Share Your 53 Man Roster Predictions

[craig]

I think there are three things limiting:

1. Arm strength.  It's not bad, better than Flynn, but not good by NFL standards.  (For a starter at least)
2. Decision-making.  
3. Accuracy

I think both accuracy and decision-making are challenged during the pressure of games, and when throwing on the run etc..  

1 hour ago, palmy50 said:

I don't just give Hundley away. I play that thing out and take the comp pick if he moves on next year.  

Hundley has a shot to remain in the league as a backup, yes.  But I don't expect teams are going to be paying him big money to compete for a starting job, nor big money to play backup.  He'll get a limited contract, which combined with his modest draft status will play the comp formula into a 7th or hopefully 6th round pick, but certainly not a 3rd, 4th, or 5th. 

I'm not sure who he'll be fighting with for the 53rd spot.  But I will argue that I'd rather give away Hundley's shot at a 7th or 6th round comp pick next year than give away 4th or 6th round picks Moore or EQ this year!

The only possible way Hundley would garner better than a 6th is *IF* Rodgers gets smashed again, and *IF* Hundley holds off the better-armed Kizer for the backup spot, and *IF* Hundley plays really well in games and shows better film.  That's a somewhat improbable, and hopefully undesirable, combination of ifs.

[palmy50]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

You really feel it's the arm? Granted no one in the league has Rodgers total arm talent but I've always seen Hundley as above average there. To me it's the head. He knows what he should do, sees it, but then once he's out there he doesn't trust it. I saw him double clutch so many balls he should have fired away last year and either threw late or took sacks. Hundley has always been impressive to me in camp, Mac's done a real nice job with him fundamentally, I just don't know if he'll ever get to the place where he has total trust for the play and WR to let that ball go when it need to.

Hundley will see ghost from time to time, no doubt. Very smart young man though. I'm sure the rest would slow down given reps. Put him in the right environment/system and I don't see it as an issue.

Same with the arm talent really. It's more than good enough pending what your asking of him. There are just too many things on/in Rodgers tree/book that are low percentage throws for Hundley. LIS, there are some playbooks in this league I believe Hundley could run quite well. Hundley's arm strength is good enough to above league average when he's set. The release and accuracy are both a hair below league average though. 

[palmy50]

What are your guy's thoughts on possibly cutting Rip for Tonyan? Sure looks like they are feeding Kendrick's reps in a more traditional H-back role. Many lump FB's and TE's together when it comes to the numbers and one could make a pretty damn strong case for Tonyan over Rip if they wished. 

[JBURGE]

Just now, palmy50 said:

What are your guy's thoughts on possibly cutting Rip for Tonyan? Sure looks like they are feeding Kendrick's reps in a more traditional H-back role. Many lump FB's and TE's together when it comes to the numbers and one could make a pretty damn strong case for Tonyan over Rip if they wished. 

I like Tonyan but Mac likes fullbacks. Are there any backs at this point we trust enough in pass pro to let Rip go?

[palmy50]

1 minute ago, JBURGE said:

I like Tonyan but Mac likes fullbacks. Are there any backs at this point we trust enough in pass pro to let Rip go?

I feel ya on the Mac thing. It was my biggest pause typing it. To answer your question though, Williams is borderline elite in pro and will only get better. Monty is clearly putting in work here as well. Not a plus for Jones or the other young ones though. 

[AlexGreen#20]

19 minutes ago, palmy50 said:

What are your guy's thoughts on possibly cutting Rip for Tonyan? Sure looks like they are feeding Kendrick's reps in a more traditional H-back role. Many lump FB's and TE's together when it comes to the numbers and one could make a pretty damn strong case for Tonyan over Rip if they wished. 

I'd probably prefer the jack of all trades set at that roster spot in Rip, but Tonyan certainly looked the part on Thursday. 

I thought it was interesting that Kendricks got so many reps out of the backfield with the 1s. Wasn't sure if that was preseason or long term.

[JBURGE]

40 minutes ago, palmy50 said:

46 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

I like Tonyan but Mac likes fullbacks. Are there any backs at this point we trust enough in pass pro to let Rip go?

I feel ya on the Mac thing. It was my biggest pause typing it. To answer your question though, Williams is borderline elite in pro and will only get better. Monty is clearly putting in work here as well. Not a plus for Jones or the other young ones though. 

I guess that would work because while Jamaal isn't a real threat as a 3rd down back, he's more of a threat than Rip. If we're going to keep 3 RBs then (2 plus Jones week 3) and 4 tight ends with Tonyan, I'd be cool with that. We could keep one of the RBs for 2 weeks and cut when Jones comes back.

[MacReady]

Lol.  Hundley will "maybe" continue his career as a backup.  Also lol at Hundley not possibly being able to get us a 5th round comp pick and it being a long shot to get us a 6th round comp pick. 

