Absolute value of 2018 NFL Draft Prospects

[NudeTayne]

So I've been hearing about this being a weaker draft class overall, especially compared to last year.  Is this the case or is this a narrative? A little of both? Specifically, I am wondering how many players in the 2018 draft class have an actual first round value, second round value etc. Most on here seem to be in agreement that there are very few elite players in this draft, a few fewer first rounders than usual and then a lot of second-fourth round value. 

I decided to go with my gut and do a quick ranking of where I would slot these players in an average overall draft class. What's yours?  How does this affect draft strategy? 

Elite (top-10 talent; 6 total)

Saquon / Sam D / Rosen / Baker / Q. Nelson / Tremaine

High first (top 20; 12 total)

Elite 6 / Denzel Ward / Bradley Chubb / Minkah / McGlinchey / Marcus Davenport / Roquon

First round talent (Top 32; 30 total)

High first 12 / Ridley / Sutton / Kirk / DJ Moore / Michel / Royce Freeman / Mark Walton / Billy Price / Will Hernandez / Josh Jackson / Carlton Davis / Mike Hughes / Derwin / Vita Vea / Maurice Hurst / Daron Payne / Rashaan Evans / Harold Landry / 

2nd round value (39 total--25 offense, 14 defense) (69 players rated as worthy of top 64 pick) 

First round talent 30 / Lamar Jackson / Mason Rudolph / Josh Allen / Mike White / Luke Falk / Guice / Ronald Jones II / Penny / Deon Cain / Anthony Miller / James Washington / Michael Gallup / Eq. St. Brown / Simmie Cobbs / Hayden Hurst / Mark Andrews / Mike Gesicki / Brian O'Neil / Connor Williams / Orlando Brown / Kolton Miller / Desmond Harrison / Isaiah Wynn / Frank Ragnow / James Daniels / Isaiah Oliver / MJ Stewart / Nick Nelson / Jaire Alexander / Tarvarus McFadden / Deshone Elliott / Ronnie Harrison / Marcus Allen / Leighton Vander Esch / Duke Ejiofor / Ogbonna Okoronkwo / Rasheem Greene / Derrick Nnadi / RJ McIntosh 

3rd round value (44 total; 18 offense, 26 defense) (113 players rated top 100 picks)

Kyle Lauletta / Nick Chubb / Josh Adams / DJ Chark / Antonio Callaway / Marcell Ateman / DaeSean Hamilton / Adam Breneman / Dalton Schultz / Dallas Goedert / Chuk Okorafor / Alex Cappa / Jamarco Jones / Tyrel Crosby / Braden Smith / Will Clapp / Sean Welsh / Bradley Bozeman / Darius Leonard / Tegray Scales / Dorian O'Daniel / Malik Jefferson / Dorian Armstrong / Adonis Alexander / Anthony Averett / Sam Beal / J.C. Jackson / Jamarcus King / Darious Williams / Duke Dawson / D.J. Reed / Kevin Tolliver / Armani Watts / Jordan Whitehead / Trayvon Henderson / Justin Reid / Kameron Kelly / Terrelle Edmunds / Sam Hubbard / Tyquon Lewis / Hercules Mata'afa / Justin Jones / Trenton Thompson / Dashawn Hand / 

So this is just my current board and yours is likely different. From the above, I'd like to get some extra early third to early fourth rounders for maximum value. I'm also down to find a way to draft three times in the top 15ish, as I believe at least one of my top 20 valued players (12 total) makes it to 15.

[FGK]

This looks about right to me. Weak top 10 (outside of QB, praise the Lord). Strong 2nd-early 4th round range.

[MWil23]

Unfortunately it’s a great draft to need interior OL, which we don’t need, and a terrible draft to get a WR high, which we do need.

I personally think it’s a great RB and deep DB draft, both of which we desperately need. If we don’t draft about 4-5 RB and DB then I’ll be disappointed, unless we address these in free agency.

I also love Darnold as a QB, so I don’t see why we can’t make our first 2-3 picks count.

[NudeTayne]

52 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

This looks about right to me. Weak top 10 (outside of QB, praise the Lord). Strong 2nd-early 4th round range.

Why do you think so many are down on this draft class? Is it just because there aren't many clearly elite prospects? 

 

6 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Unfortunately it’s a great draft to need interior OL, which we don’t need, and a terrible draft to get a WR high, which we do need.

I personally think it’s a great RB and deep DB draft, both of which we desperately need. If we don’t draft about 4-5 RB and DB then I’ll be disappointed, unless we address these in free agency.

I also love Darnold as a QB, so I don’t see why we can’t make our first 2-3 picks count.

 What do you think about the murmurs of moving Bitonio to LT if Joe retires and grabbing a franchise guy like Nelson with a smaller trade down from #4 or another guy in the second with same idea in mind? I don't know if we have a quality LT on the roster once Joe retires. I also don't know if I see that guy in the draft. Hmm...

[NudeTayne]

Double post

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

1 minute ago, NudeTayne said:

Why do you think so many are down on this draft class? Is it just because there aren't many clearly elite prospects? 

