AlexGreen#20 Posted July 14, 2018 Share Posted July 14, 2018 I wanted to take a closer look at what the pass rush looked like last year and I thought the analysis would be interesting to everyone here. Be warned, it's not encouraging. The Packers recorded 37 sacks last year. The first thing I wanted to look at was how our sacks looked when comparing our usage of the dime package vs standard downs. I started by comparing our sacks and sorting them by down. 1st down: 14 2nd down: 4 3rd down: 19 4th down: 0 We really struggled on 2nd down, and part of tht is caused by teams running more on second down, and teams throwing on favorble down and distances on second down to our defense being very bad on first down, but looking at those numbers was really discourging. We basically needed a team to have it's back against the wall to be able to get consistent pressure. Of the four sacks that we had on second down, they came from distances of 5 yards, 6 yards, 10 yards, and 17 yards. Half of our second down sacks came on dime downs. Ugly. +++ Next I wanted to look at the sacks by personnel groupings. I counted Morgan Burnett as a defensive back. I know some will argue that's not a proper way of evaluating it, but I'm not going to change a man's position distinction after forever with the team. Regardless it paints a rough picture. Base: 8 Nickel: 8 Dime: 21 This defense could not finish without six defensive backs on the field, almost exclusively in coverage. They could not win without being able to pin their ears back and go. Somebody on this team needs to be able to play the run while getting to the QB. In fairness, the defense did average 5.21 DBs per play, so they played a lot of dime defense, but nowhere near enough to make the lack of pressure and sacks on standard downs acceptable. +++ When you break down the sacks by player you get: Clay: 8 Perry: 7 Daniels: 5 Clark: 4 Fackrell: 3 Lowry: 2 Jones: 2 Brooks: 2 Ryan: 2 House: 1 Burnett: 1 Martinez: 1 Thomas: 1 Gilbert: 1 Biegel: 1 24 sacks out of the starting front four isn't bad, but it isn't great. We need Clay and Perry to step it up next year. The biggest issue we have with the sacks is the lack of production from Fackrell and Lowry. You can't have yoru 3rd OLB and 3rd DL combining for 5 sacks. That's just unacceptable, you need more out of those two spots. Both guys had most of their production out of free runs anyway. Tht can't be how it works. They need to be able to win. +++ Most of these probably didn't upload to imgur, but I captioned the ones I had. +++ The Bears come out in a 12 Personnel here, and the Packers respond with their base 30 front. Because the Bears are a bad football team, they decide that rather than block Kenny Clark with just their Center, they’re going to bring a double team down, leaving Clay Matthews isolated against the Tight End. This has predictable results as Clay eats the Tight End for lunch causing the sack fumble. Jake Ryan is reading the Tight End waiting for him to go out and run a route. When he sees that the Tight End is actually going to stay in and block he shoots the gap and scoops up the loose fumble. Play +++ The Bears come out in their 21 personel here. The Packers respond with their base 40 front. The Bears are trying to sell a play action power lead play here and they do a great job of it. The receiver playing the wingback role shoots across the formation at the snap and Perry comes off his line to pressure Trubisky. If Trubisky isn’t one of the worst QBs in the NFL, he dumps it down to his primary option and gets the first down here. Lucky for the Packers, Trubisky wastes precious half-seconds spying the rush and instead chooses to eat the sack. Again, because the Bears are terrible. Play +++ The Bears come out in the 10 personnel, and the Packers come with their coverage dime look. rookie Running Backs make mistakes blocking and rookie QBs make mistakes in reading blitzes. The Packer brought an overload blitz from the right side of the offense. Either the Tackle or the Running Back need to come off of the first man through in Josh Jones and pickup Davon House. Neither do, Trubisky doesn’t release the ball to the side where 2 DBs evacuated and the result is a sack. Play +++ The Bears come out in their 11 personnel look and the Packers come out in their dime coverage look again. Nick Perry and Mike Daniels are well blocked here, but the