I swear people here think there are 12 good players at every position just floating around in oblivion in the NFL.

Bridewater just signed a 6 million dollar deal and he's had two passes in the past two years.  In the two years he played he had 28 touchdown passes in 28 starts.  Teams aren't even sure on his medical and he got a 6 million dollar deal when he wasn't even a great QB to begin with. 

The Vikings just traded a fifth round pick for Siemian to be a backup. 
The Packers traded a tarting corner with 10 interceptions in 3 years for a no-win backup QB.
The Redskins traded Fuller and a third for Alex Smith.
The Browns traded a third round pick for Tyrod Taylor.
The Jaguars traded a 7th round pick for Kessler.
The Redskins moved down in the sixth round for Hogan.

That's four trades for backup quarterbacks in one offseason alone with two of the backup quarterbacks being awful, worse than Hundley. 

It might be a rumor, but the Seahawks just tried to trade for Jacoby Brisset.  A second round pick for a player who had 4 more touchdowns and 5 less interceptions in 6 more starts than Hundley. 

This isn't a league where backup quarterbacks do what Foles just did.  This is a league where if your QB gets hurt, you hope like hell your backup doesn't suck too much to get you out of a game or two with a solid game plan.  Mike Glennon got 15 million dollars last year and we all know the Bears knew they were drafting a QB.

If we wanted to trade Hundley now, we could probably get a minimum of a sixth round pick for him.  If we wait, we could probably get a minimum of a 6th round compensatory pick for him.  Talk like he's worthless is neglecting the fact that there 32 teams need 2 quarterbacks, ideally with experience, and there aren't 60 quarterbacks in the league who have had the as good experience or production Hundley has. 

[MrBobGray]

1 hour ago, palmy50 said:

What are your guy's thoughts on possibly cutting Rip for Tonyan? Sure looks like they are feeding Kendrick's reps in a more traditional H-back role. Many lump FB's and TE's together when it comes to the numbers and one could make a pretty damn strong case for Tonyan over Rip if they wished. 

I've been on-board this train since Tonyan caught the TD over Edmunds last Thursday, and for exactly this reason.  Kendricks can play the H-back role well enough and the Packers ran the ball much worse in two back sets last year than they did in one back.  I've always had a soft spot for Rip, but his role in the offense is super barebones now, and both Kendricks and Lewis are FA next year.  This TE room is unreal for 2018, but things are going to shift dramatically and I'd like to see what Tonyan has.  I know PS is always an option and probably the right one, but i just don't know that Rip offers enough for me on this team to be worth the trade.  You can see those ex-WR skills in Tonyan's movement, and if time and Lewis can help him shore up the blocking even a bit he could be a nice player.  Rip is what he is, and on a team with three legit HBs I don't know if he has the value for me anymore.

[Cadmus]

1 hour ago, palmy50 said:

What are your guy's thoughts on possibly cutting Rip for Tonyan? Sure looks like they are feeding Kendrick's reps in a more traditional H-back role. Many lump FB's and TE's together when it comes to the numbers and one could make a pretty damn strong case for Tonyan over Rip if they wished. 

1 hour ago, JBURGE said:

I like Tonyan but Mac likes fullbacks. Are there any backs at this point we trust enough in pass pro to let Rip go?

There was a pretty in depth discussion a few (two, I think) years ago about that body type. Mac seems to really like the FB/LB/TE body type not only for STs, but in terms of overall roster composition.

I know that I looked at all of the Packers rosters since Mac has been HC, and IIRC Mac has never entered the season with less than 13 FB/LB/TE bodies on the roster (they've carried up to 16), and the average was ~14.9 per year.

So, what does that mean for this year?

Seems clear to everyone that we'll carry:

3 ILBs: Martinez, Burks, Thomas (maybe Martini instead of Thomas)

5-6 OLBs: Matthews, Perry, Gilbert, Fackrell, Biegel, 1 of Donnerson/Hughes/Odom/FA

1 FB: Ripkowski 

3-4 TEs: Graham, Lewis, Kendricks (had a pretty good camp by all accounts), Tonyan

 

2 important considerations IMHO:

A) 3 ILBs + 6 OLBs + 3 TEs + 1 FB only gets you to 13, which has been the minimum. There's no guarantee they keep 6 OLBs with the current state of the roster, but it's a strong bet with the injury history at that position. 

B) How do the Packers view players that possess that body type and what are they capable of?

- I don't expect to see Graham, Lewis, Matthews, and Perry playing any significant ST snaps.

- Kendricks played limited ST snaps last season.

- Of returning players Rip played the 4th most ST snaps on the roster. However, (#3) Jake Ryan won't be playing STs this season and (#2) Marwin Evans might not make the roster. Janis and Thomas are both gone.