Lack of elite prospects at premium positions which are positions of need for us such as CB, WR, LT, or EDGE

1 minute ago, NudeTayne said:

 

 What do you think about the murmurs of moving Bitonio to LT if Joe retires and grabbing a franchise guy like Nelson with a smaller trade down from #4 or another guy in the second with same idea in mind? I don't know if we have a quality LT on the roster once Joe retires. I also don't know if I see that guy in the draft. Hmm...

The idea of drafting interior OL at 4 makes my head hurt.  Overkill imo, well past the point of diminishing returns.

[NudeTayne]

6 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Lack of elite prospects at premium positions which are positions of need for us such as CB, WR, LT, or EDGE

The idea of drafting interior OL at 4 makes my head hurt.  Overkill imo, well past the point of diminishing returns.

I meant with a trade back to 8 or so, fwiw. But yes, it'd be a hard left turn if we grab OL high. That said, what if Joe retires? He might. And then...Shon Coleman on the blindside? 

[TheeRealDeal]

If there are 30 legit 1st round prospect this year then this is one of the most stacked draft classes ever really. Any given year any given team has between 16 and 20 players ranked as 1st rounders. The hit rates from 20-45 are marginally different when studying out the history of the draft and for good reason because the plays in that range are for the most part equally talented. Those are typically the 2nd round talents and most years the 2nd round talents run out around pick 45. Unfortunately for teams that have picks that fall in the back half of a round cannot just toll their pick into the next year so they must make a pick. They cannot say well there are no 1st rounders so we are going to pass. They have to pick someone.

 

I do get what you are saying though I just wanted to put the truth out there about how few true 1st round talents are in each draft. It works much the same way for the big picture as well. Most teams have 180-200 draft-able players(and that is the very high end) even though there are 256ish pick each year. Many teams know they are drafting free agent type in the 6th and 7th rounds and that the odds of them even making the team are slim to none but a pick has got to be made.

[MWil23]

6 minutes ago, NudeTayne said:

Why do you think so many are down on this draft class? Is it just because there aren't many clearly elite prospects? 

I think it has to do with the lack of dynamic WR and OT personally.

6 minutes ago, NudeTayne said:

 What do you think about the murmurs of moving Bitonio to LT if Joe retires and grabbing a franchise guy like Nelson with a smaller trade down from #4 or another guy in the second with same idea in mind? I don't know if we have a quality LT on the roster once Joe retires. I also don't know if I see that guy in the draft. Hmm...

I’m usually against moving interior OL to the outside. I think it’s also a mistake as that is bad value drafting a guy that high as an OG. Plus I love Bitonio but an injury prone guy moving to OT makes me nervous.

Also we desperately need dynamic skill players and not more linemen.

[NudeTayne]

8 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I think it has to do with the lack of dynamic WR and OT personally.

I’m usually against moving interior OL to the outside. I think it’s also a mistake as that is bad value drafting a guy that high as an OG. Plus I love Bitonio but an injury prone guy moving to OT makes me nervous.

Also we desperately need dynamic skill players and not more linemen.

I agree on all of this--was more just opening yup the Bitonio convo because a few others mentioned it. That said, really, what do we do if Joe retires? I am not confident in the rest of our LTs.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

5 minutes ago, NudeTayne said:

I meant with a trade back to 8 or so, fwiw. But yes, it'd be a hard left turn if we grab OL high. That said, what if Joe retires? He might. And then...Shon Coleman on the blindside? 

Yeah, if he retires it ups the need, but I thought Drango and Coleman played well enough to win games.

I wouldn’t mind taking a LEFT TACKLE at 4, but there isn’t one worth that pick from what I’ve seen.  That’s a premium position that would warrant such an investment.

[NudeTayne]

5 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Yeah, if he retires it ups the need, but I thought Drango and Coleman played well enough to win games.

I wouldn’t mind taking a LEFT TACKLE at 4, but there isn’t one worth that pick from what I’ve seen.  That’s a premium position that would warrant such an investment.

That's kind of what I was meaning to get at, that there isn't clearly a guy I  free agency or worth pick four. I'm not so sure our guys would be any more than a bandage at the position, but that may be fine long term, as the 2019 draft will both have better tackle prospects and subsequently precedes a season we are more likely to compete in. 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

Just now, NudeTayne said:

That's kind of what I was meaning to get at, that there isn't clearly a guy I  free agency or worth pick four. I'm not so sure our guys would be any more than a bandage at the position, but that may be fine long term, as the 2019 draft will both have better tackle prospects and subsequently precedes a season we are more likely to compete in. 

I think you look at picks 33, 35, 64, 65 as possible spots to get the next LT at this point.

Teams can win a super bowl without 1st rounders along the whole OL regardless of what old curmudgeons in Cleveland believe.

[FGK]

18 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Lack of elite prospects at premium positions which are positions of need for us such as CB, WR, LT, or EDGE

I'd disagree about CB, but the rest for sure. My internet just ate my post, but I think there are at least 7-8 potential starting CBs in the first couple rounds of the draft.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

6 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

I'd disagree about CB, but the rest for sure. My internet just ate my post, but I think there are at least 7-8 potential starting CBs in the first couple rounds of the draft.

Starters? Agreed.  But I don’t see a Patrick Peterson, Jalen Ramsey, etc type of “blue chip” prospect.