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Pandomonium

UDFA Steven Dunbar Jr.

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the only WR on the roster with some bulk and height 

God I hope this kid makes good in training camp and makes the roster

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24 minutes ago, Pandomonium said:

the only WR on the roster with some bulk and height 

God I hope this kid makes good in training camp and makes the roster

It's not a necessary component to an offense. Bigger, bulkier receivers tend to be long striders with an inability to create separation in close quarters because of it (they don't have the agility and short area quickness for the most part - there are exceptions of course, see Cooper Kupp). Those are not the type of receivers that Shanny likes. It's also not a requirement in the redzone. Without these type of receivers, you're basically trading in those jump balls and fade patterns with timing throws predicated on creating a small opening in a very short amount of time. 

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23 minutes ago, Forge said:

It's not a necessary component to an offense. Bigger, bulkier receivers tend to be long striders with an inability to create separation in close quarters because of it (they don't have the agility and short area quickness for the most part - there are exceptions of course, see Cooper Kupp). Those are not the type of receivers that Shanny likes. It's also not a requirement in the redzone. Without these type of receivers, you're basically trading in those jump balls and fade patterns with timing throws predicated on creating a small opening in a very short amount of time. 

so what happens when timing gets disrupted? 

the "greatest show on turf" rams had a bunch of slight framed WRs who thrived on timing patterns and getting in space.
and it was cool for a while until the rest of the league figured out "hey lets put a crap-ton of pressure on the QB and jam up those little slight frame guys and throw off the timing"

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9 minutes ago, Pandomonium said:

so what happens when timing gets disrupted? 

the "greatest show on turf" rams had a bunch of slight framed WRs who thrived on timing patterns and getting in space.
and it was cool for a while until the rest of the league figured out "hey lets put a crap-ton of pressure on the QB and jam up those little slight frame guys and throw off the timing"

That's why you need guys who can beat that jam, why Shanny is putting such an emphasis on these type of receivers, to create that space. It also helps that you have a quarterback who can check off the first progression. You may get the first read locked down..hard to get them all they way Shanny schemes. I present to you what happened against the best defense in the NFL:

1*N-UjTiI7YOlLihJXLUvM1A.gif

There's absolutely nothing Jax could do here. They took away the first two reads...but trying to cover little dudes like Taylor for a longer period of time, who can create space in such short quarters (and use their arms to help) is a hard task if you don't get to the quarterback. Taylor makes his turn, sees the back of the end zone covered but the WILL stepping up to go after the QB, and immediately button hooks it and heads to the opposite side of the defenders. He knows how to find that soft spot. 

Also, add in the fact that the prevailing theory is that the short yardage running should be improved this year. Richburg at center is an upgrade. McGlinchey may not be the pass protector that Trent Brown is, but even as a rookie he will be a significantly superior run blocker. 

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3 minutes ago, Forge said:

That's why you need guys who can beat that jam, why Shanny is putting such an emphasis on these type of receivers, to create that space. It also helps that you have a quarterback who can check off the first progression. You may get the first read locked down..hard to get them all they way Shanny schemes. I present to you what happened against the best defense in the NFL:

1*N-UjTiI7YOlLihJXLUvM1A.gif

There's absolutely nothing Jax could do here. They took away the first two reads...but trying to cover little dudes like Taylor for a longer period of time, who can create space in such short quarters (and use their arms to help) is a hard task if you don't get to the quarterback. Taylor makes his turn, sees the back of the end zone covered but the WILL stepping up to go after the QB, and immediately button hooks it and heads to the opposite side of the defenders. He knows how to find that soft spot. 

Also, add in the fact that the prevailing theory is that the short yardage running should be improved this year. Richburg at center is an upgrade. McGlinchey may not be the pass protector that Trent Brown is, but even as a rookie he will be a significantly superior run blocker. 

The only WR I see on our roster that can consistently beat the jam is Garcon

and I don't think our short yardage run game is going to be better either without a thumper Devante Freeman type of back in our stable.

also Jimmy almost got murdered on the very play you posted he got out of that because of sheer skill, however you can't count on every play to go like this one.

Also, If we don't need a 6'3" WR to be successful in our offense, Then why was this guy given a shot instead of another undersized, slight frame slot style WR that you believe is all we need?

I'm not saying you're wrong man, I just have doubts about your interpretation of Shanny's philosophy ...thats all

 

I mean hell, he had Julio's massive butt out there.