Bears do a poor job of working the stunt pulled off by Clay Matthews and Ahmad Brooks. Trubisky checks the one read that he’s capable of checking per play, sees the rush and scoots forward to try and get some more yards. Perry cleans it up and earns himself a hustle sack. Play +++ If the first half of the season had any kind of pattern to it pass rushing wise, it was that the Packers were basically incapable of getting any kind of pressure out of their standard looks without multiple screw ups by the opponent. The pressure/coverage packages however were productive. Josh Jones has his best play of the year here and shows some good rush skills. The way he subtly sells up field and then comes back in to beat Tyler Kroft is encouraging, even if Tyler Kroft is terrible. Play +++ Ahmad Brooks does a nice job of selling this. He looks like he’s going to blow into the Bengals Right Tackle (Jake Fihser) before cutting it and giving Josh Jones space to run by. Jones comes in completely untouched as does Burnett from the other side. Somehow neither of the Bengals Tackles blocked a man despite two exterior blitzers meeting at the QB. Dreadful offensive line communication by the Bengals. Play +++ Ahmad Brooks has his best play of the season here. Jake Fisher is entirely overmanned at Tackle and it shows with some really terrible pass pro technique here. Brooks just loops right around him and gets the sack on Dalton. This is the sort of dreadful technique coaches should be getting on Varsity high school tackles about, yuck. Play +++ Kyler Fackrell gets a clean up sack here blitzing from the Inside Linebacker role in the dime group. The coverage was outstanding on the Browns intramural quality wide receiving group and Josh Gordon here. Clay manages to flush Deshon Kizer from the pocket. Mike Daniels keeps him contained and Kyler Fackrell manages to fall on him. Play +++ Kenny Clark starts this play double teamed by the Center and the Right Guard. The Right Guard sees Dean Lowry angling into the B gap and leaves Clark thinking that the Center has him controlled. The Center sees Ryan blitzing and comes off Clark to block Ryan. Clark takes advantage of being blocked by nobody and gets after Jameis Winston who (in typical Jameis Winston fashion) threw the ball backwards into the hands of a defender leading to a score. https://i.imgur.com/kM80MxG.gif +++ Caleb Benenoch is a mediocre Guard and an absolutely terrible Tackle who was asked to play Right Tackle against the Packers because of injury. Clay Matthews ate his lunch. https://i.imgur.com/LqohCKM.gif +++ Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark simply moved three offensive linemen into the backfield forcing Jameis Winston to tuck the ball and start looking for an escape plan. Clay slid off of Benenoch before he found it and cleaned up for the sack. It’s nice seeing a defensive line with some serious juice even if it is against the dreadful Bucs offensive line. Daniels especially here made a play. https://i.imgur.com/hsr0vKh.gif +++ Tyron Smith was a wreck with injuries in 2017 but Nick Perry made him look dumb here scoring the strip sack. When Perry uses his hands to rip through, his speed rush counter can be effective. It’s just not a primary move. https://i.imgur.com/pUWaYyg.gif +++ Devonta Freeman completely missed the call here letting Blake Martinez blitz completely untouched. https://i.imgur.com/ABtic38.gif +++ In what was probably the only instance of good coverage the Packers had all night, Matt Ryan couldn’t find a target and the Falcons handled the Packers stunt along the right side very poorly. Clay gets essentially a free lane to the QB here. https://i.imgur.com/SmvaZxc.gif +++ Nick Perry and Dean Lowry team up on a sack on a busted flea-flicker. https://i.imgur.com/1Nv5sPD.gif +++ Vince Biegel and Mike Daniels show some very poor timing on this stunt look here, but Mike Daniels is able to beat his man even without the element of surprise. Good coverage on the back end kept this play in the pocket, a braver QB may have cut this loose. https://i.imgur.com/EdvdySo.gif +++ Kenny Clark gets the sack here, but Vince Biegel deserves some credit here. The way he sets the outside spin move up with the inside jab step is good stuff. That’s a veteran move. He flushes Cam up, and Clay is working inside leaving Cam with only one space to go and Clark stays active. Clark’s most