- Finally, how do they view Josh Jones? He was big enough to play LB in dime/nickel, so could he be considered with that LB/TE/FB group (in terms of STs) or not?

 

 

 

[Beast]

1 hour ago, JBURGE said:

I like Tonyan but Mac likes fullbacks. Are there any backs at this point we trust enough in pass pro to let Rip go?

Yeah I believe RB Williams was ranked top 5 in RB pass protection last year of the entire NFL.

Though I still have a hard time seeing MM completely letting the FB go unless the new offensive coaches and changes dictate it.

I personally really like Rip and think he could be a good weapon, but the Packers have (for some reason) refused to use Rip as a weapon, and he's mainly been used as a ST and lead blocker.

But if we're not going to Rip that much, then I'm not sure why we keep him over someone else, say the 7th WR, which might be WR Moore right now, who is really struggling right now but everyone seems to agree has long term potential.

[Cadmus]

Updated 53 Man Roster Prediction from me:

 

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Brett Hundley, DeShone Kizer [3/3]

RB: Ty Montgomery, Jamaal Williams, Aaron Ripkowski (FB) [3/6]

WR: Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Geronimo Allison, J'Mon Moore, Equanimeous St. Brown, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jake Kumerow [7/13]

TE: Jimmy Graham, Marcedes Lewis, Lance Kendricks, Robert Tonyan  [4/17]

OL: David Bakhtiari, Lane Taylor, Corey Linsley, Justin McCray, Bryan Bulaga, Jason Spriggs, Kyle Murphy, Lucas Patrick, Dillon Day [9/26]

DL: Mike Daniels, Muhammad Wilkerson, Kenny Clark, Montravius Adams, Dean Lowry [5/31]

OLB: Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, Reggie Gilbert, Kyler Fackrell, Vince Biegel, Kendall Donnerson [6/37]

ILB: Blake Martinez,  Oren Burks, Ahmad Thomas [3/40]

CB: Kevin King, Tramon Williams, Jaire Alexander, Josh Jackson, Davon House, Herb Waters [6/46]

S: Haha Clinton-Dix, Josh Jones, Kentrell Brice, Jermaine Whitehead  [4/50]

K: Mason Crosby  [1/51]

P: JK Scott [1/52]

LS: Zach Triner [1/53]

 

SUS: Aaron Jones

 

Practice Squad

1) Tim Boyle (QB)

2) LeShun Daniels (RB)

3) DeAngelo Yancey (WR)

4) Adam Pankey (OL)

5) Austin Davis (OL) --> OR OL not on roster (Thompson and Thompson disciples almost always carry at least 2 OL on the PS).

6) James Looney (DL)

7) Joey Mbu (DL)

8) Naashon Hughes (EDGE)

9) Greer Martini (ILB)

10) Donatello Brown (CB)
 

 

Last 6-7 Roster Spots are between:

Aaron Ripkowski

Robert Tonyan

Jake Kumerow

Byron Bell

Dillon Day

Adam Pankey

James Looney

Joey Mbu

Potential 4th ILB (Ahmad Thomas/ Greer Martini)

Quinten Rollins

Herb Waters

Lenzy Pipkins

Kendall Donnerson

Marwin Evans

Chris Odom

 

3 Positions Most Likely to add a FA after cuts:

1) EDGE

2) OL

3) RB

 

[Cheesehawk]

5 minutes ago, Beast said:

Yeah I believe RB Williams was ranked top 5 in RB pass protection last year of the entire NFL.

Though I still have a hard time seeing MM completely letting the FB go unless the new offensive coaches and changes dictate it.

I personally really like Rip and think he could be a good weapon, but the Packers have (for some reason) refused to use Rip as a weapon, and he's mainly been used as a ST and lead blocker.

But if we're not going to Rip that much, then I'm not sure why we keep him over someone else, say the 7th WR, which might be WR Moore right now, who is really struggling right now but everyone seems to agree has long term potential.

They used him when necessary. The fumble in Atlanta didn't help his case. Very untimely. 

[Beast]

5 minutes ago, Cheesehawk said:

They used him when necessary. The fumble in Atlanta didn't help his case. Very untimely. 

Yes very untimely, but the showing that you're still holding that up as the last thing he's basically done shows they haven't really even given him a chance since.

It's been over a year now, they need to either give him another chance or stop wasting everyone's time. Kendrick can probably play H-back role, and Lesis can help run block too.

[MrBobGray]

On a side note, am I the only really high on Pipkins?  I feel like he showed out really well last year in his limited reps, he's had a good camp by all accounts, he's received some strokes for his ST play in preseason, and has generally been a very solid depth player.  He's very strong filling against the run and they've played him on the boundary and the slot.  He's not an elite athlete but I really like what I've seen of him, and I really hope he sticks as the 6th CB.