Jump to content
Brit Pack

Do you sell the Hundley stock while it is high?

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Brit Pack said:

I bet it will be our luck that Hundley steps it up further and totally outperforms Kizer. Then we are stuck between a rock and a hard place!

We traded away a former #1 pick to Cleveland for Kizer.  He'd have to be really terrible to not make the team.  I suspect MM and Gute are hoping Hundley plays well enough to garner interest in a trade later this summer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

You'll get a 5th/6th round comp for him next year when someone signs him to be their backup. Don't necessarily have to move him now.

Do you really think someone will sign him at veteran prices? and he'll make the roster?

Also 7th round comp is more like it, because 5th round is like $6 million per year... and because comp picks factor in playing time... the Packers basically lost a comp pick for Center Scott Wells because he got a season ending injury (and because Center Jeff Saturday made the pro-bowl, the combo of the two make the Packers comp pick for Wells disappear).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Pugger said:

We traded away a former #1 pick to Cleveland for Kizer.  He'd have to be really terrible to not make the team.  I suspect MM and Gute are hoping Hundley plays well enough to garner interest in a trade later this summer.

Where someone was selected doesn't matter after their rookie year. DB Randall was a problem in the Packers locker room, and the Packers veteran player committee reportedly asked the Packers to release Randall during the year to get him out of their locker room. They waited in an attempt to trade him for whatever they could get for him. They also got to move up in the draft as they swapped picks during the deal.

I agree, everyone is hoping that Hundley plays well enough to get a draft pick in a trade, but it'll probably but a late draft pick at best.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not saying Hundley is getting a big contract or that he'll go for a 4th round pick or anything, but people are SERIOUSLY undervaluing playing experience at the QB position in meaningful regular season games. 

32 teams.  16 games a season.  That's 512 starts. 

That's 64 quarterbacks to split 512 starts every year. 

Just think that 8 games, 5 starts over three seasons got Mike Glennon 15 million dollars a year. 

We all think he sucks and won't sign for anything, but that's because we watched him play and went from Rodgers to him.  As always, the biggest problem with things here is lack of perspective.  People don't stop to consider how bad things are at positions for other teams. 

They complain about Clay Matthews.  16 teams in the league would kill for Matthews to be one/two starters at pass rusher. 

They complain about Hundley as a backup when teams like the Rams have Mannion. 

I could go on, but eh.  Hundley will get a good deal to sign as a backup for someone else.  Especially if that someone else plans on drafting a QB in round one and needs some insurance in case that first round QB isn't ready by the start of the season. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I'm not saying Hundley is getting a big contract or that he'll go for a 4th round pick or anything, but people are SERIOUSLY undervaluing playing experience at the QB position in meaningful regular season games. 

32 teams.  16 games a season.  That's 512 starts. 

That's 64 quarterbacks to split 512 starts every year. 

Just think that 8 games, 5 starts over three seasons got Mike Glennon 15 million dollars a year.

I get what you're saying, but there are two other factors as well to playing experience, and those are talent and hype (hype doesn't help you play, but it does help you get a better over valued contract)... and at the moment Hundley has neither of these (as far as the NFL goes). Don't get me wrong, Hundley can throw the ball... until he takes a hit, and then he starts struggling.

Mike Glennon always had a lot of hype because he's 6'6" and has a powerful arm. I'm not sure why, but tall and powerful arm gets you hype at QB, even if you can't aim. I'm still shocked Logan Thomas got drafted as a QB at all... he really struggled at aiming, but TE size and rocket arm got him drafted in the 4th round... but teams for some reason strongly believe they can take tall and strong arms and coach up their footwork  and throwing motion and teach them to aim.

Also helping Glennon's hype is that he never really got a shot to play after his rookie season, as Lovie Smith came in and preferred a veteran and then they drafted Jameis Winston with the 1st overall selection... and then the Bucs reportedly turned down multiple high round trade offers, all of which helped Glennon's hype. Where Hundley killed his hype by playing so poorly last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Pugger said:

We traded away a former #1 pick to Cleveland for Kizer.  He'd have to be really terrible to not make the team.  I suspect MM and Gute are hoping Hundley plays well enough to garner interest in a trade later this summer.

A guy who many considered a bust who also only had 1 year left on his deal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Without reading all of the back pages... Hundley has zippy trade value.  Last year of his deal and not good enough to start for anyone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@whoever said hype... Glennon had zero hype, less starts over the past two years.  

Hundley will net us a comp pick for certain.  Not a big one for sure, but definitely one.

@snackattack, look through the offseason and see how many quarterbacks were traded this year with less experience than Hundley to be purely backups.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

@whoever said hype... Glennon had zero hype, less starts over the past two years.  

Hundley will net us a comp pick for certain.  Not a big one for sure, but definitely one.

@snackattack, look through the offseason and see how many quarterbacks were traded this year with less experience than Hundley to be purely backups.  

Unless i'm missing some, there haven't been too many and all except for maybe Hackenburg had multiple years left on their deals.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Glennon had zero hype

That's just plain false. Bucs reportedly turned down multiple trade offers for Glennon.

40 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Hundley will net us a comp pick for certain.  Not a big one for sure, but definitely one.

You know comp picks are awards for dollar per years based on the next contract and playtime time mixed right? ... also if a GM signs someone they can lose equal value, right?

So you're saying that Hundley, as a back-up will get a decent contract, he'll then play... and Gute isn't going to many FAs.