underrated skillset is his awareness of the pocket. He is really really good at knowing where the QB is while he’s fighting with guys. https://i.imgur.com/tyxtEIK.gif +++ Vince Biegel gets a free rush to the pocket here and sends Alex Collins flying when the back tries to stop him. Dean Lowry has a nice rush here. He gets the Austin Howard (Right Tackle) on skates and drives him backwards. The Right Tackles feet get tangled up with the Right Guard and both guts meet at the QB. This was Lowry’s best play of the season. https://i.imgur.com/zrFavKj.gif +++ Austin Howard is a terrible Tackle, but Kyler Fackrell does an actual NFL pass rusher thing. Maybe, just maybe? https://i.imgur.com/6tVwmzm.gif +++ It’s never good when a bad guard is forced into playing Left Tackle and that’s what happens here. Clay whips James Hurst for the sack and Ahmad Brooks isn’t far behind on beating Austin Howard. This Ravens offensive line was beat to hell with injuries. https://i.imgur.com/6hSCHFo.gif +++ The “Nick Perry bulrushes his man into the feet of the man blocking Mike Daniels” pass rush strategy is one of my favorite things the Packers did this year. It lead to three sacks on the year, though one was not counted due to a holding call. It’s good to see a Packer hit a QB hard. https://i.imgur.com/RWLf48v.gif +++ Mike Daniels is a bad man and he shows it here. He didn’t need Nick Perry to clean it up, but he got it anyway. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a Packer defender dominate a game as thoroughly as Daniels did against the Seahawks, https://i.imgur.com/AOX53jl.gif +++ Here we see another example of Nick Perry bullrushing his man into the feet of the man blocking Mike Daniels. There’s something to be said for having your two best rushers on the same side of the line so they can play off of each other. https://i.imgur.com/AnCBp4U.gif +++ Mike Daniels https://i.imgur.com/5VDROeh.gif +++ Straight coverage sack here. Well blocked by the Steelers, Daniels eventually tracks it down and gets the hustle sack. https://i.imgur.com/UoFbo9c.gif +++ I love Kenny Clark’s awareness. He deserves the stat on this one. He sniffs out the screen, keeps it contained and then breaks off to keep Keenum inbounds. Great heads up play by Clark. He is everything you could ask for in a young Big. https://i.imgur.com/UUFwc7s.gif +++ Case Keenum turned the wrong way on playaction, (and still half our team fell for it, jesus) Fackrell read it right and contained the outside on the bootleg. Blake Martinez got through on his middle blitz and the two managed to bring Keenum down. https://i.imgur.com/5sJfPVS.gif +++ Really good coverage here. Reggie Gilbert and Kyler Fackrell collapse the pocket and Kenny Clark gets the hustle sack as he ran all the way around the pocket. Fackrell and Gilbert playing the same snap on a regular down is nauseating even while tanking. https://i.imgur.com/6xhkyvY.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OneTwoSixFive Posted July 14, 2018 Share Posted July 14, 2018 I understand why you broke down sacks, as it is an indicator of what is happening on the field. Where it is muddy, is sacks (achieved by any individual player) are not necessarily achieved in proportion to hurries/re-directs/interceptions and incompletions that they cause. Even the best sack artists would be having a terrific season if they got just one sack per game. It took a great deal of effort to detail everything you did, and kudos to you for that. I love that level of detail and analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golfman Posted July 14, 2018 Share Posted July 14, 2018 This analysis is why I was shocked we didn't go pass rusher at #10. Now, after week 1 when Mike Daniels absolutely dominated he was nursing leg problems all year. That changed the whole dynamic of our pass rush, I'll give people that. I think he was set to move into the upper echelon of defensive linemen. Clark made strides and Wilkerson is out to prove people wrong. Given all of that we still don't have a guy who steps up behind Perry and Matthews. Matthews isn't the same guy. Neither can stay healthy for 16 games and even if they did they need breathers now and again. A solid, consistent pass rush is the one thing that could derail this defense in 2018 IMO. Better play in the secondary will help, but you can't cover for ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 