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Pandomonium said:

I mean hell, he had Julio's massive butt out there.

 

True, but that's hardly fair. Few individuals have Jones's skills/athleticism - and it's not like Shanny went out to find him. He was already there. If you go back to Cleveland, he made use of tiny Andrew Hawkins and Taylor Gabriel. In Washington, it was Garcon and Santana Moss. 

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1 hour ago, Pandomonium said:

The only WR I see on our roster that can consistently beat the jam is Garcon

 

Trent Taylor is pretty good at beating the jam...you also can't really jam the running backs, so it's going to be hard to keep up with them. 

1 hour ago, Pandomonium said:

and I don't think our short yardage run game is going to be better either without a thumper Devante Freeman type of back in our stable.

 

The notion that you need a thumper as a short yardage back is misguided. There's actually no data that truly supports it. Both big thumpers and smaller guys can struggle, just like both can very much succeed. For pure weight, the middle ground appeared to be where it was at (there was a solid article by grantland on this years ago which compared both weight and BMI to short yardage success). It's not always about the size down there. Danny Woodhead was an effective short yardage runner for years. One of the best ever was Priest Holmes, same for Marshall Faulk. Vision, moving forward (don't dance), these can play pivotal roles in your short yardage efficiency. Carlos hyde is 6'0, 230 pounds...never considered him particularly efficient as a short yardage back. Part of that could be the offensive line, but he also likes to dance too much. McKinnon isn't as small as you think - his listed playing weight is 215 pounds I believe  at 5'9" (he measured 209 at the combine). Priest Holmes? 5'9", 213 pounds. Faulk's playing measurements were 5'10, 210.

Want a running back more in line with McKinnon? How about Rex Burhead, who was crazy effective as the pats short yardage back last year and is 5'10, 214.   McKinnon is right there.  His size is not an issue. He's not as talented as a running back as the first two, but his size has no real bearing on whether or not he can succeed in the role (unfortunately, history with the Vikings doesn't suggest that he's a great goal line back, but potential other running backs, Breida / Williams / etc, may just be better in this situation. I actually have more concerns about the blocking scheme precluding us from being an effective short yardage team than the actual running backs on the roster. ZBS isn't exactly ideal for this since it often uses smaller offensive linemen).  

Also, that thumper in Devante Freeman you mentioned? He scored 5 times on 13 carries in 2016 from inside the 3 yard line (couldn't find 2017). Jeremy Hill, another noted "thumper" was 4/12. Those numbers are not good. In 2015, the top 4 most effective short yardage rushers in the NFL (minimum of 10 carries)? Jeremy Langford, Darren Sproles, Danny Woodhead, Ameer Abdullah. Outside of Langford, none of those guys would be considered thumpers. There is nothing that really supports the notion that you need to be a certain size to be successful in short yardage situations. The statistic can also be highly volatile and change pretty significantly year over year. 

1 hour ago, Pandomonium said:

also Jimmy almost got murdered on the very play you posted he got out of that because of sheer skill, however you can't count on every play to go like this one.

 

What are you talking about "almost got killed"? He had a nice amount of time to throw the ball as it was only a 3 man rush.  From snap to throw, it was 5 seconds. That's an ungodly amount of time. He was able to go through progressions, which is exactly what I was talking about earlier.  It's hard to cover these type of receivers that are good at creating space in small areas for that long.That's the benefit of having a good quarterback. You disrupt the first guy, and a good quarterback is still able to make the play because he can check off. Hell, they dropped 8  guys still couldn't cover guys who can create space in short areas. If you drop fewer than 8 maybe those first two reads aren't disrupted or you find an opening on the stacked side of the formation. There was a very similar play in the Titans game (can't find a gif) where they rushed 4 from the 5 yard line and Jimmy G went through his progressions, bought some time (I think that one was 7 seconds), and finally found Celek for the touchdown. 

As a defense, you have to make a choice. Drop more people into the smaller space, which will likely give the quarterback much more time to throw and the ability to buy time, or you can send more people on the rush and potentially struggle with covering guys who are good at creating separation in a very short period of time. Given Jimmy's super quick release, and his ability to read the field, that's a risky proposition as there is no guarantee you're going to get to him in time. 

 

1 hour ago, Pandomonium said:

Also, If we don't need a 6'3" WR to be successful in our offense, Then why was this guy given a shot instead of another undersized, slight frame slot style WR that you believe is all we need?

