Minor Niner News Thread

[Chrissooner49er]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaait a second, good sir. I call shenanigans...Dumervil didn't play for Oklahoma in college. 

Had a good laugh on that one! Of course he didn't. I don't just push for Sooners...see my '18 draft crush: Quenton Nelson. Instead, we took the guy next to him. 

[big9erfan]

5 hours ago, PapaShogun said:

Not for me. A first round player for me needs to approach Pro Bowl level play. Lawson was never close to that, and I can't be content with mediocrity thinking "well it could have been worse". Fact is it could have been better. 

Of course you'd like to pick a pro bowler in the first. That's the goal. But of course teams miss on their picks all the time. If you call anyone failing to approach pro bowl level a "bust" then the vast majority of picks are busts. If that's your definition, then fine. But that seems like a really harsh way to define "bust". In the continuum of how a guy can perfrom from say AJ Jenkins or Jamarcus Russell, to a multiple time Pro Bowler, Lawson falls solidly in the middle, or even higher than the middle of that continuum. To me, "busts" are way further down on that continuum.

 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

5 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:

Well, with the benefit of hindsight, no team would be trading since they know immediately they'll get a worse player. And since you feel you need a Pro Bowler in the first, your options at #22 are likely down to Vince Young, Jay Cutler, Joseph Addai, Michael Robinson, Leon Washington, Marcedes Lewis, Stephen Gostkowski, and Sam Koch. What fabulous upgrade are you making?

There are loads of dudes from that draft I'd take before Lawson even if it's just BPA pick. Even if you just went by players who made at least one Pro Bowl by the 22 mark, you'd have someone that still made at least one Pro Bowl at 22. Including free agents.

[AustrianNiner]

This is as minor as it gets, but there is a cooperation in places between the 49ers enterprises and english football club Leeds United, which will see Leeds playing some games at Levi's stadium and Paraag Marathe joining the directors board of Leeds. Not sure what the 49ers gain from it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/amp/football/44236885?__twitter_impression=true

[y2lamanaki]

10 hours ago, PapaShogun said:

There are loads of dudes from that draft I'd take before Lawson even if it's just BPA pick. Even if you just went by players who made at least one Pro Bowl by the 22 mark, you'd have someone that still made at least one Pro Bowl at 22. Including free agents.

Yeah, I gave you a list of such guys -

Vince Young, Jay Cutler, Joseph Addai, Michael Robinson, Leon Washington, Marcedes Lewis, Stephen Gostkowski, and Sam Koch

Which one do you want? Because for Pro Bowlers, that doesn't seem like a list of players remarkably better than Lawson. You didn't necessarily jump for any of them. You alluded to wanting other players the other teams picking in hindsight also would have taken. 

But the whole activity is stupid and meaningless, because obviously teams weren't going to draft players in order of greatness or draft mid, late, or even undrafted prospects early. The idea that Marques Colston should have been the pick at #6 overall instead of Vernon Davis (approximately the 6th best player at the same position of need) makes for an interesting redraft article but has no basis in reality. Not to mention that late round guys drafted without the pressure of being first rounders suddenly have it, and those who came in with a chip on their shoulder suddenly lose it. And I think it's likely without question that guys like Colston might have radically different careers if they're suddenly transplanted from Super Bowl-level teams with HOF QBs to teams run by offensive geniuses like Hoestler and Raye.

In the 2006 class, Pro-Football-Reference ranks Manny Lawson 41st in the class in career approximate value. It's not a perfect system, but one of the better ways to rank careers of players across positions. An overdraft? Sure, but not like it was anywhere near actual draft busts from that class like Matt Leinart, Bobby Carpenter, or Tye Hill. And of the 40 guys ahead of him, 15 of those players were drafted more than 2 full rounds later than Lawson. Meaning- of all the guys drafted within the first three rounds, the team drafted the 26th best player at pick #22. That's hardly worth batting an eye over.

They drafted a perfectly average guy. 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

2 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:

Yeah, I gave you a list of such guys -

Vince Young, Jay Cutler, Joseph Addai, Michael Robinson, Leon Washington, Marcedes Lewis, Stephen Gostkowski, and Sam Koch

Which one do you want? Because for Pro Bowlers, that doesn't seem like a list of players remarkably better than Lawson. You didn't necessarily jump for any of them. You alluded to wanting other players the other teams picking in hindsight also would have taken. 

But the whole activity is stupid and meaningless, because obviously teams weren't going to draft players in order of greatness or draft mid, late, or even undrafted prospects early. The idea that Marques Colston should have been the pick at #6 overall instead of Vernon Davis (approximately the 6th best player at the same position of need) makes for an interesting redraft article but has no basis in reality. Not to mention that late round guys drafted without the pressure of being first rounders suddenly have it, and those who came in with a chip on their shoulder suddenly lose it. And I think it's likely without question that guys like Colston might have radically different careers if they're suddenly transplanted from Super Bowl-level teams with HOF QBs to teams run by offensive geniuses like Hoestler and Raye.

In the 2006 class, Pro-Football-Reference ranks Manny Lawson 41st in the class in career approximate value. It's not a perfect system, but one of the better ways to rank careers of players across positions. An overdraft? Sure, but not like it was anywhere near actual draft busts from that class like Matt Leinart, Bobby Carpenter, or Tye Hill. And of the 40 guys ahead of him, 15 of those players were drafted more than 2 full rounds later than Lawson. Meaning- of all the guys drafted within the first three rounds, the team drafted the 26th best player at pick #22. That's hardly worth batting an eye over.

They drafted a perfectly average guy. 

