Random Packer News & Notes

[Packerraymond]

10 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

FIFY

Haven't dismissed yours for a second. You're the one doing all of that. Glad you think we can win the SB this year, that's what you want to feel as a fan. I don't and you can't seem to handle it.

[incognito_man]

3 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

In a word where GB wins between 7 and 9 games in 2023, does that make my viewpoint any more objective?  You tend to present things as absolute when the nature of the subject is by nature not so black and white.  It's weird to me that anyone viewing this team as a .500 team is "emotionally hedging" in your mind.  It seems obvious to me that this team isn't ready for the deep playoff run you seem to be looking for.  I think it would be equally obvious to you if the roster being reviewed was any other franchise.

The whole point is that unless you considered 2022 a rebuilding year (with the new WR room and OL injuries), thinking of 2023 as rebuilding is pure emotional hedging.

The 2023 roster is OBVIOUSLY better top to bottom than 2022 week 1. With the possible exception of QB. If you think Love is a bottom 5 QB in the league, we're worse at QB compared to 2022, sure. Also mayyybe edge because of Gary's injury to start this year. Otherwise, convince us how this team is less capable than the 2022 team - which no one described as 'rebuilding' or conferred an idea of incapable of competing before the year started.

[Refugee]

1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

This is not the issue though. The issue is there some fans choose to believe we're actually incapable of competing for a SB in 2023 and label the season as such. It's not an issue of probability, it's just outright dismissal of any chance (and calling it a 'rebuilding' year or other phrase to communicate the same idea).

OBJECTIVELY, we're just as likely to compete in 2023 as we ACTUALLY did in 2022, a year no one would describe as "rebuilding". Thus, the term has almost no meaning whatsoever. At least when applied to this team. 

I am not trying to take either side, although I am generally optimistic this time of year because, why not? There will be a huge change starting at QB who has basically been the identity of the team, people are naturally apprehensive. The change could be a good one and we could definitely beat last year’s 8-9 but we are clearing cap and in uncharted territory at the most important position on the field. I accept some fans don’t think we have a shot. I love Nixon’s mindset, players should have no doubt they are here to win every game. 

[incognito_man]

3 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Haven't dismissed yours for a second. You're the one doing all of that. Glad you think we can win the SB this year, that's what you want to feel as a fan. I don't and you can't seem to handle it.

If you think we literally CAN NOT win the SB, you're not allowed to participate in any GB postseason games this year. 

This black and white take is just utter nonsense. League has been literally dominated by young QBs with talented rosters lately. That's what we have right now. 

Joe Burrow and the Bengals had no shot at SB

Neither did Jalen Hurts and the Eagles

Mahomes had no shot of throwing over 30 TDs his first year starting

Rams had no shot with Jared Goff

etc etc

Just pure emotional hedging to think this team is rebuilding more this year than any other overall or have "no shot" at a SB. There's no objectivity present in this thread that shows WHY or HOW GBs SB odds are less than 3% or so. 

Every year is more probable than not a team won't make the super bowl, or championship game, or divisional round of the playoffs. 

If GB has as little hope as you seem to think, it should be really really easy to prove. $57 million in dead cap? I guess Philly at $54 in dead cap has no chance, either, right? Or is that an irrelevant data point?

[Packerraymond]

4 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

The whole point is that unless you considered 2022 a rebuilding year (with the new WR room and OL injuries), thinking of 2023 as rebuilding is pure emotional hedging.

The 2023 roster is OBVIOUSLY better top to bottom than 2022 week 1. With the possible exception of QB. If you think Love is a bottom 5 QB in the league, we're worse at QB compared to 2022, sure. Also mayyybe edge because of Gary's injury to start this year. Otherwise, convince us how this team is less capable than the 2022 team - which no one described as 'rebuilding' or conferred an idea of incapable of competing before the year started.

Come on.

