WEEK 3 GDT: New England Patriots (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1)

[Broncofan]

The prime time matchup you all wanted to see.....Jacoby Brissett against A-Rod and Gang Green.

If you like defense, you'll enjoy this one. 

If you want points and yardage.....not so much.

 

MLB Bentley out hurts the D in theory, but their LB corps has depth.   I do think the Jets will have more success in the run game with Bentley out.   Christian Gonzalez is the real deal - don't let the boxscore fool you, DK Metcalk got 24 of his 129 yards vs. Gonzalez.   I expect Garrett Wilson vs. Gonzalez, only Q is what happens when Wilson moves to the slot.    Otherwise, expect the Jets to feed Breece Hall, both in the run & pass game.   Hall hasn't had that signature big play yet, would be great if this week was the first.

On the Pats O side.....oof.   The OL can't protect, they are allowing pressure on almost half the snaps....while getting blitzed the least out of all the NFL teams IIRC.   That's bad, and one of the main reasons Drake Maye is learning on the sidelines.    Expect a lot of Rhamondre Stephenson, and given the Jets shutdown CB's, a fair amount of Hunter Henry & some Austin Hooper thrown in there.    It seems like DJ Reed will be able to play, which really makes it tough for a NE WR corps that has put up a total of 85 yards in 2 games, to step up.  

Have at it.

Edited Wednesday at 12:24 PM by Broncofan

[Hunter2_1]

Hang on, is it tonight?!

[Broncofan]

Just now, Hunter2_1 said:

Hang on, is it tonight?!

LOL no.   I'll fix the poll.

[Hunter2_1]

Jets will win, but we’ll probably make it really hard for them. That’s us now. 
 

Doesn’t get any easier for Garrett going up against Gonzo. Our run D was ranked the best last year, and it isn’t that good this time with the loss of Baremore (and now Bentley) but it’s still good. 
 

Jets D was overhyped and they’re now suffering with injuries. Have they got a pass rush with no JJ? They didn’t really put any real pressure on Purdy or Levis.

So on paper it seems a tough game for them, but I still think they come through. Rodgers will find a play when it matters. 
 

NE - 20

NYJ - 24

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Jets will win, but we’ll probably make it really hard for them. That’s us now. 
 

Doesn’t get any easier for Garrett going up against Gonzo. Our run D was ranked the best last year, and it isn’t that good this time with the loss of Baremore (and now Bentley) but it’s still good. 
 

Jets D was overhyped and they’re now suffering with injuries. Have they got a pass rush with no JJ? They didn’t really put any real pressure on Purdy or Levis.

So on paper it seems a tough game for them, but I still think they come through. Rodgers will find a play when it matters. 
 

NE - 20

NYJ - 24

Rhamondre better get 20+ carries, and Hunter Henry 10+ targets, if the Pats O hopes to win this game.  It's do-able, I personally think the 6.5 pt spread is nuts.   Just don't want to back a team that can't pass protect.   It really sucks, because I suspect we may not see Maye until December at this rate.   Gotta keep the QB standing.

I will say it would be nice to see NE play some WR's with separation / wiggle.  I'm surprised they're not scheming touches for Demario Douglas.   And I think we've seen enough of KJ Osborn and Tyquan Thornton to know they aren't the answer.   More Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, please.   Let them learn.

For all the flak A-Rod gets about decline, the one thing he's been good at - limiting TO's.   That's huge here, because it's hard to see NE thriving on O without a couple of short fields...unless the Jets run D is that bad.  Guess we'll find out tomorrow (NOT tonight lol).

Edited Wednesday at 12:31 PM by Broncofan

[Hunter2_1]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Rhamondre better get 20+ carries, and Hunter Henry 10+ targets, if the Pats O hopes to win this game.  It's do-able, I personally think the 6.5 pt spread is nuts.   Just don't want to back a team that can't pass protect.   It really sucks, because I suspect we may not see Maye until December at this rate.   Gotta keep the QB standing.

I will say it would be nice to see NE play some WR's with separation / wiggle.  I'm surprised they're not scheming touches for Demario Douglas.   And I think we've seen enough of KJ Osborn and Tyquan Thornton to know they aren't the answer.   More Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, please.   Let them learn.