20 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said: The biggest issue we have with the sacks is the lack of production from Fackrell and Lowry. You can't have yoru 3rd OLB and 3rd DL combining for 5 sacks. That's just unacceptable, you need more out of those two spots. Both guys had most of their production out of free runs anyway. Tht can't be how it works. They need to be able to win. Agreed but they cant win 99% of the time, and everyone knew that going in. Fackrell and Lowry are JAGs, neither one should be a No. 3 guy at their position. Added Mo to push Lowry down into that 4-5 spot on the depth chart where he belongs (hopefully Adams pushes him for PT as well), but still have an EDGE issue at No. 3 unless Biegel or Gilbert take a big step up or we add a guy. Tried Brooks last year and it just didnt work because of his injuries and that left us razor thin at a position where our 2 starters are constantly banged up. I mean we should start a poll on what week Perry will break his hand and need a club... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 58 minutes ago, packfanfb said: Agreed but they cant win 99% of the time, and everyone knew that going in. Fackrell and Lowry are JAGs, neither one should be a No. 3 guy at their position. Added Mo to push Lowry down into that 4-5 spot on the depth chart where he belongs (hopefully Adams pushes him for PT as well), but still have an EDGE issue at No. 3 unless Biegel or Gilbert take a big step up or we add a guy. Tried Brooks last year and it just didnt work because of his injuries and that left us razor thin at a position where our 2 starters are constantly banged up. I mean we should start a poll on what week Perry will break his hand and need a club... Are there different tiers of JAG status? If there is, I would put Lowry in a higher tier than Fackrell. We are paper thin at the pass rusher position. It is a pretty safe bet that the back-ups will make 4ish starts. But the DL and DBs look to be improved. Hopefully that masks some of the deficiencies and we can make a concerted effort to improve the position next year. I think adding Brooks was the right idea last season, it just didn't work out. We also don't know what the teaming of Gute and Pettine has in store. Just looking at available free agents, there are still some vets that may have a little juice left if our guys look like they don't have it in camp, not a long term solution but could be a band-aid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 7 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said: Are there different tiers of JAG status? If there is, I would put Lowry in a higher tier than Fackrell. We are paper thin at the pass rusher position. It is a pretty safe bet that the back-ups will make 4ish starts. But the DL and DBs look to be improved. Hopefully that masks some of the deficiencies and we can make a concerted effort to improve the position next year. I think adding Brooks was the right idea last season, it just didn't work out. We also don't know what the teaming of Gute and Pettine has in store. Just looking at available free agents, there are still some vets that may have a little juice left if our guys look like they don't have it in camp, not a long term solution but could be a band-aid. I agree Lowry is a tier higher but not really as a pass rusher. Lowry is a solid rotation guy for your Dline, but he's never going to offer much from a rush standpoint. I too agreed with the Brooks move. Not all moves work but they are still good moves. We need another "Brooks" move at EDGE before Week 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craig Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 On 7/14/2018 at 12:36 PM, AlexGreen#20 said: The biggest issue we have with the sacks is the lack of production from Fackrell and Lowry. You can't have yoru 3rd OLB and 3rd DL combining for 5 sacks. That's just unacceptable, you need more out of those two spots. Both guys had most of their production out of free runs anyway. Tht can't be how it works. They need to be able to win. Thanks for great research and thorough analysis, nice work! Really appreciate it. If the largest issue is Fackrell and Lowry, there is good reason to be hopeful. Fackrell may be entirely replaced in terms of snaps. He may be 6th on the OLB depth chart, or may not make the roster at all. Whether any of