We have no idea about QB, S, DL, WR or TE. We lost every vet we had there and are depending on unproven players.

OL is clearly better as we have health there. RB is a push. CB I'll even give you a push even though 2022 had a healthy Stokes. ILB I'll give you as Quay is in year 2, but Campbell is deteriorating. EDGE is clearly worse without our best EDGE.

If you think people inside the walls of 1265 are this confident, that's what's funny. I hope by the end of 2023 we can confidently say we're way better than the end of 2022, but this right here is just Kool aid sippin'.

 

 

[Packerraymond]

Just now, incognito_man said:

If you think we literally CAN NOT win the SB, you're not allowed to participate in any GB postseason games this year. 

This black and white take is just utter nonsense. League has been literally dominated by young QBs with talented rosters lately. That's what we have right now. 

Joe Burrow and the Bengals had no shot at SB

Neither did Jalen Hurts and the Eagles

Mahomes had no shot of throwing over 30 TDs his first year starting

Rams had no shot with Jared Goff

etc etc

Just pure emotional hedging to think this team is rebuilding more this year than any other overall or have "no shot" at a SB. There's no objectivity present in this thread that shows WHY or HOW GBs SB odds are less than 3% or so. 

Every year is more probable than not a team won't make the super bowl, or championship game, or divisional round of the playoffs. 

If GB has as little hope as you seem to think, it should be really really easy to prove. $57 million in dead cap? I guess Philly at $54 in dead cap has no chance, either, right? Or is that an irrelevant data point?

Lol so this is all about you being Lloyd Christmas? There is literally a chance we win the Super Bowl. There's also literally a chance the Bears, Texans or Cardinals win the Super Bowl. We're+6600 right now according to Vegas, so 66 to 1, that 1 is the chance. Not a very strong one.

[incognito_man]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

Come on.

We have no idea about QB, S, DL, WR or TE. We lost every vet we had there and are depending on unproven players.

OL is clearly better as we have health there. RB is a push. CB I'll even give you a push even though 2022 had a healthy Stokes. ILB I'll give you as Quay is in year 2, but Campbell is deteriorating. EDGE is clearly worse without our best EDGE.

If you think people inside the walls of 1265 are this confident, that's what's funny. I hope by the end of 2023 we can confidently say we're way better than the end of 2022, but this right here is just Kool aid sippin'.

 

 

What safety that we lost played well in 2022?

What DL did we lose that played well?

Listing WR and TE as positions we didn't get enormously better at heading into 2023 is a weird choice. 

Again, you're kidna proving my entire point: fans generally have NO CLUE what year they will or will not be "rebuilding". How can you trust your gut feeling about what team can or literally can not compete when a team you felt sure could in 2022 was laughably far away? Doesn't that tell you that you're perhaps looking at the wrong data points to gauge when a team is and is not "competitive"?

[incognito_man]

2 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Lol so this is all about you being Lloyd Christmas? There is literally a chance we win the Super Bowl. There's also literally a chance the Bears, Texans or Cardinals win the Super Bowl. We're+6600 right now according to Vegas, so 66 to 1, that 1 is the chance. Not a very strong one.

No. It's calling out the idea that fans can determine FOR A FACT that a team CANNOT compete in a given year. That is what is happening here. Call it rebuilding, whatever. Some fans are choosing to mentally assign a MUCH smaller likelihood of success in 2023 than they did in 2022. For one simple reason: emotional hedging. 

The entire point is that our odds in 2023 are just are good as they actually were in 2022. Objectively. So it's totally senseless to assign much lower odds in 2023 than one did in 2022. The only explanation for doing so is emotional hedging. Truly objective analysis would not result in a significant difference in SB odds between the 2022 team and the 2023 team.

[Packerraymond]

4 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

What safety that we lost played well in 2022?

What DL did we lose that played well?

Listing WR and TE as positions we didn't get enormously better at heading into 2023 is a weird choice. 