Example: The signing of Williams wipes out the comp pick for SS Burnett... and Graham CLEARLY wipes out Janis' comp pick potential. So there are lots of ways not to get a comp pick here.

 

Edit: QB Nick Foles is the only QB I see that got a comp pick last year. Chase Daniels was the only one for 2016, where the Packers missed out on Scott Tolzien getting a comp pick. You might be right, but the odds is very much against that Hundley will be the one QB (on average) that gets a comp pick for his former team.

Edited by Beast

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Beast said:

You know comp picks are awards for dollar per years based on the next contract and playtime time mixed right? ... also if a GM signs someone they can lose equal value, right?

So you're saying that Hundley, as a back-up will get a decent contract, he'll then play... and Gute isn't going to many FAs.

Example: The signing of Williams wipes out the comp pick for SS Burnett... and Graham CLEARLY wipes out Janis' comp pick potential. So there are lots of ways not to get a comp pick here.

 

Edit: QB Nick Foles is the only QB I see that got a comp pick last year. Chase Daniels was the only one for 2016, where the Packers missed out on Scott Tolzien getting a comp pick. You might be right, but the odds is very much against that Hundley will be the one QB (on average) that gets a comp pick for his former team.

It's based almost exclusively on AAV, playing time really doesn't count much for anything.  Based on OTC's projections, the baseline for a comp pick will be ~$2M.  This past offseason, we saw 12 QBs get an AAV of at least $2M.  The year before, there were 10 QBs.  I haven't dug too far into next year's FA QB class, but it stands to reason that Hundley should get at least $2M.

And you have to remember, it's a net gain/loss.  The Packers have Clay Matthews, Randall Cobb, Muhammad Wilkerson, HHCD, and Marcedes Lewis who could all get FAs.  They're all likely to get more than Hundley, so the Packers could in theory land a comp pick for losing Hundley.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

It's based almost exclusively on AAV, playing time really doesn't count much for anything.  Based on OTC's projections, the baseline for a comp pick will be ~$2M.  This past offseason, we saw 12 QBs get an AAV of at least $2M.  The year before, there were 10 QBs.  I haven't dug too far into next year's FA QB class, but it stands to reason that Hundley should get at least $2M.

And you have to remember, it's a net gain/loss.  The Packers have Clay Matthews, Randall Cobb, Muhammad Wilkerson, HHCD, and Marcedes Lewis who could all get FAs.  They're all likely to get more than Hundley, so the Packers could in theory land a comp pick for losing Hundley.

In theory anything can happen... in reality your points are making the case of why Hundley is less likely to get a comp pick.

According to you, the last two years 22 QBs qualified to get get a comp pick... how but many actually got it? From my count, 2. That's a 9% chance, if he qualifies, he'll get a comp pick. Also there is a limited of 4 comp picks... so with the 5 better players you mentioned (and more that you didn't), there is a possible even smaller chance.

 

And you claim playing time doesn't count much for anything, but Wells losing playing time and Saturday getting to the Pro-Bowl cost us a 6th round comp pick for Wells... and pure NTs have consistently under performed their AAV and no one can explain why except NTs can less playing time, because it's a passing and pass rush league.

 

Just checking, is there a QB in this outside of Nick Foles and Chase Daniels?

https://overthecap.com/projecting-2018-compensatory-picks/

https://overthecap.com/projecting-2017-compensatory-draft-picks/

Edited by Beast
Expanded a little

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Beast said:

In theory anything can happen... in reality your points are making the case of why Hundley is less likely to get a comp pick.

According to you, the last two years 22 QBs qualified to get get a comp pick... how but many actually got it? From my count, 2. That's a 9% chance, if he qualifies, he'll get a comp pick. Also there is a limited of 4 comp picks... so with the 5 better players you mentioned (and more that you didn't), there is a possible even smaller chance.

 

And you claim playing time doesn't count much for anything, but Wells losing playing time and Saturday getting to the Pro-Bowl cost us a 6th round comp pick for Wells... and pure NTs have consistently under performed their AAV and no one can explain why except NTs can less playing time, because it's a passing and pass rush league.

 

Just checking, is there a QB in this outside of Nick Foles and Chase Daniels?

https://overthecap.com/projecting-2018-compensatory-picks/

https://overthecap.com/projecting-2017-compensatory-draft-picks/

Look at the net gain/loss, not so much the player themselves.  How many of the QBs who would have qualified for a comp pick were scratched out because that team signed a FA of a similar AAV?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

Look at the net gain/loss, not so much the player themselves.  How many of the QBs who would have qualified for a comp pick were scratched out because that team signed a FA of a similar AAV?

Your point is true... but you're changing the claim and moving the goal post to a different spot. I can agree with your point, but not the original claim.

The claim was NOT that Hundley would qualify for a comp pick

The claim was that he would get a comp pick for the Packers. (See below)

1 hour ago, Outpost31 said:

Hundley will net us a comp pick for certain.  Not a big one for sure, but definitely one.

 This seems to be about actually getting a comp pick... not just qualifying for one.

And heck, we don't even know if Hundley will make the 53 man roster this year... if he's released then he doesn't even qualify at all for the Packers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Brit Pack said:

I bet it will be our luck that Hundley steps it up further and totally outperforms Kizer. Then we are stuck between a rock and a hard place!

That sounds more like being stuck between a pillow and a bag of cotton candy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×