Gilbert, Biegel, or Odom can replace his snaps and be meaningfully more productive, of course, who knows. Lowry could get displaced down a step by Wilkerson, plus Daniels might hypothetically be healthy for a greater chunk of the season, so it's reasonable that even if Lowry does NOT improve, that they'll have other guys who can pick up some of his snaps. I think lots of other concerns, wth guys who are going to need to play lots and lots of snaps. Hope somehow it plays out a lot better this year. Coverage sacks are surely a thing; I'm hoping we get a lot more of those? Suspect it's going to need to be a team thing. Every group impacts the others. Pressure from one side can push a guy into the arms of rush from the other side. Pressure middle can give time for the outsides to get to QB. Coverage gives more time for rush. So kinda think we need improvements from every aspect, inside guys, OLB, secondary, the whole composite. HOpefully that will happen for both the coaching and the safety play as well. Seemed so common that a QB could drop it off to somebody under the middle kinda easily, even if pressure from outside did come pretty strong. But HaHa seemed to play so super deep and give such large cushions over the middle. Hopefully HaHa and the scheme plays much tighter and more aggressively against those short underneath passes, without getting burned deep too badly and too often in consequence. Hope springs eternal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 14 hours ago, packfanfb said: I agree Lowry is a tier higher but not really as a pass rusher. Lowry is a solid rotation guy for your Dline, but he's never going to offer much from a rush standpoint. I too agreed with the Brooks move. Not all moves work but they are still good moves. We need another "Brooks" move at EDGE before Week 1. Lowry wasn't drafted to be starter material, but he's put in some good work and stepped up last year. Still, he has a lower ceiling which is why we brought in Mo. That addition was essentially why we didn't go pass rush at 10 IMHO. We do need to make a move sometime within the next couple of weeks. I'll throw Dumervil's name out there again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donzo Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 On 7/14/2018 at 1:36 PM, AlexGreen#20 said: 24 sacks out of the starting front four isn't bad, but it isn't great. We need Clay and Perry to step it up next year. The biggest issue we have with the sacks is the lack of production from Fackrell and Lowry. You can't have yoru 3rd OLB and 3rd DL combining for 5 sacks. That's just unacceptable, you need more out of those two spots. Both guys had most of their production out of free runs anyway. Tht can't be how it works. They need to be able to win +++ Vince Biegel gets a free rush to the pocket here and sends Alex Collins flying when the back tries to stop him. Dean Lowry has a nice rush here. He gets the Austin Howard (Right Tackle) on skates and drives him backwards. The Right Tackles feet get tangled up with the Right Guard and both guts meet at the QB. This was Lowry’s best play of the season. https://i.imgur.com/zrFavKj.gif +++ Austin Howard is a terrible Tackle, but Kyler Fackrell does an actual NFL pass rusher thing. Maybe, just maybe? https://i.imgur.com/6tVwmzm.gif +++ Case Keenum turned the wrong way on playaction, (and still half our team fell for it, jesus) Fackrell read it right and contained the outside on the bootleg. Blake Martinez got through on his middle blitz and the two managed to bring Keenum down. https://i.imgur.com/5sJfPVS.gif +++ Really good coverage here. Reggie Gilbert and Kyler Fackrell collapse the pocket and Kenny Clark gets the hustle sack as he ran all the way around the pocket. Fackrell and Gilbert playing the same snap on a regular down is nauseating even while tanking. https://i.imgur.com/6xhkyvY.gif Shees, not your best stuff. Too much agenda and not enough unbiased analysis. Still, appreciate the work. First, still bellyaching about Lowry- really? I thought that nonsense was shot down in an earlier thread. Remember the comparison with other 3rd best DL's in 3/4 defenses, and the breakdown of how much PT Lowry got as the 3rd DL in the Packer's defense last year?!? Are you confusing Brooks with Fackrell as the Packers 3rd OLB in 2017? Fackrell was awful, for a couple reasons to start 2017, then solid to