Again, you're kidna proving my entire point: fans generally have NO CLUE what year they will or will not be "rebuilding". How can you trust your gut feeling about what team can or literally can not compete when a team you felt sure could in 2022 was laughably far away? Doesn't that tell you that you're perhaps looking at the wrong data points to gauge when a team is and is not "competitive"?

So league average players departing are automatically improved upon by draft picks who have never started a game? Thats a fun alternate reality.

[packfanfb]

2 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Come on.

We have no idea about QB, S, DL, WR or TE. We lost every vet we had there and are depending on unproven players.

 

I agree we lost some guys, but again, my primary pushback on the "rebuilding" narrative is that we really haven't lost anyone worth caring about in a generalized respect. To put it another way, in 2022 we lost Davante Adams. I'll die on the hill that losing Adams is of greater weight than the collective sum of Lazard+Cobb+Lewis+Lowry+Reed+Amos+Tonyan. The fact that those latter guys are "proven" players doesn't mean much...most of them were average players, on their best days, whether they had proved that or not. None of them are above replacement, even with younger talent, and none of them should impact the W-L column like losing an Adams did last year. 

To me, this entire narrative starts and stops with Love. If Love plays at 2022 Rodgers level or better, we won't feel or even notice the loss of a single other guy who has left this roster in 2023 (other than maybe Crosby if Carlson sucks). Conversely, if Love is bad, it won't matter who else is on offense and we can just be glad we cut the fat when we did to save some extra money. 

[Packerraymond]

4 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

No. It's calling out the idea that fans can determine FOR A FACT that a team CANNOT compete in a given year. That is what is happening here. Call it rebuilding, whatever. Some fans are choosing to mentally assign a MUCH smaller likelihood of success in 2023 than they did in 2022. For one simple reason: emotional hedging. 

The entire point is that our odds in 2023 are just are good as they actually were in 2022. Objectively. So it's totally senseless to assign much lower odds in 2023 than one did in 2022. The only explanation for doing so is emotional hedging. Truly objective analysis would not result in a significant difference in SB odds between the 2022 team and the 2023 team.

Why is Vegas giving me much higher odds? They emotional hedging too? 

[incognito_man]

3 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

So league average players departing are automatically improved upon by draft picks who have never started a game? Thats a fun alternate reality.

Nope. But guess what, year 2 jumps count along with new bodies.

[incognito_man]

1 minute ago, Packerraymond said:

Why is Vegas giving me much higher odds? They emotional hedging too? 

How much higher? Are they infinite odds? Are they saying GB has no chance?

[{Family Ghost}]

35 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Haven't dismissed yours for a second. You're the one doing all of that. Glad you think we can win the SB this year, that's what you want to feel as a fan. I don't and you can't seem to handle it.

Yeah .. we ain't winning a super bowl this year. We will be lucky to have a winning record. 

[Packerraymond]

31 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

I agree we lost some guys, but again, my primary pushback on the "rebuilding" narrative is that we really haven't lost anyone worth caring about in a generalized respect. To put it another way, in 2022 we lost Davante Adams. I'll die on the hill that losing Adams is of greater weight than the collective sum of Lazard+Cobb+Lewis+Lowry+Reed+Amos+Tonyan. The fact that those latter guys are "proven" players doesn't mean much...most of them were average players, on their best days, whether they had proved that or not. None of them are above replacement, even with younger talent, and none of them should impact the W-L column like losing an Adams did last year. 

To me, this entire narrative starts and stops with Love. If Love plays at 2022 Rodgers level or better, we won't feel or even notice the loss of a single other guy who has left this roster in 2023 (other than maybe Crosby if Carlson sucks). Conversely, if Love is bad, it won't matter who else is on offense and we can just be glad we cut the fat when we did to save some extra money. 

I agree we could be better. Incog said "obviously" better, and that's not true. We hope the young guys are better than league average, but many will bust, that's the nature of the game.