a better game with Stafford than he did IRL with Murray. Why?" That's the "why": it's an exercise based on projection and prediction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 1 minute ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: ... but that's exactly the point. It's not just based on what someone has actually done. We're dealing in a word of projection and prediction, so it can't be, because that wouldn't be accurate. This is a great example: MHJR isn't guaranteed to get only one reception for only four yards in Week 2. As a matter of fact, it's not likely that he does, because, based on the factors, that would be a rare outcome. As a reminder, this is where the conversation started: "I'm curious--multiple people said they think MHJr has a better game with Stafford than he did IRL with Murray. Why?" That's the "why": it's an exercise based on projection and prediction. Yes, he's not guaranteed for anything next week. He could have a goose egg and not do anything at all. He could go off for 8 catches and 150 yards. Who knows? I'm not interested in that--I'm interested in what he has done so far. You say "the point," but I don't think we're making the same point here. Of course this league is based on projection. Obviously, it is. My point is that MHJ hasn't done anything, in my opinion, to justify giving him the benefit of the doubt. You can say "well he would put up better numbers with a better quarterback," but that's true of any player. Does that make MHJ a better player? I would say no. I could (and did) point at Rome Odunze and say the same thing. Fact is that, given it's a one-game sample size, it's hard for me to say Player X is better than their numbers and would do better with a different supporting cast. Although I can't help myself from pointing out that putting up one catch for four yards in your NFL debut after spending all offseason refusing to partake in the traditional draft process because your dad wants you to approach the offseason like a vet instead of wasting time on drills in shorts that don't mean anything is either a bad look or hella funny, depending on your perspective. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 2 minutes ago, Blue said: Yes, he's not guaranteed for anything next week. He could have a goose egg and not do anything at all. He could go off for 8 catches and 150 yards. Who knows? I'm not interested in that--I'm interested in what he has done so far. Exactly. We did it. We got to the bottom line here, and the answer to the "why" you initially asked: he could do a number of things when different factors are at play, which is exactly why many argued in this thread that MHJR could have a better performance with a better supporting cast. I'm talking about possibility; you're the one talking about guarantees. You agreed that he would've had the exact same production with Mahomes at QB during Week 1, and that's nonsense. He could've had more. He could've gotten nothing. Those factors play a role, which is the basis of those arguments. That's how prediction and projection work. That's the "why". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcb1213 Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 7 hours ago, TedLavie said: I do understand your POV, but who's to say MHJ (or Rome) don't just suck at football? How dare you insinuate we suck at football 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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