good the last seven games. Those last seven games tells more about what to expect from him in 2018 than his season numbers. What where Lowry and Fackrell's ratio of plays on free runs and how does that compare to the mean?... Nice work on pointing out plays made not on free runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted July 16, 2018 Author Share Posted July 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Donzo said: Shees, not your best stuff. Too much agenda and not enough unbiased analysis. Still, appreciate the work. First, still bellyaching about Lowry- really? I thought that nonsense was shot down in an earlier thread. Remember the comparison with other 3rd best DL's in 3/4 defenses, and the breakdown of how much PT Lowry got as the 3rd DL in the Packer's defense last year?!? Are you confusing Brooks with Fackrell as the Packers 3rd OLB in 2017? Fackrell was awful, for a couple reasons to start 2017, then solid to good the last seven games. Those last seven games tells more about what to expect from him in 2018 than his season numbers. What where Lowry and Fackrell's ratio of plays on free runs and how does that compare to the mean?... Nice work on pointing out plays made not on free runs. You want your 3rd guy to be good in one facet. Lowry isn't. The overall quality of player is fine, but the lack of fit on the team wasn't. You never put him in the game and feel good about it. Both Brooks and Fackrell took reps as the#3 last year. Both were dreadful. In no period of one game could Fackrell be fairly described as "good". To claim that he reached that stays over a half season is laughable. "Not terrible" is probably about as far as anyone should go with it. I believe both guys had one sack that wasn't on a free play. Fackrell on an inside move against Austin Howard. Lowry . . . I can't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donzo Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 Complete awfulness there- wow... LIS, your Lowry hate was disproved earlier this summer. No matter how much nonsense you spin up, it's all BS... And has been established, Lowry isn't the Packers 3rd DL this year. "In no period of one game could Fackrell be fairly described as "good""... One of the worst takes I've seen on this board. Oh, how about the Ravens game in November? Just not gonna dive into anymore of the nonsense here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 32 minutes ago, Donzo said: Complete awfulness there- wow... LIS, your Lowry hate was disproved earlier this summer. No matter how much nonsense you spin up, it's all BS... And has been established, Lowry isn't the Packers 3rd DL this year. "In no period of one game could Fackrell be fairly described as "good""... One of the worst takes I've seen on this board. Oh, how about the Ravens game in November? Just not gonna dive into anymore of the nonsense here... Lowry's Sacks https://imgur.com/1Nv5sPD A non sack on a busted flea-flicker https://imgur.com/zrFavKj Beat Austin Howard on a bull rush, he tripped on his own player, but Lowry pushed him into his teammate so we'll give him full credit. https://imgur.com/Y15jqUy Literally unblocked That's our #3 DL on about 300 rushes Fackrell's Sacks https://imgur.com/6tVwmzm Beat Austin Howard, https://imgur.com/5sJfPVS A play action containment on a play the QB turned the wrong way in his fake. https://imgur.com/pZvLGKL A hustle sack when flushed from the pocket after two other guys got pressure. That's it man. That's our #3 edge rusher on something like 275 rushes. Unless we're going to be playing against Austin Howard a lot this year, there's every reason to be skeptical of these two dudes. A well built team pulls the NT for another rusher and then has the option to pull their weaker coverage backer for either an extra cover guy or an extra rusher. Neither Lowry nor Fackrell are an acceptable option to put in for the pressure package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 Here's the Wilkerson sack reel: https://i.imgur.com/ovc0b9a.gifv Clean up sack, only guy not getting pressure https://i.imgur.com/PYOZwjD.gifv I'll give it to him, more of a team sack, but we'll acknowledge it. https://imgur.com/X2XEYoy Coverage sack/group sack https://i.imgur.com/wtpakPi.gifv Truly inspiring stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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