The Baker Mayfield Conundrum

[bomont]

I never said he had accuracy issues, but thx.

[barnaby8787]

2 minutes ago, bomont said:

I never said he had accuracy issues, but thx.

I never said you did.  But you said a QB needs to be a smart, accurate passer and that you don't know much beyond the stats.  I was saying if you looked just at the stats or listened to people complain about his accuracy, it doesn't paint the whole picture.

[bomont]

Still lost me.  His accuracy stats looked pretty respectable as I recall.  Not dazzling, but respectable.

[barnaby8787]

1 minute ago, bomont said:

Still lost me.  His accuracy stats looked pretty respectable as I recall.  Not dazzling, but respectable.

They're under 60%.  BTW, hit quote next time bud.  I'm following this for now, but if you reply to someone and don't quote it, they likely won't see it.

[bomont]

Barely under 60%.  And improved each year.

And if you're following the thread, you'll see it.   

[Chrissooner49er]

Colin Kaepernick is quite the athlete...how did that work out? He was a flash in the pan. Once Defenses learned how to deal with his athleticism, he was ineffective and steadily declined in production. So, before you tout Lamar as an incredible athlete, make certain he can adjust when the Defenses do...we will have to wait and see. 

 

[jg77]

47 minutes ago, Chrissooner49er said:

Colin Kaepernick is quite the athlete...how did that work out? He was a flash in the pan. Once Defenses learned how to deal with his athleticism, he was ineffective and steadily declined in production. So, before you tout Lamar as an incredible athlete, make certain he can adjust when the Defenses do...we will have to wait and see. 

 

There is an enormous difference between a straight line runner RG3/Kaep and an elusive runner Wilson/Vick/Lamar.

[Broncofan]

12 hours ago, barnaby8787 said:

BTW, hit quote next time bud.  I'm following this for now, but if you reply to someone and don't quote it, they likely won't see it.

 

 

12 hours ago, bomont said:

 

And if you're following the thread, you'll see it.   

 

FWIW, if a thread is popular in volume, it could be 3-4 pages back, or way more, depending on when the poster checks back in.    Quotes never are a bad thing.

[barnaby8787]

1 hour ago, Chrissooner49er said:

Colin Kaepernick is quite the athlete...how did that work out? He was a flash in the pan. Once Defenses learned how to deal with his athleticism, he was ineffective and steadily declined in production. So, before you tout Lamar as an incredible athlete, make certain he can adjust when the Defenses do...we will have to wait and see. 

 

Ok, and Russell Wilson?  

[Chrissooner49er]

15 minutes ago, barnaby8787 said:

Ok, and Russell Wilson?  

Why? Nothing bad to say about him. He's got the savvy to be a true QB, not just an athlete. He's proven that, already...much to my 9ers' dismay.

[VanS]

On 4/23/2018 at 8:57 PM, barnaby8787 said:

He was actually throwing the ball shorter distances.

 

@evansilva

FollowFollow @evansilva

More

A popular defense of Josh Allen's low completion % is that he didn't throw screen passes. However, Allen threw a higher rate of passes 0-5 yards from the line of scrimmage (30%) than Darnold, Rosen & Mayfield

I'm sorry but I find this extremely hard to believe.  Maybe I sampled games that were extreme outliers but from what I've seen actually watching his games, he's throwing high degree of difficulty throws down the field far more often than any other QB in this class.  While when I watch Mayfield I see a plethora of short passes and swing passes that make it hard to watch Mayfield's film because it shows no correlation to what he'll be asked to do in the NFL.

Guess we'll know one way or another whether or not to believe stats from now on when it comes to college QBs.  Because it seems as though the stats are saying Josh Allen has no chance to be a great QB in the NFL.   While from what I've seen and many other scouts agree that this guy is the best QB in the class.

I guess only time will tell who is right and who is wrong.

[VanS]

On 4/24/2018 at 9:12 AM, Chrissooner49er said:

Colin Kaepernick is quite the athlete...how did that work out? He was a flash in the pan. Once Defenses learned how to deal with his athleticism, he was ineffective and steadily declined in production. So, before you tout Lamar as an incredible athlete, make certain he can adjust when the Defenses do...we will have to wait and see. 

 

There's different levels to athleticism.  Colin Kaepernick did not have Lamar's agility and make you miss ability.  If you can't see that Lamar's athleticism is extremely unique and something we haven't seen since Michael Vick, then I can't help you.