And I wasn't going by the list you concocted, which excludes a lot of players I'd rather pick at 22 overall if there was a fantasy redraft. Guys you didn't mention: Marques Colston, Tramon Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Nick Mangold, Marcus McNeil, Andrew Whitworth, Greg Jennings, Owen Daniels, Jhari Evans, Kyle Williams, Lawrence Vickers, Cortland Finnegan, Antonie Bethea, Ahmad Brooks, Donald Penn, Miles Austin, or Brent Grimes. All guys picked after Lawson that had better careers. If you include guys picked before Lawson that had at least decent careers, I'd still have my pick of someone I think is better as a BPA when Lawson is picked at 22 easily. Again, loads of dudes I could pick at that spot now that we know how things played out. Maybe some these guys going to different teams don't pan out due to circumstance, but I'd gladly take my chances with the power of hindsight at my disposal. 

Sure Lawson wasn't as bad a bust as Leinart or Tye Hill. He can still be a bust though without being the worst of the bunch. He was a first round disappointment that never lived up to the expectations he was projected to have coming out of college on any of the teams he played on in the NFL. First round picks aren't supposed to be used on dudes that will pan out as average. That's a bust for me. Same with JJ Stokes or R.W. McQuarters.

Edited May 24, 2018 by PapaShogun

[y2lamanaki]

1 hour ago, PapaShogun said:

Marques Colston, Tramon Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Nick Mangold, Marcus McNeil, Andrew Whitworth, Greg Jennings, Owen Daniels, Jhari Evans, Kyle Williams, Lawrence Vickers, Cortland Finnegan, Antonie Bethea, Ahmad Brooks, Donald Penn, Miles Austin, or Brent Grimes.

Ahmad Brooks wasn't in the 2006 draft. He was a supplemental pick and could not have been taken at #22 (a real problem that comes from a quick scan of Wikipedia for your draft knowledge, as no other source would stupidly include picks counted in 2007 in a 2006 listing).

And I counted those other guys. But the problem with hindsight is you don't get to choose top 20 players at pick #22 because the other teams in front of you would have chosen them already.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

11 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

Ahmad Brooks wasn't in the 2006 draft. He was a supplemental pick and could not have been taken at #22 (a real problem that comes from a quick scan of Wikipedia for your draft knowledge, as no other source would stupidly include picks counted in 2007 in a 2006 listing).

And I counted those other guys. But the problem with hindsight is you don't get to choose top 20 players at pick #22 because the other teams in front of you would have chosen them already.

I know Brooks was a supplemental pick. But he came out in 2006, and he had a better career. That was my point. 

But there are only 21 teams picking ahead of me. By the time pick 22 rolls around, I'd still have my selection of players that had better output than Lawson did. There were clearly more than 22 players that were better than Lawson from the 2006 draft, and I shouldn't have to list all of them. I thought I outlined that clearly in my last post. Guess not. 

Edited May 24, 2018 by PapaShogun

[y2lamanaki]

1 hour ago, PapaShogun said:

Sure Lawson wasn't as bad a bust as Leinart or Tye Hill. He can still be a bust though without being the worst of the bunch.

Okay - find me one other source that uses this definition, and maybe I'll consider it valid. You find me another source that considers Manny Lawson a draft bust, and maybe I will see this as something that doesn't mirror a lunatic shouting in the middle of Times Square that the earth being round is really just a government conspiracy.

Otherwise, I will continue to classify it as ludicrous.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

3 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

Okay - find me one other source that uses this definition, and maybe I'll consider it valid. You find me another source that considers Manny Lawson a draft bust, and maybe I will see this as something that doesn't mirror a lunatic shouting in the middle of Times Square that the earth being round is really just a government conspiracy.

Otherwise, I will continue to classify it as ludicrous.

Sorry buddy you don't make the rules, nor does anyone else for my opinion since I don't live by argumentum ad populum. And I don't care if you think it's ludicrous. Manny Lawson is a bust for the 49ers, and it's quite simple for reasons I already outlined. You don't like it, well that's just too bad. 

Edited May 24, 2018 by PapaShogun

[y2lamanaki]

7 minutes ago, PapaShogun said:

I know Brooks was a supplemental pick. But he came out in 2006, and he had a better career. That was my point. 

Seems odd to change your point from "I'd rather pick any of these guys" to "here's a list of better guys who happened to enter the league at the same time" totally unprompted, but this whole discussion is bizarre to me, so what do I know?

[y2lamanaki]

2 minutes ago, PapaShogun said:

Sorry buddy you don't make the rules, nor does anyone else for my opinion since I don't live by argumentum ad populum. And I don't care if you think it's ludicrous. Manny Lawson is a bust for the 49ers, and it's quite simple for reasons I already outlined. You don't like it, well that's just too bad. 

So you admit that this is just solely your opinion and not based on any pre-established criteria any other rational being would use? 

I'm okay with that. 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

Just now, y2lamanaki said:

Seems odd to change your point from "I'd rather pick any of these guys" to "here's a list of better guys who happened to enter the league at the same time" totally unprompted, but this whole discussion is bizarre to me, so what do I know?

Oh, I guess both those ideas have to be mutually exclusive. Ok. 

[y2lamanaki]

Just now, PapaShogun said:

Oh, I guess both those ideas have to be mutually exclusive. Ok. 

This sounds like sarcasm, but obviously the 49ers could not pick someone not even in the draft over Manny Lawson, so yes - they are mutually exclusive.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

Just now, y2lamanaki said:

So you admit that this is just solely your opinion and not based on any pre-established criteria any other rational being would use? 

I'm okay with that. 

It's a football forum. We're talking about NFL Draft selections and their careers. It should go without saying that everyone's commentary here on a topic like this will be opinion based. Welcome to the internet and enjoy your stay. Doesn't mean it can't be based on any pre established criteria. I already outlined mine. You just don't agree with it.