For all the flak A-Rod gets about decline, the one thing he's been good at - limiting TO's.   That's huge here, because it's hard to see NE thriving on O without a couple of short fields...unless the Jets run D is that bad.  Guess we'll find out tomorrow (NOT tonight lol).

I agree with all that. We're asking a lot of Dre at the minute. But the run blocking has been a pleasant surprise. We can move bodies in the run game. What hasn't been a pleasant surprise is the pass defense so far; Geno shredded us. He made it look easy. But I'm hoping that's a one off....? 

As for WR separation, I've just seen a stat that Polk had the most separation per route run?! But if you can't get him the ball, it doesn't matter. He got a TD at least. It's been an issue for years now, WR separation. Thornton is cheeks. Runs a 4.3 but can't play WR....

I saw a comment in the jets forum that under Mayo we've already got better coaching than NYJ under Saleh. Not sure if I'd go with that this early, but we do look tight. Jets just have a bit too much talent for us, I'd say.

 

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, Hunter2_1 said:

I agree with all that. We're asking a lot of Dre at the minute. But the run blocking has been a pleasant surprise. We can move bodies in the run game. What hasn't been a pleasant surprise is the pass defense so far; Geno shredded us. He made it look easy. But I'm hoping that's a one off....? 

As for WR separation, I've just seen a stat that Polk had the most separation per route run?! But if you can't get him the ball, it doesn't matter. He got a TD at least. It's been an issue for years now, WR separation. Thornton is cheeks. Runs a 4.3 but can't play WR....

I saw a comment in the jets forum that under Mayo we've already got better coaching than NYJ under Saleh. Not sure if I'd go with that this early, but we do look tight. Jets just have a bit too much talent for us, I'd say.

 

Re: separation, a BIG flaw with the stats being used (***, etc) - it only counts separation per target.   That's a function of the QB recognizing when a guy's open, and getting it there quickly.   A bad QB will lower the separation score by being late...and it doesn't count the separation WR's are getting when they're not targeted.   More importantly, it's not really telling you how a WR is doing the entire time.     As 80-90 percent of routes are being run without targets (unless you are Cooper Kupp lol), it can be a terribly misleading stat.

It's way more work, but the best stat would be separation per route run...not per target.  You can imagine though how insane the work would be.  All of which to say....separation as a metric is interesting, but way more prone to flaws in analysis, and confounders from QB play. 

[Trentwannabe]

I voted for the Jets but won’t be shocked at all to see NE end up victorious.

[NYJets4716]

CJ Mosley is out.  But it looks like DJ Reed and Michael Carter will be good to go. 

[Tank4Drake]

Jets. But as I told people all year, the Pats are much better than people are giving them credit for. People were calling them the worst team in the league coming into the season, lol. They have a solid defense, an extremely underrated offensive cast, and Maye is gonna light it up when he starts. Rhamondre is a Top 10 RB, Henry is a Top 7-8 TE, Polk is gonna be a very good Rookie WR, and Bourne is one of the most underrated WR’s in the league when he makes his return (said all this before the season started). 

[Football_Bachelor08]

I expect a grind-it-out defensive struggle with the Jets ultimately prevailing.

[Hunter2_1]

Last time Gonzo covered Wilson, he allowed 18 yards, on 23 coverage snaps. Oof.

Having Wilson on my FF team but being a Pats fan is going to be confusing tonight 

[BillSabre]

1 hour ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Last time Gonzo covered Wilson, he allowed 18 yards, on 23 coverage snaps. Oof.

Having Wilson on my FF team but being a Pats fan is going to be confusing tonight 

Maybe you should sit him this week. 

[Soko]

Mike Williams and the Jets front seven is going to make/break the game, IMO. If Gonzo follows Garrett, there’s going to be a big size differential between Marcus/Jon Jones and Mike Williams, and if anything, we know Rodgers can still place the ball. 

The front is going to have to beat the injured front, soundly. If not, the secondary’s not gonna tackle. I’ve advocated for Sauce as CB1 in the league, but he’s looked super soft in tackling and a little lackadaisical is coverage thus far. Will be another quiet night for the Pats receivers, but Henry will probably be getting looks again.

[Tank4Drake]

3 hours ago, BillSabre said:

Maybe you should sit him this week. 

Don’t do that. I considered it for Nico against Jaylon Johnson last week but decided to start Nico. The fact is corners rarely follow the #1 WR all game like the past. It’s always been rare, actually. Revis did it but not many others.