Lamar Jackson is good enough to dominate the NFL with his insane athleticism and simply adequate passing.  I actually think he has the potential to be better than just being adequate as a passer.  But even if he doesn't improve his mechanics and stays the same player we've seen at Louisville, that's good enough to be a very good starting QB in the NFL with moments where he can put a team on his back and lead them deep into the playoffs like Michael Vick did in Atlanta during his early years.

[VanS]

On 4/23/2018 at 9:24 PM, bomont said:

I don't care if he's the most athletic human being in the history of the world, my point stands. Vick barely passed for more TDs than INTs most years.  Let's not pretend that didn't matter, and all his scrambling/running could only make up for that so much.  Newton has similar issues.

A QB must above all be a smart, accurate PASSER.  Being able to run is icing on the cake.  You need the cake first.

As for Jackson, can't say.  tbh I haven't seen enough of him to know much past the stats. 

I guess if you didn't like Michael Vick and wouldn't want him to be your franchise QB, then you won't like Lamar Jackson.  I actually don't agree with your assessment of Vick.  Yes, he didn't pass for many yards or TDs, but he did win games.  And he did carry a team that was not very good to the NFC Championship Game (beating Green Bay on the road in the playoffs along the way....something no one had ever done before in NFL history).  He was not perfect by any means, but he was a good franchise QB and more than validated being a 1st round pick.  Yes the way he won those games was unconventional by doing it mainly as a runner.  At the end of the day, the goal isn't to get pretty passing stats as a QB, the goal is to WIN.  And Michael Vick was a winner. 

I believe Lamar Jackson can also be a winning QB in the NFL.  He might do it unconventionally like Michael Vick.  But at the end of the day, a win is a win.  And I don't care whether my QB gets that win passing for 300 yards and 3 TDs or running for 100 yards and 2 TDs.   Lamar Jackson will be a winning QB in the NFL.  I'm sure of that.  Just like Michael Vick.  And just like Cam Newton.

[CWood21]

On 4/23/2018 at 5:37 PM, VanS said:

With regard to Lamar Jackson, it is true that I am basing a large part of my grade on his athletic ability.  I'm doing that because its so extraordinary.  The reason other mobile QBs haven't succeeded is because they were not sublime athletes like Michael Vick.  Lamar Jackson is the only guy we've seen since Michael Vick with that level of athleticism.  That is why I'm grading him the way I am.  Its because I expect him to have that same impact as a runner that Vick had.  But in addition to his running, I believe his passing is better than Vick.  Unlike Vick who always wanted to run, Lamar actually wants to stay in the pocket, work through his progressions, and throw the ball down the field.  He's not looking to run as a first option.  Its a last resort for him.  And as a passer, he has better accuracy than Vick.  While he is streaky, when he gets it going, Lamar can spin the ball very well.  I think you'll be surprised by how good of a passer he turns out to be in the NFL. 

Sans Michael Vick, how many of those running QBs have sustained NFL success?

[CWood21]

On 4/23/2018 at 6:00 PM, KingOfTheDot said:

I have the same exact assessment of Allen. Guys use his completion percentage to judge his accuracy but he was throwing most of his pass 5 yards or less I'm sure he would have thrown 65%+

Allen was making difficult throws all over the field and should be ready to test NFL secondaries with his arm.

Let's go through his misses in the Boise State game.

1:03 - NFL caliber throw in a tighish window.  Have to give credit to defender on this one, but a better throw should have led to completion.
1:22 - Wasn't a drop, but just more evidence of his lack of accuracy.  That pass should have hit the back between the numbers, instead it was slightly off and the back had to reach for it.  If the back doesn't adjust, that's an interception.
3:08 - Throwaway pass because he was about to get tackled.  Good play.
3:40 - These are a deep pass that you're willing to live with because it's a play only the WR can make.  Despite it being an incompletion, that's a good throw that just needs a bit better touch.
4:06 - This one was literally one of the worst throws that Allen had in the game.  Any NFL DB would intercept that pass with how much air he put on it.
4:42 - This one is a bad throw because of the base he throws off of, but it's also one that gives you hope since this one was a miss that was a mechanical flaw.

There's more in there.  Does that 56% of his passes really show an accurate picture?  Probably not.  But he's not a hyper-accurate passer.  Hell, he's average at best.  He still has way too many WTF throws.