I feel like this is a trick question. I mean, maybe they just felt like that was a guy they really liked and he was the best available? I don't think that it's all that complex. I'm not saying that they never look at big receivers, I'm saying that having big receivers is not a necessary component to an offense, particularly this one, and if you're suggesting that they do believe that they need one because they signed an undrafted free agent, I think you need to take a second to think on how ridiculous that sounds. It's an undrafted free agent, you're throwing darts at a dartboard man. 

 

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Posted (edited)

I mean it's not like we drafted Pettis/James already who are slender....So it makes sense to bring in a different kind of WR to camp. And like Forge said, probably just the best available guy. We did the same last season with Tim Patrick who was like 6'5. 

You don't have to be big to beat press coverage. Does anyone beat press coverage better than Deandre Hopkins? How many better redzone WRs are there than Hopkins? A big misconception is you have to be a bigger guy to beat press coverage and be at threat in the red zone. Baldwin/Crabtree/Brown/Hopkins are all fantastic red zone WRs and all are barely just over 6 feet or below. 

Edited by J-ALL-DAY

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5 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I mean it's not like we drafted Pettis/James already who are slender....So it makes sense to bring in a different kind of WR to camp. And like Forge said, probably just the best available guy. We did the same last season with Tim Patrick who was like 6'5. 

You don't have to be big to beat press coverage. Does anyone beat press coverage better than Deandre Hopkins? How many better redzone WRs are there than Hopkins? A big misconception is you have to be a bigger guy to beat press coverage and be at threat in the red zone. Baldwin/Crabtree/Brown/Hopkins are all fantastic red zone WRs and all are barely just over 6 feet or below. 

TY Hilton also not bad at beating the press. 

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On 5/1/2018 at 10:30 AM, Pandomonium said:

The only WR I see on our roster that can consistently beat the jam is Garcon

and I don't think our short yardage run game is going to be better either without a thumper Devante Freeman type of back in our stable.

also Jimmy almost got murdered on the very play you posted he got out of that because of sheer skill, however you can't count on every play to go like this one.

Also, If we don't need a 6'3" WR to be successful in our offense, Then why was this guy given a shot instead of another undersized, slight frame slot style WR that you believe is all we need?

I'm not saying you're wrong man, I just have doubts about your interpretation of Shanny's philosophy ...thats all

 

I mean hell, he had Julio's massive butt out there.

 

 

 

I;ve obviously been wrong about St Brown because he went in the 7th. But if we wanted a big WR I'd have taken him in the 7th. He's not just big body,; he's a big body with a lot of speed. Heck whn he had a decent QB in Kizer he was almost a 1000 yrard receiver. Since I've steadily over-rated him maybe Dunbar will turn out better. At t his point in the drarft, 7 or UDFA, it's justa crap shoot. You see some things you like and you take a shot.

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6 hours ago, big9erfan said:

I;ve obviously been wrong about St Brown because he went in the 7th. But if we wanted a big WR I'd have taken him in the 7th. He's not just big body,; he's a big body with a lot of speed. Heck whn he had a decent QB in Kizer he was almost a 1000 yrard receiver. Since I've steadily over-rated him maybe Dunbar will turn out better. At t his point in the drarft, 7 or UDFA, it's justa crap shoot. You see some things you like and you take a shot.

I think the NFL just decided to collectively underrate big bodied guys all of a sudden. All of them did poorly compared with where everyone thought they'd end up - St. Brown, Cobbs, Tate. None of them are Julio Jones-type players, but they all have some great qualities. The NFL is just changing and the players team prefer are changing. I'd consider having some of these guys try to pack on a few pounds and be a light tight end. That might be the next best hope for that type of player. 

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2 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:

I think the NFL just decided to collectively underrate big bodied guys all of a sudden. All of them did poorly compared with where everyone thought they'd end up - St. Brown, Cobbs, Tate. None of them are Julio Jones-type players, but they all have some great qualities. The NFL is just changing and the players team prefer are changing. I'd consider having some of these guys try to pack on a few pounds and be a light tight end. That might be the next best hope for that type of player. 

I remember reading in a couple of different places that St. Brown, while he has length, never really used it to his advantage and played smaller and softer than expected with his size. The knock on Tate was that he was a large man who couldn't do much of anything but out jump people. He was also considered fairly unathletic. 

From many draft expert sites, this draft was considered a very top-heavy draft with very little worthwhile talent on day 3. For players to fall in this draft, that really says something about their talent levels. 

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